Cards @ Saints

Cards QB Warner had just another day at the office. Against one of the most improved Ds in the league he went 29-33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs without a pick. The Pack had no answer for Warner. They blitzed him and he picked man to man coverage apart. They rushed 3 and kept 8 in coverage and he found holes in the zones. The O line protected Warner for the most part and sub WRs did well to make up for the loss of WR Bolden.

On D, the Cards and the Pack allowed the score board to look like the something out of Pinball Wizard. Neither D could put consistent pressure on the others QB. The Pack was so focused on Warner that they allowed RB Wells 6.5 yards per attempt. They were lucky that their O was putting up so many points or Wells would have had more than his 14 carries. If the Cards are going to have any chance to stage the upset the D is going to have to play like they did last year in the playoff run to the Super Bowl. The passing game of the Saints is equally lethal. The Cards are 23^rd in pass D. The D may be missing DE Campbell, LBs Davis and Hayes. If they can’t go the D will be in even more trouble. Get your popcorn ready, this could be a wild offensive show.

Saints

The Saint’s D coordinator Williams isn’t sleeping too well this week. He has nightmares of Card WRs running wide open through his D backfield. The Saints D had played much better this year than last but it has had a tough time against high percentage passing attack. The good news is that CB Jenkins is hampered by a hamstring but is expected to play. The bad news is that Boldin is optimistic about playing as well. The Saints are ranked 26^th in pass D. The key to the game for the Saints D will be their ability to pressure Warner better than the Pack did.

The Saints O is outstanding. They are 1^st in both yards and points, 4^th in passing and 6^th in rushing. The team stumbled into the playoffs with 3 straight losses. The O is going to have to play like they did early in the season and not in the last 3 games. They scored only 44 points in those losses. The 23-10 loss to the Panthers could have been explained by the team resting a lot of the key players but not the losses to the Boys and the Bucs. The problem was not rushing. They ran for 124 against the Bucs. The problem was not turnovers or completion percentage. The Saints may get RB Thomas back. That will help them get a running game going again.

The problem was they could not get the ball into the endzone. The game will depend on the Saints finding their scoring punch again. If they are forced to kick field goals to score, they will lose.

Both teams have a questionable D. But the Saints are struggling on O and the Cards are hotter than the sun. I will go out on a limb and pick the Cards in a huge upset.

Ravens @ Colts

Ravens

The Birds did a great job pressuring the Pats D with the running game. The O scored 33 points but got a lot of help from the Pats. They won’t get that kind of help from the Colts.

The O is going to have to get more out of the passing game. They won 3 of their last 4 games but those wins were against the dregs of the NFL. Against a team that scores like the Colts, 4-10 for 34 yards and a pick will not get it done. QB Flacco has not stepped up to the challenge like most expected him to do. The O line isn’t the problem, accuracy and lack of game breaking receivers are the critical issues. The coaching staff doesn’t trust Flacco to win games for them and they shouldn’t. He has crumbled in big games like against the Steelers. The running game is solid but won’t score often enough to keep the Ravs in the game. They will have to depend on the passing game and it will let them down.

The weakest part of the Ravs D is the pass defense. They are 5^th against the run and 8^th against the pass. They depend on pressure on the QB to control the pass. They won’t be able to get enough pressure on Manning to stop the Colts passing game.

Colts

The Colt O is devastating but it is one dimensional. They are #2 in passing but dead last in the running game. They are going to have to run the ball a little to keep the chains moving. The one advantage they have is that they can play catchup really well. Manning is playing at a very high level. The team lost 2 games but in both cases Manning and company were pulled early.

The Colt D has played great in some games and lousy in others. They rank 24^th against the run and will get a lot of practice stopping it against the Ravs. The key injuries on D are all probable. That should help as the D has suffered a lot of injuries during the season. The rest the wounded got will help them.

The key to stopping the running game has been S Sanders but he is on IR again. The Colts’ D will struggle stopping the run but will get the win due to their O.

