Happy Thanksgiving to all.

What we learned from last week.

QB Vince Young has turned the corner—Not yet.

Looking at the 4 straight wins of the Titans, many would assume that Young is now an NFL quality QB. Young has given the O a shot in the butt however it is more from his ability or his threat to run than from his passing. Against the Texans he had 116 yards passing.

He has improved his mechanics. His footwork is much better. He is planting his feet before he throws and is not throwing as often off his back foot. That has improved his accuracy. He has been over 50% in every game and over 60% completions in two.

Unless he continues to improve his passing, defenses will adjust to the Young led O and stop this version of the team as well.

The Browns find their O but have lost their D—Not yet.

You and I could move the ball against the Lions even if you were having a bad day. The O of the Browns Sunday means nothing. However, we did see indications that QB Quinn can throw deep but he must work on accuracy.

The Bengals will play up to their competition or down to the Raiders.

This is a team that is just starting to learn how to win again after being the joke of the NFL. It will take them a couple of years to get used to putting their foot on the throat of a weak opponent and winning the game.

The Turkeys served up by the NFL

GB @ DT – UCH! Forget the tradition. Detroit won’t be a competitive team any time soon. Put some team in that won’t make us lose our dinner.

OK @ DA Couldn’t the NFL have found a more accomplished team to match against the Boys than the Al Davises?

NYG @ DV The Broncos are hanging on for dear life and the Giants D will force them further down into the muck. Giants win even without a running game.

Indy @ HO This is the last chance for the Texans to prove they are better than a 500 team. To do that they have to beat the Colts. They are not better than a 500 team. They will lose and end up with a new coach next season.

PT @ BA This is the battle of reserves because these teams are really beaten up. The Steelers called me early this week asking if I would play backup QB because Roethlisberger was banged up last week and Batch was out with a bad wrist. They also could be missing S Polamalu and G Kemoeatu.

The Ravens will also be struggling with injuries to C Birk, LB Lewis and S Reed. Look for the Steelers to win IF big Ben plays.

Game of the Week—NE @ NO The Saints get the first real test of the season. The key will be how well a bad Pat D backfield deals with the passing of Brees. The Saints should win but this is the type of game that the Pats seem to steal.

Stinker of the Week—SE @ STL Ram QB Bulger is hurt and the O line is not good enough to create running lanes against air. Seattle is no gift to football fans.

Please take a moment this holiday to think about those that are on the other side of world risking their lives to make us safe. May the men and women of our military stay safe.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The Browns begin to clean house.

The GM George Kokinis was frog-walked out of the facility. He should have been preceded by Head Coach Mangenous who is guilty of a lot more of the disaster than GK. There is no way describe the mess that Mangini has created. The team was better under the previous administration. The ex-Jets that were brought in particularly those that came at the cost of the 5^th overall pick have been less productive than they were last year.

The total absence of offense is not going to be solved over night. In NFLDraftdog last week I outlined a plan to at least patch the holes in the program and get back some fan interest. The team does not have any idea who it is on O. It really doesn’t matter because they can not run or pass effectively. The QBs are running for their lives.

Owner Randy Lerner said he is going to bring in a “real” football man to oversee the entire operation. Now that would have been a good idea before you jumped to hire Mangenous and gave him all the power.

The Titans show a little life

QB Vince Young was 15-18 in his first start of the year. Even his meager 125 yards was enough to keep the Jags D honest and open up things for the running game. RB Johnson had an amazing game running for over 200 yards and 2 TDs. But lets remember it was against the Jags.

Suddenly the Broncos look very average.

As predicted here last week, the Ravens took the Broncos apart and put them back together wrong. The Denver O could do very little as the Raven D looked like it did during the Super Bowl years. Things don’t get any easier for Denver having the Steelers next on their dance card.

The Giant WRs are costing them games

The loss to the Eagles again pointed out the major weakness in the Giants’ O—WR. The wideouts just can not seem to make plays often enough to win against good defenses. That is what we predicted at the beginning of the season. It will get worse for the Giants before it gets better.

