FIESTA BOWL #6 Boise St 13-0 #4 TCU 12-0

Most people think this game is all about the O. Look for the D to dominate. TCU is the top D in the country. Boise is #15. Both teams hoped they would be matched against a “major” power. Frankly, no major power wanted to play them. That is why they have such trouble trying to get games against big name teams. Oregon found that out when they played BS.

TCU is the better team but the experience that Boise has in BcS games gives them a slight advantage.

This should be the most fun game to watch of the bowl season.

ORANGE BOWL #10 Iowa 10-2 #9 Georgia Tech 11-2

Iowa’s two losses came without their starting QB Stanzi. He is back after being injured and now is ready to help the Big 10 get a positive bowl record. Just his presents will help along with RB Robinson. The two have been the keys to the Iowa O. Watch the Iowa OTs Bulaga (Jr) and Calloway (2^nd round). TE Moeaki is a 3^rd round talent. He is an outstanding blocker with just enough speed to threaten the deep middle.

On D, Iowa is big and physical. They will have to hold their positions to combat the option. LBs Angerer and Edds should both be picked in the late 3^rd or early 4^th.

GT has the second leading rushing attack in the country. When they have been able to get out front and continue to run the ball, they are unbeatable. The key to stopping the Jackets is to put them in 3^rd and long often. They do not have the passing attack to come back from a major deficit. GT runs the option which is something that Iowa has not seen this year. Watch RB Dwyer. He is the key runner for Tech and is a load. QB Nesbitt is not a high percentage passer but can be effective when he wants to throw rather than when he has to.

The line is GT by 5 but I expect Iowa to steal a win.

GMAC BOWL Cent Michigan 11-2 Troy 9-3

My question is how did this game get pushed past Christmas? The games after 1/1 should be big matchups. CM QB LeFevour (3^rd or 4^th) may be the next big name to come out of the MAC. He has thrown 27 TDs with only 6 picks.

Troy has its own pro prospect in QB Brown. Brown has a better arm but LeFevour has more pub. The best bet here is the Over at 61. CM is a slight favorite but don’t bet on it.

National Championship game—Tomorrow.

Around the NFL Thursday

What to look for in the Wild Card round Friday

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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PAPAJOHNS.com BOWL South Carolina 7-5 Connecticut 7-5

Despite losing a key player to tragedy and being out-manned regularly, UConn has played a handful of ranked teams close only to lose heartbreaking game after game. Starting CB Jasper Howard was murdered on Oct. 18^th. The team carries his memory and his jersey as a rally flag. The heart and hard work was rewarded with an overtime win over Notre Dame followed by a couple of wins to end the season.

UConn’s O scores 31 points per game and is fairly balanced between the run and the pass. The running tandem of Todman and Dixon provide a good ground attack despite not having even an average O line. QB Endres took over half way through the year and has done fairly well completing 64% with 6 TDs and 4 picks. His favorite target is WR Easley (5^th round). The D has gotten better over the year but still is young. It is led by DE Witten (4^th) and FS Vaughn (5^th).

The Ol’ Ball Coach Spurrier still throws the ball all over the place. “Running backs, we don’t need no stinkin’ running backs” seems to be the game plan for SC. QB Garcia has a rating of 124.5 with 2733 yards and 17 TDs. He has had 394 attempts while the top 2 running backs had a total of 211 carries.

The SC D has been very erratic. They allowed 41 points to a bad Georgia O and then held a highly rated offense of #4 Mississippi to just 10. The D is led by OB Norwood (late 2^nd) and SS Stewart (6^th).

While UConn has won 3 straight, SC has lost 3 of their last 4. SC is a 5 point favorite but I doubt they will win that big. This could be another upset.

