#1 Alabama

This is the year that Bama needs to win it all. They have 14 senior player that will be given serious consideration in the 2010 NFL draft 9 of whom should be drafted. They have as always some nice underclass talent but with that many guys leaving, a number of the key juniors will likely declare for the draft as well. They can not replace that many front line guys without taking a step back next season. This is their best chance to win the big prize.

Bama O

Bama can throw the ball but make no mistake about it—They need to run the ball to win. RB Ingram (So.) won the Heisman trophy and is outstanding. He has great vision and a very quick first step. He has decent speed and very seldom goes down at first contact. He is patent and uses blocks as well as any back in college. Those qualities are not developed. You either have them or you don’t. He is a good receiver and gets to the edge on screens often. He has 30 catches this year for an average of 10.2 yards which is a lot higher than most RBs.

QB McElroy has a passer rating of 142 but that is a little misleading. He has taken advantage of Ds that played 46 guys at the line of scrimmage to stop the run. He has thrown 17 TDs and has had just 4 picks. He throws a catchable ball with accuracy. He does not throw well under pressure and that could be a problem against Texas.

The Tide has good but not excellent receivers. Soph WRs Jones and Maze are the stars. Jones (6-4) is the big guy over the middle and has 42 catches and 4 TDs. Maze (5-10) is the speed guy with 30 catches for a 17 yard average and 2 TDs. TE Peek (3^rd round) is a combo end with the ability to catch and block for the run. He has 26 catches and 3 TDs.

The O line is outstanding. It is led by All American Johnson (2^nd) and Davis (6^th). The team run blocks as well as any O line in recent years. They pass block well but were recruited to block the run.

Bama D

The D that stopped Florida is led by 2 All Americans (AA)—Butkus winner LB McClain (Jr.) and S Arenas (2^nd). Arenas and SS Woodall (3^rd) give the Tide the best pair of safeties in college. McClain was suffering from stomach problems but he is fine now. DT Cody (top 20 1^st round) anchors the D line. He is the 4^th rated DT in the draft. He fights through double teams to create havoc in the O backfield.

The D stuffs the run and lets the back line make up for any mistakes covering receivers. Given the quality of the back line, that has worked well. But against Texas, they are going to have to be more concerned about getting pressure on the QB and stopping the pass.

Texas

Texas will go as far as AA QB McCoy (1^st) takes them. The team has depended more on his arm than on the run and the D put together.

Texas O

McCoy came back this year to win a championship. Texas was 18^th in passing but 55^th in rushing on O. McCoy has thrown for 3512 yards with 27 TDs and 12 picks. Because the running game has under produced, this year McCoy has taken more chances throwing the ball into coverage than he did last year. That accounted for more picks this year.

McCoy had more rushing attempts than leading RB Newton. Newton averaged 5 yards per carry on 102 attempts. AA second team WR Shipley (late 1 early 2) is by far the leading receiver with 106 catches and 11 TDs. The next highest is WR Williams (So.) with 38.

The O line is led by AA C Hall (4^th), OT Ulatoski (3^rd) and late round prospect G Tanner. The line pass blocks very well. They have not been as successful run blocking. This year the running game has not been up to usual Texas standards. When they have had a close game, they have struggled to close out the game by running.

Texas D

The Texas D may be the most under rated part of this game. The D held Oklahoma to 13, and T exas Tech to 24. They also saved the year for the Horns by keeping Nebraska to 12 points when the O struggled big time. The key to the team on D is the line. DT Houston (2^nd) is the key along with DEs Jones and Acho who are both juniors. Houston keeps at least 2 OL guys busy and that frees up the LBs to attack the ball. OB Kindle (1^st) is a force rushing the passer or stopping the run. He is also dangerous in pass coverage. His running mates Norton (late or FA) and Muckelroy (2^nd) are returning starters and are under appreciated.

The D backfield is good but not great. CB Beasley (FA) is the bell cow but all 4 starters returned this year.

