First round QBs in the NFL Draft may disappear.

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Not that long ago most NFL teams gave a rookie QB 2 or 3 years to mature and learn the game. However, that has changed in recent years and it may be changing again.

First round QBs are expected to start quickly and some of them are able to do that. The recent success of Roethlisberger (PT), Sanchez (NJ), and Ryan (AT) make us forget the list of those that have crashed and burned in recent years.

We start with 2007 because it is too soon to evaluate players being a bust from the 08 or 09 drafts.

2007-1st pick JaMarcus Russell Oakland Russell has thrown a total of 18 TDs and 23 picks since joining the league. He has a career passer rating of 65.2. In the 2010 draft the team traded for Campbell to replace him.

2007-22nd pick Brady Quinn Cleveland He didn’t get thrown into the game immediately but that still didn’t help him. In 3 years he had a rating of 66.8. He was traded to Denver this year for a bucket of water. They were so impressed with Quinn that they used a 1st round pick on QB Tim Tebow.

2006-3rd pick Vince Young Tennessee His first 2 years he was the starter and had passer ratings of 66.7 and 71.1. He got benched in 08 and the first part of 09 but came back after learning a little more about the game and had some success.

2006-10 Matt Leinart Arizona He started in game 5 of 06 and threw 11 TDs but 12 picks. He ended that year with a QBR of 74. He was named the starter in 07 but was done after 5 games with a QBR of 61.9. He has started 1 game since. He will have to fight for the job this year because the Cards traded for Anderson after Kurt Warner retired.

2006-11th Jay Cutler Denver Cutler was quite successful in his first 3 years with QBRs of 88.5, 88.1 and 86.0 before wearing out his welcome forcing a trade to Chicago. There he threw 27 TDs but 26 picks and a QBR of a mediocre 76.8.

2005-1st overall Alex Smith San Francisco Smith started the last 5 games of 05 and all of 06. But 7 games into 07 he was pulled for an undrafted FA. Even with a QBR in 09 of 81.5 his career number is 69.2. In his first 3 seasons he threw 19 TDs but 31 picks.

2005-25th Jason Campbell Washington Campbell sat out 05 but started 7 games in 06, 13 games in 07 and every game since. Despite improving his stats each year, he was traded to the Raiders this season for a 4th round pick in 2012. That is the equivalent of a 6th round pick this draft.

So in the 3 seasons we looked at, there were 7 first round QBs picked and only Cutler has been successful enough to be named a replacement pro bowler after a couple of others backed out. Young may be on the upswing after sitting for a year and a half. The rest were pretty much busts. Those busts set their teams back several seasons except the Cards that had future Hall of Fame QB Warner in reserve.

So what is the problem? There are several factors that are making the drafting of a QB in the first round less likely now and perhaps prohibitive in the near future.

The first cause is cost. The price of a QB as the 1st pick in 2010 will be 50 million in cash guarantees. Bradford will get that even if he never plays a down for the Rams. The Rams were willing to take offers to trade down but even in an uncapped year there were no serious bids for the pick.

The more pressing issue is the spread offense of the College game. More and more college teams are using a version of the spread and QBs that play 3 or 4 years in that system are not at all prepared to come to the NFL.

The pass patterns that the spread runs are very limited. The most frequent pattern is the bubble screen. There are very few teams that use the route tree like that of the NFL. The favorite pattern in the NFL is the skinny post. Very few college QBs even know what that is.

WRs are wide open in college but are not open at all in the NFL. As a result, QBs are not forced to make the throw to the back shoulder of a WR. There is accuracy in college but that does not relate to accuracy in the NFL.

The average QB is in the shotgun 90+ percent of the time. They never have to worry about the 3, 5, and 7 step drop back. Footwork is critical to accuracy and almost none of the QBs coming into the league have consistent footwork.

The CBs that an NFL QB faces every week are better than any that a college QB in his career. The college kid has seldom seen a rotating zone or combination man/zone D. Those are used every week in the NFL.

The worst part of the spread is that QBs never have to make more than 2 reads of the defense. Bradford was not even looking at the D prior to the snap. He was always looking for the coach’s call from the sideline. It takes time to learn to do pre-snap reads. An NFL QB has to know where the pressure is likely to originate and has to adjust to it.

The more the rookie 1st round QBs cost the more pressure there is to put them under center Day 1. But given the complexities of the NFL defenses and the lack of NFL offenses in college, the more expensive QB is less prepared to come into the league.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

and edits .

