College football:

As the Big 12 sinks slowly in the west and sun pulls away from the shore we say goodbye to another college conference.

If you want to know where college football is going–follow the money! Nebraska will sign with the Big 10 Friday. That will allow the league to become the Big 12 because the majority of other teams in the conference formerly known as the Big 12 are deserting like rats from a sinking ship. Colorado has already gone to the PAC 10. It is expected to be followed by the Texas and Oklahoma teams soon. The PAC 10 will become the first “Super” conference with 16 teams.

The question is why is all this change going on? The answer is money. Nothing is more greedy than the college presidents around the country. That is why not only do they regularly demand more money from the state legislature but college fees to students have increased at 10 times the rate of inflation over the last 25 years.

The Big 10 gets 88 cents for every subscriber to the conference TV network. With the addition of a big name football school like Nebraska, look for that fee to go up. The viewers in Nebraska are out of the “primary” market so the conference will get only 8 cents for each subscriber there. However, the Big 10+2 will likely vote the newcomer a full share of the booty.

The Big 12 had a lousy TV contract. The teams that are leaving to go to the PAC 10+6 believe that conference will get a REALLY good TV deal under the new configuration.

Look for the ACC to bring Miami into their league plus someone else.  That would help them be less likely to be savaged by another league.  The funny thing is that had Notre Dame agreed to be the 12th Big 10 team, none of this might have happened.

The one thing you won’t see ANYWHERE else.

When the Big 10+2 becomes 16 and the PAC 10+6 get together, they will be able to put a great deal of pressure on the NCAA.  Most media people are complaining about the demise of the Big 12.  This change could well get us closer to the NCAA BcS Playoff that we all want.  The super conferences are going to be in a much more powerful position to push the NCAA into making changes to help the game.

USC gets its comeuppance!

The NCAA has hit the USC football program with a 30 scholarship reduction and a 2 year ban on bowl games as a result of the 5 year study into their lack of institutional control. When you lose 10 scholarships each year for 3 years, it will greatly impact your program.  This will really take USC out of the running for the top athletes for the next 2 years because a top 100 kid would not want to be banned from a shot at a bowl.

The USC basketball program was excluded from the NCAA tournament for a single year.  That was served last year by the team with a self-imposed penalty.

The NFLPA sues the NFL over the TV deal in 2011.

This is another “I told you so.” Over 6 months ago, I predicted that the NFLPA and DeMaurice Smith would sue over the TV deal that will pay the league even if there is no football in 2011. I will keep an eye on this for you but you can bet the farm that it will not move the league and the union any closer to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

The Sports Buffet will be a regular feature of FPS.

NFL

UFA S FS Darren Sharper (NO) is reported to have had microfracture knee surgery during the off season according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Sharper was a key part of the Saints D and their playoff run. The typical recovery time for that procedure is 18-24 months. That would also explain why he had such a delay in getting a contract offer. He has signed back with the Saints on a 1 year deal for 1.5M.

The Jones formerly known as “Pacman” is still shopping his services around the league. He went to Detroit last week and visited the Bengals recently. There was no interest by the Lions but the Bengals are at least considering an offer.

The 49ers signed LB Patrick Willis to a new 5 year deal worth 50M with 29M guaranteed.

With the draft of QB Tim Tebow, QB Brady Quinn could be on the move again. The Jags are reported to be interested in obtaining the former Browns 1st round pick.

NBA

There is a very fine line between a veteran team and just an “over the hill” team. Teams can go from one side of that line to the other in a single playoff series. The problem is that there is no way back except to blow the roster up and rebuild. After building a 11 point lead in game 1 vs. the Cavs, the Celts looked like they crossed the line at half time by losing the game by 8. However, they came back in game 2 and now have stolen home court advantage. The most interesting part of that game was that the “old” Celts outscored the Cavs 31-12 in the 3rd quarter. There is an old adage, in the NBA it isn’t a series until a home team loses a game. Now that the Celts have smacked the Cavs up side the head, it will be interesting to see if the Cavs can recover.

MLB

It is still VERY early in the season but there are a couple of things we can see now. The Red Sox are reeling. At 12-14 they are digging themselves a hole that will be very hard to crawl out of. They look old and done. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has gotten off to a really good start. It is hard to see them challenging the Yanks all year but they are playing well now. My two favorite teams are looking forward to high picks in this year’s draft–The Cubs and Indians.