Prediction

I expect a low scoring game. I don’t see either team exploding offensively. The over/under is 45 and the under is the best bet. The line is Bama by 4. I expect them to win but it may be closer than that.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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INDEPENDENCE BOWL Texas A&M 6-5 Georgia 7-5

This is the battle of the bad defenses. TAM’s D gave up 33 points per game. Georgia has already fired all of their D coaches and is giving up 26 points per game. The key to a win will be which O takes maximum advantage of the faltering D.

The Dogs have finished up wining 3 of their last 4 but have had a bad year overall. Their O depends on the ability to run the ball. The Georgia RBs Early and King keyed the upset of Georgia Tech gaining over 300 yards rushing between them. QB Cox has been up and down throwing 22 TDs but also 14 picks. He had only 76 yards passing against GT.

TAM QB Johnson is outstanding. He has thrown for over 3000 yards with 28 TDs and only 6 picks. WR Nwachukwu is the deep threat averaging 18 yards per catch and 6 TDs. The question is can the O line protect Johnson long enough to let Nwachukwu go long.

Georgia has had a slightly better season and should win in a shootout.

EagleBank BOWL UCLA 6-6 Temple 9-3

Temple coach Al Golden has the team in its first bowl game in 30 years. He is now a very hot coaching prospect for “real” football schools. The Owls ripped off 9 straight wins before losing to Ohio U in their last game. They depend on the ground game to move the chains. Freshman RB Pierce is the star. Despite missing a chunk of the year from a shoulder injury he gained 1308 yards and scored 15 TDs.

The Pac10 has struggled in the Bowls so far. UCLA is not a great representative but should win this one. They have been a very inconsistent team this year in part due to injuries. They have talent but too often make critical errors leading to defeats. They went 3-0 to open the year only to drop their next 5.

Their D is led by 3 All Americans S Moore, CB Verner and DT Price. The talent on D should be too much for the Owls and UCLA wins in a close one.

MPS SPORTS BOWL 15 Miami 9-3 25 Wisconsin 9-3

This is one of the more interesting matchups. It will match the Badger running game with RB star John Clay against an improving Hurricane D. The Badgers will have to put pressure on Miami QB Harris who has come a long way since the beginning of the season. He has become a threat but in the last couple of games has been bitten by the turnover bug. Miami is favored but I think Wisconsin grinds out a win by keeping Harris and company off the field.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL Bowling Green 7-5 Idaho 7-5

Idaho has to stop the passing game of Sheehan to Barnes. WR Barnes has been outstanding with 1551 yards in receiving with 16 TDs. Sheenhan has become a potential draft choice in his final year with the help of Barnes.

Idaho has lost 3 of the last 4. The Vandals depend on their O to offset an inconsistent D. QB Enderly has been solid with 2666 yards, 18 TDs and 9 picks. RB Woolridge has scored 16 TDs with an 5.8 yard average.

Look for BG to win the game.

HOLIDAY BOWL 20 Arizona 8-4 22 Nebraska 9-4

The Huskers were a questionable call by a zebra from the biggest upset in the storied history of the school against Texas. The Nebraska D held the Texas O in check most of the game. They won the Big 12 North for the first time since 06. They are second in scoring D allowing just 11.8 points per game.

The Huskers sputter on O depending on the Black Shirt D to keep the score low. The team is 84^th in the country in scoring. All American DT Suh should be a top 3 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Arizona was in the Rose Bowl picture until a last minute loss to Oregon on 11/21. Then the win over Arizona State and USC was a positive end to their regular season. Arizona’s O is 40^th in yards and is scoring nearly 30 a game. Both the passing of QB Foley and running of Antolin will be contained by the Husker D. Nebraska wins by more than the 1 point line.

SUN BOWL Oklahoma 7-5 21 Stanford 8-4

The Sooners have had a disastrous season after losing QB Bradford. Jones has filled in but has been erratic throwing 23 TDs and 13 picks. RBs Brown (4.1) and Murry (4.5) have not been able to replace the passing of Bradford. The Sooners are scoring 30 points per game. The Sooner D will have to try to slow down one of the best running games in the country in Stanford.

