There is no question that the Saints have one of the most dangerous Os in the league. Their win/loss record will depend most on how well they can stop the other team from doing the same thing.

Drew Brees is the #2 QB in most Fantasy Drafts this year for good reason. In the last 3 seasons he has thrown 26, 28 and 34 TDs. The only comment that some QB gurus make is that he is too short at a little under 6 feet to see over the O linemen. Let’s be honest. When you have 5 guys that are between 6-8 and 6-5 in front of you, you have to be 8 feet tall to see over them. Every QB needs to look in between his linemen to find his target. Brees has it all—leadership, arm, accuracy, ability to read coverage, ability to move in the pocket and rush awareness. His backup is Mark Brunell. Mark has to use Grecian Formula 88 to keep his hair brown because Grecian Formula 44 wasn’t strong enough. He is 39 but is a reasonable backup. Joey Harrington joins Brunell on the bench.

The Saints running game is a little up in the air. If you look at all the preseason books, they show Reggie Bush as the starter. He may but his has never in his college or professional career been “the” guy. Even sharing the position with a number of other Saints, he has not been healthy for an entire season over the last 2 years. He is a talent and has speed and elusiveness. But he is not built to handle 25 carries a game for 16 games plus playoffs.

My Fantasy tip of the year—get Pierre Thomas as your 2^nd or 3^rd RB. He averages 4.8 yards per carry and scored 12 TDs last year (9 rushing). The duo is solid and should make it difficult for defenses trying to defend the pass. The FB is Heath Evans, an excellent blocker and receiver out of the backfield.

The receiver corps is a 3 headed monster. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore are as good as any 3 in the NFC. Colston was out for 5 games but the O never seemed to slow down. There may be another head added to the group because Robert Meachem is getting better and is a solid threat. The TE are Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, and Darnell Dinkins all of whom have been starters. Shockey was a disappoint primarily due to injuries. He still caught 50 balls.

One of the goals on the O line last year was to get bigger and tougher. Ts Jammal Brown and Jon Stinchcomb were the only guys to survive the change. The team added 2 rookie guards Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans and both were OK. Jonathan Goodwin stepped in at C. The entire group is back with Brown as the best of the line. G/C Jamar Nesbit, T Zach Strief and C Nick Leckey provide veteran depth.

If the O is the good and the D is the bad then the D line is the ugly. Both DEs Charles Grant and Will Smith had injuries last season and have been suspended for the first 4 games for substance violations. Bobby McCray, Paul Spicer and E Anthony Hargrove will battle to start in their place. Spicer and Hargrove were UFA additions and have look very good in camp and in the first preseason game. DTs Sedrick Ellis and Kendrick Clancy were OK. Ellis started as a rookie.

The team traded for MLB Jonathan Vilma and he solidified the middle of the D. It’s a good thing because backup MLB Mark Simoneau was put on the IR with a torn tricep. SLB Scott Fujita and WLB Scott Shanle are projected to start but may be challenged. UFA and former all pro Derick Brooks was signed to bolster the LBs. He provides leadership and is particularly good at pass coverage.

The D backfield last year was a major problem. The team brought in vet CB Jabari Greer and drafted rookie Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State. They will challenge expected starters Randall Gay and Tracy Porter. UFA FS Darren Sharper brings leadership and joins SS Roman Harper to solidify the last line of defense. The group should be better with the additions. Vet S Pierson Prioleau was signed as a solid backup and former starter Jason David is expected to be the 5^th DB or be cut due to his salary.

OVERALL: The Saints are great on O but improving on D. They will challenge the Falcons for the NFC South title. The winner will be whichever D plays the best. Bet on the Falcons with the Saints a possible wild card team.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Related Posts:

• The Super Bowl preview from the Coach’s box. The Saints have their work cut out for them.
• The Rams have a long road back to respectability.
• The Cards’ season will depend on how the D plays.
• Tuesday Morning QB on a Thursday night.
• The 49ers need be more like their coach.

Fryingpan Sports

Should they stay or should they go (pro)?

By Bill Smith

Clash had a song “Should I stay or should I go.” That same question is on the minds of a lot of college basketball players now that the season is over. Should they go pro or stay for another year of college ball?

It depends.

If the player had a particularly strong year and tournament, their stock is most likely as high as it is going to get. If not, or if the player had a down year due to injury, they are better off staying.

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma) will be the first overall choice. He has a combination of power, athleticism and explosiveness that scouts love. He also has an extremely high BB IQ. He has announced that he will enter the 09 NBA draft.

Generally, if a player is going to selected in the first round of the NBA or NFL draft, he should go. In the recent past, several big name athletes have made the mistake of staying one year too long. For example, after the 2007 season LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) would have been a top 10 pick in the 2008 draft. In several rankings, he was listed as the top overall junior prospect if he were to announce for the draft. He wanted to stay along with a number of other OSU players to try to win a national championship in 2008. I salute those that stay in college out of loyalty to their team, their coach and their school. However, staying the extra year cost him millions of dollars in his first contract. Right now, Laurinaitis is projected to be a late first or early second round pick.

His fall has as much to do with the needs of the teams in the top half of the draft and the other players coming out this year as it does with Laurinaitis as it does with his play in 2008. But falling is a risk you take making the decision to come out or stay. Both Beanie Wells (RB Ohio State) and Malcolm Jenkins (CB OSU) have fallen from what their value would have been in the 2008 draft as well.