NHL

The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking for a new coach AGAIN! Is there anyone out there that can turn what seems to be a team with a couple of very good players into a winner. If not, the city of Columbus will let the team leave. Central Ohio will not support a loser and that is all the CBJ have done. In their history they have had just 1 sniff of the playoff coffee beans.

College Football

The new NCAA rule changes include the right of a ref to take a TD off the board if the player “showboats” on his way to the endzone. Having spent some time in zebra stripes myself, I must give the officials some advice. Be VERY careful how and when you make that call. If it were made against the home team at Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame or any number of CFB hotbeds, it might result in a tumult that would make the Hundred Years War seem like a minor disagreement between two 3 year old girls at a church picnic.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Best comment of the month: 96 Teams in the NCAA Tournament is the worst idea since the BcS selection process.

Crime Scene Cleanup Tucson said “I completely agree with you..More teams is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Gotta be the money…”

CSC you hit it on the nose. The plan that came out after my editorial was that the NCAA planned to bid out every game between the 5 networks to increase the take. Check out the update below.

Updates on FPS Stories:

96 Teams in the NCAA Tournament is the worst idea since the BcS selection process.

The NCAA announced this week that they had scrapped the 96 team plan. They will add 3 play-in games for the spots to play the top seeds in each region. That is a much better solution. Let’s hope that the NCAA Executive committee stays away from the funny mushrooms.

The Steelers are having off field problems with their players.

The Ex-Steeler now Jet Santanio Holmes had another run in with authorities. According to the airline personnel he refused to turn off his iPod when the plane was landing. He claimed and the police report confirms that he turned it off but did not remove the headphones.  He was not charged but can expect another call from the Commish. He might get his suspension extended but maybe not.

Super Values in the NFL Draft 2

Several players from my list were taken. That list included O’Brien Schofield OLB Wisconsin (4th round Cardinals), Jamar Wall CB Texas Tech (6th Cowboys), and Doug Worthington DT Ohio State (7th Steelers).

Who SHOULD the Browns draft?

The Browns ended up taking Larry Asante SS Nebraska in the 5th round and WR Carlton Mitchell South Florida in the 6th. As I told radio audiences in 4 states, the draft parties for Browns fans prior to Holmgren taking over this draft were more suicide prevention support group meetings than celebrations of the Browns picks.

Niblets fresh from the cob:

General thoughts about the Draft

QB was the position that fell the farthest. As I predicted Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame fell to the 2nd round 48th pick (Panthers). That pushed the other QBs down as well. Colt Coy QB Texas was taken in the 3rd round pick 85 (Browns). John Skelton QB Fordham was taken in the 5th round pick 155 (Cards); Tony Pike QB Cincinnati (Panthers 6-204), and Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan (Bears 6-181). There is a lot less risk in taking a QB after the 2nd round.

The Bryant interview the the Dolphins

Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross will not punish general manager Jeff Ireland for asking WR prospect Dez Bryant about his mother’s profession. There is some difference of opinion about exactly what was asked. Ireland issued a statement of the conversation that Bryant disputed.

SS Lawyer Milloy signed a 1 year deal with the Seahawks.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Here are some more super values in the draft. The secret to any draft is how well the team does in the 3-7th rounds. Here are some more guys I think will be outstanding players picked lower in the draft.

Jamar Wall CB Texas Tech 5-10 204

Overall:

Walls has a rep for being inconsistent but has shown talent. The one question is his speed. Every time I have watched him, he has played well. He played very well in the East West game with 3 passes defended.

Strengths:

He has outstanding ball skills. Part of that comes from practicing against the TTk run and shoot. He has quick hands that can strip the ball away from the WR. Despite his size he can cover larger receivers and despite his speed he seldom takes a wrong step. He looks like he spends a lot of time in the film room because he seems to anticipate patterns well. Catch up speed is not as critical if you don’t ever get too badly beaten. He has the ability to breakdown and make a tackle and hits better than most CBs.

Weaknesses:

He can get over-aggressive and get called for a penalty more often than you would like. He also doesn’t attack the run like he should. That can be taught.

Bottom Line:

Walls will be a 5th round pick that just will be very hard to cut. He will be a good nickle back and may develop into a starter with more commitment to stopping the run.

Rahim Alem DE LSU 6-3 251

Overall:

Alem is one of the DE to OB prospects. He has decent speed and a solid motor. He will get some looks in part because he played well in the East West game.