The Cardinal is 11^th in rushing. RB Gerhart is averaging 5.6 per attempt and has scored 26 TDs. QB Luck is a better runner (5.8) than passer but takes maximum advantage of the opponent’s focus against the run. He has thrown for 2575 yards and 13 TDs with just 4 picks. The O needs to score a lot because the D gives up points like the Congress passes out money.

Oklahoma should be better in bowl games but have lost 5 of their last 6. But they are 10 point favorites. Look for them to shut down the running game and make Luck throw. The Sooners will win but it could be closer than 10.

INSIGHT BOWL Minnesota 6-6 Iowa State 6-6

This game could be the least interesting of the bowl season. Neither of these teams lived up to what the experts thought they would do this year. The Gophers are 3 point favorites but don’t look for a lot of top level offense. ISU is 102^nd in scoring and the Gophers are 79^th. Take the under at 49. Both QBs throw about as many TDs as picks and neither running game is solid.

Chick-fil-A BOWL 11 Virginia Tech 9-3 Tennessee 7-5

The best part of this game might be the Chick-fil-A commercials. The Vols have won 5 of 6 games since giving Alabama all they wanted in their game losing 12-10. The Vol D is coached by long time NFL DC Monte Kiffin. He has gotten a lot more out of the D than anyone expected. The D is led by S Berry, the Thrope winner. The O depends on the passing of QB Crompton who has thrown for 2565 yards and 26 TDs but has 12 picks.

VTk has played well and depends mostly on their rushing attack. They are 15^th in the nation rushing and 32^nd in scoring. RB Williams has averaged 5.7 per attempt and has scored 19 TDs.

VTk is a 6 point favorite but this game will be closer than that. The Kiffin D should hold the score down but Virginia Tech wins.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Alabama and Texas will play for the mythical BcS championship.

Alabama looked great and Texas got VERY lucky to win its game against Nebraska. Texas tends to play down to the competition too often to be favored against Bama. Texas has been living on luck in several games and their luck runs out against the Tide.

Rose Bowl Ohio State and Oregon.

The Buckeyes are going to have to focus on their running game and stopping the run. Even though they practice against a running QB, the team has always had trouble stopping an offense based around that. Oregon has one of the best running games in college football. All Big 10+1 teams have trouble going west and Oregon has just the kind of team that will give the Buckeyes fits.

Sugar Bowl Florida and Cincinnati

This should be one of the most interesting games of the bowl season. The question is can the Cincy D handle Tebow and the Florida O? I think that TCU would be a better match up for the Gators but they will get Boise. The other question is who will be coaching the Bearcats. Coach Kelly is said to be high on the ND wish list. He will interview this week for that job.

This is a critical game for the Big East to prove that it belongs among the big boys. Florida will be a good test. If you can’t play Big Boy football, it will be obvious.

Fiesta Bowl TCU and Boise State

The Fiesta is going to be a good game but it is too bad that these two teams couldn’t have faced a BcS team. A win against a team like Florida would have given the non BcS teams and leagues a lot of cred. I think that TCU has too much on both sides of the ball for BS.

Orange Bowl Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Iowa got the invitation to Miami rather than Penn State because they won head to head. The Hawkeyes will have to find a way to jump out in front or risk having the Big 10 take another hit to the credibility of the league. Without their starting QB that will be tough. Based on the way things look now, GT wins this game.

We will look at the other bowls next week.

Other news:

WR Golden Tate and QB Jimmy Clausen declare for the NFL Draft. Evidently they don’t care to wait around to see who gets the ND job. That is a great move for Tate. Clausen has not advanced like everyone expected but still will be a prospect with a lot of potential.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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College

Pac10 Championship—sort of

Oregon beat Oregon State 37-33 for the league title and the Rose Bowl ticket. In the end, it was the running and passing of the Ducks that won the game. The Ducks will give Ohio State all they want.

