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Unexpected consequences of the uncapped 2010.

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There are many things that will happen in the 2009-2010 off season that are directly resulting from the inability of the NFL owners and NFLPA to come to a Collective Bargaining Agreement before Mr. 5.

Without a cap, poor teams will dump high cost players.

Teams that are in financial trouble will be able to dump high cost players and replace they with minimum salary guys. Teams like Buffalo and Jacksonville have been losing with their current players so there is no reason to keep them. The end of the cap means there is no longer a minimum amount that teams must spend. Look for a number of bottom end teams to dump expensive players.

High price players in the last few years of their contract can be dropped without penalty.

Even middle of the road teams and upper level teams will drop some high priced players that they do not intend to resign when their contracts expire. Rumors have the Panthers cutting DE Peppers; the Cards cutting S Rolle; the Packers cutting OL Colledge; the Jets cutting OG Faneca and OB Gholston; the Raiders finally cutting QB Russell. Those are just a few of the name players that will be cut due to the end of the cap.

The rich (in both money and talent) will get richer.

According to the latest news about the CBA last year rules, the teams that were not in the final 8 in the playoffs can sign as many high priced FA as they want. Teams in the final 8 can sign players as long as they lose or cut an equal number of starter salary level players as well. The league has long prospered based on a competitive balance between the top of the league and the bottom. This season there were the haves and have nots but very few teams in the middle.

The non-TV revenue sharing that was part of the CBA is gone.

The NFL already announced that it will cut 100 million from the revenue sharing program. There will be more cuts leaving the bottom feeders like Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville with even less of a chance to survive.

Restricted Free Agents will not get contracts approaching Unrestricted FA.

The best group of players that would have been free agents is the 4 years of service class. There are 212 players that under the CBA would have been unrestricted FAs that in the final year will be only Restricted Free Agents. Under the RFA status, the current team has the first right of refusal to match any certified offer the player gets from another team. These guys are irate and understandably so. They will have very little leverage to get a UFA type contract from their current teams. They will also not get the kind of poison pill contract offers from other teams. A poison pill is a very expensive bonus or other payment that the current team is unlikely to match to keep the player. With quality players being cut, there will be a few buyers for a large supply of players. The players in that environment will get lower contract offers.

The UFL will pick up some of the RFA players.

The UFL started with a hope that 1) the NFL would go on strike in 2011 and 2) that they could get some name players from the NFL that were cut or unwilling to accept the money offered by the NFL. Given the group of RFA players that have been denied UFA status by the opt out of the CBA. The combination of their frustration with the NFL for being RFAs and the near certainty of no play in 2011, some of these players will jump to the UFL.

For those of you that are old like me and remember the USFL, it will be interesting to see if the UFL makes the same mistake. The USFL folded in part because they tried to outbid the NFL for key players like Hershal Walker. The UFL won’t have to get into a bidding war. The players will want to play and the UFL probably will not have any competition in 2011.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday morning at 11. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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What to look for in the Sunday Divisional round games.

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Cowboys @ Vikings

Cowboys

Prior to this season the Boys folded in December. When JJ issued his threat to blow up the team and the coaching staff this season unless the Boys got into the playoffs and did well, the team got the message. This team has played a lot better than they did in previous seasons but I am not on the Boy bandwagon yet.

The O has been solid but the last two games were played against an Eagle D that seemed to give up after being in a position to win the NFC East. In the upset win over the Saints, QB Romo had a QB rating of 104. In the two games against the Eagles he had ratings of 86.1 and 106. That is a great improvement over last year when he finished the year with ratings of 44.9, 66.2 and 55.8 in the 3 losses. The improved Romo is the key to difference in this years team. The Boys will need as much passing as he can generate because they will not be able to get much on the ground against the Vikes.

RB Jones ran for 148 yards but that is misleading. Take out the two long runs and he had a 4 yard average. That is VERY average. Starter Barber is probable but is coming off a knee and won’t be close to 100%.

The other key to the turnaround is the play of the O line. The line had been living on an undeserved rep. In the latter part of the season they started to play up to that rep. They will have to against an outstanding D line of the Vikes.

The Cowboy D has also had the habit of playing up or down to the competition. The key will be pressure on QB Favre. If they can pressure him, they will have a chance. The pass D ranked 20th giving up over 200 yards per game. Balanced offenses give them problems. The Vikes can be very balanced when they chose to be.

Vikings

The Vikes tend to throw too much on O. That habit tends to get them in trouble. QB Favre can light up the scoreboard but can also throw enough picks to kill the team’s playoff hopes. The Vikes ended the season just 2-3 in December including an embarrassing loss to the Panthers. Favre had a passer rating of 73.7 in that loss. The team ranked 8th in passing.

The running game is solid with the leagues best back Peterson. But he has 1 100 yard game in the last half of the season. The O line had not been opening holes for the running game and Peterson has gotten beaten up. Peterson has to get over 100 yards for the Vikes to win. That is going to require the O line to play at a higher level. G Hutchinson is probable for the game. He would help the O line a great deal.

The Viking D is solid as well. It ranks 2nd against the run but 19th against the pass. The key to the Vikes winning the game is shutting down the Boys running game and forcing Romo into mistakes. Given enough pressure, he will make errors.

This is a very hard game to call but I think the Vikes have just enough to beat the Boys. The Cowboys will not be able to run and will not be able to keep up with Favre and the Vikes.

Jets @ Chargers

Jets

The Jets beat a Bengals team that was inexperienced in the playoffs. That is not the case with the Chargers. The game will depend on how hot Jet QB Sanchez can get. The Jets took advantage of an easy schedule and even then needed gifts from both the Bengals and the Colts to get into the playoffs. The O has the top ranked running game. That is a good thing because in the last 3 weeks of the season, Sanchez had passer ratings of 49.7, 78, and 60.2 and threw just 1 TD with 9 picks. That is not going to scare experienced playoff teams. RB Thomas is their top guy but he had only 3 100 yard games in the last half of the season. He is 31 and they hope it is not an indication that he is showing his age.