Technorati Tags: NFL Draft,NFL Draft grades,Bradford,Tebow,Russell,Campbell,Roethlisberger,Sanchez,Ryan,Quinn,Young,Leinart,Cutler,Smith,49ers,Browns,Steelers,Falcons,Jets,Raiders,Redskins,Bears,Bron
cos,Titans

What happened to Brown QB Anderson?

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In business competition is necessary to insure the best performance. Anywhere there is no competition like in education, the results seem to decline with time. But a QB competition for the starting spot on an NFL team nearly always ends in disaster.

Anderson rode into the stadium on a white horse to pick up the pieces of Charlie Frye that were scattered all over the field after the first half of the Steeler game to open the 07 season. We found out later that Frye had been traded away between the 3rd and 4th quarters of that game.

He ended 07 with a slightly above average QB rating but there were signs of trouble for anyone that was watching. In the last 5 games of the 07 regular season he threw 7 TDs but 8 picks. When the pressure was on to make the playoffs with a win over the Bengals, he threw 4 picks and lost the game. He got his pro bowl status only after a gaggle of higher rated QBs backed out of the post season exhibition. The league had figured him out even if the Browns leadership had not.

But compared to the dismal QB play the team had suffered through since home town hero Bernie Kosar was released, Anderson looked like the second coming of Otto Graham. He was given a new deal and the team thought it was set at QB.

What happened to Anderson was simple. He was the victim of a pair of drive bye QB competitions. He developed a stiff neck looking over his shoulder at QB Quinn who the team had traded back into the first round of the 07 draft to take. Coach Crennel told the media he had “flipped a coin” to decide who would start at QB.

In the early games of 08, Anderson’s interception problems continued. When the bye came in week 5 he had thrown 3 TDs but 6 picks. For the rest of that year he and Quinn traded injuries and starts. The season was such a disaster that HC Crennel was fired and 5 minutes later Mangini was named the new football Czar.

The beginning of the 09 season was a disaster. It was a pre-planned 4 alarm fire because no one including the new HC knew who was going to start at QB. Quinn and Anderson split snaps during training camp and starts in the preseason. In game 4 in order to keep the Vikes guessing who would win the horse race for QB, Mangini didn’t play either one. That was a mistake but not as much as just picking one and giving him the best chance to succeed by giving his choice as many reps as possible prior to the first game.

Mangini proved to be a lot more patent than his predecessor. He started his choice–Quinn–for the first 2 games before pulling the plug. Anderson went in and continued to complete a high percentage of his passes. Unfortunately for the Browns he seemed to find defenders as often as he did his team mates. After the bye in week 9, Quinn was back and Anderson was an after thought. He did come back only when Quinn was hurt to play toward the end of the season but everyone in Cleveland knew his time there was over. He is not a has been. He is a “never was.”

Anderson is not the first QB to be ruined by a QB controversy. When there is an open competition, the locker room is automatically divided between the two guys. Some back each one. That is a formula for disaster. One of my favorite players of the “new” Browns, QB Kelly Holcomb, was also ruined by a QB competition. In 02, the Browns made the playoffs but starting QB Couch was hurt. Holcomb came in and threw for 429 yards against the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the wild card game. He ended up in that game with a 107 QB rating and the season with a 92.9 QBR. That was the beginning of the Couch/Holcomb QB competition and the end of both QB’s careers.

New football Czar Holmgren said that he will not allow a QB controversy but both Quinn and newly arrived former Seahawk Seneca Wallace both believe they will be the starter. We will have to see what happens.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at . Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

and edits .

Technorati Tags: NFL,Free agent,Anderson,Browns,Vikes,Steelers,Holcomb,Mangini,Wallace,Quinn,Crennel,Holmgren
  • Author:
  • Published: Oct 31st, 2009
  • Category: NFL Football
  • Comments: Comments Off on Around the NFL for Week 8

Around the NFL for Week 8

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This week is the half way mark in the season. Tuesday we will look at what the playoffs look like as well as the second half. But this week there are a couple of key games to watch.

DV @ BA

The second half of the Bronco schedule is a lot harder than the first half. They play the Steelers next along with the Giants, the Colts and the Eagles. Sunday we will see if the Bronco O is a competitor for the Super Bowl or just a pretender. Their O line has not faced a D like the Ravens even if the Ravs are not playing as well as they have in the past.

The Bronco D has played well against some of the weakest offenses in the history of the NFL. We will see how they look against a balanced Raven O. QB Flacco is playing very well and will challenge a questionable Bronco defensive backfield.

The Ravens have to tighten up the D. The pass coverage has been far below what it was in previous years. This season they replaced both CBs and Foxworth and Washington have not produced like McAlister and Rolle have in recent years. As a result, the D is giving up more passing yards and forced to blitz more.

