It’s hard to be perfect.

The Saints couldn’t stand the pressure of the undefeated season. They played uncharacteristically badly against the Cowboys. The now have to worry about losing their #1 seed but got a break when the Vikes lost unexpectedly to the Panthers.

The Boys were more lucky than good. Phillips still have an up hill run to keep his job.

The Colts struggled to win at the Jags 35-31. They are still undefeated but may not care enough about a perfect record to play their starters in last two games. They are more interested in winning the Super Bowl. Their lack of a running game is a major concern going into the post season.

The Chargers virtually lock up the 2^nd AFC Playoff spot with their win.

The Bengals played well at SD and even getting the game to a tie in the 4^th quarter. But the momentum of the Chargers was just too much to take. After 2 straight losses they are just 1 game ahead of the Ravens. The Bengals hold the tie breaker. They will win the division title but stumble into the playoffs and will be an early out.

The Chargers look good. They are playing at a very high level and will be a tough matchup for the Colts if they meet them in the AFC Championship. The Colts have always had trouble against the Chargers.

AFC Playoffs

The seeds at this point are

1. Colts

2. Chargers

3. Patriots The Pats are locks to win the AFC East with games against the Jags and Texans left on the schedule. The Pats will get into the post season but won’t go far because their D is pathetic.

4. Bengals

5. Ravens To hang on to this spot, the Ravens need to win next week at the Steelers.

6. Broncos The Broncos are going to have to win against the Eagles next week to stay in the playoff picture. They won’t and could be replaced by the Steelers. They can help themselves a lot by winning out against the Ravens and Fish.

7. Jaguars IF they can beat the Pats this week, they could get into the playoffs. But that is a very big if. They have lost 2 in a row but played very well against the Colts. They finish up at Cleveland. If they win out and get help by the Broncos loss to the Ravens, they hold the tiebreaker against Denver.

8. Dolphins The Dolphins lost any chance to catch the Pats with their loss to the Titans last week. Now they will struggle to climb back into the playoffs. The Fish have to play a resurgent Steelers in week 17.

NFC Playoffs

1. Saints

2. Vikings The Vikes are going to have to win out to keep the 2^nd spot. They are only 1 game ahead of the Eagles and would lose the tie breaker. The Vikes have to beat the the Bears and Giants to keep the bye week.

3. Eagles The Birds have no easy walk to the 2^nd spot because they play the Broncos at home and finish up at the Boys. They should win both and get the bye week which they really could use to get healthy.

4. Cardinals The Cards continue to play up and down. The problem seems to be the D and the O line. When they play solid D and protect QB Warner, they can beat anyone. They won’t be able to in the playoffs and will not return to the Super Bowl. They have clinched the NFC West. With no chance of moving up to the 2^nd seed, they may rest their stars in week 17.

5. Packers The Pack should have beaten the Steelers but it wouldn’t have made any difference to their playoff hopes. They are 9-5 and should win both their remaining games against Seattle and at Arizona. If they do, they will play at Arizona in the wild card round.

6. Cowboys The Boys are in serious danger of falling out of the playoffs unless they can beat the Eagles at home in week 17. That will mean that Owner Jones will likely blow the team up and rebuild with a new head coach. It won’t be coach in waiting OC Jason Garrett. JJ will look for a brand name to get the Boys turned around.

7. Giants NYG is bearing down on the Boys and holds the tiebreaker against them. They will have to win at the Vikes in week 17 but the Vikes will likely be resting key players for the post season. That is something to look out for in Fantasy Football.

8. Falcons The Falcons are waiting and should win out. But they need help and their injuries may keep them out of the post season.

Holmgren joins the Browns as Football Czar.

As a long suffering Browns fan, I am very glad to see him take the Presidency rather than the GM spot. He will hire a solid GM and head coach. Mangini is almost certainly history no matter what happens in the last two games. DC Ryan may well get to stay depending on who Holmgren brings in as HC. The Browns will end up with the 5^th 6^th or 7^th pick in the draft. You can bet that this one won’t be traded to the Jets for a bag of balls and players to be named later.

Washington gets Allen as their new GM.