COTTON BOWL #19 Oklahoma St. 9-3 Mississippi 8-4

Ole Miss QB Snead needs to have a good game to impress NFL scouts. He came into the season as a top QB draft prospect but has fallen to the point he would be better off to stay for his senior year. He has completed only 54% with 20 TDs and 17 picks. RB McCluster (3^rd) is just 5-7 169 and will have to play WR in the NFL. WR Hodge (6^th) and G Jerry (5^th) are also prospects on the Rebel O.

The Rebel D has been inconsistent. They held the high powered O of Arkansas to 17 then let a below average O of Miss St. score 41. DE Hardy (1^st or high 2^nd) is the highest rated player on the team but FS Lewis should be a late round pick.

Oklahoma St. had a disappointing season as well. They were expected to compete for the Big 12 South title but lost to Houston in the pre-league schedule then had lopsided losses to Texas and Oklahoma. QB Robinson is a 3 year starter but had a less than expected senior year. He had a passer rating of 135 but that was down from 149 in 07 and 167 in 08. He is a late round prospect. The O line is led by top OT prospect Okung (early 1^st) and G Lewis (6^th). RB Tolson (6^th) averaged 5.4 with 11 TDs.

The OSU D features CB Cox (2^nd) and safeties Sexton and Antoine who are marginal prospects in the 7^th round.

Mississippi is a 3 point favorite but expect OSU to win in an upset.

LIBERTY BOWL East Carolina 9-4 Arkansas 7-5

Hog QB Mallett led the team to the 10^th best passing game in division 1. He threw for 3425 with 29 TDs and just 7 picks. His top receiver Childs had only 45 catches. Mallett spreads the ball around. G Petrus (4^th) heads up his protection.

The Hog D is horrible. It allowed 33 points to LSU in their overtime loss. Only DT Sheppard has a chance to be drafted from that group.

EC’s D will challenge Mallett. It is led by DE Wilson (3^rd), DT Ross (7^th) and S Eskridge (6^th). The D has played very well this year and seem to be getting better each week. The O is led by RB Lindsey. Most experts don’t believe he is a pro prospect but at 5-10 200 he is big enough. Behind an average line he averaged 5 per carry. I like his toughness.

The line is Hogs by 8 but I don’t think so. Take the points and EC may win outright.

ALAMO BOWL Michigan State 6-6 Texas Tech 8-4

This game will be ugly quickly. MSU had a horrible pass D even before the suspensions of several starters on D. TT G Carter (5^th) and T Winn (fa) will protect QB Potts. He will be throwing the ball without concern for the MSU d. TT is an 8 point favorite. MSU will be very lucky to keep it that close.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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OUTBACK BOWL Northwestern 8-4 Auburn 7-5

This game pits the Big 10 vs. SEC. NW wins over two ranked teams (Iowa and Wisconsin) in the last two games gave them hope they can break a 6 bowl losing streak. This is the first New Year’s day bowl since 97. QB Kafka has thrown for 2898 yards but only 12 TDs and 7 picks. He has to produce the majority of the O because the running game has struggled. RB Fields has averaged just 3.0 per attempt this year. The NW D is solid and is led by DE Wootton who should be a top 15 pick in the NFL Draft. The NW D will have to find a way to contain the Auburn running game or it will be a long day.

Auburn had its usual fast start 5-0 only to lose 5 of their final 7 games. QB Todd had a nice season with 2377 yards 21 TDs and just 6 picks. He was able to take advantage of opponent defenses focused on stopping the 13^th best running game in Division 1. RB Tate is the key. He ran for 1254 yards at a 5.8 per attempt and scored 8 TDs. He should be a 3^rd round pick in the draft.

The Tiger D is led by LB Coleman and DT Ricks both of whom are good draft prospects.

Auburn is the better team that played a better schedule and will win.