Saturday I will discuss the Sunday games.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over.  Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/.  Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Chargers 42 Titans 17

The only question on the minds of the Chargers is did they peek too soon. They have been on a hot streak for weeks. With the history of failure in the playoffs, Coach Turner needs to get to the AFC Championship game with this group this year. The team is getting older and the window to a title is closing.

Ravens @ Steelers

The Birds have what the Steelers want—a spot in the playoffs. The Ravens have a 1 game advantage on Pit and won’t give it up easily. The Raven O has been inconsistent and must be balanced to succeed. They have won 2 in a row.

The Steelers have lost 5 of their last 6 winning a surprising victory against the Pack last week. The likelihood is that was an aberration rather than a turn around for the team. The Ravens should win even on the road.

Jaguars @ Patriots

The Jags are playing well but the Pats need the win to stay on top of the AFC East. The Pats’ D is not playing well but the Jags’ O is very inconsistent. If the Jags’ O is hot, they can beat almost anyone. But the Pats should win a close game.

Broncos @ Eagles

This might be the best game of the weekend. The Broncos are holding on by a single strand of a spider’s web to the last AFC wildcard. After an outstanding effort beating the Giants, the Broncos have lost 2 in a row including a disastrous loss last week to the Raiders.

The Eagles are on top of the NFC East by 1 game over the Cowboys. If the Boys lose they will not make the playoffs. The Eagles have clinched at least a wild card spot and should win.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The winds of change blowing through Cleveland

GM George Kokinis was frog walked out of the complex on Monday. Owner Randy Lerner told the press that he was going to hire a football guy with solid credentials to help rebuild the organization. Good luck with that. Nobody with “solid credentials” would touch that job with a 100 yard stick. For my full analysis of the Browns situation, check out my article on NFLDraftDog.com

The Colts lose 3/4ths of its D backfield

The biggest loss was all pro S Sanders. The Colts give up nearly a full yard per rushing attempt more without Sanders on the field. He is gone for the year. Starting CB Jackson is also out for the season. CB Hayden is out for a couple of weeks with a knee.

Cards @ Bears

The O line of the Cards is going to have to do a lot better this week than they have so far this year if the team is going to win on a regular basis. Warner needs protection and he hasn’t gotten it. The D is playing a full level below the way they did during the playoff run last year.

The Bears have their own problems. Their O line has put QB Cutler under way too much pressure and the WRs have not done him any favors either. The Bear D will play well but the Cards’ O line won’t. The Bears win.

Ravens @ Bengals

The Bengals won in Baltimore and the Ravens need this game badly. It looked like the Raven D was nearly back to the Super Bowl years in performance against the Broncos last week. But that was a mirage. The Broncos had not played a good D up to that game.

The Bengals are winning based on a D playing better as a unit than their individual players indicate they can. That has to continue against a really good Raven O. The running game has also been a center post of their game with RB Benson.

This game will come down to which team generates the most turn overs. The Raven D will and they win in a close game.

Chargers @ Giants

The Giants need this game. Their O has suffered due to the lack of NFL quality receivers. The D has been put in too many bad positions by the O failing to convert 3^rd downs. The lack of a passing threat has been mostly responsible for the low yards per attempt of the running game as well.

The Chargers have been very inconsistent as well. They are 4-3 but 2 of those wins have come over Oakland which hardly counts. RB Thomlinson seems to be getting back to form since the bye. Rivers will be better as the running game returns. Because the Giants need the game worse they should win.

Cowboys @ Eagles

The Boys are playing like girls. They need this game but the Eagles have been playing much better in the last few weeks. The Eagles will pressure QB Romo into errors and they will win the game.

Steelers @ Broncos

The fall of the Broncos continues as the Steelers have righted the ship. When the Steeler D puts pressure on Bronco QB Orton he will make mistakes. The Steelers live on errors and win.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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There is no question that the window for the Ravens to win another Super Bowl is closing. The D is getting older and there are still questions on O. The Ravens will be different but there is serious doubt that they will be better or worse than in 08.