The Jets are going to have to be able to throw better than that to win.

The Jet D ranked 1st in scoring D, passing D and yards. They are 8th against the run. They have been playing very well under Coach Ryan. However, they have not beaten an O like they will against the Chargers.

Chargers

QB Rivers has had an outstanding season. He has a passer rating of 104. The running game is ranked 31st which caused Rivers to throw a lot. The passing game is ranked 5th. He has a solid group of receivers WRs Jackson and Floyd and TE Gates. The running game has Tomlinson but he is a shadow of what he was a few years ago. Neither he nor RB Sproles has gotten the running going. The Chargers used the franchise tag on Sproles. That was a mistake because he will never be able to be a starting RB. The O line came together after recovering from early season injuries. It still can not run block.

The Charger D is middle of the road in terms of yards but ranks 11th in scoring D. NT Scott is their 3rd guy in that spot but has come on nicely. The loss of All Pro NT Williams has reduced the ability to stop the run and the team ranks 20th in that department. They are 11th against the pass and have a pair of pro bowl LB in Merriman and Phillips. They have not played up to their rep this season. The D backfield is led by CB Cromartie. The D can play at a very high level but is inconsistent.

Given all that, the Chargers should be able to score on the Jets through the air. I am not sure that QB Sanchez can keep up with Rivers. The Chargers win.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

26-7.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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What to look for in the Saturday Divisional round games.

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Cards @ Saints

Cards QB Warner had just another day at the office. Against one of the most improved Ds in the league he went 29-33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs without a pick. The Pack had no answer for Warner. They blitzed him and he picked man to man coverage apart. They rushed 3 and kept 8 in coverage and he found holes in the zones. The O line protected Warner for the most part and sub WRs did well to make up for the loss of WR Bolden.

On D, the Cards and the Pack allowed the score board to look like the something out of Pinball Wizard. Neither D could put consistent pressure on the others QB. The Pack was so focused on Warner that they allowed RB Wells 6.5 yards per attempt. They were lucky that their O was putting up so many points or Wells would have had more than his 14 carries. If the Cards are going to have any chance to stage the upset the D is going to have to play like they did last year in the playoff run to the Super Bowl. The passing game of the Saints is equally lethal. The Cards are 23rd in pass D. The D may be missing DE Campbell, LBs Davis and Hayes. If they can’t go the D will be in even more trouble. Get your popcorn ready, this could be a wild offensive show.

Saints

The Saint’s D coordinator Williams isn’t sleeping too well this week. He has nightmares of Card WRs running wide open through his D backfield. The Saints D had played much better this year than last but it has had a tough time against high percentage passing attack. The good news is that CB Jenkins is hampered by a hamstring but is expected to play. The bad news is that Boldin is optimistic about playing as well. The Saints are ranked 26th in pass D. The key to the game for the Saints D will be their ability to pressure Warner better than the Pack did.

The Saints O is outstanding. They are 1st in both yards and points, 4th in passing and 6th in rushing. The team stumbled into the playoffs with 3 straight losses. The O is going to have to play like they did early in the season and not in the last 3 games. They scored only 44 points in those losses. The 23-10 loss to the Panthers could have been explained by the team resting a lot of the key players but not the losses to the Boys and the Bucs. The problem was not rushing. They ran for 124 against the Bucs. The problem was not turnovers or completion percentage. The Saints may get RB Thomas back. That will help them get a running game going again.

The problem was they could not get the ball into the endzone. The game will depend on the Saints finding their scoring punch again. If they are forced to kick field goals to score, they will lose.

Both teams have a questionable D. But the Saints are struggling on O and the Cards are hotter than the sun. I will go out on a limb and pick the Cards in a huge upset.

Ravens @ Colts

Ravens

The Birds did a great job pressuring the Pats D with the running game. The O scored 33 points but got a lot of help from the Pats. They won’t get that kind of help from the Colts.

The O is going to have to get more out of the passing game. They won 3 of their last 4 games but those wins were against the dregs of the NFL. Against a team that scores like the Colts, 4-10 for 34 yards and a pick will not get it done. QB Flacco has not stepped up to the challenge like most expected him to do. The O line isn’t the problem, accuracy and lack of game breaking receivers are the critical issues. The coaching staff doesn’t trust Flacco to win games for them and they shouldn’t. He has crumbled in big games like against the Steelers. The running game is solid but won’t score often enough to keep the Ravs in the game. They will have to depend on the passing game and it will let them down.

The weakest part of the Ravs D is the pass defense. They are 5th against the run and 8th against the pass. They depend on pressure on the QB to control the pass. They won’t be able to get enough pressure on Manning to stop the Colts passing game.

Colts

The Colt O is devastating but it is one dimensional. They are #2 in passing but dead last in the running game. They are going to have to run the ball a little to keep the chains moving. The one advantage they have is that they can play catchup really well. Manning is playing at a very high level. The team lost 2 games but in both cases Manning and company were pulled early.

The Colt D has played great in some games and lousy in others. They rank 24th against the run and will get a lot of practice stopping it against the Ravs. The key injuries on D are all probable. That should help as the D has suffered a lot of injuries during the season. The rest the wounded got will help them.

The key to stopping the running game has been S Sanders but he is on IR again. The Colts’ D will struggle stopping the run but will get the win due to their O.

Saturday I will discuss the Sunday games.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over.  Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/.  Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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What did we learn from the Wild Card Round?

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If you go in to the playoffs cold, you may be in trouble–sometimes.