The Vikes are just too much for the Pack.

Again as predicted, the Vikes one weakness was the QB. Now that they have Favre, they are set to challenge for the NFC. They will have to battle the Saints and the Eagles but I like the Vikes chances.

The Rams WIN!

The Lambs finally got a win. It would have made more of an impact had it not been against a wounded Lion team.

The Cards are still inconsistent.

The secret to the Cards winning is the play of QB Warner. The secret to him playing well is the protection he gets or does not get from the line. Until the O line firms up the Cards playoff chances will depend more on the WEAK NFC West than their own play.

The NFL and the NFLPA want to negotiate in private!

That is the first good piece of news we have seen. They are meeting and have agreed to keep the issues out of the press and away from the public. The less we hear from them the better are the chances of reaching an agreement.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The Saints established themselves as a competitor for the top spot in the NFC with an impressive win over the Giants. There has never been a question about the Saints O because it has been among the best in the league for several years. The difference with the team this year is the play of the D. The D is allowing just 18.6 points per game and is much stiffer against the run than they have been. The Saints are now 5-0.

The Vikes pulled out a great win over the Ravens and then held their breath as the Birds missed a 44 yard field goal. The win puts the Vikes at 6-0 and also a possible top playoff seed. Two of the wins are directly the result of QB Farve. He has led them to an undefeated record so far with a passer rating of 109.5. Last year starter Gus Frerotte finished with a 73.7 rating. With the loss by the Bears, the Vikes lead the division by 2.5 games.

The Bengals stubbed their collective toes badly in a loss to the Texans. After beating the Ravens and Steelers in recent games, this was a letdown they could not well afford. They now are in first place only by the tie breaker with the Steelers. I am not convinced the Bengals can hold on to 1^st but at 4-2 for a start, they have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

Most of the experts felt that the Cards would lose to the Seahawks. Not so fast. The Cards blew the Hawks out by scoring 24-3 points by the middle of the 3^rd quarter. Card QB Warner went 32-41 for 276 and 2 TDs. Hawk QB Hasselbeck was only 10-29. The Cards tied for 1^st place with the 49ers in the NFC West. The team will go as far as their running game and D take them. There can be no question about Warner. If the team can protect him at all and give him a chance to throw the ball he will kill any D he plays.

The Falcons won the wild card tie breaker against the Bears with a 21-14 win. The D played very well holding Bear QB Cutler to 27-43 and just 14 points. Cutler has to stop throwing interceptions in the red zone. The Falcons are going to be a tough out in the playoffs for any team if the D can stay healthy.

The Titans are a really bad team. Soon I will publish a plan to get them back to respectability. The problem is that the draft has produce only 1 real star over the last few years. Only RB Chris Johnson has had a major positive impact on the team. The drafting of QB Vince Young put the team in a hole they have yet to clime out from. The team was 13-3 last year and has a good shot to be 3-13 this season. Not the direction you want a team to go. The club got old fast because it has relied too much on free agents and not gotten much out of the draft.

Other notes:

Ownership of the Redskins have taken the play calling away from Coach Zorn. Jim, get a good Realtor because it takes a while to sell a house and you won’t have a job long if your team doesn’t start winning.

Jet NT Kris Jenkins was placed on IR which ends his season. The 3-4 is impossible to run without a quality player at that most critical position on the D.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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TN @ JK The Titans are in serious trouble. Just like the rest of those that watch and are fool enough to try to prognosticate NFL games, I thought the Titans would come around. They have had a ton of injuries on D and on the O line but that is no excuse. They are bad and there are no answers on the bench (see my column on Will Vince Young ever become an NFL QB?). The Titans are out of the playoffs for the first time in a while.

Jacksonville had their game blacked out. They are really struggling to get their attendance up. The only hope to keep the team in place beside a winning streak which won’t happen is to play some games in Orlando. They won’t do that and will end up moving. The 7 of you that have the NFL Network can see Jacksonville games after midnight on that channel.