Hall of Fame Coach George Allen’s son is the new GM in DC. George Allen Jr. is a no nonsense guy with an outstanding history of drafting and picking free agents. He also can stand up to ownership which has been a problem at DC in the past.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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College

Pac10 Championship—sort of

Oregon beat Oregon State 37-33 for the league title and the Rose Bowl ticket. In the end, it was the running and passing of the Ducks that won the game. The Ducks will give Ohio State all they want.

SEC Championship We finally get to see #1 Florida against #2 Alabama. It should be a defensive struggle again this year like it was last season. However, Bama seems to have a little more explosiveness to their O than the Gators. The game will be determined by turnovers and will be low scoring and close. The Bama D is as good as the Florida D so the game will depend on the QB’s ability to move the ball on the opponent. Most experts think that Bama will win but I can’t go against Tebow. When the game is in the balance he always seems to find a way to win.

Big12 Championship

#3 Texas will have their way with a good but too young #22 Nebraska team in this game. The game will be the showcase for QB Colt McCoy and should elevate him to a Heisman award as much for his body of work as for this season. The Huskers are a year away from challenging for a B12 title.

#5 Cincinnati @ #15 Pitt

The Bearcats are playing for a BcS game and should win. Pitt looked very ordinary last week in a loss to West Virginia. I expect the Cats’ D to be too much for the talented but turnover prone Panthers.

USA Conference Championship

If you haven’t seen Houston QB Keenum, take a look at this game. He is fun to watch. The Houston O is a wide open passing game that will throw the ball all over the East Carolina D. Nobody is going to want to get paired with Houston in a bowl game.

NFL

Eagles @ Falcons

QB Vick makes his return to Atlanta but won’t be a factor. Both teams are chasing after a playoff spot. The loser will likely be out of the race. The Falcons play well at home but the Eagles should win.

Titans @ Colts

QB Young will have his winning streak ended with a thud but most likely it won’t be his fault. The Titan D has been playing better with Young at QB because he has been able to keep drives alive with his legs. The problems in the pass D of the Titans will be exploited by Manning. The Colts won’t blow them away because they tend to play down to competition but the Colts will win.

Cowboys @ Giants

Well, it’s December and time for the Boys to take their annual dive. Everything points to a Boys win but Romo doesn’t play well after Turkey day. The Boys need a win to keep up on the Eagles. I have to think that the Boys will find a way to lose rather than Giants winning the game.

Vikings @ Cards

IF QB Warner plays, this should be a good close game filled with offense. But I don’t think he will and the Vikes will win. QB Leinart couldn’t beat the Titans last week and folds under a good pass rush. The Vikes turn up the heat on D and win the game.

Ravens @ Packers

The Ravens have struggled in the last couple of weeks but should find the Pack D a little easier to run on. But in the end, the Pack O will be too much for an aging Raven D. Pack wins in a close game.

Seattle fires their GM.

Tim Ruskett, the GM that replaced Coach Holmgren in that role. Some people are assuming that Holmgren will come back to take that job along with the Presidency of the team. I don’t think that will happen. Holmgren didn’t have a great history drafting players. Check out my analysis of his draft history on NFLDraftDog.com.

Browns lose all hope.

The Browns lost their best player on D—NT Rogers and best player on O—RB Lewis to the IR. What will hurt even more, their best player overall in Mr. Everything, Cribbs. Cribbs let a kickoff free ball lay in the end zone against the Bengals. That was not a brain cramp; it was a signal that he has given up on the team, the coaching staff and his chance for getting the contract that he was promised. Again, I will comment on this more in my weekly article on NFLDraftDog.com.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Happy Thanksgiving to all.

What we learned from last week.

QB Vince Young has turned the corner—Not yet.

Looking at the 4 straight wins of the Titans, many would assume that Young is now an NFL quality QB. Young has given the O a shot in the butt however it is more from his ability or his threat to run than from his passing. Against the Texans he had 116 yards passing.

He has improved his mechanics. His footwork is much better. He is planting his feet before he throws and is not throwing as often off his back foot. That has improved his accuracy. He has been over 50% in every game and over 60% completions in two.

Unless he continues to improve his passing, defenses will adjust to the Young led O and stop this version of the team as well.

The Browns find their O but have lost their D—Not yet.

You and I could move the ball against the Lions even if you were having a bad day. The O of the Browns Sunday means nothing. However, we did see indications that QB Quinn can throw deep but he must work on accuracy.