The D will be a little younger. The Ravens jettisoned their expensive and injury prone pro bowl CB Chris McAlister and brought in FA Domonique Foxworth. He had better work out because they are spending 27 million for the next 4 years with over 16 mil guaranteed. The other corner will be ex Raider Fabian Washington. Samari Rolle who was a starter came back on a backup contract and will be the key replacement. FS Ed Reed is older than dirt but played at a high level last year. He had better be just as good this season. The SS spot is up in the air. The Ravens have their fingers, toes, arms and legs crossed that Dawan Landry can come back after missing all but 2 games from a neck injury last year. There isn’t much behind him so he had better get well soon.

The linebacking will get new look as well. Tavares Gooden replaces Bart Scott inside next to Ray Lewis. He needs to be more physical than he has shown up to now. Lewis is older than rock but got it done last year. He is on the down side of a Hall of Fame career. Jarret Johnson is unknown but has started for 2 years and is getting better with every game. Terrell Suggs wanted to be paid like a DE but got top OB money—63 mil over 6 years. The Ravens hope he plays with as much abandon as he did in his contract year.

On offense, TE Todd Heap will get a heap of passes thrown his way. The WR situation went from critical to life support when their only consistent receiver Derrick Mason announced his retirement. If he doesn’t come back, they are going to have to find another starting quality WR. Mark Clayton starts on the other side but has caught over 50 passes only once in the last 4 years.

Joe Flacco has developed nicely. He will yield to Troy Smith for more wild cat type O than they used last year. The RB will be by committee. Last year starter Willis McGahee and the versatile Ray Rice will split carries. Rice may start over McGahee who is coming back from injury again.

The O line is physical and nasty. All pro FA Matt Birk takes over at C and gives the team real leadership. The left side is solid with LT Jared Gaither and LG Ben Grubbs. Both are young and talented. They will only get better. The right side is a question mark. Rookie Michael Oher and vet Adam Terry will battle for the RT spot. Oher should win. They hope that RG Marshal Yanda has recovered from his knee injury. If not, that will be a trouble spot for the Ravens.

Overall—The Ravens have enough to be a playoff team but unless they get all the right answers from those coming back from injury and find a solution to the WR spot, they will be second again looking over their shoulder at the Bengals coming on hard from behind.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• What to look for in the Saturday Divisional round games.

Fryingpan Sports

Saturday’s Niblets from around the net for 03/14/09

By Bill Smith

Best comment this week:

From Sportsbook on Capologist is the NFL MVP

Comment:

You are right and it is unfortunate, but I have a feeling that this will get settled in the 11th hour like it was last time. Last time, the economy was good. This time, the NFL will look even worse if they can’t settle this mess and keep the fans happy.

Also, this will be Goodell’s first test. Yes, we know he’s a sheriff and can suspended players when necessary, but what about the labor talks? How competent is he with that?

My Analysis: we will all find out how good a negotiator he is soon enough. But it takes two parties committed to getting a deal done to accomplish a contract. My fear is that the campaign rhetoric coming from the candidates to replace Gene Upshaw as the Executive Director of the NFL Players Association indicates that Goodell may not have a reasonable partner with whom to bargain.

UPDATES ON PREVIOUS COLUMNS:

The 08-09 Cavilers are not your fathers team.

Thursday night the Cavs on their west coast road trip came back from a significant deficit to beat the Suns. While wins on the road don’t necessarily translate to NBA Championships, their road record against really good teams shows they have taken another step toward becoming a championship caliber team.

My Analysis: They are showing the physical style of play to beat teams in the east but can also play an up and down game to compete with the wide open style of the western conference.

Big name cuts in the NFL have little to do with the salary cap.

Big names continue to get cut. The Rams cut both OT Orlando Pace and WR Torry Holt. The Ravens cut CB Samari Rolle. We usually see these cuts after June 1 so that the cap hit can be spread over a couple of cap years. This year there is no cap in 2010 onto which a team can spread the hit. As a result, the teams are making all their cuts now.

News from around the net:

A-FRAUD Jersey has been baned by MLB.

One of the fastest selling jerseys in the MLB has been banned. The Commissioner’s office announced that it will outlaw the shirts.

My Analysis: While that may not be a violation of free speech guaranteed in the Constitution, it is at least proof that the truth hurts. A-Fraud probably called the Commish and complained that it hurt his feelings.

