Alabama and Texas will play for the mythical BcS championship.

Alabama looked great and Texas got VERY lucky to win its game against Nebraska. Texas tends to play down to the competition too often to be favored against Bama. Texas has been living on luck in several games and their luck runs out against the Tide.

Rose Bowl Ohio State and Oregon.

The Buckeyes are going to have to focus on their running game and stopping the run. Even though they practice against a running QB, the team has always had trouble stopping an offense based around that. Oregon has one of the best running games in college football. All Big 10+1 teams have trouble going west and Oregon has just the kind of team that will give the Buckeyes fits.

Sugar Bowl Florida and Cincinnati

This should be one of the most interesting games of the bowl season. The question is can the Cincy D handle Tebow and the Florida O? I think that TCU would be a better match up for the Gators but they will get Boise. The other question is who will be coaching the Bearcats. Coach Kelly is said to be high on the ND wish list. He will interview this week for that job.

This is a critical game for the Big East to prove that it belongs among the big boys. Florida will be a good test. If you can’t play Big Boy football, it will be obvious.

Fiesta Bowl TCU and Boise State

The Fiesta is going to be a good game but it is too bad that these two teams couldn’t have faced a BcS team. A win against a team like Florida would have given the non BcS teams and leagues a lot of cred. I think that TCU has too much on both sides of the ball for BS.

Orange Bowl Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Iowa got the invitation to Miami rather than Penn State because they won head to head. The Hawkeyes will have to find a way to jump out in front or risk having the Big 10 take another hit to the credibility of the league. Without their starting QB that will be tough. Based on the way things look now, GT wins this game.

We will look at the other bowls next week.

Other news:

WR Golden Tate and QB Jimmy Clausen declare for the NFL Draft. Evidently they don’t care to wait around to see who gets the ND job. That is a great move for Tate. Clausen has not advanced like everyone expected but still will be a prospect with a lot of potential.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

#25 West Virginia @ #5 Cincinnati tonight

Cincy faces a very good challenge tonight. But they also have to play at #12 Pitt in the last game of the season. They have QB Pike fairly healthy but his replacement Collaros has a passer rating of 210. This is a great strength. They will start Collaros tonight. The 2 headed running game of Pead and Ramsey has been outstanding. The real key to the team though is the D. It has stifled some really good offenses around the league.

WV has lost 2 games. They have played well but struggle on D against really good Os. The key will be if WV can stop the run and make Cincy pass when they have to rather than when they would like.

Cincy wins in a closer than expected game.

#1 Florida @ South Carolina

SC has been in and out of the top 25 all year. But losing 3 of their last 4 put them out for good. The team was badly beaten up in the loss to Alabama. They face a Florida team that is playing about as well as it has all year.

Florida has had some struggles but against Georgia seemed to find the O that led it to 2 titles in 3 years. This game will be a closer game than expected because former Gator coach Spurrier always gets his guys up to play his old team.

#2 Alabama @ Mississippi State

3 of MS’s losses have been to ranked teams and each time they played close games against better teams. Their D has fought hard but the O has been the problem. QB Lee has just 4 TDs and 11 picks. Those mistakes have put the D in a lot of bad spots. The running game is OK but will struggle against Bama. MS is tougher at home than on the road.

Bama has the ticket to the SEC Title game in their pocket but need to keep winning to have a shot at the Big game. They will easily and get some of their reserves game experience.

#16 Utah @ #4 TCU

TCU needs to keep winning and this is the biggest game still on their schedule. A big win here will give them a shot at the Big game IF two of the three teams in front of them lose. That is the only way they get into the game and that is a shame. TCU has one of the best D’s in the league. It also has a hard to defend offense that puts incredible pressure on the opponent. QB Dalton has 16 TDs and 3 picks with a yards per attempt of over 9. The running game is an after thought but RB Turner is OK with an average of 5.1.

Utah has only one loss to Oregon and can end the dream of TCU which has knocked them out of the undefeated status in previous years. They still can win the league and get a very good bowl game with a win here and another against #22 BYU. Utah is a good team but it won’t get either win. TCU will drill Utah.

#10 Iowa @ #11 Ohio State

The Buckeyes are wearing rose colored glasses since the win at Penn St. They only need to beat the Hawkeyes to go to the Rose Bowl. They have revised their offense but will not be able to run the ball very well against Iowa early in the game using the backs. They will have to depend on the arm and legs of QB Pryor to move the ball. The real key to the game will be the Buckeye D which totally crushed the PS O.

Iowa had problems moving the ball prior to the injury to QB Stanzi. But Stanzi was not having that good a year. He had 15 TDs with 14 picks. His replacement looked like road kill against Northwestern after the injury last week.