The Ravens need the win much more than Denver and win the game.

SF @ IN

The 49ers have played well and are 3-3 going into Indy. Smith is going to start at QB which has been the weakness of the team. RB Gore is healthy and the Colts have trouble stopping the run. S Sanders is back for the Colts and that will help against Gore.

The 49er D has been very strong but has not faced an O like Manning and Co. The SF O and the Colt D are a standoff. It will be the Colt O that gives Indy the win.

MN @ GB

The return of Farve is all the media is talking about. But those that have watched Viking games realize that Favre is the icing not the cake itself. RB Peterson is the key player on the O for the Vikes. The Pack D has played well but has gotten most of their numbers against weak teams like the Browns and the Lions.

However, the key will be the Viking D against a very potent O of the Pack. The Packers have suffered injuries on the O line and the Viking pass rush will be the difference. If the Vikes can put enough heat on Pack QB Rodgers, the Vikes will win in a close game.

The Vikes won at home and should win again in Favre’s return.

AT @ NO

The Monday night game should be a very good one. The Falcons come in 2 games behind the Saints at 4-2. They really need to win to get within striking distance of the division leader. The Falcon O has scored 21 points in each of the last 2 games. That won’t be nearly enough against the NFL’s top offense. They will need to play the best game defensively of the season and still score 35 to have a chance to win.

The Saints D has played way above expectation. It has been helped by the pressure that the O puts on the opposition. Very often the D can just worry about rushing the passer because the Saints are so far ahead of the opponent. The D has not faced a team that could match them score for score as the Falcons can on a good day.

But their visit to the Big Easy will be anything but and the Saints win comfortably.

QB changes around the league

The Titans will start Young to see what he can do. At 0-6, its about time. I will have some additional suggestions for them next week.

Despite cries of protest and the most abysmal lack of offense in years, the Browns will continue to start Anderson. He has a passer rating of 40.6. If a QB goes 0-1 without an interception, the rating is 39.6. He is completing just 43.8 % of his throws. Quinn has a pr of 62.9 and a 60.8 completion rate. Give him a chance.

The 49ers have replaced QB Hill with former 1st overall pick Smith. Hill had a qb rating of 79.6 but Smith in very limited action has a 118.6. I don’t believe that Smith is that much better than Hill and in more extensive action will prove it. We will see how he does against an only fair D backfield of the Colts.

Raider fans have to be wondering what the D could do if Davis had not cut the vet QB Garcia. Russell has a rating of 47.2. The only QB with any experience on the team is Gradkowski who has proven beyond a doubt he isn’t an NFL qb. Like the Browns, the Raiders will have a very long season.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NFL Football,NFL Draft,Fantasy Football,Broncos,Ravens,Steelers,Giants,Colts,Eagles,Flacco,Foxworth,Washington,49ers,Smith,Gore,Manning,Sanders,Vikings,Packers,Favre,Peterson,Falcons,Saints,Titans,Browns,Lions,Raiders,Davis,Anderson,Quinn,Young,Russell,Hill,Garcia
  • Author:
  • Published: Oct 27th, 2009
  • Category: NFL Football
  • Comments: Comments Off on Tuesday QB for 10/27/09

Tuesday QB for 10/27/09

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Teams in serious trouble from the bad to the terrible

The Redskins (2-5) have taken the play calling away from coach Zorn. The main problem is not Zorn and it is not the QB. QB Campbell has a passer rating of 85. Given some of the teams on this list, that is not great but not that bad. Injuries have hurt the team badly. RB Portis is not healthy, they lost their all pro LT Samuels for the season and now the team has lost its best receiver TE Cooley for several weeks with a broken bone in his ankle.

But the real problem of the Redskins has been the draft. The Redskins have traded for players because they couldn’t find good ones in the draft. The down side of doing that is they are always old and always injury prone. The lack of middle round picks over the years have robbed them of quality depth. When a starter gets hurt, there is a large drop off in the abilities of the replacement. This year they will have another high pick but many of the rounds have already been traded away. Zorn will be fired but no one could get this team improved without cleaning out the front office as well.

The Raiders (2-5) will never get better until Davis gives up the control of the team. He makes a huge mistake like drafting QB Russell and will not admit it. He refuses to have anyone on his staff that criticizes him or his decisions.

The Lions (1-5) are actually turning the corner toward respectability. When QB Stafford went down it hurt that effort but he should be back soon. There are still a lot of holes to fill but not having GM Millen calling the shots will help. He was a disaster.