The Cincinnati Bungles do something right!

The Bengals signed WR FA Lavernious Coles. Former Jet Coles is not only a vet, he is a true professional and a gentleman.

My Analysis: Maybe the Bungles have learned that players that hang out in the Hamilton County Correctional facility don’t really help you win games.

Syracuse basketball team shows real grit in the Big East Tournament.

Syracuse and Connecticut played a marathon 6 over time game Thursday night. Despite the fact that both teams will be in the Big Dance, the teams fought it out until after 1AM eastern time. Syracuse finally won the game. It was one of the most exciting games I have seen in a very long time.

As the winner, they got to play a tough West Virginia team on Friday night. The team showed great grit in fighting all the way against a much more rested Mountaineer club. Orange was behind much of the game and clawed their way to as much as a 5 point lead late in the second half. But for the Orange, this year nothing is easy. WV tied the score and forced the game to overtime. Even though the Orange looked deflated as the clock hit 0.0, they somehow found the energy deep inside them to win it in overtime.

My Analysis: In many ways, the grit of the Orange reminds me of the way that the Cavs grind out wins. This game was sloppy at times due to fatigue but the intensity of play is what makes college sports so special. Things only get screwed up when the “adults” get in the way of the kids playing the game.

Two Ohio State NFL Draft prospects use their pro day at OSU to try to recover from bad 40 times at the combine.

CB Malcolm Jenkins ran a relatively respectable unofficial time of between 4.46 seconds and 4.53 seconds in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day according to Plain Dealer reporter Doug Lesmerises. His teammate RB Chris Wells unofficially ran between 4.34 seconds and 4.46 seconds.

My Analysis: The pro day will help Wells much more than Jenkins. Times between 4.46 and 4.53 will cause some teams to categorize him as a safety rather than a CB. That could drive him down in the draft to at best a late 1^st early second round pick. Jenkins has to hope that his work on the field will convince at least one GM that he can be a shut down corner worthy of a top 15 selection.

Wells should regain the status as the top running back in the draft with his time. However, his durability will still be a concern.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

NFL prepares for free agency and some cuts go deep.

By Bill Smith

Franchise Tags

Giants

The Giants had to put the franchise tag on RB Brandon Jacobs. It was a good move because RB Ahmad Bradshaw is in jail in Virginia from a probation violation and the top backup to Jacobs, Derrick Ward is a free agent as well. The Giants front office screwed up by allowing both top RBs to become FA in the same year. It will cost them because Jacobs will be the average of the top 5 RB salaries which should be around 7.5 million dollars.

It will also cost them to resign Ward. He fired his agent and hired Drew Rosenhaus who is famous for getting the max for his players. When the agent is wearing a mask and carrying a gun, you know the deal is going to be costly.

Ravens

The Ravens have franchised DE\LB Terrell Suggs. That means that Ray Lewis will be an unrestricted free agent (UFA). Lewis has already said that while he would like to continue to play in Baltimore he would not give the team a “home town discount.” If Lewis moves to another team it will take a couple of years for the D to get back to where it was in 08. It is well documented that Lewis is the heart and soul of the D but there is more to the issue. He is also the brains and the enforcer.

It is the enforcer role that the D will miss most. When a Raven is not playing up to expectations in either a game or practice, it is Lewis that gets on him and challenges him to change gears. A team like the Vikings, Redskins, Dolphins or Cowboys would benefit greatly from signing Lewis. Each team has an above average D lineup but each has not produced on the field up to expectations. Lewis would straighten out the kinks in the D and get them producing.

Bengals

The Bungles are at it again. Instead of franchising their one offensive weapon WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, they franchised their kicker. Now it looks like the Bengals will be without both starting WRs because Chad Johnson is also rumored to be on his way out. The Bungles will probably pick up a WR or two in the 09 Draft. While PK Shayne Graham is valuable, the punter Kyle Larson is on the field more than Graham. Mikey Brown, this is another fine mess you’ve gotten us into!

