The BCS and NFL Playoffs are becoming clear.

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Wilson Football

In college games I went 8-1 bringing the season total to 31-15.

In pro games against the spread I went 1-4 bringing the total to 20-12.

College football:

#1 Oregon 15 California 13 – The Ducks ducked a close call to continue on the road to the BcS game. They survived to play #22 Arizona at home this week and at Oregon State next.

#2 Auburn 49 Georgia 31 – Tiger QB Newton played very well accounting for 4 scores. The Auburn D is a problem particularly in a possible game against a O like Oregon’s. Auburn will play #11 Alabama next week and #17 South Carolina in the SEC Championship game.

#3 TCU 40 San Diego St. 35 – TCU lost some ground against Boise with a close game against a good SDS team. They have no chance to recover that ground with only the 1 win New Mexico State team left on the schedule.

#4 Boise St. 52 Idaho 14 – Boise is in the best shape to sneak into the Big game if one of the top 2 fall. They have 6-3 Fresno State, #18 Nevada, and 4-6 Utah State.

#5 LSU 51 La. Monroe 0 – LSU has Mississippi and #13 Arkansas on the schedule.

#6 Stanford 17 Arizona St. 13 – Stanford will face Cal and Oregon St. If they play the way they did against a 2-6 Arizona St. team they will lose at Cal next week.

Pro football:

Vick looked great against the Redskins Monday night. They will move up in the FPS Top team list.

Stick a fork in the turkey known as the Vikings. They are done. This team is self-destructing and will be totally reworked next year.

The Browns have found their QB of the present and maybe of the future in McCoy. Check out what I had to say about him in the NFLDraftDog.com Browns team page.

The Colts are banged up and not blowing out anyone. Even so, they have climbed back on top of the AFC South and will be a tough playoff out because they still have Manning.

The Dolphins have lost both QB Henne and Pennington. This team is done for the year but has gotten younger. They will be a force next year.

The 49ers have found their QB for the present and it is Smith–Troy Smith the FA from Baltimore not Alex Smith the 1st round pick a couple of years ago. Troy threw for 356 yards and a TD without a pick last week against the Rams.

The Redskins signed QB McNabb to a 5 year extension. This is more about keeping control of his services in 2011 than anything else. He got 10M guaranteed and 78-88M over the contract with incentives which he probably won’t be able to meet. The Redskins want to keep him because he would get a big offer in free agency next season because so many teams need QBs.

Top 5

1. Patriots – The win over the Steelers was a statement game and got them the top spot despite a loss last week against the Browns.

2. Jets – They got lucky against the Browns to win in overtime. But I still don’t think this team is as good as the Pats.

3. Steelers – The AFC North is a tough division. The Steelers lost to the Pats this week but this is still a good team. They need to shore up the O line and DBs.

4. Falcons – The Birds beat the Ravens with a great comeback. This team is on the rise and QB Ryan is outstanding.

5. Ravens – This team is still very solid and will move up soon.

Dropped out: Giants – They got crushed by the Eagles and QB Vick.

Just out of the top 5: Eagles – If Vick stays healthy and the D continues to play this well, they could make the NFC Championship game.

Bottom 5

28. Cowgirls – One win with a new coach is nice but you have to prove it over the rest of the season.

29. Broncos – The win over the Chiefs was one fraud beating another.

30. Cardinals – “QB? QB? We don’t need no stinking QB!”

31. Panthers – That is what you get for drafting a QB out of Notre Dame.

32. Bills – They finally won a game but it could be the last one for a while.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits https://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits .

A bad weekend for good College and NFL games.

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College:

#1 Oregon @ California – Cal struggled with Washington State last week 20-13 but plays better at home. That said it does not play well enough to make this a game. That’s OK because no one will see it because the game is on Verses. Oregon continues to win and gets this one easily.