SEC Championship We finally get to see #1 Florida against #2 Alabama. It should be a defensive struggle again this year like it was last season. However, Bama seems to have a little more explosiveness to their O than the Gators. The game will be determined by turnovers and will be low scoring and close. The Bama D is as good as the Florida D so the game will depend on the QB’s ability to move the ball on the opponent. Most experts think that Bama will win but I can’t go against Tebow. When the game is in the balance he always seems to find a way to win.

Big12 Championship

#3 Texas will have their way with a good but too young #22 Nebraska team in this game. The game will be the showcase for QB Colt McCoy and should elevate him to a Heisman award as much for his body of work as for this season. The Huskers are a year away from challenging for a B12 title.

#5 Cincinnati @ #15 Pitt

The Bearcats are playing for a BcS game and should win. Pitt looked very ordinary last week in a loss to West Virginia. I expect the Cats’ D to be too much for the talented but turnover prone Panthers.

USA Conference Championship

If you haven’t seen Houston QB Keenum, take a look at this game. He is fun to watch. The Houston O is a wide open passing game that will throw the ball all over the East Carolina D. Nobody is going to want to get paired with Houston in a bowl game.

NFL

Eagles @ Falcons

QB Vick makes his return to Atlanta but won’t be a factor. Both teams are chasing after a playoff spot. The loser will likely be out of the race. The Falcons play well at home but the Eagles should win.

Titans @ Colts

QB Young will have his winning streak ended with a thud but most likely it won’t be his fault. The Titan D has been playing better with Young at QB because he has been able to keep drives alive with his legs. The problems in the pass D of the Titans will be exploited by Manning. The Colts won’t blow them away because they tend to play down to competition but the Colts will win.

Cowboys @ Giants

Well, it’s December and time for the Boys to take their annual dive. Everything points to a Boys win but Romo doesn’t play well after Turkey day. The Boys need a win to keep up on the Eagles. I have to think that the Boys will find a way to lose rather than Giants winning the game.

Vikings @ Cards

IF QB Warner plays, this should be a good close game filled with offense. But I don’t think he will and the Vikes will win. QB Leinart couldn’t beat the Titans last week and folds under a good pass rush. The Vikes turn up the heat on D and win the game.

Ravens @ Packers

The Ravens have struggled in the last couple of weeks but should find the Pack D a little easier to run on. But in the end, the Pack O will be too much for an aging Raven D. Pack wins in a close game.

Seattle fires their GM.

Tim Ruskett, the GM that replaced Coach Holmgren in that role. Some people are assuming that Holmgren will come back to take that job along with the Presidency of the team. I don’t think that will happen. Holmgren didn’t have a great history drafting players. Check out my analysis of his draft history on NFLDraftDog.com.

Browns lose all hope.

The Browns lost their best player on D—NT Rogers and best player on O—RB Lewis to the IR. What will hurt even more, their best player overall in Mr. Everything, Cribbs. Cribbs let a kickoff free ball lay in the end zone against the Bengals. That was not a brain cramp; it was a signal that he has given up on the team, the coaching staff and his chance for getting the contract that he was promised. Again, I will comment on this more in my weekly article on NFLDraftDog.com.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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#2 Alabama 26 Auburn 21 Every run for an undefeated season has some close calls. But the Auburn D exposed a flaw in the Tide. They can’t protect QB McElroy from a speed rusher on the edge. That will be noticed by both Florida and whatever team they play in a bowl. If the game was not for bragging rights in the state, you could say that Bama got caught in a perfect sandwich game. That was not the problem. Bama played a very average game against a very average Auburn team.

#3 Texas 49 Texas A&M 39 The Horns won but their pass defense looked terrible. IF they have a healthy QB Lee, Nebraska can exploit the Texas zone by running crossing routes and flooding a zone. TAM gave the Horn D fits all game long. Had a couple of bounces gone the other way, the 6-5 Aggies would have won.