Strengths:

His specialty is rushing the QB. He has multiple moves and a good punch. He is a knee bender that will get around an OT and take a sharp cut to the ball. He has an above average motor and seems to be causing trouble in the opponent’s backfield on every play. He has a quick first step.

In general he holds the point of attack fairly well but needs to contain the run to his outside a little better.

Weaknesses:

He plays the run on the way to the QB. That can make him miss some RBs. He will also over run plays to his side and lose contain.

Bottom Line:

Alem will be a special team star and will make a team. He should be gone by the middle of the 5th round but could work his way into the 4th.

James Ruffin DE Northern Iowa 6-3 266

Overall:

Ruffin started out as non-draftable. A good performance in the all-star games proved he could play with the top players from the big schools. Teams are starting to notice him.

Strengths:

Ruffin is a candidate for a 4-3 DE pass rush specialist but is not a good prospect for a OB conversion. He anchors the run to his side well but his main talent is rushing the passer. He finishes his pass rush and gets the sack. He has a good motor and will create enough pressure on the O line to get held to prevent him from the sack. He uses his arms well and causes the passer to move or throw the ball away. He can use leverage to get under the OT and get to the QB.

Weaknesses:

He is a pass rush specialist. In the later rounds, the good teams are looking for a player that can do one thing very well. That fits Ruffin perfectly. He is not a candidate for the OB because he lacks the speed and fluid hips to cover receivers. He also is going to have some trouble getting to the 280 range with his weight. He struggles to hold the point of attack against a run right at him. He also does not have as quick a first step as you would want.

His technique needs work. He is really green but has shown enough to be of interest to teams.

Bottom Line:

Ruffin may have worked his way into the 7th round or maybe even the 6th. If he is used right, he can be a nice addition to a team. He will give you everything he has. The only question is does he have enough pass rush to make a roster.

Doug Worthington DT Ohio State 6-5 292

Overall:

Despite playing a Ohio State, Worthington was not highly rated prior to the 09 season. Most scouts think of him as a plunger. But he can do more than that.

Strengths:

Worthington anchors against the run well. He uses his hands and strength well and is aggressive against the run. He has a decent first step and good moves to get around the O lineman to penetrate into the backfield. He attacks the run and is an above average tackler.

He is a better pass rusher than people expect. He gets leverage and can push a G or T back to the QB with a bull rush. He breaks down and if he doesn’t get the sack, he can cause it by getting doubled or pushing the QB into the arms of another defender.

He is capable of being a NT but is more valuable as a 3-4 DE. He tends to play his best in big games.

Weaknesses:

Like a lot of big players, he does not have a constant motor. He will take plays off. He is also not very athletic. He tends to play down to lesser competition. He tends to be a waist bender not a leg bender and runs a 4.96.

Bottom Line:

He is a rotational player that can make some plays in both the pass and the run. I believe in football or basketball, you never have enough good big guys. If the coaching staff can keep him focused and his motor going, he can help a team. He should be drafted late or be a priority free agent.

O’Brien Schofield OLB Wisconsin 6-2 221

Overall:

Schofield played DE at Wisconsin but is a OB conversion prospect. He played in the EW game at OB for the first time and was outstanding. He blew out a knee at the Senior Bowl practices. At the end of the season he was considered a 4th or 5th round prospect. But from his performance at OB in the EW Game, he had moved up into the 3rd round.

Strengths:

He proved by his play at the new position that he could pick up the D of the all star game quickly and had the athleticism to successfully make the change in positions. He showed he could cover the TE or RB out of the backfield effectively. He showed good hands by picking a pass off and returning it. He was able to cover in the short zone effectively.

He has always been solid against the run. He has the quickness and instincts to get outside the run and force it back into his help. He is an effective tackler. He is a high motor guy that is willing to do whatever is necessary. He also will contribute on special teams.

He is a good blitzer with a sense of timing to avoid blockers on a delayed blitz.

Weaknesses:

He did struggle to hold the point of attack against big O lines due to his size. Because of the timing of the injury, he will not be able to contribute in 2010. He also has no 40 time. He was projected to run a 4.63. If he does that well when he comes back he can be an effective OB.

Bottom Line:

Because of the injury he will likely not be drafted. However, he should be signed and put on IR for 2010. He will be like a free early 3rd round pick in 2011 IF there is football then.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Next Wednesday at Noon on Cleveland Sports Radio we will have a live mock draft. Be sure to join us.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

For this article I ignored the potential draft position of the players and rated their performance on the field on game day. Let me say up front that I do not agree with the “experts” that watch the practices and leave on game day. In my years of coaching, I have seen a lot of guys that looked like Tarzan in practice but when the pressure was on in a game they played like Jane.

