When the Titans were the Houston Oilers, then head coach Buddy Ryan said that they had knocked on the door of the AFC Championship a couple of times and promised to kick it down next year. They didn’t and he was gone a season later.

For most of last year, the Titans were considered by nearly everyone the best team in the AFC if not the NFL. Then they lost to the Jets and that seemed to take the heart out of the team. They ended up doing what they have for all the Super Bowls but 2000—watching from the sidelines. This year could be different, but don’t bet the house on it unless you have a balloon payment due on it soon. Chances are 4-1 they will be the second or third best team in the conference. It will take luck and avoiding injuries to get the Titans to big game.

Former starting quarterback Vince Young will be fighting a possibly terminal case of splinters from carrying the clip board all year. Kerry Collins is the starter and Young has done absolutely nothing to win over the coaching staff or the team other than run his mouth. Collins is calm, accurate, very instinctive and has an above average arm. Young has an above average mouth and arm but has yet to put in the time to learn the playbook or read defenses on the fly.

The Titans have an outstanding running game. The Titans knew that rookie Chris Johnson was fast but they had no idea that he could run inside the way he does. He is establishing himself as one of the top half dozen runners in the league and can take a simple plunge or wheel route to the endzone. USC second banana LenDale White will have the same role this year in Tennessee. White has slimmed down to 229 and looks faster while not losing his power. He is in a contract year and won’t be back in 2010. FB Ahmard Hall is vastly underrated.

The Titans got Steeler UFA WR Nate Washington to sign and he will start opposite last year wideout Justin Gage. Washington was the 3^rd WR last year in Pittsburgh but is expected to be the deep threat and top option in 09. He is not a top 15 WR. Gage will be the possession pass catcher and is good at that role. The reserves are thin with that group including the talented but baby bean green Kenny Britt and a bunch of stiffs.

The team will use 2 TEs a lot again and have a couple of the best in the league. Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler can both block and catch. Neither will get deep but can control the short middle of the field.

The O line isn’t full of brand names but the line works well together and is rock solid. LT Michael Roos, C Kevin Mawae and RG Jake Scott are all pro bowl quality and starters LG Eugene Amano RT David Stewart are good in this system and getting better. Backup C/G Leroy Harris is capable of filling in any of the inside spots.

The one question mark on the team is the D line’s ability to continue to play at a high level without the traded DT Albert Haynesworth. Tony Brown who played LDT will probably get that job with Jason Jones replacing Brown unless either Jovan Haye or Sen’Derrick Marks take his place. RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch is going to have to return to top form after a groin problem last year and Dave Ball will play opposite him on first and second down. The freak Jevon Kearse returns to the Titans this season and should be a force again in passing situations.

RLB Keith Bulluck leads the backers and is outstanding. LLB David Thornton, MLB Stephen Tulloch are both fine but there is no quality depth so all three will have to stay healthy. Their success will in large part be determined by how well the D line makes up for Hayesworth’s absence.

The Titans have one of the very best D back groups in the league. CBs Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan join FS Michael Griffin and SS Chris Hope to form a group all playing at a pro bowl level. Backups FS/Nickel back Vincent Fuller and SS Donnie Nickey provide both experience and ability.

OVERALL: The Titans are among the top 5 teams in the league in terms of talent. They have to stay healthy as do their competitors to get to the big game. But the Titans also have to overcome their tendency of losing to the Steelers, Pats and Colts in big games. Each of those teams seem to have the mental edge against Tennessee. This year they could well overcome their past losses and get to the Super Bowl but I doubt it. But at the very least, they should make the playoffs and be among the last 4 AFC teams on the board.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Of all the athletes that would meet with a violent end, Steve McNair was the most unlikely. He was 2005 NFL Man of the Year, a respected family man and one of the most beloved players ever to have had a pro career. Even so, he met with a violent and premature death. We all morn the loss of McNair.

At this point, it is not totally clear exactly what happened. But it should raise a red flag to every athlete and every parent of an athlete. The lesson is this—your friends can be more dangerous than your enemies. They are closer to you more often than your enemies and will use your feelings for them to take advantage of you.

Every year the NFL holds a symposium for the drafted rookie players. Both current and retired players tell the newbies about the dangers that face all professional athletes. Some friends just want tickets—OK probably a lot of tickets to games. But other friends will tell athletes that they should never forget where they came from.

