Why Stanford QB Luck will not be a Colt in 2012

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There is a lot of talk in the sports world about which NFL team will by Luck(y).  Most people believe that the winner (by losing) will be either the Rams, the Dolphins or the Colts.  None of those teams have won a game so far.

The Dolphins – This team is struggling with bad coaching, no QB and a D that is constantly being put in bad field position by
turnovers.  The Fish would love to have Luck and he would love to play for them.   The coach is history after the season.
Having the first choice would allow the Fish to attract a top HC prospect.  It is likely the Fish will be in the battle for the top draft choice all season long.

The Rams – This is the only team that will likely trade the pick.  They have Bradford and are happy with him when he is healthy.
They have multiple issues on the O line and D that could be filled by the draft choices or young veterans they should get from trading the rights to Luck.  This deal will be made BEFORE the draft and not after they take Luck.  If they have both Luck and Bradford on the roster their negotiating power goes down not up.

The Colts – Most people are thinking that the Colts are the worst team in the league and will take Luck.  What they are missing is this—Luck does not want to sit for 4 or 5 years behind Payton Manning.  If the Colts end up with the 1st pick, I predict Luck will stay in school another year.  He is a red shirt Junior and can opt to come out for the draft or stay for another year.   He likes school and the college game.
While there is a risk staying in college, Luck is the closest thing to a sure thing and will not fall like Jake Locker did.  But having sat for a year in college I believe Luck will not want to sit for multiple years behind Manning.

 

That is what I think.  Tell us what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color
on radio for
college football and basketball and has scouted talent. 
He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/ and a non-fiction work at http://www.merriam-press.com/.

He edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org/.

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A different view of Stanford QB Luck’s decision and the “Cutlering” of Miami coach Spirano.

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There has been a lot of talk about why Andrew Luck and his golden arm will stay at Stanford for another year when every NFL draft analyst agrees he would be the #1 selection in the 2011 draft.

Some believe that he just really likes the college life style.

Some think he wants to work a little more on his game. He is a redshirt sophomore and has 2 more years of eligibility. He has only started 2 years for the Cardinals.

I have no idea why he decided to stay but it raises a HUGE red flag to me.

I have serious doubts about how important his NFL career is to Luck. If I was the owner of the Carolina Panthers, I would not want to spend 50 million dollars on a guy that may or may not be committed to the game and the team. Payton Manning went back for a final year at Tennessee but it was clear that his goal was to beat the Gators for once in his career.

This will be the last draft in which the first pick will get 50+ million dollars guaranteed. As soon as there is a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, a rookie salary scale similar to that of the NBA will be in place. The first pick will get something closer to 25 million. Both the owners and NFLPA Ex. Dir. Smith want the extra money to go to the vets not rookies.

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Miami Owner Ross “Cutlered” head coach Tony Sparano.

When he took over the HC job, ex-Bronco McDaniels had a pro bowl QB in Cutler. But that was not good enough for him. The grass is always…you get the idea.

McD wanted “his” QB Matt Cassel, the reserve QB that McD tutored when all world Tom Brady was out for the year. McD thought he could negotiate a trade with the Pats without anyone knowing. It got out and when the Chiefs got Cassel, Cutler demanded to be traded.

That is the exact same thing that the Dolphins Owner Ross did to his HC Sparano. There had been a lot of talk about the coach being fired but Ross said nothing. At the end of the season, Ross said that he would keep Sparano. But then there was that REALLY green grass.

When Stanford coach Harbaugh’s people agreed to a meeting with Ross, he jumped at it. Ross reportedly offered Harbaugh 7 million a year. When the flavor of the month refused to take the job, Ross had a problem.

Today he wanted to have a make up press conference announcing a year extension contract with Sparano. The only problem was that Sparano didn’t show up. This is a receipt for disaster. Look for the Dolphins to be in the running for the 2012 1st draft pick when the locker room divides.

Ross should be fined for interviewing and offering a contract to a coach when they had one on the staff at the time. If that is not a rules violation, it should be. At any rate, not only will the fish likely dive in 2011 but Ross will have even more trouble finding a coach that will take the job because of his Cutlering Sparano.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and a non-fiction work at http://www.merriam-press.com/. He edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org/. Also listen to the best Sports Talk anywhere on the Internet and hear his sports show Monday-Friday 5-9 EST on http://www.cleveland.com/dsn/index.ssf/2010/11/dsn_video_live_stream.html

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The BCS and NFL Playoffs are becoming clear.

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Wilson Football

In college games I went 8-1 bringing the season total to 31-15.

In pro games against the spread I went 1-4 bringing the total to 20-12.

College football:

#1 Oregon 15 California 13 – The Ducks ducked a close call to continue on the road to the BcS game. They survived to play #22 Arizona at home this week and at Oregon State next.