Cuts:

New Orleans cut RB Deuce McAllister. If they think that Reggie Bush can carry the load of 250+ carries, they are wrong. Bush will be on IR by the 4^th game.

The Jaguars released RB Fred Taylor after 11 years of service. Taylor was disappointed but expected the news. Taylor is 33. Expect the Jags to sign RB Maurice Jones-Drew to an 8 million a year deal. Former FB Greg Jones will be the backup.

The Buccaneers will not try to resign FA QB Jeff Garcia who started for them for the last 3 years. The team signed Luke McCown to a 2 year contract. That is not good news for a very good defense that is aging. The team is capable of winning now and McCown is not capable of managing the offense to wins at this level.

The Ravens cut about 8 mil off their payroll by releasing CB Chris McAlister. McAlister has been one of the top CBs in the league when he was healthy. Unfortunately that was not very often. McAlister will only be 32 by the start of the 09 season and should be able to find work.

The Broncos released DL Dewayne Robertson on Monday, Feb. 16. Robertson was one of the huge mistakes in FA signings that cost those involved their jobs. He was scheduled to make 16 million this season. That would have been about 4 mill per sack.

The Broncos also released DL John Engelberger, LB Niko Koutouvides, SS Marquand Manuel, and LB Jamie Winborn from a D that couldn’t buy its way off the field.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

Changing Defensive Fronts is usually a bad idea.

By Bill Smith

The NFL is a copycat league. The Ravens and Steelers had the best defenses in the league. They both play a 3-4. Last year there were 7 teams that played the 3-4 as their base defense. There are 9 new head coaches in the NFL this year and you can bet that some of them are going to change their D fronts to match their own style of play. Josh McDaniels, the new coach of the Broncos has already said he is going to switch to a 3-4. Packer coach Mike McCarthy isn’t new but he is changing to the 3-4 as well. While it may make the job of the new 3-4 based coaching staff easier, very seldom is that a good idea. The requirements of a 4-3 defensive front and a 3-4 are very different.

The hardest thing to find in the draft beside a starting quality NFL quarterback is an NFL quality nose tackle for a 3-4. The key to a 3-4 defense is the NT. He has to cause so much havoc on the line that the opponent has to dedicate at least 2 blockers to him on every play. To be really effective, a team needs 2 quality NTs. There are about 5 NTs in the league now that can do that and in 2009 there will be more than double that many teams using the 3-4.

Another absolutely critical requirement is at least 2 outside linebackers that can rush the QB effectively. Those 3-4 teams that have not yet found a quality blitz linebacker like the Browns are doomed to fail. Blitz linebackers are also very hard to find.

The other problem that a 4-3 team has in converting to a 3-4 is the lack of pass rushing 285 pounders to play DE. The teams like the Pack are going to try to make Aaron Kampman a 265 pound DE an outside linebacker. That may work with Kampman but won’t with most DEs. They can’t cover pass receivers and struggle to adapt to their new position.

The teams that run a 3-4 well get an advantage because their opponents don’t see a 3-4 often. Those that try to covert a bad 4-3 into a 3-4 get a worse 3-4. If you don’t have the personnel to make a 3-4 work, you usually stop the run better with the traditional 4-3.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

Are teams better off with first time coaches

By Bill Smith

Up until a couple of years ago, NFL owners that were in need of a coach overwhelmingly chose older guys with previous head coaching experience. Then in 2007 things seemed to change. First time HCs seemed to be in vogue.

Mike Smith was the defensive coordinator of the Jaguars from 2003-07. He was not exactly a young first time HC but a first time HC none the less. He was 47 when he was selected as head coach for the Atlanta Falcons. In his first year he led the team which had been 4-12 to the playoffs in 08 and a 11-5 record. He and rookie QB Matt Ryan also helped erase the stain that Mike Vick had caused to the franchise.

In January of 2008, the 1-15 Miami Dolphins hired Tony Sparano as head coach. He had coached the O line for the Cowboys and had 3 years as assistant head coach. He led one of the most inept teams in NFL history to 11-5 and the AFC East championship. Sparano had help. Bill Parcells joined the team as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations for the Miami Dolphins and helped transform the roster.