Georgia @ #2 Auburn – Georgia is playing a little better than in earlier in the season. They have won 4 out of their last 5 but that stops Saturday. Georgia’s best hope it that Auburn is looking past them to next weeks game with Alabama. Auburn wins if Newton plays but not as big as you might think. If Newton does not play, the Bulldogs win. In any case this game will be pulled off the board at Vegas.

San Diego State @ #3 TCU – SDS is the last chance for a team to beat TCU. Next week TCU gets 1 win New Mexico State. SDS is a solid team at 7-2 but does not have enough speed to play with TCU. TCU wins and finishes the perfect season next week with a win over NMS.

Penn State @ #9 Ohio State – PS got win 400 last week. Ohio State may be looking forward to the Big game next week at Iowa but wins this one. It could be close.

#10 Oklahoma State @ Texas – Texas is 4-5 and needs a win here or in 2 weeks against Texas A&M plus an expected W against Florida Atlantic to get to a bowl game. Texas won’t get the win here. Ok St O is too good for the Texas D to handle.

#19 Mississippi State @ #12 Alabama This is probably the best game of the week. MissSt is playing well but Bama has too much talent. They will be in a bad mood after a loss last week @ LSU. Bama wins.

Texas Tech @ #16 Oklahoma – TT had a nice win last week against Missouri. Oklahoma has really struggled against the pass and TT is #8 in passing. This game will be close but high scoring. Oklahoma should win at home.

#24 Kansas St @ #17 Missouri – After going 7-0 including a big win over Oklahoma the Tigers have lost 2 in a row. Kansas St is coming off their 1st win over Texas since the Alamo. KSt is playing well but Missouri is better and wins at home.

#23 South Carolina @ #22 Florida – Both these teams have disappointed their fans for under achieving. SC caught a tired and beaten up Bama team and won. But they have lost 3 out of the last 6. Florida has struggled at QB and on D. I think Florida wins but I would not put a dime on it.

NFL:

Jets-3 @ Browns – It has been a while since the Browns were in one of the top games of the week. But they are playing well with wins in the last 2 games over the Saints and the Pats. The Jets need the win to keep the pressure on NE. I will go out on a limb and pick the Browns to cover.

Titans (5-3)-1.5 @ Dolphins (4-4) – Miami has changed QBs with Pennington replacing Henne. I have written that Pennington has the heart of lion, the head of a coach and the arm of a chicken. He is more accurate than Henne but will not throw many deep. The Titans added WR Moss. That should help a below average WR corps. The Titans depend on the run and Moss could open up the running lanes if QB Young or Collins can prove to the opponent they can get the ball deep to him. The Titans win and cover.

Patriots (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2) -4.5 – The Brown showed the league that the Pats can’t stop the run. The Steelers have trouble stopping the pass and have lost another OL player to the IR. The Pats O still can throw the ball. This is a tough game to pick but I think that the Steelers win. I am not sure they cover so I would stay away from betting this game.

Eagles (5-3) -3 @ Redskins (4-4) – HC Shanahan has added unnecessary turmoil to the locker room with his benching of QB McNabb. McNabb faces his old team. The Eagles get a rust free QB Vick with a game under his belt since his injury. The Eagles D looks like they finally have the game plan and pass rush together. The Redskins don’t. I will take the Birds as a road favorite.

Editorial: What to do about Auburn QB Newton?

Auburn has a major issue with the question of the eligibility status of star QB Newton. Earlier this week, Auburn said he would play. That was before the FBI got involved looking into the pay for play issue. As each minute ticks by more information comes out about Newton or his father asking for money to sign to play for Mississippi State. What should happen?

Auburn has no choice but to play him unless they know for a fact that he is guilty. If the NCAA vacates their wins they will be 0-8.

The NCAA MUST get the decision done before practice starts for the Championship game. If they can’t decide before the BcS title game and then declare him out Congress should investigate them.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits https://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits .

Technorati Tags: Oregon,NCAA Football,Auburn,Newton,Florida,South Carolina,Ohio State,Penn State,Jets,Browns,NFL Playoffs. BcS Championship game,Titans,Dolphins,Eagles,Patriots,Steelers,Redskins,NCAA investigation,FBI,Georgia,TCU

Things to look for this week in College and Pro football.

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FOOTball

The Big East is a fraud. Despite the pollsters doing their best to get a BE team into the top 25, the league stinks this year. Several teams have crept into the top 25 only to lose and fall back out the next week. The current top team is Syracuse (6-2) who is tied for 28th in the AP. The league is recruiting BcS #3 TCU to join the league. TCU would love to get into an automatic qualifying conference. The BE desperately needs a team–any team– that can get into the top 25 and stay there. It also would love to have a TV presents in the Dallas market. The only problem is the BE basketball is 16 teams already and TCU does not have a strong basketball tradition.

#3 TCU @ #5 Utah – The loser is out of the Championship picture. The TCU D is #1 in most college stats and the O is 9th in scoring and 9th in rushing. The Utah D is 6th in points allowed and their O is 3rd in scoring. The key may be the difference in opponents. The only big time opponent that Utah has played was a badly over rated #15 Pit team in game 1 of the season. TCU beat a good Oregon State team ranked at the time and Baylor who was not ranked then but is #21 now. TCU wins due to more experience on D and at QB.

#6 Alabama @ #10 LSU – Watch out for Bama. They lost on the road @ South Carolina in their 3rd straight game against a ranked team that had a bye the previous week. I think LSU is W A Y over rated. Bama wins easily on the road.

#15 Arizona @ #13 Stanford – All the talk about this game is about the Stanford #5 scoring O against the Zona #7 points against D. But this game will be decided by the Arizona O vs the Stanford D. Zona is 12th in passing but struggles to put points on the board (#32). The Stanford D will struggle to stop the air attack of the Zona and Arizona wins on the road.

#21 Baylor @ #17 Oklahoma St. – Both passing games are outstanding. Soph QB Griffin has led the Bears to their first bowl eligibility in years and is ranked 10th in passing yards. OKSt has a bad D that is susceptible to the passing game but has the 3rd ranked passing game themselves. The key should be the running game of the Bears and the visitors should walk away with the win.

#18 Arkansas @ #19 South Carolina – Hog QB Mallett leads the 2nd ranked passing game into SC against the Gamecocks 24th ranked D. But Mallett’s passing stats are misleading. He has failed against the top teams (#1 Alabama and #4 Auburn) he has played and needs this game to prove to the scouts that he is a worthy top pick whenever he comes out. SC beat Alabama but lost in their only other game against a top team. They also stumbled against Kentucky. SC plays much better at home and wins this game.

NFL this week:

Chiefs (5-2) @ Raiders (4-4) -2.5 – This game is critical to the Raiders if they want a chance at the playoffs. The Chiefs bring in the top rushing game against the 26th ranked rush D of the Raiders. The secret for KC is not to have to depend on the arm of QB Cassel because he is not reliable. They have played only 2 good teams (Colts and Texans) and lost to both. The Raiders are coming back. The O has scored 92 points in the last 2 games. They win and cover.

Colts (5-2) @ Eagles (4-3) -3 – With the benching of QB Kolb the Eagles are taking a big gamble on keeping the locker room together. QB Vick is solid but will have some rust coming off an injury. I think the Colts cover and should win.

Buccaneers (5-2) @ Falcons (5-2) -8.5 – Buc HC Morris thinks he has the best team in the league. He doesn’t. The Bucs are 30th against the run and that is what the Falcons do best. Atlanta wins but 8.5 is a BIG number I would not touch.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Ravens (5-2) -6 – The Ravens struggled defensively against the Bills last week. Even so, the team is solid. The Dolphins won ugly against the Bengals last week. QB Henne is not having a great season and the Dolphin O line will struggle against the Raven D. The Ravens win and should cover.

Best Bet: Giants +5.5 vs Seahawks.