BA @ NE The Pats took the one path to beat the Ravens that I have seen—Jump ahead and make them a pass first team. The 14 point 2^nd quarter by the Pats put the Ravens behind and they gave up on the run. That was not wise because Rice averaged 9.4 yards per attempt but got only 11 carries. The loss pulled the Ravs even with the Bengals who they play next week. The Pats were able to pull even with the Jets in the loss column with their fall to the Saints. I still believe that the Pats are the class of the AFC East.

NJ @ NO The Saints untold story is their D. They stopped the Jet O cold and held them to 10 points. The O has carried the Saints for years but now under former HC Williams they are playing very well on D. Look for them to make the NFC South their personal playground. The Jets will be fine and should make the playoffs as a wild card behind the Pats. They are a good team but Sanchez has to have some time to become a NFL QB.

DA @ DV The luck continued but so did an above average effort by the D. The Bronco D has played above their heads and has contributed the most to their 4-0 start. Dallas is in trouble. Romo has yet to prove he can make it happen in tough spots. The playoffs are going to be tough for the Boys that are now in effect 2.5 games behind the Giants because they are 2 games back in the loss column and lose the tiebreaker. The running game is struggling because the passing game is not as effective as it should be. The O line is a problem but so are the backs. Neither Barber nor Choice got 4 yards a carry. That is the standard for an average running game.

SD @ PT The Steelers got another win by showing their grit. They held off the Chargers on a 2^nd half rally that netted 28 points. The Steelers scored 10 in the 4^th to win the game. Mendenhall got out of the dog house just in time to run for 165 yards and 2 TDs. He was the difference between this win and last weeks lost to the Bengals. The Steelers are now 2-2 but 1.5 games behind the Bengals. They should still get to the playoffs but will it be as the Division champ or a wild card. The wild card route is a tough road to get to the Super Bowl.

GB @ MN The Pack was able to keep Peterson under control and allowed him only 2.2 ypa. But by focusing on the running game, Favre went to work. He threw for 3 TDs and 271 yards. The Pack gave up on the running game too soon. Grant was averaging 4.6 per carry but got only 11 attempts. The Vikes are on their way to the 1^st seed in the playoffs and that should carry them to the NFC Championship game.

TB @ WA The Redskins saved Coach Zorn from getting fired or worse. They stumbled to a 16-13 win over the totally inept Bucs. This was the stinker game of the week and lived up to that title. Between Johnson (TB) and Campbell (WA) there was only 276 yards of passing! If you were thinking that the Ds played really well, you would be wrong. Neither guy could hit the water from a sinking boat in the middle of the Atlantic.

CN @ CL Check out my full report on NFLDraftDog.com tomorrow.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Why hasn’t QB Vince Young developed in Tennessee?

Young’s biggest problem is that he hasn’t developed the vision and anticipation for both his receivers and the coverage. Part of that is because he played in the spread at Texas. There he had wide open receivers running all over the field. He has to spend more time in the film room and understand that the NFL definition of “open” is about 1/8^th the separation of the college version of the the same thing.

On the pick that Browns LB Hall ran in for the TD, Young never saw Hall. That is a perfect example of his lack of vision and recognition of coverage. On the next drive 5 plays 80 yards, the biggest single play was Young’s scramble. He can make plays with his feet. That will win some games in the regular season but not AFC South titles or Super Bowls. And those are the things that the Titans want most of all. The Titans need a passing QB that can run rather than a runner that passes a little.

This explains why Young has double the number of INTs than TDs. As you get closer to the endzone, the coverage is compressed due to less yards to cover. If you struggle reading coverages in the middle of the field, you will really struggle in the red zone just like Young does.

What is the key differences between Anderson and Quinn?

The ability to process information quickly and the touch and accuracy on the short pass or screen pass. The Browns are not going to have much of a running game this year. That necessitates the short passing game to replace the yards that the running game should generate. Quinn is much more accurate at circle patterns where the RB goes around the end and across the middle just behind the LBs, the screen pass, and the swing pass where the RB slants to the sideline.