#5 Cincinnati 49 Illinois 36 Cincy QB Pike looks like a pro prospect. He has a nice delivery and is accurate on all the passes you ask for. The only question is arm strength which I think is over rated. I will be doing a complete analysis for NFLDraftDog.com soon. The Cincy D stunk the place up against a below average Illini O. They are going to have to get a lot better on pass coverage to win against Pitt next week. Pitt QB Stull is 4^th in QB efficiency in the FBS coming into the WV game.

Saturday

Florida St. @ #1 Florida This is another rivalry game but Florida should win. While the Gators are playing for a shot at another title, FSU is playing to keep the heat off of their coach. QB Tebow has a QB rating of 155 and the FSU pass D has been burned regularly this season. FSU will play tough but Florida is just too good.

Georgia @ #7 Georgia Tech This is a chance for Tech to uphold the honor of the ACC against a middle of the road SEC team. As always, GT must be able to run the ball on 1^st and 2^nd down to be competitive. If the Dogs can get out in front, GT will struggle because they can not be successful passing when they have to. GT should win but don’t be surprised if the Dogs upset the Yellow Jackets.

#12 Oklahoma St. @ Oklahoma This game is critical for the BcS hopes of the non-BcS conference teams. A 2 loss OkState team would get the BcS invitation over an undefeated TCU if for no other reason than their fans travel more. That is a slimy way to pick which team should get into the best bowls. But the Sooners have more depth than State and will win.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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#9 LSU @ #3 Alabama – 7.5

Alabama dropped a spot in the BcS last week on a bye. They get it back this week against a good but over matched LSU team. Bama QB McElroy has to be effective throwing the ball because the LSU run D is outstanding. In the last 4 games he has failed to throw for 150 yards. He must do better than that against LSU to keep the Tigers from loading up the D line. This will be another real test of the Bama O line.

LSU QB Jefferson, also a 1^st year starter, has struggled to get the ball down the field. He is completing almost 64% of his passing but only for 7.36 per attempt. RB Scott is not producing as much as they had hoped at just 4.5 per attempt and has scored only 4 TDs. The LSU O will struggle to keep the ball and let their D rest.

Look for a very low scoring game with Bama winning but struggling to cover the spread.

#17 Ohio State @ #11 Penn St – 3.5

People around Ohio are thinking Rose Bowl—not so fast my friend. That would require that the Bucks win at PS and then beat #4 Iowa next week plus a win at Michigan to end the regular season. That dream ends Saturday. The Bucks have no offense and are not sure where it went. QB Pryor has regressed and now is struggling with mechanics and reading defenses. The result is he may hit a couple of big plays.

PS has gotten solid production out of QB Clark and RB Royster. Clark has a rating of 149 and 18TDs to 7 Ints. Royster is averaging nearly 6 per carry. The D is solid but not special.

The Bucks will be trying FGs with a backup kicker while PS is scoring TDs. PS wins and covers the spread.

#7 Oregon @ Stanford – 7

This is a classic LET DOWN game for the Ducks. They looked unbeatable last week against USC at home. Now they face an up and down Stanford team that can be dangerous at home. They have not lost there. Oregon’s O is the most improved unit in all of college football. The running game is much better with RB James than it was against Boise St. He has the speed and change of direction to make the stretch play work to its maximum. The running game has made QB Masoli extremely effective with play action.

The only hope that Stanford has is that the Duck head are so big they can’t get their helmets on. Oregon should win and cover but stay away from this one due to the chance of a let down.

#24 Oklahoma @ Nebraska + 5.5

How far has this once great rivalry fallen? To the point that no one really outside of those two states cares who wins. Sooner QB Jones has done better than anyone could have hoped taking over from the injured Bradford. He has a passer rating of 142 with 17 TDs and just 6 picks. Their problem is the lack of a running game. RB Brown is averaging just 4.3 per attempt and the team struggles moving the chains. They are just trying to get into a decent bowl after losing 3 games this year.

The Huskers was quietly having a nice season at 4-1 until they lost in each of the last two games including a bad loss against Iowa St last week 9-7. The D has played better than it did last year and the O has good numbers but the latter is misleading. The O has let them down in their 3 losses scoring just 32 points in those games.