Also in January 2008, John Harbaugh, another first time coach was hired in Baltimore. His background was 9 years as special teams coach and one season as secondary coach for the Eagles. He inherited a winning team that fallen to 5-11 in 07 from a 13-3 record in 06. When the starting and back up went down QB, Harbaugh turned to a rookie 1^st round choice Joe Flacco. The two led the Ravens to 11-5 record and a wild card spot in the playoffs.

On Jan. 14, 2007 Ken Whisenhunt was hired as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. In 2006 the team had been 5-11 and last in the weak NFC West. In 08 he got the team to 8-8 and second place behind the Seahawks. In 2008 he led the team to 9-7, a NFC West championship and 2 playoff wins. He had been the offensive coordinator of the Steelers for 3 years.

These 4 have had significant success in most cases with a less than quality team. However, two things must be mentioned. First, the record of this group of first time head coaches is not the norm. In total, first year HCs have had a pretty lack luster history. Second, while quick success is nice, will it last? All NFL coaches will be fired at some point. Even those in the Hall of Fame like Paul Brown have been sent packing at some point.

The newest round of hirings of head coaches include both first time HCs and retreads. The Browns hired Eric Mangini who had been fired by the Jets a few days before. My crystal ball tells me that Mangini will do OK and OK will be a great improvement over Romeo Crennel who had no head coaching experience before taking the Browns even further down the tubes. But there are a number of retread coaches with HC experience that are looking for work. Those names include Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan, and Brian Billick all of whom have won Super Bowls. But these 4 teams decided to go the rookie HC route.

Tampa Bay picked Raheem Morris yesterday one day after firing Jon Gruden. Morris who is 32 was discussed yesterday morning on this site. My guess is that Tampa will struggle. Morris had just been selected to be D coordinator and went to get a hair cut for his news conference. When he arrived back at 1 Buccaneer Place, he was the head coach. The Glazer’s said in a press conference that one of the primary reason they selected Morris was that he could relate to the players. That is not the question. The real issue is does he have enough experience to get the respect of the players. Players can tell in the first 10 minutes of the first practice if a coach knows his stuff or not. If Morris isn’t up to the job, the veteran team will eat him alive whether they like him or not. I think Tampa fans are in for a disappointment.

The St. Louis Rams hired Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo as their first time HC. Reportedly, Rex Ryan DC of the Ravens was the teams first choice but owner Chip Rosenbloom decided not to wait for Baltimore to be eliminated from the playoffs. Rosenbloom was also worried that Ryan might opt for the Jets job over that of the Lambs. Spags deserved a lot of credit for the victory of the Giants over the Pats in the Super Bowl. But Spags has only one year of DC experience. Prior to that he had spent 8 years as a defensive position coach with the Eagles. Again I am not convinced he can turn the 2-14 St. Louis Lambs around. While Spags was the top candidate for several jobs, he just doesn’t have the depth of experience to get the most out of a team in desperate need of rebuilding.

Perhaps the best bet to keep his job for more than 4 years is the new head coach of the Lions, Jim Schwartz the Titans defensive coordinator. Schwartz can only hope that the Ford family will give him as many chances as they did for Matt “watch me mess up a franchise” Millen the former GM. Schwartz takes over a team that was historically horrible. It was the only team in NFL history to go 0-16 in a regular season. The biggest problem Schwartz has is the lack of talent both on the field and in the upper management positions of the team. The new executive leadership of the Lions is now in the hands of Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew. Mayhew was the former assistant GM and Lewand was promoted to executive vice president and chief operating officer February 1, 2003. His duties included football administration and player development. In the last 5 season, there has been very little of either. Both of these guys were there while Millen was allowed to run a muck with the roster. That is not a good sign for all 26 Lions fans. Neither of these guys seemed to have enough guts or power to convince the Fords to dump Millen years ago. Millen’s Lions produced the worst 8 year record in NFL history. Those long term problems are not going to be solved by those that were accessories to the carnage. Schwartz has an excellent reputation around the NFL. He was DC with Tennessee for 6 years leading the team to a top 10 finish statistically in almost all those seasons. The Titan defense ended up second in scoring D this season. Defense will be an entirely new concept in Detroit. They haven’t had one in years.