The Bengals will play up to their competition or down to the Raiders.

This is a team that is just starting to learn how to win again after being the joke of the NFL. It will take them a couple of years to get used to putting their foot on the throat of a weak opponent and winning the game.

The Turkeys served up by the NFL

GB @ DT – UCH! Forget the tradition. Detroit won’t be a competitive team any time soon. Put some team in that won’t make us lose our dinner.

OK @ DA Couldn’t the NFL have found a more accomplished team to match against the Boys than the Al Davises?

NYG @ DV The Broncos are hanging on for dear life and the Giants D will force them further down into the muck. Giants win even without a running game.

Indy @ HO This is the last chance for the Texans to prove they are better than a 500 team. To do that they have to beat the Colts. They are not better than a 500 team. They will lose and end up with a new coach next season.

PT @ BA This is the battle of reserves because these teams are really beaten up. The Steelers called me early this week asking if I would play backup QB because Roethlisberger was banged up last week and Batch was out with a bad wrist. They also could be missing S Polamalu and G Kemoeatu.

The Ravens will also be struggling with injuries to C Birk, LB Lewis and S Reed. Look for the Steelers to win IF big Ben plays.

Game of the Week—NE @ NO The Saints get the first real test of the season. The key will be how well a bad Pat D backfield deals with the passing of Brees. The Saints should win but this is the type of game that the Pats seem to steal.

Stinker of the Week—SE @ STL Ram QB Bulger is hurt and the O line is not good enough to create running lanes against air. Seattle is no gift to football fans.

Please take a moment this holiday to think about those that are on the other side of world risking their lives to make us safe. May the men and women of our military stay safe.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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College football:

TCU is REALLY good.

#4 TCU played #16 Utah and blew them out 55-28. Everybody expected the TCU O to be outstanding but their speed on D is as good as any team in the country. They have everything they need to beat Texas and probably Florida as well. Alabama is the one team above them that could give them real trouble. The power running game of Bama combined with the very big O line might be able to win the game.

TCU goes to Wyoming (5-5) then gets winless New Mexico at home. Neither will provide much competition.

#1 Florida and #2 Alabama set the date.

The stage is set for the top 2 teams in the BcS to play for the right to go to the big game. The winner of the SEC Championship game on Dec. 5^th will get the bid. The loser will likely be named an at large BcS bowl game team. Both come in a little banged up from nice wins last week.

Florida won a tough game at South Carolina 24-14. They will take on Florida State after an easier game this weekend against Florida International.

Bama beat Mississippi St. last week 31-3. It has a date at Auburn on 11/27. Auburn has lost 4 games but only 1 at home.

BcS’s worst nightmare

If either SEC team loses their rivalry game then win the SEC Championship it would open the door for TCU who hangs like an unwelcome buzzard over a wounded animal.

Texas looks good for a ticket to the BcS big game.

The Horns beat a badly over matched Baylor team 47-14. They have to play Kansas at home before traveling to Texas A&M next weekend. Kansas was 5-0 after winning their Big12 opener against Iowa St. but then have lost 5 games in a row. They still can be dangerous for any team that over looks them.

TAM is 4-1 at home and can also be dangerous in the season ending rivalry game.

Ohio State wins a ticket to the Rose Bowl.

The Bucks are playing as well as they have any time in the last 2 years. QB Pryor seems to be more comfortable in the offense that is more aligned to his abilities that it was earlier in the year. The D seems to have found its pass rush which was missing in action at Purdue.

Around the NFL:

Indy is the lone AFC Undefeated

The Colts came back after a major gaff by Belichick to win by a single point over New England. Indy is not a perfect team. Given the injuries on D, they will be at risk of upset by a passing team with some running game like Cincy, the Pats or San Diego. But they now have the inside track to home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs which is critical to their success. They are not a team that is built to play in the cold winds of the North East in January.

The Bengals take 1 giant step toward the playoffs.

By sweeping the Steelers and Ravens the Bengals need only another win over 1-8 Browns to be perfect in the AFC North. They will make the playoffs and should have a home game in round 1.

The Bills fire coach Jauron.

Dick Jauron is one of the great D Coordinators in the history of the league. He just has not been able to equal that success at the head coach level. The Bills are going after the usual suspects including Shanahan and Holmgren.