Bengals—UCH!!! The play of QB Palmer raises serious questions about his future. He was 18-36 for just 146 yards and 1 TD with 1 pick. The WRs did not help him. WR Edwards dropped a TD that would have made a real difference in the flow of the game. But Palmer missed open WRs regularly in short as well as deep throws. That can not happen at this level. The Jets put some pressure on him but not enough to justify the bad misses.

The running game went well enough and the D was OK. However, the D did not get enough pressure on the rookie QB Sanchez. I predicted that the Bengals would not go far but I did think they would beat the Jets.

Eagles—UCH2!!! The Eagles are going to have to fix their O to become competitive. They have to be able and willing to run the ball some to be effective. In both games against the Boys they failed to hold the ball to give the D rest. There were way too many 3 and outs. Until they can run the ball, they will not advance in the playoffs.

Pats There will need to be some major improvements in the Pats D to get this team past the first round of the playoffs. The team has lost too much of the experience that allowed the team to use the unusual Ds that helped cover up its weak pass coverage.

There are problems on the O as well. QB Brady does not look like the same guy since the injury that took him out of the 08 season. The O line has not protected him as well as it needs to. Belichick is going to have to make some changes. Part of the problem is that the recent drafts have not been as good as those in previous years.

Packers The Pack D let them down. However, given the fact that this is their first year in the 3-4 and they have some injured stars that will come back next season, they should be OK. The problem they had against the Cards was the lack of pressure on Warner.

I will discuss the winners on Friday as part of the Division round preview.

Around the NFL:

Seahawks The Hawks have a new coach. Pete Carroll had a lot of problems at USC. He decided to get while the getting was good. The NCAA is about to drop the hammer on USC for a variety of violations of the rules. While in the NFL he was a good coach but not anything great. Time will tell if the Hawks have made the right move. He will be given the power to do whatever he wants. Seahawk fans just hope he wants the right guys.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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What to look for in week 16.

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Chargers 42 Titans 17

The only question on the minds of the Chargers is did they peek too soon. They have been on a hot streak for weeks. With the history of failure in the playoffs, Coach Turner needs to get to the AFC Championship game with this group this year. The team is getting older and the window to a title is closing.

Ravens @ Steelers

The Birds have what the Steelers want—a spot in the playoffs. The Ravens have a 1 game advantage on Pit and won’t give it up easily. The Raven O has been inconsistent and must be balanced to succeed. They have won 2 in a row.

The Steelers have lost 5 of their last 6 winning a surprising victory against the Pack last week. The likelihood is that was an aberration rather than a turn around for the team. The Ravens should win even on the road.

Jaguars @ Patriots

The Jags are playing well but the Pats need the win to stay on top of the AFC East. The Pats’ D is not playing well but the Jags’ O is very inconsistent. If the Jags’ O is hot, they can beat almost anyone. But the Pats should win a close game.

Broncos @ Eagles

This might be the best game of the weekend. The Broncos are holding on by a single strand of a spider’s web to the last AFC wildcard. After an outstanding effort beating the Giants, the Broncos have lost 2 in a row including a disastrous loss last week to the Raiders.

The Eagles are on top of the NFC East by 1 game over the Cowboys. If the Boys lose they will not make the playoffs. The Eagles have clinched at least a wild card spot and should win.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Happy Thanksgiving—The NFL Provides the Turkeys

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Happy Thanksgiving to all.

What we learned from last week.

QB Vince Young has turned the corner—Not yet.

Looking at the 4 straight wins of the Titans, many would assume that Young is now an NFL quality QB. Young has given the O a shot in the butt however it is more from his ability or his threat to run than from his passing. Against the Texans he had 116 yards passing.

He has improved his mechanics. His footwork is much better. He is planting his feet before he throws and is not throwing as often off his back foot. That has improved his accuracy. He has been over 50% in every game and over 60% completions in two.

Unless he continues to improve his passing, defenses will adjust to the Young led O and stop this version of the team as well.

The Browns find their O but have lost their D—Not yet.

You and I could move the ball against the Lions even if you were having a bad day. The O of the Browns Sunday means nothing. However, we did see indications that QB Quinn can throw deep but he must work on accuracy.

The Bengals will play up to their competition or down to the Raiders.

This is a team that is just starting to learn how to win again after being the joke of the NFL. It will take them a couple of years to get used to putting their foot on the throat of a weak opponent and winning the game.

The Turkeys served up by the NFL

GB @ DT – UCH! Forget the tradition. Detroit won’t be a competitive team any time soon. Put some team in that won’t make us lose our dinner.

OK @ DA Couldn’t the NFL have found a more accomplished team to match against the Boys than the Al Davises?

NYG @ DV The Broncos are hanging on for dear life and the Giants D will force them further down into the muck. Giants win even without a running game.

Indy @ HO This is the last chance for the Texans to prove they are better than a 500 team. To do that they have to beat the Colts. They are not better than a 500 team. They will lose and end up with a new coach next season.

PT @ BA This is the battle of reserves because these teams are really beaten up. The Steelers called me early this week asking if I would play backup QB because Roethlisberger was banged up last week and Batch was out with a bad wrist. They also could be missing S Polamalu and G Kemoeatu.

The Ravens will also be struggling with injuries to C Birk, LB Lewis and S Reed. Look for the Steelers to win IF big Ben plays.

Game of the Week—NE @ NO The Saints get the first real test of the season. The key will be how well a bad Pat D backfield deals with the passing of Brees. The Saints should win but this is the type of game that the Pats seem to steal.

Stinker of the Week—SE @ STL Ram QB Bulger is hurt and the O line is not good enough to create running lanes against air. Seattle is no gift to football fans.