The Broncos replaced Mike Shanahan with Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels had been the Pats OC for only 2 seasons. McDaniels helped fine tune the Pats 07 offense into the highest scoring teams in NFL history. I am sure that having Tom Brady as your QB and Randy Moss and Wes Welker at WR really helped. However, he did have a direct effect on Matt Cassel’s success this season. Of the newbies, I think McDaniels might have the best chance. Unlike when Mangini was hired by the Jets, Bill Belichick gave McDaniels a glowing public reference and wished him the best. However, I am sure that does not include games against the Pats. I expect McDaniels to be fairly successful. However, the Broncos are going to have to get a lot better on defense and more consistent play from their offense to get back to the playoffs.

There are a lot of factors in turning a bad team around. One of the most important is getting the maximum performance out of the talent a coach has. Only time will tell whether the teams that hired first time HC made the right decision. If I am wrong, I will let you know. If they are wrong, it will set their franchises back years.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

A Few Good NFL Stories of 2008 season.

By Bill Smith

While many of you will find this article a departure from the normal frying pan analysis, I wanted to give accolades to some of those I think deserve them.

Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals—The Cards have been the flavor of the month for several preseasons. They have the best receiver combination in the league and a potential Hall of Fame QB. The Cards wining their division was not all that surprising. The NFC West has been a weak division for a while. But to beat the Falcons and then go and drill the heavily favored Panthers in their house was a shock. Now that the Eagles knocked off the Giants, the Cards may have a shot to go to the Super Bowl. Win or not, at least they have brought some success to the fans.

The Arizona Cardinal Defense, head coach Ken Whisenhunt and defensive coaches—Congratulations on your stealth defense. You made all of us think you were a middle of the road defense then suckered the Falcons and Panthers into believing that before you dominated them. It was either an acting job worthy of an Oscar or your plan to go back to basics at the end of the season. The D has played outstanding football and you deserve to be in the NFC Championship.

The Miami Dolphins and head coach Tony Sparano—Turning the team around from 1-15 to 11-5 and a division championship is just short of a miracle. Congratulations to everyone involved.

Chad Pennington QB Dolphins—You got the bums rush out of New York but the bigger the insult the greater is the satisfaction of revenge. Many doubted you, including myself, but you showed all of us wrong. Your revenge was extra fine by clinching the AFC East by beating your old team and knocking them out of the playoffs.

The Atlanta Falcons, owner Arthur Blank, head coach Mike Smith and his staff—You not only pulled off an outstanding turnaround, but went a long way to restore the reputation of the franchise after the Mike Vick affair. Mr. Blank is one of the good guys in the league and deserves this success.

Donovan McNabb—When he got benched in week 12, the fans, the media, and even the organization was dumping on McNabb like he was a chuckhole in the freeway. But he was not done. He sparked the Eagles turnaround when everyone outside the locker room left the team for dead and out of the playoffs. He and the Eagles are now in the NFC Championship game.

Bill Belichick—Those of you that read this site regularly know how much this pains me to say but you have to give the devil its due. 2008 might well have been the best coaching job Belichick has ever done. He lost the best QB in the league in the first quarter of the first game. The injury list went on and on. He lost half a dozen starters on D and almost that many on O including his franchise running back and a couple of pro bowl quality corners. Even so, he used duct tape and paper clips to take the team to 11 wins. Even though the team failed to make the playoffs, it was an outstanding coaching job.

Tim Tebo—After the loss to Ole Miss, he took the team on his back and willed them to a national championship. Then he made one of his best decisions ever to stay at Florida for his senior year. Despite his leadership and grace under pressure, many draft experts are not sure he is accurate enough or has a strong enough arm to play QB in the NFL. Because of his decision, he will have another year to prove he can do the job at the next level. And by the way it also gives him another shot at a second Heisman and a third national championship in 4 years.

Anquan Boldin WR Cardinals—We all held our breath after the hit that injured you. Then we all cheered when you came back and continued to play at an all pro level. You are a warrior. You have won the respect of football fans all over the country.