#2 Auburn 49 Georgia 31 – Tiger QB Newton played very well accounting for 4 scores. The Auburn D is a problem particularly in a possible game against a O like Oregon’s. Auburn will play #11 Alabama next week and #17 South Carolina in the SEC Championship game.

#3 TCU 40 San Diego St. 35 – TCU lost some ground against Boise with a close game against a good SDS team. They have no chance to recover that ground with only the 1 win New Mexico State team left on the schedule.

#4 Boise St. 52 Idaho 14 – Boise is in the best shape to sneak into the Big game if one of the top 2 fall. They have 6-3 Fresno State, #18 Nevada, and 4-6 Utah State.

#5 LSU 51 La. Monroe 0 – LSU has Mississippi and #13 Arkansas on the schedule.

#6 Stanford 17 Arizona St. 13 – Stanford will face Cal and Oregon St. If they play the way they did against a 2-6 Arizona St. team they will lose at Cal next week.

Pro football:

Vick looked great against the Redskins Monday night. They will move up in the FPS Top team list.

Stick a fork in the turkey known as the Vikings. They are done. This team is self-destructing and will be totally reworked next year.

The Browns have found their QB of the present and maybe of the future in McCoy. Check out what I had to say about him in the NFLDraftDog.com Browns team page.

The Colts are banged up and not blowing out anyone. Even so, they have climbed back on top of the AFC South and will be a tough playoff out because they still have Manning.

The Dolphins have lost both QB Henne and Pennington. This team is done for the year but has gotten younger. They will be a force next year.

The 49ers have found their QB for the present and it is Smith–Troy Smith the FA from Baltimore not Alex Smith the 1st round pick a couple of years ago. Troy threw for 356 yards and a TD without a pick last week against the Rams.

The Redskins signed QB McNabb to a 5 year extension. This is more about keeping control of his services in 2011 than anything else. He got 10M guaranteed and 78-88M over the contract with incentives which he probably won’t be able to meet. The Redskins want to keep him because he would get a big offer in free agency next season because so many teams need QBs.

Top 5

1. Patriots – The win over the Steelers was a statement game and got them the top spot despite a loss last week against the Browns.

2. Jets – They got lucky against the Browns to win in overtime. But I still don’t think this team is as good as the Pats.

3. Steelers – The AFC North is a tough division. The Steelers lost to the Pats this week but this is still a good team. They need to shore up the O line and DBs.

4. Falcons – The Birds beat the Ravens with a great comeback. This team is on the rise and QB Ryan is outstanding.

5. Ravens – This team is still very solid and will move up soon.

Dropped out: Giants – They got crushed by the Eagles and QB Vick.

Just out of the top 5: Eagles – If Vick stays healthy and the D continues to play this well, they could make the NFC Championship game.

Bottom 5

28. Cowgirls – One win with a new coach is nice but you have to prove it over the rest of the season.

29. Broncos – The win over the Chiefs was one fraud beating another.

30. Cardinals – “QB? QB? We don’t need no stinking QB!”

31. Panthers – That is what you get for drafting a QB out of Notre Dame.

32. Bills – They finally won a game but it could be the last one for a while.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org.

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Things to look for this week in College and Pro football.

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FOOTball

The Big East is a fraud. Despite the pollsters doing their best to get a BE team into the top 25, the league stinks this year. Several teams have crept into the top 25 only to lose and fall back out the next week. The current top team is Syracuse (6-2) who is tied for 28th in the AP. The league is recruiting BcS #3 TCU to join the league. TCU would love to get into an automatic qualifying conference. The BE desperately needs a team–any team– that can get into the top 25 and stay there. It also would love to have a TV presents in the Dallas market. The only problem is the BE basketball is 16 teams already and TCU does not have a strong basketball tradition.

#3 TCU @ #5 Utah – The loser is out of the Championship picture. The TCU D is #1 in most college stats and the O is 9th in scoring and 9th in rushing. The Utah D is 6th in points allowed and their O is 3rd in scoring. The key may be the difference in opponents. The only big time opponent that Utah has played was a badly over rated #15 Pit team in game 1 of the season. TCU beat a good Oregon State team ranked at the time and Baylor who was not ranked then but is #21 now. TCU wins due to more experience on D and at QB.

#6 Alabama @ #10 LSU – Watch out for Bama. They lost on the road @ South Carolina in their 3rd straight game against a ranked team that had a bye the previous week. I think LSU is W A Y over rated. Bama wins easily on the road.

#15 Arizona @ #13 Stanford – All the talk about this game is about the Stanford #5 scoring O against the Zona #7 points against D. But this game will be decided by the Arizona O vs the Stanford D. Zona is 12th in passing but struggles to put points on the board (#32). The Stanford D will struggle to stop the air attack of the Zona and Arizona wins on the road.