Part of remembering where they came from is the habits that their friends have. Those habits may have cost Pacman Jones and Donte Stallworth their careers. It was a cousin of Mike Vick that put him behind bars for 2 years and probably cost him his career.

Most young men have no fear. They never consider the dangers to which their friends subject them. Athletes have even a bigger ego and feeling of indestructibility. From the time of little league, they have been told they are special. They collect hangers on that want to stand in the light that is reflected off of a star athlete. They also want a chance at the money that he can earn.

If you are the parent of a young athlete use the tragedy of Steve McNair to explain the dangers of friends. The future you save will be that of your son or daughter.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Today is the 65^th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. My Dad was the first American on Omaha Red beach 2 hours before the invasion. Today, we salute all those that risked or gave their lives to help free Europe from Hitler.

Best Email of the last 2 weeks: from James on “The Cavs are a 1972 Comet with a Ferrari engine.” too bad Lebron and the Cavs failed to reach the championships… was rooting for them! I just do not know what will happen of the team if Kobe comes in… the dynamics of team will likely change, but if they get past that they’d get a huge chance in grabbing the title next year…

James: The chances of Kobe coming are very slim. But you are exactly correct in that the team is going to have to have a rebuild this off season to become a championship caliber team in time to win a title for LeBron next season. Thanks for your comment.

Updates on previous columns:

Mangenious and his Magical Bus trip

The NFLPA is investigating the Magical Bus trip of 10 hours each way to the football camp outside of Hartford Conn. that Eric Mangini forced on the 19 Browns rookies. Of course Mangini flew to Hartford and was planning to fly back until someone smarter than him suggested how bad that would look. Let’s hope the league fines Mangenious a couple of hundred thousand dollars and gives it to those that took the bus.

LeBron is LeGone

Lebron James was fined $25,000 by the NBA for failing to speak to the media after the loss to the Magic in game 6 of their Eastern Conference Finals. Initially, the league announced that he would not be fined. In an interview on ESPN Radio, Comm. Stern the day after that announcement was made, Stern said he was looking into the issue.

What do you do with a young benched starting QB?

Titans coach Jeff Fisher told the press that “eventually” Vince Young will be the starting QB. Fisher told the press that Young has been spending time in the weight room.

My Advice: Vince, get out of the weight room and camp in the film room. The problem is your understanding of the playbook and reading coverage not your arm strength.

Niblets fresh off the cob:

The NFLPA reaches a settlement with retired players

Retired NFL players had filed suit against the NFLPA to get a part of the money flow of the various marketing deals that the NFLPA gets. According to ex-Packer and Hall of Fame DB Herb Adderley who filed the suit, the settlement gives retired players 26.25 million dollars. This is only one issue between current and retired players.

Exec. Dir. DeMaurice Smith told a meeting of active and retired players that benefits for retired players would be reduced by 80% if the NFL Owners lock the players out after 2011. This will be one more potential suit for Adderley to file against the NFLPA.

The Lakers win game 1 by 25.

The Lakers looked good Thursday night against the Magic. According to several sources, the Lakers are much more focused in the finals because of their loss last year to the Celtics. We will see. If they play the way they did against the Nuggets, the Lakers will lose again. Magic C Dwight Howard is not going to score just 12 points often. Neither returning all star PG Jameer Nelson or Rafer Alston played particularly well. Nelson, coming off an injury, should get better with more practice to shake off the rust.

The NHL series is all tied up.

After Pittsburgh won the first two games at home, many pundants wrote that the series was over. Not so fast. The Red Wings looked tired and slow compared to the younger Penguins. The scheduling of back to back games has helped the Pens. But to win, the Pens are going to have to win game 5 at Detroit. I don’t believe that they can win a game 7 in hostile territory against a seasoned team like the Wings.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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As things have worked out so far, the 2006 draft was not exactly the fountain of NFL quarterbacking excellence it was thought to be. That isn’t unusual. It is virtually impossible to judge a draft until 3 years have passed. Jay Cutler was taken by the Broncos and has done well enough to start. But even he was considered trade bait by new HC Josh McDaniels. So let’s take a look at 4 QB’s drafted in 06 that were supposed to be the future of the teams that picked them.

Vince Young TN #3-06 Earlier this off season, Young said he was not happy about being told he would back up Kerry Collins again in 2009. Now he has told The Sporting News and anyone else that will listen that he wants to start for Tennessee or be traded to a team that will start him.