Please take a moment this holiday to think about those that are on the other side of world risking their lives to make us safe. May the men and women of our military stay safe.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Around the NFL for Week 8

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This week is the half way mark in the season. Tuesday we will look at what the playoffs look like as well as the second half. But this week there are a couple of key games to watch.

DV @ BA

The second half of the Bronco schedule is a lot harder than the first half. They play the Steelers next along with the Giants, the Colts and the Eagles. Sunday we will see if the Bronco O is a competitor for the Super Bowl or just a pretender. Their O line has not faced a D like the Ravens even if the Ravs are not playing as well as they have in the past.

The Bronco D has played well against some of the weakest offenses in the history of the NFL. We will see how they look against a balanced Raven O. QB Flacco is playing very well and will challenge a questionable Bronco defensive backfield.

The Ravens have to tighten up the D. The pass coverage has been far below what it was in previous years. This season they replaced both CBs and Foxworth and Washington have not produced like McAlister and Rolle have in recent years. As a result, the D is giving up more passing yards and forced to blitz more.

The Ravens need the win much more than Denver and win the game.

SF @ IN

The 49ers have played well and are 3-3 going into Indy. Smith is going to start at QB which has been the weakness of the team. RB Gore is healthy and the Colts have trouble stopping the run. S Sanders is back for the Colts and that will help against Gore.

The 49er D has been very strong but has not faced an O like Manning and Co. The SF O and the Colt D are a standoff. It will be the Colt O that gives Indy the win.

MN @ GB

The return of Farve is all the media is talking about. But those that have watched Viking games realize that Favre is the icing not the cake itself. RB Peterson is the key player on the O for the Vikes. The Pack D has played well but has gotten most of their numbers against weak teams like the Browns and the Lions.

However, the key will be the Viking D against a very potent O of the Pack. The Packers have suffered injuries on the O line and the Viking pass rush will be the difference. If the Vikes can put enough heat on Pack QB Rodgers, the Vikes will win in a close game.

The Vikes won at home and should win again in Favre’s return.

AT @ NO

The Monday night game should be a very good one. The Falcons come in 2 games behind the Saints at 4-2. They really need to win to get within striking distance of the division leader. The Falcon O has scored 21 points in each of the last 2 games. That won’t be nearly enough against the NFL’s top offense. They will need to play the best game defensively of the season and still score 35 to have a chance to win.

The Saints D has played way above expectation. It has been helped by the pressure that the O puts on the opposition. Very often the D can just worry about rushing the passer because the Saints are so far ahead of the opponent. The D has not faced a team that could match them score for score as the Falcons can on a good day.

But their visit to the Big Easy will be anything but and the Saints win comfortably.

QB changes around the league

The Titans will start Young to see what he can do. At 0-6, its about time. I will have some additional suggestions for them next week.

Despite cries of protest and the most abysmal lack of offense in years, the Browns will continue to start Anderson. He has a passer rating of 40.6. If a QB goes 0-1 without an interception, the rating is 39.6. He is completing just 43.8 % of his throws. Quinn has a pr of 62.9 and a 60.8 completion rate. Give him a chance.

The 49ers have replaced QB Hill with former 1st overall pick Smith. Hill had a qb rating of 79.6 but Smith in very limited action has a 118.6. I don’t believe that Smith is that much better than Hill and in more extensive action will prove it. We will see how he does against an only fair D backfield of the Colts.

Raider fans have to be wondering what the D could do if Davis had not cut the vet QB Garcia. Russell has a rating of 47.2. The only QB with any experience on the team is Gradkowski who has proven beyond a doubt he isn’t an NFL qb. Like the Browns, the Raiders will have a very long season.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Tuesday Morning QB for 10/06/09

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TN @ JK The Titans are in serious trouble. Just like the rest of those that watch and are fool enough to try to prognosticate NFL games, I thought the Titans would come around. They have had a ton of injuries on D and on the O line but that is no excuse. They are bad and there are no answers on the bench (see my column on Will Vince Young ever become an NFL QB?). The Titans are out of the playoffs for the first time in a while.

Jacksonville had their game blacked out. They are really struggling to get their attendance up. The only hope to keep the team in place beside a winning streak which won’t happen is to play some games in Orlando. They won’t do that and will end up moving. The 7 of you that have the NFL Network can see Jacksonville games after midnight on that channel.

BA @ NE The Pats took the one path to beat the Ravens that I have seen—Jump ahead and make them a pass first team. The 14 point 2nd quarter by the Pats put the Ravens behind and they gave up on the run. That was not wise because Rice averaged 9.4 yards per attempt but got only 11 carries. The loss pulled the Ravs even with the Bengals who they play next week. The Pats were able to pull even with the Jets in the loss column with their fall to the Saints. I still believe that the Pats are the class of the AFC East.

NJ @ NO The Saints untold story is their D. They stopped the Jet O cold and held them to 10 points. The O has carried the Saints for years but now under former HC Williams they are playing very well on D. Look for them to make the NFC South their personal playground. The Jets will be fine and should make the playoffs as a wild card behind the Pats. They are a good team but Sanchez has to have some time to become a NFL QB.

DA @ DV The luck continued but so did an above average effort by the D. The Bronco D has played above their heads and has contributed the most to their 4-0 start. Dallas is in trouble. Romo has yet to prove he can make it happen in tough spots. The playoffs are going to be tough for the Boys that are now in effect 2.5 games behind the Giants because they are 2 games back in the loss column and lose the tiebreaker. The running game is struggling because the passing game is not as effective as it should be. The O line is a problem but so are the backs. Neither Barber nor Choice got 4 yards a carry. That is the standard for an average running game.