The Cleveland Tans formerly known as the Browns are REALLY BAD!!!!

Will the person that stole Mangenous’ crystal ball please return it—no questions asked. Several sources are predicting that if Mangini loses to the lowly Lions this week, he is history. That would be a good think. Owner Lerner wants to bring in a “football guy” to oversee the operation and has leaked Holmgren as his top pick for that spot. He had better hurry if that is the guy he wants.

What the Browns should do about a coach.

Personally, I don’t get Holmgren as the GM/VP Operations. Mike was stripped of his GM duties in Seattle after a less than stellar series of drafts. I would fire Mangini now and have him take OC Daboll with him. They should name DC Ryan as interim head coach and grab Jauron as the DC. Then QB coach Smith would become OC and former QB now consultant Kosar should work with the QBs.

That would give the team time to find a permanent coach if Ryan doesn’t work out. I do believe that the locker room would get a lot better with Ryan as the HC. The D has played hard for him even with the miserable work of the O.

Al Davis FINALLY benches QB Russell.

The Raiders announced that Gradkowski will start over Russell. It’s about time!!!

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Seattle is not a very good football team. That’s OK because they are in a division that is not very good. If the majority of ifs fall in the Seahawks’ favor, they could contend for the NFC West title.

QB Matt Hasselbeck is the keystone of the offense. With the running game probably struggling, he will be called on to generate a great percentage of the yards and scoring. He is crafty and very capable if he can stay healthy. That is a big if given the O line problems and has been a problem for him and the team. He missed more than half of last year to injury. Seneca Wallace started the last 8 games of 08 and did fine with a 87.0 passer rating and 11 TDs with only 3 interceptions.

The starter is Julius Jones but he gained only 698 yards in starting 10 games last year. The Seahawks use RB by committee. The new addition to the group is ex-Colt and Cardinal Edgerrin James. James figures to be the short yardage guy but the team usually passes near the goal line. Neither of these two are good bets for Fantasy. Owen Schmitt and Justin Griffith are still competing for the open FB spot.

The receiver group got better in the off season. The team signed Bengal pro bowl WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. He will be the cornerstone of the passing offense. The remainder of the WR group is weak at best. Nate Burleson and Deion Branch both were felled with knee injuries. Both were excellent but have yet to show their speed so far this year. Deon Butler has had some outstanding catches but lacks consistency. TE John Carlson is a young and talented player with John Owens coming in when 2 TEs are used.

The O line has been a problem. That problem got a lot worse when perennial all pro LT Walter Jones went down last year. He is expected back about game 8 but don’t bet on it. He has had arthroscopic surgery on his surgically repaired left knee that he had microfracture surgery on last December. LG Mike Wahle is also coming back from an injury. He looks OK. RG Rob Sims is learning but has a long way to go. Starting C Chris Spencer suffered a torn quad and may miss the entire season. The rest are below average and there is very little depth.

There is no D in Seattle or at least there hasn’t been for a while. The best player on the D line is DE Patrick Kerney but he has been hurt each of the last 2 years. UFA RDT Colin Cole looks like a good fit. DT Brandon Mebane has the tools but not experience. The book remains open on him. Cory Redding starts at the other end and is OL. Darryl Tapp is the designated pass rusher. Rookie DE/DT Lawrence Jackson is coming along nicely.

The linebacking is the strength of the D. Rookie Aaron Curry was handed the SLB spot and has shown no indication he will give it up any time soon. He has proven to be a good blitzer and handles the run well. MLB Lofa Tatupu is outstanding particularly against the run. WLB Leroy Hill is adequate. Reserve D.D. Lewis has starting experience and is good enough to play either outside spot.

The DBs are the weakest area of the D. LCB Marcus Trufant is very good but the rest of the group had a rough time last season. At this point in his career RCB Ken Lucas is more reputation than production. With the loss of Kerney last year the team blitzed more. FS Brian Russell and SS Deon Grant were not up to the challenge. Russell is not capable of tight coverage. Grant is too inconsistent to be effective. C.J. Wallace and Jamar Adams have experience as reserve safeties.

OVERALL: Despite a lot of question marks, this team is capable of challenging for the title. Most likely, it will be 2^nd in the division and on the bubble for a wild card.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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