GATOR BOWL Florida St. 6-6 #16 West Virginia 9-3

This is the last game on the sideline for legendary coach Bowden. He is second in all time Div. 1 wins. Bowden’s problems in the last few years have been on D. He has not gotten the super athletes on D to be competitive at the highest level. This year’s D has 3 draftable players. CB Robinson is a 1^st round prospect. OB Watson is a 3^rd round prospect. I really like SS Rolle and he would be a steal in the 5^th round. QB Ponder is hurt but had a good year. His replacement Manuel has thrown more picks (6) than TDs (2). The running game is capable with RB Thomas averaging 5.2 per attempt.

WV has won 4 straight bowl games. They took advantage of a below average Big East to get to 9-3. QB Brown is supposed to be 4^th round prospect but don’t expect that. He has struggled this year an the team has averaged 211 per game passing which ranks a dismal 84^th. On O also watch OT Capers who may be a 2^nd round pick.

On D the team has been good but has no senior super stars. The FSU team will play their hearts out for Bowden and despite being the underdog, I expect a close game and maybe an FSU win.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL #12 LSU 9-3 #13 Penn St. 10-2

LSU should have at least on player taken in each of the 7 rounds of the draft. Potential 1^st round pick WR LaFell is 6-3 and is the prime target in the endzone for LSU. Look for OT Black and RB Scott to be picked in 2^nd and 4^th round respectively. Scott is a slasher who averaged 4.7 per attempt but injuries held him to just 116 carries. He is questionable for the game. The Tiger O ranks 108^th which is not good looking at a solid Penn State D. The LSU D is led by SS Coleman (3^rd or 4^th round) and DE Alem (4^th or 5^th). While the D started out well, it has struggled to get off the field in the last 4 games giving up over 380 yards a game.

PS QB Clark was the leading passer in the Big 10 but tended to throw picks at the worst times against the toughest competition. His 2009 performance has dropped him from a possible 4^th round pick to undrafted Free Agent status. Junior RB Royster has yet to decide if he will enter the draft. He averaged 5.9 per attempt and would be a 2^nd round pick most likely.

The strength of PS is the D which is led by DT Odrick (1^st round), ILBs Lee (2^nd) and Hull (5^th) .

The line is PS by 3 and that looks about right. If Scott doesn’t play it could be a lot worst than that.

ROSE BOWL #7 Oregon 10-2 #8 Ohio State 10-2

OSU Coach Tressel has suspended 3 players for the game including WR Small. That won’t help an O that has struggled this year. They have only 1 draftable Senior on O—C Cordle. The O line has been bad and QB Pryor has run for his life rather than running for first downs. The Bucks have the 106^th ranked passing O. Pryor has not improved in his 2^nd year as starter. In fact, he has become less accurate with worse mechanics than last year. The running game ranks 19^th with a gagle of backs contributing including Pryor.

The OSU D ranks 5^th in rushing D. That D will be tested often by the Ducks who rank 6^th in rushing. S Coleman and DT Worthington are both prospects in the last half of the 2010 Draft.

Oregon’s RB James hides in the back pocket of the Duck O line then bursts out to rip off big gains. USC never could find him let alone tackling him close to the line. James replaced RB Blount who was suspended for hitting a player after the Boise State game. QB Masoli has a passer rating of 130 and has a great target in TE Dickson (2^nd or 3^rd round). The Ducks are 7^th in scoring and will give the Buckeye D all they want.

Big 10 teams usually lose the Rose Bowl but that has been against USC most often. But the line is Oregon by 5. It shouldn’t be that close. However the best bet here is the under at 51.

SUGAR BOWL #3 Cincinnati 12-0 #5 Florida 12-1

The big question in this game is which Bearcat team will show up? Their coach is on his way to South Bend. This is big game not only for Cincy but for the Big East. This is their chance to show the football world that they are just as good as the big boys. Cincy is ranked 6^th in total O and scoring but that was not against the kind of D speed that Florida has. They will depend on QB Pike (2^nd or 3^rd) to WR Gilyard (top 20). The Cincy O ranked 7^th in passing despite the loss of Pike for a good deal of the season. RB Pead has average 6.6 per attempt. They won’t have that success against the Gators.