SD @ PT The Steelers got another win by showing their grit. They held off the Chargers on a 2nd half rally that netted 28 points. The Steelers scored 10 in the 4th to win the game. Mendenhall got out of the dog house just in time to run for 165 yards and 2 TDs. He was the difference between this win and last weeks lost to the Bengals. The Steelers are now 2-2 but 1.5 games behind the Bengals. They should still get to the playoffs but will it be as the Division champ or a wild card. The wild card route is a tough road to get to the Super Bowl.

GB @ MN The Pack was able to keep Peterson under control and allowed him only 2.2 ypa. But by focusing on the running game, Favre went to work. He threw for 3 TDs and 271 yards. The Pack gave up on the running game too soon. Grant was averaging 4.6 per carry but got only 11 attempts. The Vikes are on their way to the 1st seed in the playoffs and that should carry them to the NFC Championship game.

TB @ WA The Redskins saved Coach Zorn from getting fired or worse. They stumbled to a 16-13 win over the totally inept Bucs. This was the stinker game of the week and lived up to that title. Between Johnson (TB) and Campbell (WA) there was only 276 yards of passing! If you were thinking that the Ds played really well, you would be wrong. Neither guy could hit the water from a sinking boat in the middle of the Atlantic.

CN @ CL Check out my full report on NFLDraftDog.com tomorrow.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Around the NFL for 10/03/09

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football

Top games of the week

GB @ MIN The battle of the QBs should be more than interesting. The Vikes come in undefeated getting a breathtaking pass for a win last week. Favre is playing well but he has to do just a little with the great running game of Peterson and Taylor. Taylor is going to have to increase his 2.4 per attempt average to get the ball much. Rogers is playing great and the D has come around using the 3-4 faster than expected. The Vikes win in a close game.

BA @ NE The Ravens may be the best team in the league. QB Joe Flacco has a qb rating of over 100 and the combination of rbs have moved the chains. The goal line back McGahee has scored 5 TDs in just 3 games and is making his fantasy owners very happy. The Pats are OK on O but their D has deteriorated badly from age and neglect. The Ravens win and it might not be close.

NJ @ NO The Jets get exposed as a good but not great team. The Saints have always mistreated scoreboards around the league with one of the most potent Os in recent memory. The D has been a problem but is playing much better. Ex-Jet MLB Vilma has been looking forward to this game for a long time. He has stabilized the D getting everyone in the right spot. The D makes Jets rookie QB Sanchez look like a rookie and the Saints win.

SD @ PT This game is a must win for the Steelers. They will know if the Ravens win their game against the Pats before the kickoff. At 1-2 the Steelers can not afford another early loss in the conference. The Chargers should get LT back this week at least for part time duty. They have to generate a rushing game to go with QB Rivers passing O. The blame for a lack of running is shared by the backs and the O line that has not been getting the push they need. Pitt is tough to run the ball against and win the game in a low scoring squeaker.

DA @ DV Paul Brown once said “I’d rather be lucky than good. Good teams lose.” No team has been as lucky as Denver. Their D is much less than suspect and their O is depending on QB Orton because the running game has been invisible. Dallas is better than it has played and needs to show us something by beating a very over rated Bronco team. Dallas wins.

Stinker of the week – As usual, there are a lot of candidates for this “award” in the week 4 schedule. CN @ CL will make the battle of Little Big Horn look close. DT @ CH will insure the Lion winning streak ends at 1. OK @ HO who cares?

But there is one game that the league should have to pay the fans to watch—TB @ WA When you lose to a team that has not won a game in over a year, you deserve to be ranked among the rankest in the league. TB isn’t much better. I feel sorry for the announcers in this debacle. It will be a very long afternoon with the ineptness broken only by plays that will show up soon in Football Follies.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Almost Pro–Chapter 2 Copyright by Bill Smith All rights reserved

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Bob didn’t get the call from QB Sherman in the week before practices were scheduled. The first five practices of the team by rule were in no pads. Bob used the week to put in his abridged play book. Wheels didn’t appreciate the change in procedure.

“This isn’t the way we practice. I run the offense.”

“This is the way we are going to practice from now on.”

“Well, I might decide not to play at all under those circumstances.”

“Wheels, that’s fine. I have major problems with your mechanics anyway.”

“What’s wrong with my mechanics?”

“Your footwork is abysmal, your delivery point is all over the place, you have no touch on your throws, you don’t read the progression. When your primary target is covered, you run. And despite your athleticism, you have trouble shuffling within the pocket to avoid the rush. You trust your strong arm way too much and tend to throw into double coverage. Other than that, you might be the next Joe Montana.”

“You don’t want me to play quarterback because I’m black. You’re a racist!”

“I don’t care if my quarterback is sky blue pink with yellow spots. If he can make plays and take coaching, he will do. The point is you can become a excellent quarterback only if you are willing to do the hard work to develop.” Wheels threw the ball to the ground and walked off.

“Willis, you’re up.”

The three black offensive linemen ran up to Bob.

“If Wheels isn’t the quarterback, we aren’t going to play. What do you think about that?” The smirk on the face of speaker was unmistakable. Bob turned to the reserves standing on the sidelines.

“56, 67,74 you’re up.” Bob turned back to his former charges. “If you gentlemen can tackle, I suggest you go see Mark. If not, then based on the tapes I saw of the Roughnecks against the Arrows, our cross town rival can use all the help it can get.” With that he turned and began to call plays in the offensive huddle. The three objectors just stood there looking at the coach.

“If you gentlemen don’t move, you are liable to get run over. Oh, I forgot. Having seen your performance on last year’s tape, you gave a lot of experience at getting run over. MOVE!” Like a small gaggle of geese, they waddled across the field toward the defense teams workout.

Suddenly the offense began to move. Willis didn’t have half the arm that Wheels did but he was accurate and threw on time to the right receiver. Sherman was playing the slot receiver and was working the middle of the field. He was catching the ball and moving the chains. Then Jack pulled Sherman and replaced him with Jet’s brother Rahim.