In Young’s first year he started the last 13 games. The team went 8-5 over that stretch but it had very little to do with Young’s passing. His 51.5% competition rate and passer rating of 66.7 didn’t get it done. In 07, he started all but 1 game and had increased his competition rate to 62.3% but the 9 TDs were overshadowed by his 17 interceptions. Again, a 71.1 passer rating is not good enough.

When he was drafted there was talk about he and Mike Vick being the new bread of QBs in the NFL. Not so much. Both were victims of the learning curve in at the pro level and the transition from the college spread offense to the NFL under center passing game. They have taken somewhat related paths since then—Vick in prison for dog fighting and Young in the dog house of the coaching staff of the Titans.

Analysis: Vince—here is the problem. You are fundamentally unsound. Your mechanics are horrible. Your competition rate is inconsistent and you have never mastered the playbook. Until you are able to be consistent and execute the playbook effectively, expect to be riding the aluminum and carrying the clipboard for whatever team you end up with. Even if Collins gets hurt, I am not convinced that Young will get the call to replace him for any length of time.

I do not believe that Young will ever succeed at QB. The best he will ever achieve is a very good wild cat style QB. Young can not read defenses. He can not learn the playbook. He can not seem to get his mechanics straightened out.

Matt Leinart AZ #10-06 Like Vince Young, Leinart was a can’t miss prospect. He was shocked that he fell to the 10^th overall pick. He was smart. He came from the pro style offense of USC and he was a winner. He was allowed to start from the 5^th game on due to an injury to Kurt Warner from a totally inept line. Leinart did OK but his 74.0 passer rating wasn’t good enough to guarantee him the job in 07. With a new coaching staff, Leinart lost the QB competition to Warner in many minds but was still named the starter. In game 3, Warner was put in to try to pull the game out in the second half. Warner went 15 for 20 2 TDs and a QB rating of 150 against the Ravens. That was the beginning of the end for Leinart starting.

In 08 there was little doubt that Warner would be the starter. There was a preseason competition, but Warner started and led the team to the NFC West title and the Super Bowl.

Analysis: Leinart is probably the QB of the future for the Cards. The only question is when will the future get here. He clearly has not progressed along with the rest of the team. His 2.25 million salary cap is friendly enough to keep him around. Warner will play another couple of years most likely. Then, maybe, it will be Leinart time.

Kellen Clemens NJ #49-06 A second round QB does not have the pressure that a early first round pick carries into camp. He started most of the games in the second half of 2007 taking over for an injured Chad Pennington. His 52% competition rate and 60.9 QB rating was less than impressive. Even so, he went into the 08 season with a chance to win the starting QB position from Pennington. But when the owner decided he wanted to grab the back page of the Post by signing Bret Favre, Clemens was second string and Pennington was history.

Analysis: This season, the Jets traded up to get Mark Sanchez with the 5^th pick. Clemens will be a reserve or elsewhere in 09.

Tarvaris Jackson MN #64-06 Jackson has been the designated starter for the Vikes since the end of the 06 season. In 07 he started 12 games but was hurt badly enough to miss 4 others. He amassed a 70.8 passer rating and 58.2 competition percentage. The team depended on the running of Adrian Peterson. When the opponent put 87 guys on the line of scrimmage, the Vikes offense stalled because Jackson was too inaccurate to take advantage of the situation.

Analysis: It is looking more and more like Jackson will get “Favred” like Pennington and Clemens did last year. Expect Favre to come if he can lift a football above his shoulder and maybe even if he can’t. Jackson is not going to be the future QB of the Vikes. After a second Favre disaster in 2 years for 2 teams, the Vikes will make other arrangements.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• NFC Draft grades

Fryingpan Sports

If you draft out of fear of failure you will fail.

By Bill Smith

Given all the failures of QBs early in the NFL draft over the recent years, this year there is more talk than ever of drafting not to fail. The new administration of the Lions is going to have to byte the bullet about their first overall pick.

There was the first overall pick in 1999 with the Browns taking QB Tim “I’m on the” Couch (Kentucky). The team never has recovered.

That same year the Bengals drafted Akili Smith (Oregon) with the 3^rd pick overall. The Bengals ended up drafting QB Carson Palmer (USC).

There was the first overall pick in 2002 with the Texans taking QB David Carr (BYU). The Texans languished for 5 years before putting their QB on the used Carr lot.