The Chiefs (1-6) won the contest for QB Cassell but that was not a great choice. He has struggled to a passer rating of 73. The team has suspended their star RB Johnson to whom they gave millions in a contract extension just to see him run for a staggering 2.7 per carry. He made some politically incorrect remarks and will be AOL for awhile. The D is terrible as well. The only good news is that they are in the AFC Least division in the West. Even with their problems, they may get past the Raiders for 3rd in the division.

The Cleveland Tans are just a shadow of their former greatness. Mangini was the wrong pick for coach and he gave their top pick away for nothing. QB Anderson has a passer rating just above 40. Mangini has purged the roster of players he did not pick and brought in a lot of former Jets. So far then new guys have been a bust along with his draft picks. I have put a plan for rebuilding the team posted on NFLDraftDog.com.

The Titans (0-6) are in serious trouble because they are bad and old. They have the oldest starting 22 in the league. But they do have an outstanding coach Fisher. They lost DT Haynesworth in free agency and their D has not been anything close to as good without him.

The Rams (0-7) have some weapons on O but lack the blocking to make them effective. They drafted RT Smith (Baylor) to replace Orlando Pace but he was unable to beat out LT Barron and now is a reserve behind RT Goldberg. They did hit the jackpot with 2nd round pick IB Laurinaitis who is starting and playing well. The problem for so long has been bad coaching and worse drafting. There is little to suggest that they know where the corner is let alone finding a way to get around it. So far the new staff hasn’t gotten much done.

The Buccaneers (0-7) have a new coach and new front off staff. The problem is they still have the same team. They have made a QB change but that has not helped. They used their 1st pick on QB Freeman that won’t contribute for 2 or 3 years. They just don’t have a lot of talent on the team. They did get some decent talent later on in the draft including a couple of D linemen that are in the rotation. They have a long way to go to get back up to the middle of the pack.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NFL Football,NFL Draft,Redskins,Zorn,Samuels,Cooley,Portis,Campbell,Raiders,Davis,Lions,Chiefs,Cassell,Johnson,Browns,Mangini,NFL Draft dog,Titans,Fisher,Haynesworth,Rams,Smith,Barron,Goldberg,Laurinaitis,Buccaneers,Freeman

What did we learn in week 3?

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QB News:

Miami: QB Chad Pennington is likely out for the season. According to ESPN, he suffered a torn capsule in his shoulder. He is getting a second opinion. I hope he can recover from the injury. He has always had the head of a coach, the heart of a lion and the arm of a chicken. But he is a perfect QB for the Dolphin O. Former 2nd round pick Chad Henne from Michigan will start for the time being.

St. Louis: QB Mark Bulger has a rotator cuff injury. He will miss significant time.

Tampa Bay: Coach Morris announced that Josh Johnson will be the starter replacing Byron Leftwich who will be the #3 QB behind rookie Josh Freeman.

Cleveland: Brady Quinn was replaced by Derek Anderson to start the second half. As usual, no information has been made public about who will start next week against the Bengals. He will announce his latest victim on Wednesday.

Quinn has shown nothing in 2+ games. Anderson moved the ball much better in the 2nd half but threw 3 picks. In my opinion, Mangenus will select Anderson but he should stick with Quinn. We all know that Anderson is not going to get this team back to respectability. Let the kid play. The team is not going anywhere this year anyway. I will have a lot more to say about the Browns Wednesday on NFLDraftDog.com

Teams that are in some trouble:

Dolphins – The team was not going to repeat as division champion anyway. But they are 0-3 and Pennington is hurt. They will not make the playoffs.

Browns – They may get the #1 draft choice overall but Mangini will trade it for a bag of balls.

Titans – This team will recover. They are much better than both the Jags and the Texans. But at 0-3 the playoffs are in question.

Chiefs – Who cares?

Redskins – What do you expect when you have a bad QB and a rookie O Coordinator?

Bucs – This is the worst team in the NFC and that is saying a lot.

Cowboys – If the Boys don’t win tonight Jerry Jones is going to have to fire his coach before the end of the season—the sooner the better.

Panthers – The QB problem is going to keep the team from getting better. Matt Moore is their backup! Good planning guys.

Seahawks – Starter Matt Hasselbeck is out and backup Seneca Wallace is in. That is trouble for the team that is already 1-2. The only thing they have in their favor is the fact that the St. Louis Lambs are in their division.

Lambs – The Lambs are going to fight the Browns for the 1st pick overall. They have less talent but perhaps are better off in the locker room.