Blair White WR Michigan State 14 points (4th round)

Blair gets open, has very good hands, and can adjust to bad balls (because he has had so much experience with bad QBs). He was a 4th or 5th projection before the EW game but with a very solid game he has moved into the 4th. The one question about him is speed. He is projected to run a 4.52. At 6-1 200 lbs, that is just OK. If he gets under 4.5 he could get into the 3rd.

Rahim Alem DE Louisiana State 13 pts (3rd)

Alem is 6-3 and 262. That is too light for a starting DE in the pros. He doesn’t really look like he can put on another 30 pounds and keep his speed. He is expected to run a 4.7 40 and depends on that speed to be effective. He could be a pass rush specialist at the next level. He had 2 hurries and caused an interception in the game. He needs work to develop something other than a one move outside rush.

Freddie Barnes WR Bowling Green State 13 pts (5th)

Barnes is one of my favorite value picks. He is only 6′ and 206 and runs a slow 4.58. But he is the prototype slot receiver. Ask Tom Brady how valuable WR Welker is to his offense! Barnes is a high motor guy that will block for the run, get open on short routes, catch the ball in a crowd and will be a pain to any D trying to cover him. He was one of the few weapons at BG and still drove Ds nuts.

James Ruffin DE Northern Iowa 13 pts (5th)

Ruffin is another too light DE. But at 6-4 he has the ability to add bulk and be a starting DE. He played really well and got a hurry and a sack. He also caused a penalty and got a couple of other pass rushes. He is not good at anchoring against the run but more bulk will help. He could be a value pick in the 5th and could go higher if he puts on some good weight and still runs a 4.75-4.8 40.

O’Brien Schofield OB Wisconsin 10 pts (3rd prior to injury)

Schofield reportedly tore his ACL which is a real shame. He had never played LB until the EW game but picked up the position very quickly. He got an interception, had the speed to get wide to stretch out the run, and covered receivers well. Given the injury, he will fall to the 7th round or may not be drafted. He will be an outstanding value for someone but not until 2011.

Andrew Quarless TE Penn State 9pts (6th)

This is a very deep TE draft. As a result, Quarless may drop to the 6th. He is a decent blocker but a good receiver. He gets open, and had 3 nice catches in the game including a TD. He is 6-5 248 and should be able to run a 4.7 40. He will be a nice 2nd TE and does well on special teams.

Doug Worthington DT Ohio State 9pts (7th)

Worthington was a mainstay of the Buckeye D. He had a solid EW game as well. He was doubled a number of times, got half a sack in my grading, and was solid in rushing the passer. He is decent against the run but at 275 could add some weight to get better.

Lindsey Witten DE Connecticut 8pts (4th)

Witten was one of the higher rated players at the EW game. But he is another of the underweight DEs in college. At 264 he needs weight to be a potential starter. But he uses his speed (4.7) to get to the QB. He may not be able to add the weight and keep the speed. At 6-4 he could be a LB conversion as well.

Jamar Wall CB Texas Tech 8pts (5th)

Wall will give you a great play then screw up badly. He scored 14 points with 3 excellent pass breakups but lost points with bad coverage and a penalty. At 5-10 with 4.5 speed, he is going to have to improve his coverage skills to make a team. He will contribute on special teams but will be a risk to draft even in the 5th round.

Reggie Carter IB UCLA 8pts (5th/6th)

Carter is a high motor guy with good instincts and the ability to stop the run. At 243 he will likely end up outside and should be OK there if he runs the 4.7 that he is expected to do at the Combine. He covers receivers fairly well and can contribute on special teams.

Alric Arnett WR West Virginia 8pts (6th)

Drafting a WR from a running team is always a little risky. But Arnett may be the exception. He has decent speed (4.49) good hands and can catch the bad pass. The question is can he get open regularly? He looked good in the game.

Greg Hardy DE Mississippi 8pts (1st or 2nd)

Hardy led the SEC in sacks and came into the game with a low 1st early 2nd round evaluation. I was not that impressed in this game. He played a lot better against Florida and Georgia. He got a sack, and had 2 other nice plays but allowed himself to get caught up in the wash too often against the run. He is an outstanding athlete but didn’t make enough plays in the game. He is going to have to add some weight to be a regular. But that could hurt his speed. At an expected 4.58 in the 40, he need his speed. He too may be a LB conversion prospect but taking a conversion that high is a huge risk.