There is no question that Anderson has the much stronger arm. But he tends to trust his arm too much and throws into coverage because he believes he can “squeeze” the ball in between defenders. That leads to some really nice completions. It also leads to a lot of interceptions which is something that Coach Mangini will not abide.

Scouting Report: Bret Favre v Texans

Any game that starts with your RB going up the gut for 75 yards and a TD is going to be a good one. There is nothing wrong with Favre’s eyes. He sees the field fine and processes information as fast as he always has. He moves instinctively and finds receivers down field with guys in his face. He still has the touch to drop the ball over the blitzing LB on a screen pass. He still has the hard count to pull the D offside on a key play.

He is not the rifle armed QB he used to be. He struggles to get the ball out on a line when he is falling back to avoid a sack. And to throw the deep ball he has to wind up and change his delivery. He also has to do that when he has to throw the fast ball in between defenders. He used to be able to throw the ball 50 yards on a line with a flick of his wrist. But next month he will turn 40.

He has a much better running game, O line and defense than he had in New York. Besides, half a Favre is better than any other QB on the Vikings roster.

Why does it take college WRs a couple of years to develop in the NFL?

Most top college WRs depend on physical ability and speed to get open against a lot of average DBs in college. They are so much better athletes than the average DB that they don’t have to work to get open on technique like running crisp pattern and making fakes before their break. In the NFL the DBs are equal in physical talent and speed. The only way an NFL WR gets open is to run precise patterns and make sharp cuts. He also has to always be aware of the line to gain and the sideline. That is a lot to think about for a young WR.

Another factor is the use of the spread offense in college. The spread doesn’t focus on patterns but on flooding zones and quick reads. In college someone is always open. In the NFL, the word open takes on a whole new meaning. Open in the pros is a half step or body position rather than a window a couple of yards wide like in college.

A third factor that is not often discussed is the hits that NFL receivers take. The first NFL hit by a corner or safety is as hard as the best hit a WR got in his entire college career. It takes a while to be able to considerate on the catch and not hear the footsteps of a 210 pound safety with his sites on your chest.

KC rookie head coach Todd Haley fires OC Chan Gailey.

There is no question that the Chiefs offense wouldn’t score against air. Gailey was part of the problem but there are a lot more troubles than him. You have a QB that is unproven. Yes Matt Cassel played well in New England. But the Chiefs don’t have Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the Pats O line. They have Dwayne Bowe (a great physical talent but very inconsistent) and Bobby (I’m always hurt) Engram and a very young O line.

You also have a very over rated RB in Larry Johnson who has missed 12 games in the last 2 years with injuries. Now your QB may be hurt. Gailey wasn’t your problem. Your team is your problem. It’s a good thing you are new because this group is bad enough to get any head coach fired.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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When the Titans were the Houston Oilers, then head coach Buddy Ryan said that they had knocked on the door of the AFC Championship a couple of times and promised to kick it down next year. They didn’t and he was gone a season later.

For most of last year, the Titans were considered by nearly everyone the best team in the AFC if not the NFL. Then they lost to the Jets and that seemed to take the heart out of the team. They ended up doing what they have for all the Super Bowls but 2000—watching from the sidelines. This year could be different, but don’t bet the house on it unless you have a balloon payment due on it soon. Chances are 4-1 they will be the second or third best team in the conference. It will take luck and avoiding injuries to get the Titans to big game.

Former starting quarterback Vince Young will be fighting a possibly terminal case of splinters from carrying the clip board all year. Kerry Collins is the starter and Young has done absolutely nothing to win over the coaching staff or the team other than run his mouth. Collins is calm, accurate, very instinctive and has an above average arm. Young has an above average mouth and arm but has yet to put in the time to learn the playbook or read defenses on the fly.

The Titans have an outstanding running game. The Titans knew that rookie Chris Johnson was fast but they had no idea that he could run inside the way he does. He is establishing himself as one of the top half dozen runners in the league and can take a simple plunge or wheel route to the endzone. USC second banana LenDale White will have the same role this year in Tennessee. White has slimmed down to 229 and looks faster while not losing his power. He is in a contract year and won’t be back in 2010. FB Ahmard Hall is vastly underrated.