Joe Flacco and the Ravens—Despite feelings about how the city got its team, I have to give the team and staff credit for not only getting into the playoffs but making it to the AFC Championship game. The victory over Miami was a nice win but the job the team did in beating Tennessee was outstanding. Flacco has played like a veteran and can become one of the best in the league.

Randy Lerner and the Browns—As you know, I have expressed some concern about the new people being brought in. However, I congratulate Mr. Lerner for cleaning house and at least giving the long suffering Browns fans some hope. Next to Bill Cowher, Eric Mangini was the best experienced coach available. He got a raw deal in NY and hopefully can do better in Cleveland. We are still holding our breath to see who Mr. Lerner brings in as GM.

Tony Dungy—May you have success and find joy in whatever you do next. You have been a great credit to the NFL and it was a joy watching you coach. We all hope you might stay for another season or two. But you have given so much to the game you deserve to do whatever makes you happy.

Willie Parker RB Steelers—Congratulations on your performance in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Those of us that drafted you in fantasy football would have preferred if you had been as successful during the season but congrats anyway.

Cedric Benson RB Bengals—By your play in the last half of the season for the Bengals, you have resurrected your career. The Bengals were in dire need of a solid running game and you have the talent to provide it. Work hard and stay away from boats and you will be fine.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Frying Pan Sports

The NFL needs to take out the clowns wearing the stripes.

By Bill Smith

Technorati Tags: nfl,football,officials,Ravens,Titans,fans,strike,coach,Big 10,college football

How can you tell the difference between an NFL official and a postal worker? The postal worker is the one that is armed. If the NFL officials continue to rob teams and fans of wins they have earned on the field, the zebras may need to be armed as well.

Officiating in the NFL has been getting steadily worse. The playoff game between Tennessee and Baltimore is just the latest example of ineptness.

The play clock runs out on the Ravens, and no official stops play. The Ravens complete a 32 yard pass and move on to win the game.

A Raven is twisting Tennessee running back Charles Johnson backwards after he is down trying to break his back. One of his linemen come up and pull the offender off. The officials call the lineman for a personal foul.

This was a playoff game. This collection of clowns are supposed to be the best in the league. If these guys are the best, that explains a lot about how sloppy and unprofessional the officiating has been in the regular season.

Any coach or player that even suggests that an official missed a call is fined and or suspended. GET A GRIP. If these guys can’t do a better job than that fire them all and the pinheads that manage them and start over. Even if you get Big 10 officials, it can’t get any better. And the Big 10 officials are nothing to write home about.

These guys are either totally incompetent or are fixing the games. It is impossible to come to any other conclusion. I don’t for a minute believe that the NFL is fixed. I believe the officials are just totally inept.

Anyone that operates without accountability operates inefficiently. That is the problem with football officials in general and NFL officials in particular. When an official screws up, with only one exception, it is the coach that complains about the error that gets fined and sometimes suspended not the official.

Part of the problem is that in general the officials are too old, too fat and way too slow to keep up with the game that gets faster and more complex every year. As a former coach in semi-pro football, I have the scars of someone that took on the officials. I won the battle but the war goes on.

I have also officiated games. It is not easy but how do you fail to notice the play clock expiring or a guy going out of the back of the endzone?

I don’t imply here that the officials intentionally make bad calls or fail to make calls based on a desire for one team to win. They are not athletes and can not keep up with today’s game. Over the years the NFL has adjusted the mechanics of officials to offset the speed issue. But no adjustment can be enough to make up for a bunch of overweight old men trying to keep up with the speed of the NFL game.

It is WAY past time that the NFL make public when an official is suspended or fired. Covering up the errors and omissions of these men is unacceptable. It is also time that the coaches and the players who question decisions of the incompetent officials be labeled as whistle blowers and protected from the Nazi style retribution of the league.

The fans have had more than enough of this crap. The players risk their limbs and futures to win a championship deserve better than these clowns. If that is the best you can do, dump the league because it is getting to the point that it is not worth watching. If it does not improve very soon, it is time for a fan strike. I will be happy to lead it.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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