In 2006, Arizona took Matt Leinart (USC) with the 10^th pick. He now holds the clip board for 38 year old Kurt Warner.

There was the first overall pick in 2007 with the Raiders taking JaMarcus Russell (LSU). A herd of coaches have yet to make him a NFL quality QB.

Although Vince Young (Texas) was the 3^rd pick overall, it has stunted the playoff success of the Titans.

No wonder the Lions are a little squeamish about drafting a QB with the first overall pick. But here is the deal—IF (and only if) you feel that Matt Stafford (Georgia) is a franchise QB, you have to draft him. Failing to take a franchise QB out of fear of failure is a recipe for years to come. And most of those years will be managed by your replacements in the front office.

As you know, I have reservations about Stafford. His decision making leaves a lot to be desired. Some of that may be that he depends on his strong arm too much. But throws you shouldn’t make in college will result in touchdowns for the opponent in the NFL. But Stafford is very bright and with tape study and work on the field, he can improve his decision making. His footwork and mechanics are also in need of work. But those too can be fixed.

Last year the Dolphins had the first pick and took an O lineman Jake Long (LT Michigan) with that pick and QB Chad Henne (Michigan) with a 2^nd round pick. The Lions are not going to be able to do that this year. If they pass on Stafford, chances are the other two supposedly 1^st round picks Mark Sanchez (USC) and Josh Freeman (Kansas St.) will be gone by the 20^th pick. I don’t have any other QB rated in the second or third round.

Like it or not, the Lions have very few choices other than Stafford. One possibility would be to trade for QB Derek Anderson (Browns). He is a young but somewhat proven QB with a strong arm that would make the Lions offense better. Then they could draft an LT with the first pick and either later this year or next pick up a QB of the future. That is the safe choice. But if they feel that Stafford is franchise QB, they have to go for it.

Such are the decisions that make a GM famous or if it doesn’t work out, unemployed. That is how so many ex-GMs end up on ESPN.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

Will Vince Young ever be an NFL quality QB?

Kerry Collins and Vince Young

By Bill Smith

This week head coach of the Titans Jeff Fisher said that he wants Kerry Collins, the 36 year old free agent, back as the starter in 2009. That was bad news for Vince Young.

Collins played well but not spectacularly in 08 leading the Titans to the best record in the AFC with a QB rating of 80.2. He threw 12 TDs and 7 interceptions but managed the game very well taking maximum advantage of one of the top running games in the league. He had threatened to retire unless he was “promised” a starting job. He has never been a top QB and has a career passing rating of only 73.8.

Young was the 3^rd overall pick in the 06 draft. He took over the starting QB spot in the 4^th game of 06 and led the team to an 8-5 record including 6 wins in a row. The wins overshadowed a less than acceptable performance by Young. He had a QB rating of just 66.7 with 12 touchdowns but 13 interceptions. In 07 he started 15 game missing only week 7 against Houston due to injury. However, he was relieved by Collins in 4 other games. He took the Titans to an 9-6 record but again was only able to manage a 71.1 passer rating with 9 TDs and 17 interceptions. That is not acceptable in the NFL.

By the start of the 08 season Fisher decided that Young needed a little more seasoning. He sat and Collins started.

So why couldn’t a top draft choice like Young beat out a weak armed transient veteran like Collins? Right now the Titans are wondering if Young will ever become an NFL quality quarterback.

Young can’t read defenses. At Texas, he never had to. He would look for his primary receiver. If that guy was covered, he would run. There wasn’t much of a play book which suited Young just fine. Young was so good an athlete that he didn’t need one. He and the Longhorns used his athleticism to win games. In the NFL, he makes bad reads that result in interceptions. Coaches who let a QB throw more picks than touchdowns get fired.

In the NFL, Young struggled with his footwork and that led to inaccuracy. In Texas, he worked from a shotgun most of the time. While all young QBs coming from a college spread offense have a learning curve, Young never seemed to turn the corner. He made exactly the same read mistakes in game 17 that he made in game 1. He also tended to stare down a receiver. That leads to picks.

He also won’t throw the ball unless the receiver is open. In the NFL, you have to throw a receiver open. You throw the ball to give the receiver a chance to make the play. Players in college are wide open most of the time. In the NFL, the weakest CB is better than the best CB on any college team. Receivers don’t get that open. Young never developed the anticipation necessary to make big plays in the NFL. Watching Kurt Warner will show what great anticipation can do for a QB and a team.