In Wells’ case, it was the injury in the first game that has put him behind other RBs on some draft boards. That limited his totals and kept him out of the game against USC. Even after he came back, he was not 100% healthy and that hurt his performance.

Jenkins has fallen due to a slower than expected time in the 40 yard dash at the combine. While he improved on it at his pro day at OSU, there are still teams that wonder if he has the speed to be a shut down corner. If not, he will be drafted as a safety, a position that is seldom drafted before the middle of the 2^nd round.

This year in the NBA draft, several players that are coming out should stay in school. Others that are staying that would probably be better off entering the draft.

I do think that the NBA rule that permits a player that has not hired an agent to change his mind is a good thing. The NFL would do well to adopt something similar. I also support both leagues’ programs that give a player an independent evaluation of where he might be taken. This too supports the player’s ability to make a good decision. As I said yesterday, the choice should be with the player and his support team and not with the league or the union involved.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

Related Posts:

• Saturday’s Niblets from around the net for 03/14/09
• The NFL and NBA should be brought before the Supreme Court.
• Saturday Niblets for 6/6/09
• Niblets from around the net for 4/11/09
• Analysis: The UFL stakes everything on an NFL lockout.

Fryingpan Sports

Saturday’s Niblets from around the net for 03/14/09

By Bill Smith

Best comment this week:

From Sportsbook on Capologist is the NFL MVP

Comment:

You are right and it is unfortunate, but I have a feeling that this will get settled in the 11th hour like it was last time. Last time, the economy was good. This time, the NFL will look even worse if they can’t settle this mess and keep the fans happy.

Also, this will be Goodell’s first test. Yes, we know he’s a sheriff and can suspended players when necessary, but what about the labor talks? How competent is he with that?

My Analysis: we will all find out how good a negotiator he is soon enough. But it takes two parties committed to getting a deal done to accomplish a contract. My fear is that the campaign rhetoric coming from the candidates to replace Gene Upshaw as the Executive Director of the NFL Players Association indicates that Goodell may not have a reasonable partner with whom to bargain.

UPDATES ON PREVIOUS COLUMNS:

The 08-09 Cavilers are not your fathers team.

Thursday night the Cavs on their west coast road trip came back from a significant deficit to beat the Suns. While wins on the road don’t necessarily translate to NBA Championships, their road record against really good teams shows they have taken another step toward becoming a championship caliber team.

My Analysis: They are showing the physical style of play to beat teams in the east but can also play an up and down game to compete with the wide open style of the western conference.

Big name cuts in the NFL have little to do with the salary cap.

Big names continue to get cut. The Rams cut both OT Orlando Pace and WR Torry Holt. The Ravens cut CB Samari Rolle. We usually see these cuts after June 1 so that the cap hit can be spread over a couple of cap years. This year there is no cap in 2010 onto which a team can spread the hit. As a result, the teams are making all their cuts now.

News from around the net:

A-FRAUD Jersey has been baned by MLB.

One of the fastest selling jerseys in the MLB has been banned. The Commissioner’s office announced that it will outlaw the shirts.

My Analysis: While that may not be a violation of free speech guaranteed in the Constitution, it is at least proof that the truth hurts. A-Fraud probably called the Commish and complained that it hurt his feelings.

The Cincinnati Bungles do something right!

The Bengals signed WR FA Lavernious Coles. Former Jet Coles is not only a vet, he is a true professional and a gentleman.

My Analysis: Maybe the Bungles have learned that players that hang out in the Hamilton County Correctional facility don’t really help you win games.

Syracuse basketball team shows real grit in the Big East Tournament.

Syracuse and Connecticut played a marathon 6 over time game Thursday night. Despite the fact that both teams will be in the Big Dance, the teams fought it out until after 1AM eastern time. Syracuse finally won the game. It was one of the most exciting games I have seen in a very long time.

As the winner, they got to play a tough West Virginia team on Friday night. The team showed great grit in fighting all the way against a much more rested Mountaineer club. Orange was behind much of the game and clawed their way to as much as a 5 point lead late in the second half. But for the Orange, this year nothing is easy. WV tied the score and forced the game to overtime. Even though the Orange looked deflated as the clock hit 0.0, they somehow found the energy deep inside them to win it in overtime.

My Analysis: In many ways, the grit of the Orange reminds me of the way that the Cavs grind out wins. This game was sloppy at times due to fatigue but the intensity of play is what makes college sports so special. Things only get screwed up when the “adults” get in the way of the kids playing the game.

Two Ohio State NFL Draft prospects use their pro day at OSU to try to recover from bad 40 times at the combine.

CB Malcolm Jenkins ran a relatively respectable unofficial time of between 4.46 seconds and 4.53 seconds in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day according to Plain Dealer reporter Doug Lesmerises. His teammate RB Chris Wells unofficially ran between 4.34 seconds and 4.46 seconds.

My Analysis: The pro day will help Wells much more than Jenkins. Times between 4.46 and 4.53 will cause some teams to categorize him as a safety rather than a CB. That could drive him down in the draft to at best a late 1^st early second round pick. Jenkins has to hope that his work on the field will convince at least one GM that he can be a shut down corner worthy of a top 15 selection.

Wells should regain the status as the top running back in the draft with his time. However, his durability will still be a concern.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

Related Posts:

• Should they stay or should they go (pro)?
• Niblets from around the net for 4/4/09
• The Bengals will go as far as their O takes them.
• AFC Draft winners and losers
• Niblets with NFL Draft sauce for 4/25/09