The Titans got Steeler UFA WR Nate Washington to sign and he will start opposite last year wideout Justin Gage. Washington was the 3^rd WR last year in Pittsburgh but is expected to be the deep threat and top option in 09. He is not a top 15 WR. Gage will be the possession pass catcher and is good at that role. The reserves are thin with that group including the talented but baby bean green Kenny Britt and a bunch of stiffs.

The team will use 2 TEs a lot again and have a couple of the best in the league. Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler can both block and catch. Neither will get deep but can control the short middle of the field.

The O line isn’t full of brand names but the line works well together and is rock solid. LT Michael Roos, C Kevin Mawae and RG Jake Scott are all pro bowl quality and starters LG Eugene Amano RT David Stewart are good in this system and getting better. Backup C/G Leroy Harris is capable of filling in any of the inside spots.

The one question mark on the team is the D line’s ability to continue to play at a high level without the traded DT Albert Haynesworth. Tony Brown who played LDT will probably get that job with Jason Jones replacing Brown unless either Jovan Haye or Sen’Derrick Marks take his place. RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch is going to have to return to top form after a groin problem last year and Dave Ball will play opposite him on first and second down. The freak Jevon Kearse returns to the Titans this season and should be a force again in passing situations.

RLB Keith Bulluck leads the backers and is outstanding. LLB David Thornton, MLB Stephen Tulloch are both fine but there is no quality depth so all three will have to stay healthy. Their success will in large part be determined by how well the D line makes up for Hayesworth’s absence.

The Titans have one of the very best D back groups in the league. CBs Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan join FS Michael Griffin and SS Chris Hope to form a group all playing at a pro bowl level. Backups FS/Nickel back Vincent Fuller and SS Donnie Nickey provide both experience and ability.

OVERALL: The Titans are among the top 5 teams in the league in terms of talent. They have to stay healthy as do their competitors to get to the big game. But the Titans also have to overcome their tendency of losing to the Steelers, Pats and Colts in big games. Each of those teams seem to have the mental edge against Tennessee. This year they could well overcome their past losses and get to the Super Bowl but I doubt it. But at the very least, they should make the playoffs and be among the last 4 AFC teams on the board.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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There is a difference between a “star” and a hero. Titan QB Vince Young said at the funeral for Steve McNair that the former Titan QB was a hero to him. Vince, McNair was no hero.

Let me tell you about a real hero. Capt. William C. Smith was on Omaha Red beech 2 hours before the invasion of the Allies on D-Day. He won a Bronze Star with V for valor. He called fire from the battle ships and destroyers against the impenetrable Hitler defenses. For two hours it was just him and around 150,000 well armed and really irritated Germans. I know that fact because he is my father. Vince, THAT is a hero.

The men and women that risk their lives every hour of every day fighting terrorism are heroes and should be acknowledged as such. They all volunteered to go to war to fight so that we could have the freedoms we enjoy. They are real heroes.

The Police and Fire fighters that risk their lives every day to protect all of us are heroes. My brother in law Bill Balentyne has saved a half a dozen people’s lives as an EMT medic. He is a hero.

We all to often attribute the word hero to our sports stars. But that word should never be used about a player. It should be reserved for those that have really earned it. We can enjoy and honor our sports stars but let’s never forget that we have real heroes to honor with the word.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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We have seen in the last few years an infection of political correctness in sports that has to go.

To the NFL—No Fun League, we need to realize that sports is entertainment. There is nothing wrong with a touchdown celebration. While some are just stupid, most are creative and add to the game. There is nothing wrong with the fun bunch in Washington celebrating a score together. Even the Chad formerly known as Johnson has shown creativity in celebrating touchdowns.