#21 Baylor @ #17 Oklahoma St. – Both passing games are outstanding. Soph QB Griffin has led the Bears to their first bowl eligibility in years and is ranked 10th in passing yards. OKSt has a bad D that is susceptible to the passing game but has the 3rd ranked passing game themselves. The key should be the running game of the Bears and the visitors should walk away with the win.

#18 Arkansas @ #19 South Carolina – Hog QB Mallett leads the 2nd ranked passing game into SC against the Gamecocks 24th ranked D. But Mallett’s passing stats are misleading. He has failed against the top teams (#1 Alabama and #4 Auburn) he has played and needs this game to prove to the scouts that he is a worthy top pick whenever he comes out. SC beat Alabama but lost in their only other game against a top team. They also stumbled against Kentucky. SC plays much better at home and wins this game.

NFL this week:

Chiefs (5-2) @ Raiders (4-4) -2.5 – This game is critical to the Raiders if they want a chance at the playoffs. The Chiefs bring in the top rushing game against the 26th ranked rush D of the Raiders. The secret for KC is not to have to depend on the arm of QB Cassel because he is not reliable. They have played only 2 good teams (Colts and Texans) and lost to both. The Raiders are coming back. The O has scored 92 points in the last 2 games. They win and cover.

Colts (5-2) @ Eagles (4-3) -3 – With the benching of QB Kolb the Eagles are taking a big gamble on keeping the locker room together. QB Vick is solid but will have some rust coming off an injury. I think the Colts cover and should win.

Buccaneers (5-2) @ Falcons (5-2) -8.5 – Buc HC Morris thinks he has the best team in the league. He doesn’t. The Bucs are 30th against the run and that is what the Falcons do best. Atlanta wins but 8.5 is a BIG number I would not touch.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Ravens (5-2) -6 – The Ravens struggled defensively against the Bills last week. Even so, the team is solid. The Dolphins won ugly against the Bengals last week. QB Henne is not having a great season and the Dolphin O line will struggle against the Raven D. The Ravens win and should cover.

Best Bet: Giants +5.5 vs Seahawks.

Is 2011 really the year of the QB? Probably not. Most mock drafts show 3 QBs going in the first round of the 2011 draft. There is no question that a lot of NFL teams need QBs but it is not at all clear that the under class guys like Mallett in Arkansas and Luck at Stanford, or even Wilson at NC State will come out. The key is going to be the Collective Bargaining Agreement. DeMaurice Smith of the NFLPA and the owners need to get a deal done by declaration day in mid January 2011. There is no chance that the deal will be done by that time. I don’t see any of the under class men coming out without a deal signed prior to the declaration date. QB Locker (Washington) will go in the 1st round but that is it. Florida State QB Ponder will go in round 2, with Delaware QB Devlin and Nevada QB Kaepernick being wild cards. Their draft position will depend on the all star games and the combine.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org.

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Week 8 College football results — What did we learn?

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wilson football

This week I went 5-1 in top game calls losing only the Texas/Baylor debacle. That puts the total to 22-10 for a 69% correct.

In the pros I went 3-2 which puts the against the spread at 14-8 which is 64% correct.

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College Football

#1 Auburn 51 Mississippi 31 – The Auburn D struggled to control the Rebel O and that is going to be a problem. They will be safe with all but the Iron Bowl where Alabama looks like the winner at this point.

#2 Oregon 53 USC 32 – This was the biggest threat that the Ducks had faced all season. They have two more tough games against #15 Arizona and at Oregon State to close the regular season. They should win both and be in the BcS Championship game.

#18 Iowa 37 #5 Michigan State 6 – After a home loss against Wisconsin, the Iowa D was back in a big way and stuffed the Spartan O completely. Ohio State had better watch out when they visit the Hawkeyes.

#14 Nebraska 31 #6 Missouri 17 – The Tiger O could not match the speed of the Nebraska D. Nebraska is the best team in the 10-15 range and will give the Big 12 South winner nightmares in the league title game.

#8 Utah 28 Air Force 23 – The Utah D struggled to control the running game of the Air Force but few teams run the ball as well as they do. This was a tough game and next week Utah gets a visit from #3 TCU an easy win over UNLV. One of those non-BCS teams will be eliminated from the race. They also have to play @ Notre Dame and finish the season against BYU.

#9 Oklahoma, #11 Ohio State, and #13 Stanford all had easy wins against inferior competition. But all three face some tough games coming up. A big game in the Big 10+1 will be the OSU Iowa game on Nov. 13th. But they face an up and down Penn State team next week that could be a trap game.

#15 Arizona 29 UCLA 21 – The Arizona D was pushed around a little by a very inconsistent UCLA O. The Wildcats have a tough finishing schedule including @ Stanford next week followed by a home game vs. USC, a visit to #1 Oregon and a home game against rival Arizona State. They will not survive that gauntlet and will lose 2 of the 4.