Stevenson Sylvester OB Utah 8pts (FA)

Sylvester really popped early then disappeared. He attacks the run with great instincts, but he is too small and too slow but showed a great motor early. I have not yet decided how I feel about him but I will let you know when I get deeper into player evaluation.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday morning at 11. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

#1 Alabama

This is the year that Bama needs to win it all. They have 14 senior player that will be given serious consideration in the 2010 NFL draft 9 of whom should be drafted. They have as always some nice underclass talent but with that many guys leaving, a number of the key juniors will likely declare for the draft as well. They can not replace that many front line guys without taking a step back next season. This is their best chance to win the big prize.

Bama O

Bama can throw the ball but make no mistake about it—They need to run the ball to win. RB Ingram (So.) won the Heisman trophy and is outstanding. He has great vision and a very quick first step. He has decent speed and very seldom goes down at first contact. He is patent and uses blocks as well as any back in college. Those qualities are not developed. You either have them or you don’t. He is a good receiver and gets to the edge on screens often. He has 30 catches this year for an average of 10.2 yards which is a lot higher than most RBs.

QB McElroy has a passer rating of 142 but that is a little misleading. He has taken advantage of Ds that played 46 guys at the line of scrimmage to stop the run. He has thrown 17 TDs and has had just 4 picks. He throws a catchable ball with accuracy. He does not throw well under pressure and that could be a problem against Texas.

The Tide has good but not excellent receivers. Soph WRs Jones and Maze are the stars. Jones (6-4) is the big guy over the middle and has 42 catches and 4 TDs. Maze (5-10) is the speed guy with 30 catches for a 17 yard average and 2 TDs. TE Peek (3^rd round) is a combo end with the ability to catch and block for the run. He has 26 catches and 3 TDs.

The O line is outstanding. It is led by All American Johnson (2^nd) and Davis (6^th). The team run blocks as well as any O line in recent years. They pass block well but were recruited to block the run.

Bama D

The D that stopped Florida is led by 2 All Americans (AA)—Butkus winner LB McClain (Jr.) and S Arenas (2^nd). Arenas and SS Woodall (3^rd) give the Tide the best pair of safeties in college. McClain was suffering from stomach problems but he is fine now. DT Cody (top 20 1^st round) anchors the D line. He is the 4^th rated DT in the draft. He fights through double teams to create havoc in the O backfield.

The D stuffs the run and lets the back line make up for any mistakes covering receivers. Given the quality of the back line, that has worked well. But against Texas, they are going to have to be more concerned about getting pressure on the QB and stopping the pass.

Texas

Texas will go as far as AA QB McCoy (1^st) takes them. The team has depended more on his arm than on the run and the D put together.

Texas O

McCoy came back this year to win a championship. Texas was 18^th in passing but 55^th in rushing on O. McCoy has thrown for 3512 yards with 27 TDs and 12 picks. Because the running game has under produced, this year McCoy has taken more chances throwing the ball into coverage than he did last year. That accounted for more picks this year.

McCoy had more rushing attempts than leading RB Newton. Newton averaged 5 yards per carry on 102 attempts. AA second team WR Shipley (late 1 early 2) is by far the leading receiver with 106 catches and 11 TDs. The next highest is WR Williams (So.) with 38.

The O line is led by AA C Hall (4^th), OT Ulatoski (3^rd) and late round prospect G Tanner. The line pass blocks very well. They have not been as successful run blocking. This year the running game has not been up to usual Texas standards. When they have had a close game, they have struggled to close out the game by running.

Texas D

The Texas D may be the most under rated part of this game. The D held Oklahoma to 13, and T exas Tech to 24. They also saved the year for the Horns by keeping Nebraska to 12 points when the O struggled big time. The key to the team on D is the line. DT Houston (2^nd) is the key along with DEs Jones and Acho who are both juniors. Houston keeps at least 2 OL guys busy and that frees up the LBs to attack the ball. OB Kindle (1^st) is a force rushing the passer or stopping the run. He is also dangerous in pass coverage. His running mates Norton (late or FA) and Muckelroy (2^nd) are returning starters and are under appreciated.

The D backfield is good but not great. CB Beasley (FA) is the bell cow but all 4 starters returned this year.

Prediction

I expect a low scoring game. I don’t see either team exploding offensively. The over/under is 45 and the under is the best bet. The line is Bama by 4. I expect them to win but it may be closer than that.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.