“Jack, I want to see more of Sherman.”

“He is not the starter. Rahim is the starter opposite Jet.”

“As long as I am the OC, I will decide who is the starter.”

“Who do you think Dad will back, you or me?”

“Well, let me make this as clear as I can. Until he fires me, I will decide who starts. If you can’t accept that, tell your Dad to fire me or try to coach defense.”

When the offense and defense got together, the change was obvious. Practices that Bob had seen on tape were controlled by the defense. The offense had sputtered and lost every practice on tape. Now the combination of Sherman and Willis along with a six-six tight end Ron Martin were moving the ball easily. Because the short and medium passing game was working, play action opened up the running game. Davis, the tailback, was ripping off runs of ten to fifteen yards regularly. Wheels was playing cornerback and got beat regularly by the new offense. His frustration was obvious.

Ace came down half way through the scrimmage.

“Bob, this isn’t our offense!” Before Bob could answer, Mark joined the conversation.

“No, it isn’t our offense. This one actually moves the ball!”

“But we’re known for our power I.”

“No, from what I have seen on the tape you were known for a June Taylor Dancers offense—one, two, three kick. You can’t run the ball if there are twenty defenders in the box. This offense is much simpler and moves the ball effectively.”

“Well, I don’t know.”

“Based on the abilities of the team, this is the only offense that is going to work.”

“I don’t know. We will have to see.”

“Mark, I appreciate your support.”

“I did it out of self-interest. If we play Ace’s offense, I’m going to be playing a lot more defense.”

Bob looked at the tape of the first practice of the new offense. There were a few adjustments he wanted to make but the two hour tape was only a half dozen donut experience. Sherman continued to catch everything and 121—Marcus Jones continued to disrupt the offense to some degree but was not nearly as effective has he had been at the tryout. Two linemen from the tryout were looking good. Sherm Walker, a guard with college experience from Northern Indiana was working well at left guard and TJ Schaeffer was looking like a real candidate at left tackle. The right tackle was still a problem.

“HARRIS!” The sudden volume of the coach stopped the play dead. “Son, come over here.” Bob put his arm around the shoulder of his lineman and spoke softly so that others could not hear.

“That run was to the right but you pulled the wrong way. Didn’t you notice that you had to dodge the tailback and the fullback coming the other direction?”

“Y…e…s” Bob could see that Harris’ run up the down escalator didn’t seem to set off any alarms for him.

“Are you having trouble remembering the play?”

“No, I don’t think so.”

“Well, the only conclusion I can come to is that you have trouble telling your right from your left. Would you like me to mark your shoes R and L to help you remember?”

“NO!”

“Then son, concentrate better in the huddle or that is exactly what I will do. Do we understand each other?”

“Yes, coach.” Harris walked slowly back the huddle with his head down.

“Defense, we are going to run the same play. And when you think of the Offensive Coordinator, smile.” When the defense stopped the play, Bob was not happy.

“Again!” Finally, after the third time the play was rerun, it scored a touchdown.

“Good!”

With the left side of the line and the passing game solidified, running the ball would be a real possibility. The practice went well until Bob tried to take a look at the two minute drill. When the defense was blitzing Willis fell apart. A few guys on offense that were fans of Wheels began bickering with the formerly backup quarterback. Bob pulled him aside.

“Bill, you need to take a breath and then take control of the huddle. When you are the quarterback, you have to win the confidence of your team. When they look in your eyes they can tell if you believe you can do it or not. You can’t fool them. If they see you don’t believe you can score, they won’t believe it either.

“Now go back in there and get the job done. You can do it. I am certain of it.”

On the next snap, the safety bit on a play action fake to the tailback and Willis threw a perfect pass to the tight end for a touchdown.

Chapter 2 Practice makes less than perfect

The week of no pad practice went quickly. That Saturday would be the first full pad practice. Bob held a meeting with the offense before the practice.

“Gentlemen, the only thing I want to say is that championships are won before the kickoff of the first game. It is what we do here now and for the next month of preseason practice that will determine more of what will happen this year than anything else. If we’re truly ready we’ll win. If not, we’ll lose. I have no intention of suffering through a losing season. I know that those of you that were on the team last year have paid the price during games but without a good preseason, you were doomed to the same result.

“Playing the game should be fun. When things are going great, the game is fun. The problem is that the only way things will go great during the game is by putting in the very hard work in practice to make things easier in the game. I can promise you all one thing. Practice is going to be four times harder than the game. You are all going to hate me from today until the kickoff of our first game. Then and only then will you realize that we had to do what we did during practice to make the game fun.

“One thing you are going to hate is that fact that we are going to run and run and run some more. You will be in the best condition of your lives or be dead from cardiac arrest. Based on what the offense did last year, either alternative would be an improvement.

“My hope is you will survive, but that is up to you. After the preseason you will believe the saying ‘that which does not kill us only makes us stronger.’ I hope we will all be stronger.”

“That’s easy for you to say, we are in much better shape than you are! Who are you to be making us run that much while you stand there and time us?” The speaker was the starting right guard Salam Samir.

“I am the coach and you are the players.”

“Well, when Jack was offensive coordinator after Coach Barnsnider left, we never had to run that much!”

“And you think you are in football shape now, right?”

“Yea, we are.”

“I’ll make you a bet. If you can do more sit ups than I can, you will only have to run every other practice. If not, then you do what I tell you.”

“You’re on coach.” The disdain in his voice was obvious. The team began to count as both began their sit-up grudge match to the death. Samir got up to fifty-six but could not do any more. Bob did ten more then led the team out to practice. Bob was in serious pain but knew that he could never let the team see him sweat or know he was in pain. If they smelled Icy-Hot on him, they would eat him alive. But the coach was not the only one that was having a difficult practice.