The NFL

Colts 30 Texans 17 – The Colts now have the O running on 5 of 6 cylinders and were able to control the game against the upstart Texans. This team is starting to look like a playoff tough out.

Pats 28 Vikings 18 – The Pats looked good and the Vikes are dead man walking. Farve is not the only Vike that will not make it to 2011. Check out my comments on both the release of WR Moss and the Vike situation on my News, Notes and Rumors page on NFLDraftDog.com.

Packers 9 Jets 0 – The loss caused the Jets to fall out of my Top spot. The problem is the O that could not run when the passing game failed to produce. A loss to the NFC is not as costly as one to another AFC team in positioning for the playoffs. Still, the Jets need to get their O back on track. The Pack stays alive in a very winnable NFC North. All the other teams in that division are imploding.

Jaguars 35 Cowgirls 17 – The Girls looked pathetic against one of the weakest teams in the league. The Girls are in serious trouble. One draft guru has them picking 8th and selecting a QB with that pick. The Jags are struggling in every aspect of the game including selling tickets. This will help but Vince Lombardi couldn’t win regularly with this roster.

Dolphins 22 Bengals 14 – While everything fell the Bengals way in 09 it is falling apart in 2010. The O has been a major disappointment. The passing game has not produced anything close to what was expected. The Dolphins survived in a game where they did not play particularly well.

The Raiders, Lions and Rams all won and are getting much better.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org.

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What did we learn from week 5 of the College Football season?

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football

My picks last week were pretty accurate. I was 5-1 with only NC State letting me down. Here are some thoughts about the top games last week.

#1 Alabama looked like a national champ again pounding #7 Florida 31-6 in a very physical game. This team has no visible weaknesses. No draft guys are talking about QB McElroy but I think he has pro potential in the west coast system. He does not have the great arm but makes the right decisions and processes info quickly.

#2 Ohio State struggled on O again beating Illinois 24-13. Even being a Buckeye grad, I would have ranked them behind Oregon in the poll at this point. This was the first game in the last 5 that QB Pryor did not throw for 200 yards.

#4 Oregon beat #9 Stanford going away 52-31. Even without 09 starter QB Masoli, Oregon looks better than last year. Little RB James is amazing. The scary thing about this team is that it is young.

#8 Oklahoma looked solid beating #21 Texas 28-20.

#24 Michigan State exposed the lack of a passing attack of #11 Wisconsin. MSU does not have a great D but schemed to stop the run and it worked. MSU won 34-24.

#12 LSU can’t throw a lick and Tennessee almost beat them because of the lack of O. The LSU 16-14 win at home did not score any style points.

#16 Miami looked good in a road win against a gritty Clemson team. Death Valley is not a easy place to play and the 30-21 win was solid.

#17 Iowa’s D showed the lack of passing of #22 Penn State and won impressively 24-3. Penn State is a year away from being in the top 4 of the Big 10 or 11 or 12.

#18 USC is a fraud and Washington showed them to be one. The USC D couldn’t stop a marble rolling down hill. The O is good but can’t score enough to win.

Virginia Tech beat #23 North Carolina State at NCS 41-30. Another QB nobody is talking about I really like is NCS Jr. QB Wilson. He has a lightening release, strong arm, great touch, and good footwork. He will be an above average to very good pro QB.

Oklahoma St. stayed perfect beating a better than expected Texas A&M team 38-35. The OSU D gave up a lot of yards but came up big with a pick to secure the win.

Northwestern (5-0) stumbled into the bottom of the Top 25 this week by beating a really bad Minnesota team 29-28. They need to enjoy their 15 minutes of fame because their stay in the poll will not last long.

Florida State got back into the top 25 with a win over Virginia. While FSU has looked good even against Oklahoma in a loss, they are going to be tested this week against Miami.

We will look at next week’s games on Thursday.

Scouting Report — Jr. North Carolina State QB Russell Wilson.

Another QB nobody is talking about I really like is NCS Jr. QB Wilson. He has a lightening release and great vision which is a combination that is hard to find in college football. When makes a decision, the ball is out. He also has a strong arm and can throw the 15 yard out with a flick of his wrist. He also has the great touch to drop the ball over the LB but in front of the S where the WR can get it. He has good but not great footwork.

He needs to work on dealing with pressure better. He tends to trust his arm too much when falling back from a rush. That led to picks against Virginia Tech this past week.

He may not come out this season given the possibility of a strike in 2011. He also has pro potential in baseball so there is some risk taking him too high for an NFL team. But he has a lot of the qualities I look for in a pro QB prospect.

He will be an above average to very good pro QB and has the potential to be a quality starter.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. His first non-fiction work is at the publisher now and he has also published several novels on

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org.

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