The Sooners are the better team and should win and cover but who cares?

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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College football

#1 Florida @ Kentucky The Wildcats have played well winning last week against Louisville. But they are not a threat to the Gators. Florida works on the O but the D is fine. The Gators win easily.

Arkansas @ #3 Alabama The Tide looks to be the class of the SEC West. Arkansas lost a tough game against Georgia last week in an offensive shootout. The Bama D will keep the Hog O under control and Alabama wins.

Iowa @ #5 Penn St. PS is in a position to play for the national title if they can run the table. The one problem for them is the inconsistent running game. If they can run the ball against a solid run D of Iowa, they will win and should be able to win the Big 10 with a win over Ohio State at home. This will be a really good test of their running game. Penn St. wins but it will be closer than most think.

#6 California @ Oregon Any trip to Oregon is difficult and this trip could be particularly hard. Cal had a nice win last week against Minnesota. Oregon lost to #14 Boise St. but beat #18 Utah last week. They are playing very well despite significant losses from last years team. Duck QB Masoli is going to have to prove he can complete more than 45% of his throws or Cal will shut the run down. He won’t and Cal wins.

#9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech Miami is one of the hottest teams in the country. They opened with a big win over Florida St. then beat Georgia Tech. They can win the Coastal division with a win over VT. In addition, a win this week is critical if the game next week at Oklahoma is going to be significant.

VT has redeemed itself in part from a opening loss to Alabama with a lucky 1 point win over underdog Nebraska last week. I think Miami wins on the road.

The NFL

TN @ Jets The Titans come in 0-2. They can not afford to go 0-3. The Jets are 2-0 and will have a letdown after a big win against the hated Pats last week. Tennessee finds a way to win in a tough and close game.

SF @ MN The 49ers are 2-0 but have yet to face a top team. This will be their first loss. Minnesota is too tough on D to allow RB Gore to run wild. This game will be close because SF plays much better than its talent would indicate it could.

MI @ SD The Dolphins are 0-2 and need a win desperately. The wildcat has lost its luster to some degree but the fish face an injured Charger team. The key to the game will be how much pressure the Fish can put on QB Rivers. The Charger line is banged up and LT is in the garage. The pass D of the Fish give up a couple of big plays and the Chargers win.

IN @ AZ The Colts are 2-0 but have struggled on offense. The Cards looked horrible in their first game and unbeatable in game 2. They are somewhere in between those extremes. But the Cards have their WRs back and if they can give QB Warner any time at all, they should be able to win.

AT @ NE This should be the best game of the weekend. The Falcons are really good but the Pats are really mad after the loss last week. I like ATL but the Pats won’t lose 2 in a row. Pats win close.

Tomorrow we will have September Niblets.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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College Football

USC @ Washington I don’t think the Trojans are going to want to play Ohio State again any time soon. Every time they do they lose the next game on the road. Washington is better but USC lost the game Washington didn’t win it.

Florida State @ BYU I was wrong about BYU. Florida State is a young team that hasn’t figured out how to win consistently but is always dangerous because of their speed. They jumped out on BYU and never looked back. That eliminates BYU from the national championship discussion.

Tennessee @ Florida The Vols have one of the great D coordinators in the history of college football—Wayne Kiffin, the father of head coach Lane Kiffin. WK did an outstanding job of keeping the Florida O under control despite a lack of O from Tennessee. It will take LK a while to get the guys he needs for O but the D will keep them in a lot of games.

Texas Tech @ Texas The TTk system is good but it really helps to have a great QB and top WRs. TTk stayed with Texas for awhile but don’t have the depth this year to compete.

# 19 Nebraska @ # 13 Virginia Tech While all the experts picked VT to cover, I thought Nebraska would cover and possibly win. They came very close and should have held on.

#23 Georgia @ Arkansas Georgia is over rated and as predicted came back in the 4^th quarter to win. But they are not as good as most thought they were.