The NFL uses much more complex defenses than college. Most colleges use man and zone and some use a zone blitz. In the NFL, there are combination man/zone defenses, rotating zones, and dozens of multiple blitzes. An NFL QB must be able to learn what an opponent does and adjust to it on the fly. He has to process this information, determine who will be open based on the coverage and get rid of the ball in no more than 2.5 seconds. Young has not been able to do that and worse yet, he may never be able to.

There are indications that he may be too emotional to ever be a successful NFL QB. When a team wins, the QB is loved by everyone. When a the team loses, too often the QB is the goat. Young never had to experience that much in high school or at Texas. He has not taken it well in the pros.

The truth is that the biggest problem might be that Young just isn’t smart enough to be an NFL QB. He scored 6 on the Wonderlic Test. If you can’t learn the playbook, and remember the tenancies of the opponent, you won’t win in the NFL. You have to have reviewed so much that you can anticipate exactly what coverage you are going to see. If they change coverage just before the snap, an NFL QB needs to have seen enough film to know what they will do and where the gaps in coverage will be. Young just can’t do that.

In my opinion, Young will never make it as a starting NFL QB. He is such a great athlete that he could be spectacular as the wildcat QB. He would be better off as a slash type QB along the lines of Kordell Stewart. The sooner that the Titans realize that and make other arrangements for a QB of the future, the better off they will be in the long run.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

Are teams better off with first time coaches

By Bill Smith

Up until a couple of years ago, NFL owners that were in need of a coach overwhelmingly chose older guys with previous head coaching experience. Then in 2007 things seemed to change. First time HCs seemed to be in vogue.

Mike Smith was the defensive coordinator of the Jaguars from 2003-07. He was not exactly a young first time HC but a first time HC none the less. He was 47 when he was selected as head coach for the Atlanta Falcons. In his first year he led the team which had been 4-12 to the playoffs in 08 and a 11-5 record. He and rookie QB Matt Ryan also helped erase the stain that Mike Vick had caused to the franchise.

In January of 2008, the 1-15 Miami Dolphins hired Tony Sparano as head coach. He had coached the O line for the Cowboys and had 3 years as assistant head coach. He led one of the most inept teams in NFL history to 11-5 and the AFC East championship. Sparano had help. Bill Parcells joined the team as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations for the Miami Dolphins and helped transform the roster.

Also in January 2008, John Harbaugh, another first time coach was hired in Baltimore. His background was 9 years as special teams coach and one season as secondary coach for the Eagles. He inherited a winning team that fallen to 5-11 in 07 from a 13-3 record in 06. When the starting and back up went down QB, Harbaugh turned to a rookie 1^st round choice Joe Flacco. The two led the Ravens to 11-5 record and a wild card spot in the playoffs.

On Jan. 14, 2007 Ken Whisenhunt was hired as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. In 2006 the team had been 5-11 and last in the weak NFC West. In 08 he got the team to 8-8 and second place behind the Seahawks. In 2008 he led the team to 9-7, a NFC West championship and 2 playoff wins. He had been the offensive coordinator of the Steelers for 3 years.

These 4 have had significant success in most cases with a less than quality team. However, two things must be mentioned. First, the record of this group of first time head coaches is not the norm. In total, first year HCs have had a pretty lack luster history. Second, while quick success is nice, will it last? All NFL coaches will be fired at some point. Even those in the Hall of Fame like Paul Brown have been sent packing at some point.

The newest round of hirings of head coaches include both first time HCs and retreads. The Browns hired Eric Mangini who had been fired by the Jets a few days before. My crystal ball tells me that Mangini will do OK and OK will be a great improvement over Romeo Crennel who had no head coaching experience before taking the Browns even further down the tubes. But there are a number of retread coaches with HC experience that are looking for work. Those names include Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan, and Brian Billick all of whom have won Super Bowls. But these 4 teams decided to go the rookie HC route.

Tampa Bay picked Raheem Morris yesterday one day after firing Jon Gruden. Morris who is 32 was discussed yesterday morning on this site. My guess is that Tampa will struggle. Morris had just been selected to be D coordinator and went to get a hair cut for his news conference. When he arrived back at 1 Buccaneer Place, he was the head coach. The Glazer’s said in a press conference that one of the primary reason they selected Morris was that he could relate to the players. That is not the question. The real issue is does he have enough experience to get the respect of the players. Players can tell in the first 10 minutes of the first practice if a coach knows his stuff or not. If Morris isn’t up to the job, the veteran team will eat him alive whether they like him or not. I think Tampa fans are in for a disappointment.