The argument is that celebrations insult the team that was scored upon. I remind those that hold that position that the NFL is BIG BOY FOOTBALL. These guys are making millions of dollars playing a game. If their tender little egos are that badly damaged, they can afford to go to counseling. And for those that would need to find themselves in a sport that allows celebrations, give them a map!

In the same vain, it is time that bad refereeing be pulled out from under the rug of total protection from the league. Errors are made and should be acknowledged. Every time a coach is fined for telling the truth about a bad call, the league loses creditability with the fans. The fragile ego’s of the officials, both zebra on the field and those in the league office, must be ignored. Just like politicians, if you can’t take the criticism, get out of the business.

To Vince Young—When you score less than a 10 on the Wonderlick test, you may not be bright enough to play QB in the NFL. Learn the playbook or get used your athletic skills in another profession.

Major League Baseball, the NBA, and college sports—You all need to stop bowing to the gods of political correctness as well. Get some guts and get tough on steroids. Give the coaches freedom of speech about officials. They won’t run away crying. They are big boys and girls as well.

And while I’m at it—while I have to use my electric blanket in June in Ohio, the next politician that tells me we should be paying $5 a gallon for gas to fight global warming should be voted off the island immediately.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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As things have worked out so far, the 2006 draft was not exactly the fountain of NFL quarterbacking excellence it was thought to be. That isn’t unusual. It is virtually impossible to judge a draft until 3 years have passed. Jay Cutler was taken by the Broncos and has done well enough to start. But even he was considered trade bait by new HC Josh McDaniels. So let’s take a look at 4 QB’s drafted in 06 that were supposed to be the future of the teams that picked them.

Vince Young TN #3-06 Earlier this off season, Young said he was not happy about being told he would back up Kerry Collins again in 2009. Now he has told The Sporting News and anyone else that will listen that he wants to start for Tennessee or be traded to a team that will start him.

In Young’s first year he started the last 13 games. The team went 8-5 over that stretch but it had very little to do with Young’s passing. His 51.5% competition rate and passer rating of 66.7 didn’t get it done. In 07, he started all but 1 game and had increased his competition rate to 62.3% but the 9 TDs were overshadowed by his 17 interceptions. Again, a 71.1 passer rating is not good enough.

When he was drafted there was talk about he and Mike Vick being the new bread of QBs in the NFL. Not so much. Both were victims of the learning curve in at the pro level and the transition from the college spread offense to the NFL under center passing game. They have taken somewhat related paths since then—Vick in prison for dog fighting and Young in the dog house of the coaching staff of the Titans.

Analysis: Vince—here is the problem. You are fundamentally unsound. Your mechanics are horrible. Your competition rate is inconsistent and you have never mastered the playbook. Until you are able to be consistent and execute the playbook effectively, expect to be riding the aluminum and carrying the clipboard for whatever team you end up with. Even if Collins gets hurt, I am not convinced that Young will get the call to replace him for any length of time.

I do not believe that Young will ever succeed at QB. The best he will ever achieve is a very good wild cat style QB. Young can not read defenses. He can not learn the playbook. He can not seem to get his mechanics straightened out.

Matt Leinart AZ #10-06 Like Vince Young, Leinart was a can’t miss prospect. He was shocked that he fell to the 10^th overall pick. He was smart. He came from the pro style offense of USC and he was a winner. He was allowed to start from the 5^th game on due to an injury to Kurt Warner from a totally inept line. Leinart did OK but his 74.0 passer rating wasn’t good enough to guarantee him the job in 07. With a new coaching staff, Leinart lost the QB competition to Warner in many minds but was still named the starter. In game 3, Warner was put in to try to pull the game out in the second half. Warner went 15 for 20 2 TDs and a QB rating of 150 against the Ravens. That was the beginning of the end for Leinart starting.

In 08 there was little doubt that Warner would be the starter. There was a preseason competition, but Warner started and led the team to the NFC West title and the Super Bowl.

Analysis: Leinart is probably the QB of the future for the Cards. The only question is when will the future get here. He clearly has not progressed along with the rest of the team. His 2.25 million salary cap is friendly enough to keep him around. Warner will play another couple of years most likely. Then, maybe, it will be Leinart time.