The Pros

CL @ DV The Tan’s right tackle is the worst blocker I have ever seen start in the league. I have 2 for Mangini. 1^st, WHAT WERE YOU THINKING SIGNING AND STARTING RT ST. Clair? Second, how do you like your rookie C Mack that can neither block nor snap the ball in the shotgun formation? Check out my complete analysis of the 1^st through the 3^rd quarter on http://nfldraftdog.com/nfl-team-columns/cleveland-browns.html tomorrow. I didn’t watch the 4^th quarter because I just couldn’t take any more.

NO @ PH QB Kolb wasn’t quite as bad as he has been before but still threw picks that cost the Eagles any chance of a win. Look for the Eagles to start him again with the same result—another loss.

NE @ NJ Coach Rex Ryan’s D did a job on the Pats. The Pats are not as good on D as they were with Seymour. On O the Pats are not better. Part of the problem is the lack of WR Welker. He is out with a bad knee. But for the first time ever, I saw QB Brady not stepping into a throw when the pressure got around him. That is not like Brady at all. This was the first time he had a lot of pressure since coming back from his injury. He may get over it. If the Pats are going to be champions, he is going to have to ignore the rush.

The Jets are looking good on O and the D has played nothing short of outstanding football. I will have more on this tomorrow.

SD @ BA On Saturday the Charger NT Williams was put on IR. That hurt the D against the run in the game against the Ravens. The two headed monster of Rice and McGahee ran right up the gut against them. The Chargers just can’t score TDs. They kicked field goals regularly from inside the red zone. Unless that changes, the Chargers won’t go far in the playoffs.

CR @ AT Delhomme didn’t look bad but Atlanta is just a better team. The QB had just one turnover.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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College football key games

#20 Miami 33 #14 Georgia Tech 17 The D of the U played outstanding football. The secrets to stopping the option game of GT are first to force them into a lot of 3^rd and 6+ and to jump out early to take them out of their running game. Miami did both and won the game. Miami is much better sooner than anyone thought. Look for them to win the ACC Coastal.

Tennessee @ #1 Florida – Revenge served cold tastes best. Ex-Raider current Vols coach Lane Kiffin has made a lot of disparaging remarks about the Florida football program. Florida will get even Saturday. Florida will hang 50 on Tennessee who is struggling on offense. With all 22 starters from last year’s national championship team returning, look for Florida to score continually until some time Monday afternoon.

Texas Tech @ #2 Texas – This is another revenge game. Last year TT knocked Texas out of the Big 12 Championship game. The TT O is contacting unsigned SF WR Crabtree to see if he wants to come back for this game. The TT defense is going to be tested by QB Colt McCoy. This is the second most important game in the Texas schedule. Look for Texas to win big.

Florida St @ #7 BYU – FSU doesn’t leave the deep south too often. This game will give them another reason to stay home. The game is critical to BYU. They not only need to win but win big to prove they belong in the national championship conversation. They win but not big. The FSU D saves the team from a big loss.

Tulsa @ #12 Oklahoma – The Sooners don’t have QB Bradford but sub Jones will do fine. Tulsa QB Kinne can run. Given the pass rush he will face from Okl D, he will do a lot of that. Oklahoma covers the 17.5 point spread.

# 19 Nebraska @ # 13 Virginia Tech – VT won at Nebraska last year by stopping the running game. This year Nebraska goes to the air with first year starter QB Lee. The VT D is in the top 10 nationally despite giving up 34 against Alabama. Nebraska wins in a minor upset. VT is not the same team without their star RB Suggs.

#23 Georgia @ Arkansas – This is a must win for Georgia if they want to be considered for a BCS bowl. Georgia QB Cox needs to complete more than 60% he is averaging now and for more than 6.72 yards per attempt. Georgia wins but it won’t be by a lot.

The Pros

NO @ PH Eagle QB Kolb proves once and for all that he is not an NFL quality player. NO wins easily and Brees makes his fantasy owners very happy.