On D, Cincy has been solid led by DE Daniels and SS Webster both late round prospects. The team has been good against the run but a little soft vs the pass.

Florida has coaching questions of its own. Coach Meyer announced he was leaving the sideline but a day later that it was only a leave of absence. QB Tebow has been the bell cow of the team and is the spiritual leader. No other player in the draft has as many different views of his pro potential than Tebow. Experts rank his anywhere from top 3 to the middle of the 4^th round. I will have a detailed scouting report later. He has 2413 yards passing with 18 TDs and 5 picks. He added another 859 yards rushing with 13 TDs. WR Cooper (3^rd or 4^th) is solid. The O line has been a little shaky but has blocked enough to allow RB Demps to average 7.7 per carry.

The Florida D is led by LB Spikes (1^st) DE Cunningham (3^rd) and OB Stamper and Doe. Look for them to keep the pressure on Pike all day.

Florida is a 13 point favorite and it shouldn’t be that close. But Cincy has fooled teams before.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The 08 Vikings had an outstanding D, solid O line, the best RB in the league but no quality WRs and not much at QB. The result was an good season including winning the NFC North title ended without success in the playoffs. Now Favre steps into the huddle. But having Favre at QB doesn’t answer all the questions, it just creates others. The QB question is will Favre last the whole season? Probably. Is he an upgrade over what they had? Definitely.

Favre can do what the Vikes want to—pass just enough to keep the D honest. Will he? Probably not. Favre wants to put the ball down the field. But he will do what he is asked to do most of the time because even more than long TDs, he wants to stick it to the Packers.

Another question is does Coach Brad Childress lose credibility with the locker room? That depends on what he told the team vs. what he said publicly. If he was honest with the team, he will be fine. If he wasn’t honest with his team there will be a problem.

Favre has some nice weapons in his quiver. WRs Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice will start despite what you have read about Bobby Wade. Favre loves the occasional deep ball and both can go deep. Rookie Percy Harvin will challenge Wade for the slot receiver. But if Wade doesn’t win a job to start or be the 3^rd WR, he my not make the team. The TE is Visanthe Shiancoe. After a year and half struggle, he finally came on at the end of 08 and has the potential to be outstanding.

There is no doubt about the running game. Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league and will get even better if Favre can complete enough passes to keep 47 guys out of the box. AP should be the first draft in most Fantasy drafts this season. RB Chester Taylor is starting quality and gives AP a blow. You won’t hear his name much because the announcers can’t pronounce it but Naufahu Tahi is solid at FB.

The line of LT Bryant McKinnie, LG Steve Hutchinson, C John Sullivan, RG Anthony Herrera and RT Phil Loadholt is outstanding. Rookie Loadholt and C Sullivan are the new comers. Loadholt has potential and looked good in the first preseason game. Sullivan replaced the aged Matt Birk who went on to Baltimore. Hutch is all pro and plays like it. McKinnie seems to have gotten the message after being suspended last season for substance abuse and played well. Last year T Ryan Cook started most of the season and is the backup plan if Loadhold faulters. G/T Artis Hicks provides versatility as a backup as well.

The league tried to suspend DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams but they went to a state court and got the suspension put on hold. The issue is still not fully decided. The Williams boys are the best pair of DTs in the league. They join DEs Ray Edwards and Jared Allen, although Allen was injured recently and his status is undetermined. The line when healthy provides an excellent pass rush and stuff the run with authority. DE’s Brian Robison and Kenechi Udeze (assuming he is healthy) provide depth and Robinson will challenge Edwards to start.

SLB Chad Greenway and MLB E.J. Henderson are athletic and fast. They are a perfect complement to the D line. The team missed Henderson who lost the last 12 games of the regular season to injury. WLB Ben Leber is solid against the run and above average vs. the pass. Heath Farwell is back from injury to provide depth and rookie Jasper Brinkley has speed and potential.