Samir struggled through the offense only portion of the practice and was not able to finish the scrimmage.

The coaches meeting that night was argumentative. Ace sat behind his desk. Something that Bob had not noticed when he first met Ace was that while Ace’s chair was unusually high, the office chairs surrounding the desk were lower than normal.

“Gentlemen, I am fairly happy with the defense but not so much with the offense. Bob, the offense is way too simple. The opponent will know all six of our plays and be ready for them. I want to go back to our original play book and install it tomorrow night.”

“Dad, that is what I have been trying to convince Bob about. We need to be practicing the plays that the team knows not these new plays that nobody ever saw before.”

“Ace, this team scored 24 points in the 4 games last year after Barnsnider left. You were never even able to kick an extra point! The team has one of the best running backs I have seen at this level and yet he averaged 1.5 yards per carry. The guards can’t pull and the tackles can’t seal the edges. The passing game was non-existent because your QB couldn’t hit water if he was throwing out of a boat and last year’s wideouts couldn’t catch pneumonia if they were naked on the Circle in the middle of a December sleet storm. Other than that, I think we are in great shape. The team will be far better if they can effectively execute a couple of dozen plays than try to teach them a couple of hundred plays that they will never get down cold because there just isn’t enough time to practice them all.”

Tuesday morning when Bob woke up he felt like he died and rigor mortis had set in. His stomach muscles were so sore he could hardly walk. Every time he sat down, he got a shot of pain that felt like 9 mm bullet drilling its way into his stomach muscles. As he was standing at the mirror shaving he noticed that he was leaning slightly to the right. Beth Martin, his secretary, commented on the lean when he came to work.

“Did you get the license number of the truck that hit you?”

“I would laugh but it would hurt too much.”

“You are leaning to the right. Are you OK?”

“Of course I am leaning to the right. It would be completely against my political sensibilities to lean to the left.” With that, he disappeared into his office.

At lunch, he got time to check out the video of the offense from the last practice. There was not much offense, or defense for that matter. The video camera was totally focused on a single member of the cheerleader practice on the sideline. He picked up the phone to call Mark.

“Mark, Bob here. Can you explain why yesterday’s offensive practice tape is all about the cheer leaders?” Mark burst into a deep laugh that sounded like it came from the depths of his 6-5 frame. It took a couple of minutes for Mark’s laughter to subside enough to talk.

“Was the cheerleader a short girl with a ponytail?”

“Yea, how did you know?”

“Tyrone is crazy about Kisha, the cheerleader, but she won’t pay any attention to him because she is going with Wheels. If you want to get a tape of the practice while the girls are working out, you will have to change cameramen.”

“Great.”

Mark lost control of his laughter again. He choked out the word “Goodbye.” Bob got on the intercom.

“Beth, can you come in here a second please?”

“Can’t you come out here?”

“Not without significant pain.” She opened the door smiling broadly.

“You’re enjoying my suffering, aren’t you?”

“No, it’s just the funny comments you make.”

“I could be dying of a heart attack and you would be laughing so hard you wouldn’t be able to call 911. Anyway, would your younger brother like to make some money this fall?”

“He is always looking for something to earn money. What did you have in mind?”

“I need somebody to tape our practices and games that won’t spend all his time trying to use the camera to look up the skirts of the cheerleaders.”

“I’ll call him and find out.”

“Just have him meet me here at 3:30.”

That afternoon, Bob’s pain subsided when he answered a cell phone call.”

“Coach May?”

“Yes, how can I help you?”

“This is Bobby Sherman. I heard you needed a QB.”

“We sure do.”

“Well, I might be willing to play if my…”

“Bobby, I won’t mislead you. Your brother is going to make the team regardless of whether you play or not. But I would love to have you play for us.”

“I appreciate your honesty but you haven’t even seen me play.”

“I saw you play Florida State. Your team was totally outclassed athletically but you were outstanding.”

“We lost that game.”

“Not because of your play. Bring your brother to practice so we can talk.”

“I think I will. Thanks, Coach.”

“Thank you.”

That afternoon, Bobby showed up. Mark and Tom took over practice while Bob talked to his potential recruit.

“What kink of offense do you run?”

“Bobby, I believe in running whatever offense the team has the skill to execute. Right now, I’ve got a running back and a pretty good full back, so we will run the ball. If I had you, we could put in a west coast system. I’m not going to kid you, the O-line is pretty offensive. But I have seen you run a short passing game with a bad line. You have a quick enough release that we could make that work. So what do you think?”

“I’ve always wanted to play with Mike. I will give it a try.”

Bobby took the field and in an instant, there was an offense. He completed 12 passes in a row with no more than a 2.5 second release time. When the team scrimmaged, the offense ran and passed up and down the field. Bob walked over to Tom.

“How do you like the QB I found for you?”

“WOW! He is really good. He has a rocket arm but throws with great touch. Thanks.”

“Just trying to help.”

Mike Sherman was open on every play. On the forth play of the first series Mike made a double move on the corner and left him standing wondering what state he was in. Bobby threw the pass just as he was coming out of his break on the out and up move for a TD. Mark then tried to double cover him without any success. On a second a 1, Mike got Wheels playing the corner and the safety to run into each other giving Mike and the O an easy catch and touchdown. The defensive concern about the passing game opened up the running game. Ted Davis was an excellent back with a combination of size and speed that made him a weapon. With the D looking to stop the pass, Davis was tearing up the defense. The second snap of the third series, a pass action run broke wide open around the left end and Davis was gone for a 65 yard TD. The forth series was just as successful. A play action fake to Davis sucked the SAM linebacker in and Bobby hit the TE Martin for a 72 yard TD.