The St. Louis Rams hired Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo as their first time HC. Reportedly, Rex Ryan DC of the Ravens was the teams first choice but owner Chip Rosenbloom decided not to wait for Baltimore to be eliminated from the playoffs. Rosenbloom was also worried that Ryan might opt for the Jets job over that of the Lambs. Spags deserved a lot of credit for the victory of the Giants over the Pats in the Super Bowl. But Spags has only one year of DC experience. Prior to that he had spent 8 years as a defensive position coach with the Eagles. Again I am not convinced he can turn the 2-14 St. Louis Lambs around. While Spags was the top candidate for several jobs, he just doesn’t have the depth of experience to get the most out of a team in desperate need of rebuilding.

Perhaps the best bet to keep his job for more than 4 years is the new head coach of the Lions, Jim Schwartz the Titans defensive coordinator. Schwartz can only hope that the Ford family will give him as many chances as they did for Matt “watch me mess up a franchise” Millen the former GM. Schwartz takes over a team that was historically horrible. It was the only team in NFL history to go 0-16 in a regular season. The biggest problem Schwartz has is the lack of talent both on the field and in the upper management positions of the team. The new executive leadership of the Lions is now in the hands of Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew. Mayhew was the former assistant GM and Lewand was promoted to executive vice president and chief operating officer February 1, 2003. His duties included football administration and player development. In the last 5 season, there has been very little of either. Both of these guys were there while Millen was allowed to run a muck with the roster. That is not a good sign for all 26 Lions fans. Neither of these guys seemed to have enough guts or power to convince the Fords to dump Millen years ago. Millen’s Lions produced the worst 8 year record in NFL history. Those long term problems are not going to be solved by those that were accessories to the carnage. Schwartz has an excellent reputation around the NFL. He was DC with Tennessee for 6 years leading the team to a top 10 finish statistically in almost all those seasons. The Titan defense ended up second in scoring D this season. Defense will be an entirely new concept in Detroit. They haven’t had one in years.

The Broncos replaced Mike Shanahan with Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels had been the Pats OC for only 2 seasons. McDaniels helped fine tune the Pats 07 offense into the highest scoring teams in NFL history. I am sure that having Tom Brady as your QB and Randy Moss and Wes Welker at WR really helped. However, he did have a direct effect on Matt Cassel’s success this season. Of the newbies, I think McDaniels might have the best chance. Unlike when Mangini was hired by the Jets, Bill Belichick gave McDaniels a glowing public reference and wished him the best. However, I am sure that does not include games against the Pats. I expect McDaniels to be fairly successful. However, the Broncos are going to have to get a lot better on defense and more consistent play from their offense to get back to the playoffs.

There are a lot of factors in turning a bad team around. One of the most important is getting the maximum performance out of the talent a coach has. Only time will tell whether the teams that hired first time HC made the right decision. If I am wrong, I will let you know. If they are wrong, it will set their franchises back years.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

Is Sam Bradford making a mistake by staying at Oklahoma?

By Bill Smith

In a previous article I wrote that Tim Tebow made a great decision by staying at Florida. He was going to be a 2^nd or 3^rd round choice this year but could work his way into the first round with a strong senior year. However, I believe that Oklahoma QB Bradford is making a mistake by staying.

I am reminded of QB Matt Leinart of USC. He would have been the first overall pick had he come out as a junior. But he stayed in school for his senior year and fell to the 10^th pick overall in the 2006 draft. Alex Smith from Utah was the first pick of the 49ers. That decision cost Leinart 3.5 million dollars over the first 3 years of his contract.

There is only one first round QB in the 2009 draft—Matt Stafford of Georgia. While USC’s QB Mark Sanchez will probably be drafted in the first round, at this point I don’t see him as a 1^st round talent. QB Akili Smith from Oregon started only one year in the Pac-10 and look how well that turned out for the Bengals.

With no less than 14 teams needing either starting or backup QBs, the need will never be greater and the supply seldom lower. [You can see the list on NFLDraftDog.com in my column about the Browns.] In my opinion, Bradford would have been either the first pick by Detroit or the third pick by Kansas City. Bradford would have taken over the top QB ranking at the combine.