Offense will be in short supply in this game but the Buckeye D should generate enough points to win but maybe not to cover the 17 point spread.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Frying Pan Sports

By Bill Smith

The University of Alabama football team came into the 2009 Sugar Bowl believing they should have been part of the national championship game. They came out on the short end of a 31-17 loss to Utah. No one hated that result more than those college president pinheads that say that there is no need for a playoff in big boy college football.

There is a case to be made that Utah and not Florida should be in the championship game. To that end, let me provide some evidence:

Exhibit A: Florida allowed Alabama to score 20 points while Utah gave up only 17, 7 of which were the direct result of a turnover and 7 more on a punt return.

Exhibit B: Utah held the vaunted Tide running game to 31 yards net on 33 attempts. That is .9 yards a carry. Against national championship bound Florida, Bama also ran 33 time but for 136 yards and a 4.1 average including 2 tds.

Exhibit C: Utah forces 3 Bama turnovers where Florida only forced one.

Exhibit D: Utah held Bama to 5.7 yards per pass attempt while Florida allows 7.5 ypa against them.

Exhibit E: Utah now owns wins over 3 team in the pre-bowl top 15. The defeated #4 Alabama, #12 TCU 13-10 and #14 BYU 48-24. Florida has wins over #4 Alabama 13-20, and #16 Georgia 49-10.

Exhibit F: The only thing that vaulted Florida into the championship game was the win over Alabama.

Exhibit G: Utah is undefeated—in fact the only perfect team in division 1. Florida lost at home to a 8-4 Mississippi team in the regular season that was never ranked.

Now, why would Florida be allowed to play for the national championship and Utah be kept out? Why that’s the system—the BS, sorry, BCS system.

We have heard for years all the arguments against a playoff system in division 1 NCAA football. Let’s look a few of those excuses to see if they hold any water.

1. A college president said that a 4 team playoff would dilute the regular season of college football. I am sure that if neither Ohio State and Michigan or Alabama and Auburn were in a position to play for a championship, the game between the rivals would be played in an empty stadium without television coverage. Yea, that’s going to happen.
2. Several spokespeople for college football suggested that the Big 10 and Pac-10 would resist a playoff because it would detract from the tradition of the Rose Bowl. Of course those conferences jumped into the BCS even though it would mean (under the original system) the traditional matchup would be lost every 4th year. Money seems to count more than tradition. I wonder just how long it will be before the Rose Bowl will become the Flowers.com Bowl to pay the conferences more money. That of course would do nothing to dilute the tradition of the game.
3. The playoff would violate the tradition of bowls. Yea, like there is any tradition there at all. Whom among us isn’t choked up at the very thought to watching the Pulan Weed-Eater bowl? Oh yea, that is gone replaced by the Who Gives a Crap Bowl.
4. A playoff would cost the student athletes way too much class time. WHAT? The average basketball player be it the men or women loses 3 times the number of class days that football players do. They play twice a week and over a much longer season than football. If lost class time is so critical, let’s cancel the NCAA tournament and let the BCS formula or the power rankings determine which two teams play for the basketball championship. Look at all the time we could save for the fans so that they could do their St. Patrick’s day shopping.
5. We also hear that the pinhead college presidents are convinced that the current system is what the people want because the revenue continues to grow every year. Evidently what we were all starved for was more bowl games because the NCAA agreed to add two more bowls to the plethora of nameless faceless matchups between two 6-6 teams. I set my TIVO to record every second of both of them! I am particularly thrilled with the idea of the Congressional Bowl in Washington D.C. Who says there is a no win attitude in our nations capital?
6. Jim Delany, the Big Ten Commissioner, was quoted earlier this year as saying that a 4 team playoff like the plus one formula would quickly lead to expansion to a 8 to 16 team playoff system and stain college football with the brush of professionalism. Maybe we need to eliminate playoffs for Division 2 and Division 3 football. That would help keep professionalism out of the game at that level.

There has been some discussion of a plus one formula after the bowl games. But in a 4 team playoff who would you leave out? USC? I think they may be the best team right now. Utah? They handled Alabama easily in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. I don’t think we have any idea how good this team could be. How about Texas? They were last second field goal away from a perfect season. So forget the plus one. Give us the real honest to goodness playoff system or bag football all together.

The B(C)S is falling into the same bottomless pit that has swallowed so many businesses managed by Ph D’s. The only thing these pinheads understand is money. If you want a playoff, get to the big money donation people and convince them to send a note to their favorite college president. It should read something like “Dear Pinhead. Unless you support a playoff for division 1 football, your school is off my Christmas Card list. Don’t expect a donation this year either. Signed—the Boss!”

In my opinion that is the only way we are ever going to see a playoff in big boy football.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.