The other WR was a problem. On a play that the D managed to cover Mike with 3 dbs, Jet was wide open 30 yards down field. Bobby hit him with a perfect pass right in the hands. Jet touched it no less than 3 times but couldn’t manage to bring it in and it fell incomplete. In his awkward attempt to catch the ball he had jumped unnecessarily, turned around and stumbled to the ground. Bob looked back at Bobby who was shaking his head in disgust.

“Jet, come here son.” Bob expected him to walk slowly with his head hung so low that it nearly touched his knee pads. Instead, Jet acted like he had caught the ball and scored. Bob put his arm around the shoulder pads of the unaffected receiver. “Jet, you have to catch that type of pass. That could mean the difference between a win and a loss.”

“Coach, that ball was over my head and behind me. No body could have caught that ball.”

“Jet, the ball was right in your hands and hit you in stride. You didn’t have to jump, or turn around. Just catch the ball and score.”

“Coach, I did…”

“Jet, I want you and Rahim to stick around after practice to work on patterns and catching the ball.”

“Coach, we are the starters. We don’t…”

“You were the starters last year. Don’t bet on that again unless you both start catching the ball and running better patterns. See you both after practice.”

“Coach, we are the fastest receivers in the league. You can’t bench us!”

“Jet, let me explain something to you. I don’t care if you can run the 40 in 1.2 seconds. If you can’t catch the damned ball, it does the team no good. I want both of you to stay after practice. Do you understand?” Jet didn’t say anything. He went back into the huddle in silence. This time, he did look like a missed a catch.

Mark decided to blitz Bobby to see if that would stop the march of the offense. The O line looked like a Keystone Cops chase scene but Bobby calmly stepped up and found the open receiver. The Blitz opened up Mike to 1 on 1 coverage and produced 2 more long TDs. The O beat the defense 42-0. After practice, both coordinators called their charges in for a short comment.

“Gentlemen, that was the best I have ever seen this O play. I have to tell you that. You all contributed and should feel really good about the practice and our chances this year. You beat a really good defense out there and scoring TDs on all 7 possessions was outstanding. Your performance earned you a day off from laps after practice. I want to see the players that I spoke to. The rest of you have a good day off tomorrow and enjoy the moment.”

Bobby came up to Bob after the team broke for the showers.

“That was fun, Coach. Thanks.”

“Bobby, you were magic. That is the best this group has ever looked. We haven’t scored 7 touchdowns in 4 practices. Thank you. Does this mean you will stay with the team?”

“Yea, but I can’t play away games because I am working the night shift on weekends.”

“If I find you a weekday job, would you be interested?”

“Sure.”

“Well let me see what I can do. I’ll give you a call.”

Jack came over to Bob with a gate that was similar to John Wayne walking to a showdown. It was made more humorous because Jack was such a little skinny twerp.

“If the receivers need work, I will tell them. It’s none of your business.”

“Listen, junior, I am not going to waste the talent of our new QBs on wideouts that couldn’t hold onto the ball if you handed it to them. Now stick around and you might learn something about coaching the position.” Jack stomped off in search of his daddy to cry about what Bob had said.

Willis began to throw passes to the two former starters. Tom worked with the QB and Bob worked with the receivers. Rahim rounded off an out pattern and then completed the daily double by dropping a pass right in his hands. He trotted back to the huddle like nothing had happened.

“Rahim, you have to make a 90 degree cut to bet open on an out pattern. Bananas are for topping cereal. Show me how you hold your hands catching a pass.” Bob picked up a ball and tossed it to Rahim underhand. He tried to catch it with his hands up with the thumbs out. But like everything else that came his way, he fumbled with it for a second before it drifted to the ground. “That is part of the problem. No wonder you try to jump when a pass is right at the numbers. You have to catch it this way.” Bob held his hands with the thumbs in almost touching. “When you hold your hands this way, you don’t have to leave your feet to catch a pass even if it is over your head.”

Jet was having no more luck than his brother. A perfect pass hit Jet’s stone hands, bounced off his chest, then off his helmet and then to the ground. Jet spun around trying to follow the ball. He looked like an overweight ballerina. Tom burst out laughing. Bob looked at him and Tom managed to choke down the outburst.

“Again.” This time the ball bounced off his hands and then off his right knee. He kicked at it in frustration but missed the ball with his foot just like he had with his hands. “Not much of a soccer player either.” Bob’s comment was under his breath so that it could not be heard by others. “Again.”

The three players continued to practice until well after 9. Tom had to spell Willis because the backup QB’s arm had turned to water from all the passes. The two wideouts were doubled over with their hands on their waists and gulping for air.

The practice did some good. The two were running more crisp routes and catching the ball a little more regularly.

The next day Bob called a couple of his customers and found Bobby a job in a sports shoe distributor as an outside sales person.

“How about that as a job? You should make double or triple the money you make now.”

“Thanks, Coach. That is great. See you at practice tomorrow.”

Bob called an old friend of his.

“Wally, how are you doing my friend?”

“Ok. Bob, good to hear from you. What’s up?”

“I need your expertise. I’m coaching in Indy for the Roughnecks. I have a talented QB and runner but my line couldn’t block their way out of a pillow fight.”

“That bad?”

“Wally, it is worse. What are you doing this season?”

“Not much. Since you left, it was no fun to coach. I am just drinkin’ beer and watching TV.”

“Why don’t you and your lovely wife Sally come to Indy. You could stay with me.”

“For how long?”

“As nasty as you are, it should only take you the preseason to straighten out this group of blockheads.”

“When is your next practice?”

“Tomorrow at 4.”

“We’ll be there. Sally is probably going to want to clean your house. Knowing you, that should keep her busy for at least a month.”

“Maybe less. I have only been here for a month. It hasn’t gotten too bad.”

“I’ll stop by your office on Illinois. We can go together.”

“See you then.”

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