Is 2011 really the year of the QB? Probably not. Most mock drafts show 3 QBs going in the first round of the 2011 draft. There is no question that a lot of NFL teams need QBs but it is not at all clear that the under class guys like Mallett in Arkansas and Luck at Stanford, or even Wilson at NC State will come out. The key is going to be the Collective Bargaining Agreement. DeMaurice Smith of the NFLPA and the owners need to get a deal done by declaration day in mid January 2011. There is no chance that the deal will be done by that time. I don’t see any of the under class men coming out without a deal signed prior to the declaration date. QB Locker (Washington) will go in the 1st round but that is it. Florida State QB Ponder will go in round 2, with Delaware QB Devlin and Nevada QB Kaepernick being wild cards. Their draft position will depend on the all star games and the combine.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits .

Technorati Tags: BCS,BCS Championship game,NCAA Football,TCU,Utah,Arizona,Stanford,Baylor,Oklahoma State,Arkansas,South Carolina,Chiefs,Raiders,NFL Playoffs,Colts,Eagles,DeMaurice Smith,NFLPA,CBA,Buccaneers,Falcons,Dolphins,Ravens,Giants,Seahawks,Big East,Polls,Alabama,LSU
Technorati Tags: DeMaurice Smith,NFLPA,CBA,Collective Bargaining agreement,NFL Owners,Mallett,Luck,Locker,Vick,Kolb,Devlin,Ponder,Kaepernick

What did we learn from college football this week? Who is going where.

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football

Alabama and Texas will play for the mythical BcS championship.

Alabama looked great and Texas got VERY lucky to win its game against Nebraska. Texas tends to play down to the competition too often to be favored against Bama. Texas has been living on luck in several games and their luck runs out against the Tide.

Rose Bowl Ohio State and Oregon.

The Buckeyes are going to have to focus on their running game and stopping the run. Even though they practice against a running QB, the team has always had trouble stopping an offense based around that. Oregon has one of the best running games in college football. All Big 10+1 teams have trouble going west and Oregon has just the kind of team that will give the Buckeyes fits.

Sugar Bowl Florida and Cincinnati

This should be one of the most interesting games of the bowl season. The question is can the Cincy D handle Tebow and the Florida O? I think that TCU would be a better match up for the Gators but they will get Boise. The other question is who will be coaching the Bearcats. Coach Kelly is said to be high on the ND wish list. He will interview this week for that job.

This is a critical game for the Big East to prove that it belongs among the big boys. Florida will be a good test. If you can’t play Big Boy football, it will be obvious.

Fiesta Bowl TCU and Boise State

The Fiesta is going to be a good game but it is too bad that these two teams couldn’t have faced a BcS team. A win against a team like Florida would have given the non BcS teams and leagues a lot of cred. I think that TCU has too much on both sides of the ball for BS.

Orange Bowl Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Iowa got the invitation to Miami rather than Penn State because they won head to head. The Hawkeyes will have to find a way to jump out in front or risk having the Big 10 take another hit to the credibility of the league. Without their starting QB that will be tough. Based on the way things look now, GT wins this game.

We will look at the other bowls next week.

Other news:

WR Golden Tate and QB Jimmy Clausen declare for the NFL Draft. Evidently they don’t care to wait around to see who gets the ND job. That is a great move for Tate. Clausen has not advanced like everyone expected but still will be a prospect with a lot of potential.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NCAA Football,College football,BCS,BCS Championship game,Alabama,Texas,Ohio State,Oregon,Floirda,Cincinnati,TCU,Boise State. Hout,Iowa,Georgia Tech,Penn State,Rose Bowl,Sugar Bowl,Fiesta Bowl,Orange Bowl,Clausen,Tate,Notre Dame

What to look for in College football Week 11

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football

#25 West Virginia @ #5 Cincinnati tonight

Cincy faces a very good challenge tonight. But they also have to play at #12 Pitt in the last game of the season. They have QB Pike fairly healthy but his replacement Collaros has a passer rating of 210. This is a great strength. They will start Collaros tonight. The 2 headed running game of Pead and Ramsey has been outstanding. The real key to the team though is the D. It has stifled some really good offenses around the league.