Kellen Clemens NJ #49-06 A second round QB does not have the pressure that a early first round pick carries into camp. He started most of the games in the second half of 2007 taking over for an injured Chad Pennington. His 52% competition rate and 60.9 QB rating was less than impressive. Even so, he went into the 08 season with a chance to win the starting QB position from Pennington. But when the owner decided he wanted to grab the back page of the Post by signing Bret Favre, Clemens was second string and Pennington was history.

Analysis: This season, the Jets traded up to get Mark Sanchez with the 5^th pick. Clemens will be a reserve or elsewhere in 09.

Tarvaris Jackson MN #64-06 Jackson has been the designated starter for the Vikes since the end of the 06 season. In 07 he started 12 games but was hurt badly enough to miss 4 others. He amassed a 70.8 passer rating and 58.2 competition percentage. The team depended on the running of Adrian Peterson. When the opponent put 87 guys on the line of scrimmage, the Vikes offense stalled because Jackson was too inaccurate to take advantage of the situation.

Analysis: It is looking more and more like Jackson will get “Favred” like Pennington and Clemens did last year. Expect Favre to come if he can lift a football above his shoulder and maybe even if he can’t. Jackson is not going to be the future QB of the Vikes. After a second Favre disaster in 2 years for 2 teams, the Vikes will make other arrangements.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

If you draft out of fear of failure you will fail.

By Bill Smith

Given all the failures of QBs early in the NFL draft over the recent years, this year there is more talk than ever of drafting not to fail. The new administration of the Lions is going to have to byte the bullet about their first overall pick.

There was the first overall pick in 1999 with the Browns taking QB Tim “I’m on the” Couch (Kentucky). The team never has recovered.

That same year the Bengals drafted Akili Smith (Oregon) with the 3^rd pick overall. The Bengals ended up drafting QB Carson Palmer (USC).

There was the first overall pick in 2002 with the Texans taking QB David Carr (BYU). The Texans languished for 5 years before putting their QB on the used Carr lot.

In 2006, Arizona took Matt Leinart (USC) with the 10^th pick. He now holds the clip board for 38 year old Kurt Warner.

There was the first overall pick in 2007 with the Raiders taking JaMarcus Russell (LSU). A herd of coaches have yet to make him a NFL quality QB.

Although Vince Young (Texas) was the 3^rd pick overall, it has stunted the playoff success of the Titans.

No wonder the Lions are a little squeamish about drafting a QB with the first overall pick. But here is the deal—IF (and only if) you feel that Matt Stafford (Georgia) is a franchise QB, you have to draft him. Failing to take a franchise QB out of fear of failure is a recipe for years to come. And most of those years will be managed by your replacements in the front office.

As you know, I have reservations about Stafford. His decision making leaves a lot to be desired. Some of that may be that he depends on his strong arm too much. But throws you shouldn’t make in college will result in touchdowns for the opponent in the NFL. But Stafford is very bright and with tape study and work on the field, he can improve his decision making. His footwork and mechanics are also in need of work. But those too can be fixed.

Last year the Dolphins had the first pick and took an O lineman Jake Long (LT Michigan) with that pick and QB Chad Henne (Michigan) with a 2^nd round pick. The Lions are not going to be able to do that this year. If they pass on Stafford, chances are the other two supposedly 1^st round picks Mark Sanchez (USC) and Josh Freeman (Kansas St.) will be gone by the 20^th pick. I don’t have any other QB rated in the second or third round.

Like it or not, the Lions have very few choices other than Stafford. One possibility would be to trade for QB Derek Anderson (Browns). He is a young but somewhat proven QB with a strong arm that would make the Lions offense better. Then they could draft an LT with the first pick and either later this year or next pick up a QB of the future. That is the safe choice. But if they feel that Stafford is franchise QB, they have to go for it.

Such are the decisions that make a GM famous or if it doesn’t work out, unemployed. That is how so many ex-GMs end up on ESPN.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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