We will look at the College game and NFL teams going in the right direction later in the week.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: Dolphins,Browns,Rams,Buccaneers,Titans,Chiefs,Redskins,Cowboys,Panthers,Pennington,Bulger,Quinn,Anderson,NFLDraftDog,Seahawks,Hasselbeck,NFL,nfl draft
  • Author:
  • Published: Sep 1st, 2009
  • Category: NFL Football
  • Comments: Comments Off on Tuesday Morning QB Analysis: Key issues of Week 3 PS

Tuesday Morning QB Analysis: Key issues of Week 3 PS

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NFL

Why hasn’t QB Vince Young developed in Tennessee?

Young’s biggest problem is that he hasn’t developed the vision and anticipation for both his receivers and the coverage. Part of that is because he played in the spread at Texas. There he had wide open receivers running all over the field. He has to spend more time in the film room and understand that the NFL definition of “open” is about 1/8th the separation of the college version of the the same thing.

On the pick that Browns LB Hall ran in for the TD, Young never saw Hall. That is a perfect example of his lack of vision and recognition of coverage. On the next drive 5 plays 80 yards, the biggest single play was Young’s scramble. He can make plays with his feet. That will win some games in the regular season but not AFC South titles or Super Bowls. And those are the things that the Titans want most of all. The Titans need a passing QB that can run rather than a runner that passes a little.

This explains why Young has double the number of INTs than TDs. As you get closer to the endzone, the coverage is compressed due to less yards to cover. If you struggle reading coverages in the middle of the field, you will really struggle in the red zone just like Young does.

What is the key differences between Anderson and Quinn?

The ability to process information quickly and the touch and accuracy on the short pass or screen pass. The Browns are not going to have much of a running game this year. That necessitates the short passing game to replace the yards that the running game should generate. Quinn is much more accurate at circle patterns where the RB goes around the end and across the middle just behind the LBs, the screen pass, and the swing pass where the RB slants to the sideline.

There is no question that Anderson has the much stronger arm. But he tends to trust his arm too much and throws into coverage because he believes he can “squeeze” the ball in between defenders. That leads to some really nice completions. It also leads to a lot of interceptions which is something that Coach Mangini will not abide.

Scouting Report: Bret Favre v Texans

Any game that starts with your RB going up the gut for 75 yards and a TD is going to be a good one. There is nothing wrong with Favre’s eyes. He sees the field fine and processes information as fast as he always has. He moves instinctively and finds receivers down field with guys in his face. He still has the touch to drop the ball over the blitzing LB on a screen pass. He still has the hard count to pull the D offside on a key play.

He is not the rifle armed QB he used to be. He struggles to get the ball out on a line when he is falling back to avoid a sack. And to throw the deep ball he has to wind up and change his delivery. He also has to do that when he has to throw the fast ball in between defenders. He used to be able to throw the ball 50 yards on a line with a flick of his wrist. But next month he will turn 40.

He has a much better running game, O line and defense than he had in New York. Besides, half a Favre is better than any other QB on the Vikings roster.

Why does it take college WRs a couple of years to develop in the NFL?

Most top college WRs depend on physical ability and speed to get open against a lot of average DBs in college. They are so much better athletes than the average DB that they don’t have to work to get open on technique like running crisp pattern and making fakes before their break. In the NFL the DBs are equal in physical talent and speed. The only way an NFL WR gets open is to run precise patterns and make sharp cuts. He also has to always be aware of the line to gain and the sideline. That is a lot to think about for a young WR.

Another factor is the use of the spread offense in college. The spread doesn’t focus on patterns but on flooding zones and quick reads. In college someone is always open. In the NFL, the word open takes on a whole new meaning. Open in the pros is a half step or body position rather than a window a couple of yards wide like in college.

A third factor that is not often discussed is the hits that NFL receivers take. The first NFL hit by a corner or safety is as hard as the best hit a WR got in his entire college career. It takes a while to be able to considerate on the catch and not hear the footsteps of a 210 pound safety with his sites on your chest.

KC rookie head coach Todd Haley fires OC Chan Gailey.

There is no question that the Chiefs offense wouldn’t score against air. Gailey was part of the problem but there are a lot more troubles than him. You have a QB that is unproven. Yes Matt Cassel played well in New England. But the Chiefs don’t have Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the Pats O line. They have Dwayne Bowe (a great physical talent but very inconsistent) and Bobby (I’m always hurt) Engram and a very young O line.

You also have a very over rated RB in Larry Johnson who has missed 12 games in the last 2 years with injuries. Now your QB may be hurt. Gailey wasn’t your problem. Your team is your problem. It’s a good thing you are new because this group is bad enough to get any head coach fired.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits https://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NFL,NFL Draft,Fantasy Football,Anderson,Quinn,Favre,Gailey,Mangini,Cassel,Moss,Welker,Bowens,Engram

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