CR @ AT The Panthers lose again and QB Delhomme extends his run of horrible games to 3. Coach Fox calls real estate agents right after the game because Delhomme is ending his run in Carolina.

PT @ CH The Steelers win again. Cutler runs for his life because the O line fails to protect him.

NG @ DA The Giants make the opening game at JJ’s new digs something not to remember. The Cowboy O line shows it age. Giants win.

SD @ BA Tomlinson sits more than he plays because of his ankle and the Ravens D. Sproles gets to know LB Lewis REALLY well. The right side of the Charger line struggles with the pass rush. Baltimore wins.

MI @ IN The Colts will struggle with the Dolphins run game but Miami gives up the run because Indy puts up too many points against their D. Indy wins at home.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Yesterday we looked at a few unknown offensive players that have NFL potential. Today, we look at the D side of the ball.

DL

Ty Steinkuhler Nebraska—Stein is an under tackle in a 4-3 that is very disruptive. He is rock solid against the run and can rush the passer. He can penetrate by getting around the G or just pushing him back into the QB. I really like him. None of the experts seem to think he is worth a draft choice but he will make a team and become a regular in the DT rotation.

Stryker Sulak Missouri—What a great name for a D player! Sulak is a 250 pound DE that may well be a conversion project to OB. He can play the run fairly well but his strength is rushing the passer. Some team will take him in the 6^th or 7^th round and be very happy. At 6-5 he has the frame to put on 30 pounds and be a 3-4 DE, or stay at 250 and learn to play standing up.

Matt Shaughnessy Wisconsin—Matt is not your typical Badger grinder. He has the ability to rush the passer and knock down balls by timing his jump when he fails to get to the passer. He is also in that 250-260 range so he may be switched to OB in a 3-4 or at 6-6 he could also beef up to be a 4-3 or 3-4 DE. Like Sulak, he does tend to get tied up with an OT that gets their hands on him. He should be gone by the end of the 3^rd round.

Nick Reed Oregon—Reed is a 6-3 248 pounder that will be converted to OB. He shows well above average pass rush but has to work on taking good angles to runs and getting control of his body when rushing the passer. He tends to hurry the throw but fail to make a sack due to missing the QB. That can be taught. He will be a late 2 early 3 round pick.

Myron Pryor Kentucky—Pryor is a nose tackle type that has gone under the radar. He is 80 percent run stopper 20 percent pass rusher. He does help to collapse the pocket which is a critical quality for a NT. Most experts have him going in the 5^th or 6^th round but because the lack of true NTs in the draft, he will go higher and be productive.

Lawrence Sidbury Richmond—I wish this guy could keep his emotions under control. He will make 2 great plays in a row then commit a stupid penalty on 3^rd down that gives the O a first. He is a relentless pass rusher that hits the run hard but sometimes over runs the play. If he goes to a team that can focus that emotion, they will get a real bargain in 5^th or 6^th round. At 6-4 265, he can bulk up and not lose much speed.

LB

Scott McKillop Pittsburgh—He is an IB with excellent instincts and is a hard worker. He sometimes misses a tackle trying to rip the ball out, but plays the run sideline to sideline. He should be 4^th round pick.

Marcus Freeman Ohio State—Freeman is the unknown of the OSU linebackers. In 08 he played better in some games than the big names. He does everything well. He can cover a receiver, force a sweep inside and blitz the passer. He just isn’t great at any one thing. He will be a surprise 2^nd round pick.

DB

By far, the hardest position to evaluate on TV is the DB. However, there are a couple that deserve mention as under the radar high potential players.

Tony Clark S Georgia Tech—Clark is a LB that will play safety or a hybrid LB/S at the next level. He is smart, tough, and is an above average tackler. He is another guy that is not on many draft boards but is a player that deserves to be drafted or signed to a URFA contract.

Morgan Trent Michigan—Trent is a guy that could be outstanding if he kept his focus. He will make a great play then totally blow his responsibility. With coaching, he can be refocused and should be a contributor. He will be a 7^th round pick or a URFA.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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