Bradford has better accuracy than Stafford but slightly less arm strength. I’m not big on arm strength. Both Vince Young of Tennessee and JaMarcus Russell of Oakland have great arm strength but couldn’t hit snow if they were passing from the North Pole. The NFL has seen dozens of strong armed QBs crash and burn over the last few years. Joe Montana had average arm strength but it got stronger from lifting so many championship trophies.

Bradford is more of a pocket passer than Stafford and has a little more experience throwing after taking snaps from under center than Stafford. That should translate into less trouble mastering the 3, 5, and 7 step drops so critical to developing accuracy in the NFL. Bradford processes information quickly and is accurate. He completed 68% of his passes with 50 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Stafford is very inconsistent. Even though he has the better team in all but a hand full of games Georgia played, he still often throws interceptions in critical points in the game. He is not nearly as accurate as Bradford completing 61% of his throws but having only 25 TDs and 10 interceptions.

The risk is that Bradford’s stock will drop in his senior year. He loses WRs Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson, and probably Jr. TE Jermaine Gresham. While he will still have some good targets, chances are they will not as good or as consistent as those three. They should all be drafted in the first 3 rounds. He will also be missing at least two of his interior linemen Duke Robinson and Brandon Walker as well as his best tackle Phil Loadholt.

Given all the talent the Sooners will lose, it would make more sense to come out now. He will be running for his life whichever bad NFL team he goes to in 2010 and may have to run from less than optimum pass protection next year at Oklahoma. He might as well get paid to do it.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Frying Pan Sports

The NFL needs to take out the clowns wearing the stripes.

By Bill Smith

Technorati Tags: nfl,football,officials,Ravens,Titans,fans,strike,coach,Big 10,college football

How can you tell the difference between an NFL official and a postal worker? The postal worker is the one that is armed. If the NFL officials continue to rob teams and fans of wins they have earned on the field, the zebras may need to be armed as well.

Officiating in the NFL has been getting steadily worse. The playoff game between Tennessee and Baltimore is just the latest example of ineptness.

The play clock runs out on the Ravens, and no official stops play. The Ravens complete a 32 yard pass and move on to win the game.

A Raven is twisting Tennessee running back Charles Johnson backwards after he is down trying to break his back. One of his linemen come up and pull the offender off. The officials call the lineman for a personal foul.

This was a playoff game. This collection of clowns are supposed to be the best in the league. If these guys are the best, that explains a lot about how sloppy and unprofessional the officiating has been in the regular season.

Any coach or player that even suggests that an official missed a call is fined and or suspended. GET A GRIP. If these guys can’t do a better job than that fire them all and the pinheads that manage them and start over. Even if you get Big 10 officials, it can’t get any better. And the Big 10 officials are nothing to write home about.

These guys are either totally incompetent or are fixing the games. It is impossible to come to any other conclusion. I don’t for a minute believe that the NFL is fixed. I believe the officials are just totally inept.

Anyone that operates without accountability operates inefficiently. That is the problem with football officials in general and NFL officials in particular. When an official screws up, with only one exception, it is the coach that complains about the error that gets fined and sometimes suspended not the official.

Part of the problem is that in general the officials are too old, too fat and way too slow to keep up with the game that gets faster and more complex every year. As a former coach in semi-pro football, I have the scars of someone that took on the officials. I won the battle but the war goes on.

I have also officiated games. It is not easy but how do you fail to notice the play clock expiring or a guy going out of the back of the endzone?

I don’t imply here that the officials intentionally make bad calls or fail to make calls based on a desire for one team to win. They are not athletes and can not keep up with today’s game. Over the years the NFL has adjusted the mechanics of officials to offset the speed issue. But no adjustment can be enough to make up for a bunch of overweight old men trying to keep up with the speed of the NFL game.

It is WAY past time that the NFL make public when an official is suspended or fired. Covering up the errors and omissions of these men is unacceptable. It is also time that the coaches and the players who question decisions of the incompetent officials be labeled as whistle blowers and protected from the Nazi style retribution of the league.

The fans have had more than enough of this crap. The players risk their limbs and futures to win a championship deserve better than these clowns. If that is the best you can do, dump the league because it is getting to the point that it is not worth watching. If it does not improve very soon, it is time for a fan strike. I will be happy to lead it.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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