The D backfield has some issues. CB Antoine Winfield was all pro last year and wanted a new deal but at 32, the team was slow to offer it. They got it done and Windfield is happy and richer. CB Cedric Griffin came on nicely last year. S Tyrell Johnson is a first time starter and is unproven but has potential. S Madieu Williams is coming off an injury. The nickel back is undetermined. CBs Marcus McCauley, Asher Allen, Karl Paymah, and Benny Sapp will battle for the spot and the bench positions.

OVERALL: The Vikings are now a real threat to win the NFC and the Super Bowl. They have all the parts and less holes than most of the other teams. The big question is Favre and the DBs. Favre should be at least better than the rest of the QBs. The DBs will have to hold up under a lot of passing attacks. The Vikes will score a lot of points and teams will have to pass to try and catch up.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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For the front office and the coaching staff, another 8 win season could well be their last. The pressure is on to get over the average hump and get not only a winning season but a spot in the playoffs. But the team has a lot of questions to answer before that happens.

Offense:

This is the third year of the “Matt Schaub” experiment. So far, Schaub has yet to complete a season. He is one of the talented but fragile QBs in the league. He is going to have to say healthy and improve in 09 to get this team into a playoff position. They are in the AFC South with two of the NFL’s best teams the Colts and the Titans. He must limit the turnovers and increase the TDs for the team to be competitive. His backups are Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky. Neither of those two are going to get the team to 9 or 10 wins.

The running game has had resurgence in 08 with rookie RB Steve Slaton. The team knew that Slaton had speed but were amazed with his ability to run inside through microscopic holes. There is quality and experience behind him in Ryan Moats, Cecil Sapp, and Chris Brown.

The receiver is outstanding—Andre Johnson. AJ has been a one man show making very average receivers Kevin Walter and 3WRs Andre’ Davis and David Anderson look good. AJ always has double or triple coverage. Walter had his best year in 08 and Davis can still go deep. Owen Daniels was drafted as a receiving TE but by hard work has developed into a good run blocker.

The line is coming around but isn’t there yet. All 5 started all 16 games. That is critical because of the zone blocking scheme the team uses. LT Duane Brown was a surprise 1^st round pick in 08 but I featured him in the sleepers column. He has developed into an above average LT with the chance to become outstanding. Gs Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel, C Chris Myers, and RT Eric Winston are all meshing well and should continue to improve as a group.

The only name behind this group is G Kasey Studdard but he may not make the final roster. Antoine Caldwell is pressing for a starting spot and C/G Chris White along with T Rashad Butler provide reserve strength.

The team has spent 3 first round picks on the D line but have not yet seen that level of results. RE Mario Williams was the first overall pick in 06 and DT Amobi Okoye was the 10^th pick in 07. NT Travis Johnson and LE Antonio Smith join the starters and all must generate much more pressure on the QB to produce turnovers. Rookie DE Connor Barwin will become a pass rush specialist to help accomplish that goal.

Injuries reduced the effectiveness of this group in 08. MB DeMeco Ryans was the only one that stayed healthy all year. SLB Zac Diles and WLB Xavier Adibi played well but went down with season ending injuries. Rookie Brian Cushing was handed the SLB before OTAs and Diles will have to fight to get a starting spot back at the weak side again Adibi. Kevin Bentley, Chaun Thompson and Cato June all have experience and improve the bench considerably. They too will challenge for playing time.

The best DB Dunta Robinson threatens a holdout. That is not good news for a group that suffered from injury and lack of pass rush. The other starters are projected to be FS Eugene Wilson, SS Dominique Barber, LCB Jacques Reeves. Look for both Fred Bennett and Antwaun Molden to challenge for CB spots.

OVERALL: Given the two games each against the Colts and the Titans, anything over 8 wins would be a bit of a surprise. The Texans will be third again and fail to make the playoffs again.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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