WV has lost 2 games. They have played well but struggle on D against really good Os. The key will be if WV can stop the run and make Cincy pass when they have to rather than when they would like.

Cincy wins in a closer than expected game.

#1 Florida @ South Carolina

SC has been in and out of the top 25 all year. But losing 3 of their last 4 put them out for good. The team was badly beaten up in the loss to Alabama. They face a Florida team that is playing about as well as it has all year.

Florida has had some struggles but against Georgia seemed to find the O that led it to 2 titles in 3 years. This game will be a closer game than expected because former Gator coach Spurrier always gets his guys up to play his old team.

#2 Alabama @ Mississippi State

3 of MS’s losses have been to ranked teams and each time they played close games against better teams. Their D has fought hard but the O has been the problem. QB Lee has just 4 TDs and 11 picks. Those mistakes have put the D in a lot of bad spots. The running game is OK but will struggle against Bama. MS is tougher at home than on the road.

Bama has the ticket to the SEC Title game in their pocket but need to keep winning to have a shot at the Big game. They will easily and get some of their reserves game experience.

#16 Utah @ #4 TCU

TCU needs to keep winning and this is the biggest game still on their schedule. A big win here will give them a shot at the Big game IF two of the three teams in front of them lose. That is the only way they get into the game and that is a shame. TCU has one of the best D’s in the league. It also has a hard to defend offense that puts incredible pressure on the opponent. QB Dalton has 16 TDs and 3 picks with a yards per attempt of over 9. The running game is an after thought but RB Turner is OK with an average of 5.1.

Utah has only one loss to Oregon and can end the dream of TCU which has knocked them out of the undefeated status in previous years. They still can win the league and get a very good bowl game with a win here and another against #22 BYU. Utah is a good team but it won’t get either win. TCU will drill Utah.

#10 Iowa @ #11 Ohio State

The Buckeyes are wearing rose colored glasses since the win at Penn St. They only need to beat the Hawkeyes to go to the Rose Bowl. They have revised their offense but will not be able to run the ball very well against Iowa early in the game using the backs. They will have to depend on the arm and legs of QB Pryor to move the ball. The real key to the game will be the Buckeye D which totally crushed the PS O.

Iowa had problems moving the ball prior to the injury to QB Stanzi. But Stanzi was not having that good a year. He had 15 TDs with 14 picks. His replacement looked like road kill against Northwestern after the injury last week.

Offense will be in short supply in this game but the Buckeye D should generate enough points to win but maybe not to cover the 17 point spread.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NCAA Football,point spreads,BcS Rankings,BcS championship,Cincinnati,West Virginia,Florida,South Carolina,Alabama,Mississippi State,Utah St.,TCU,BYU,Iowa,Ohio State,Rose Bowl,Penn State,Northwestern,bowl game
  • Author:
  • Published: Jan 3rd, 2009
  • Category: College Football
  • Comments: Comments Off on Utah blows another hole in Airship B(C)S

Utah blows another hole in Airship B(C)S

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Frying Pan Sports

tA

By Bill Smith

The University of Alabama football team came into the 2009 Sugar Bowl believing they should have been part of the national championship game. They came out on the short end of a 31-17 loss to Utah. No one hated that result more than those college president pinheads that say that there is no need for a playoff in big boy college football.

There is a case to be made that Utah and not Florida should be in the championship game. To that end, let me provide some evidence:

Exhibit A: Florida allowed Alabama to score 20 points while Utah gave up only 17, 7 of which were the direct result of a turnover and 7 more on a punt return.

Exhibit B: Utah held the vaunted Tide running game to 31 yards net on 33 attempts. That is .9 yards a carry. Against national championship bound Florida, Bama also ran 33 time but for 136 yards and a 4.1 average including 2 tds.

Exhibit C: Utah forces 3 Bama turnovers where Florida only forced one.

Exhibit D: Utah held Bama to 5.7 yards per pass attempt while Florida allows 7.5 ypa against them.

Exhibit E: Utah now owns wins over 3 team in the pre-bowl top 15. The defeated #4 Alabama, #12 TCU 13-10 and #14 BYU 48-24. Florida has wins over #4 Alabama 13-20, and #16 Georgia 49-10.

Exhibit F: The only thing that vaulted Florida into the championship game was the win over Alabama.

Exhibit G: Utah is undefeated—in fact the only perfect team in division 1. Florida lost at home to a 8-4 Mississippi team in the regular season that was never ranked.

Now, why would Florida be allowed to play for the national championship and Utah be kept out? Why that’s the system—the BS, sorry, BCS system.

We have heard for years all the arguments against a playoff system in division 1 NCAA football. Let’s look a few of those excuses to see if they hold any water.

  1. A college president said that a 4 team playoff would dilute the regular season of college football. I am sure that if neither Ohio State and Michigan or Alabama and Auburn were in a position to play for a championship, the game between the rivals would be played in an empty stadium without television coverage. Yea, that’s going to happen.
  2. Several spokespeople for college football suggested that the Big 10 and Pac-10 would resist a playoff because it would detract from the tradition of the Rose Bowl. Of course those conferences jumped into the BCS even though it would mean (under the original system) the traditional matchup would be lost every 4th year. Money seems to count more than tradition. I wonder just how long it will be before the Rose Bowl will become the Flowers.com Bowl to pay the conferences more money. That of course would do nothing to dilute the tradition of the game.
  3. The playoff would violate the tradition of bowls. Yea, like there is any tradition there at all. Whom among us isn’t choked up at the very thought to watching the Pulan Weed-Eater bowl? Oh yea, that is gone replaced by the Who Gives a Crap Bowl.
  4. A playoff would cost the student athletes way too much class time. WHAT? The average basketball player be it the men or women loses 3 times the number of class days that football players do. They play twice a week and over a much longer season than football. If lost class time is so critical, let’s cancel the NCAA tournament and let the BCS formula or the power rankings determine which two teams play for the basketball championship. Look at all the time we could save for the fans so that they could do their St. Patrick’s day shopping.
  5. We also hear that the pinhead college presidents are convinced that the current system is what the people want because the revenue continues to grow every year. Evidently what we were all starved for was more bowl games because the NCAA agreed to add two more bowls to the plethora of nameless faceless matchups between two 6-6 teams. I set my TIVO to record every second of both of them! I am particularly thrilled with the idea of the Congressional Bowl in Washington D.C. Who says there is a no win attitude in our nations capital?
  6. Jim Delany, the Big Ten Commissioner, was quoted earlier this year as saying that a 4 team playoff like the plus one formula would quickly lead to expansion to a 8 to 16 team playoff system and stain college football with the brush of professionalism. Maybe we need to eliminate playoffs for Division 2 and Division 3 football. That would help keep professionalism out of the game at that level.

There has been some discussion of a plus one formula after the bowl games. But in a 4 team playoff who would you leave out? USC? I think they may be the best team right now. Utah? They handled Alabama easily in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. I don’t think we have any idea how good this team could be. How about Texas? They were last second field goal away from a perfect season. So forget the plus one. Give us the real honest to goodness playoff system or bag football all together.

The B(C)S is falling into the same bottomless pit that has swallowed so many businesses managed by Ph D’s. The only thing these pinheads understand is money. If you want a playoff, get to the big money donation people and convince them to send a note to their favorite college president. It should read something like “Dear Pinhead. Unless you support a playoff for division 1 football, your school is off my Christmas Card list. Don’t expect a donation this year either. Signed—the Boss!”

In my opinion that is the only way we are ever going to see a playoff in big boy football.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

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