#9 LSU @ #3 Alabama – 7.5

Alabama dropped a spot in the BcS last week on a bye. They get it back this week against a good but over matched LSU team. Bama QB McElroy has to be effective throwing the ball because the LSU run D is outstanding. In the last 4 games he has failed to throw for 150 yards. He must do better than that against LSU to keep the Tigers from loading up the D line. This will be another real test of the Bama O line.

LSU QB Jefferson, also a 1^st year starter, has struggled to get the ball down the field. He is completing almost 64% of his passing but only for 7.36 per attempt. RB Scott is not producing as much as they had hoped at just 4.5 per attempt and has scored only 4 TDs. The LSU O will struggle to keep the ball and let their D rest.

Look for a very low scoring game with Bama winning but struggling to cover the spread.

#17 Ohio State @ #11 Penn St – 3.5

People around Ohio are thinking Rose Bowl—not so fast my friend. That would require that the Bucks win at PS and then beat #4 Iowa next week plus a win at Michigan to end the regular season. That dream ends Saturday. The Bucks have no offense and are not sure where it went. QB Pryor has regressed and now is struggling with mechanics and reading defenses. The result is he may hit a couple of big plays.

PS has gotten solid production out of QB Clark and RB Royster. Clark has a rating of 149 and 18TDs to 7 Ints. Royster is averaging nearly 6 per carry. The D is solid but not special.

The Bucks will be trying FGs with a backup kicker while PS is scoring TDs. PS wins and covers the spread.

#7 Oregon @ Stanford – 7

This is a classic LET DOWN game for the Ducks. They looked unbeatable last week against USC at home. Now they face an up and down Stanford team that can be dangerous at home. They have not lost there. Oregon’s O is the most improved unit in all of college football. The running game is much better with RB James than it was against Boise St. He has the speed and change of direction to make the stretch play work to its maximum. The running game has made QB Masoli extremely effective with play action.

The only hope that Stanford has is that the Duck head are so big they can’t get their helmets on. Oregon should win and cover but stay away from this one due to the chance of a let down.

#24 Oklahoma @ Nebraska + 5.5

How far has this once great rivalry fallen? To the point that no one really outside of those two states cares who wins. Sooner QB Jones has done better than anyone could have hoped taking over from the injured Bradford. He has a passer rating of 142 with 17 TDs and just 6 picks. Their problem is the lack of a running game. RB Brown is averaging just 4.3 per attempt and the team struggles moving the chains. They are just trying to get into a decent bowl after losing 3 games this year.

The Huskers was quietly having a nice season at 4-1 until they lost in each of the last two games including a bad loss against Iowa St last week 9-7. The D has played better than it did last year and the O has good numbers but the latter is misleading. The O has let them down in their 3 losses scoring just 32 points in those games.

The Sooners are the better team and should win and cover but who cares?

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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1 Florida is clearly the best of the top 3 teams. It went to LSU at night and dominated what had been an explosive offense. LSU’s QB Jefferson was 11-17 but only got 96 yards. That was just not enough. The LSU running game was also contained by the Gator D.

Gator QB Tebow looked just OK coming back from the concussion. The Florida O was limited by the LSU defense. LSU showed it deserved to be in the top 10 but was not a contender for the national championship.

As I suggested last week, 2 Texas wasn’t mentally into the game against Colorado in the first half. The team was down 14-10 at the half. But in the second half the O woke up and put another 28 points on the board. However, there are some problems with the Texas team. They can not run the ball. They averaged only 2.2 yards per attempt against a very average Colorado D. That is not going to bode well for them against Oklahoma let alone a Florida or Alabama D.

3 Alabama took the (former #4) #20 Mississippi team apart and reassembled them incorrectly. The Bama D made Ole Miss QB Snead to be a fraud as a top NFL QB prospect. He just doesn’t read coverages well or perform under duress. Snead threw 4 interceptions and there could have been a couple more. It was not his best game. But so far against a mix of decent and not so good teams Snead has 9 TDs and 9 picks. He has lost his shot at a 1^st round pick in the draft.

Mississippi has no more games against ranked teams. The losses against Alabama and South Carolina have proven that the team is not a contender but a pretender.

News flash—5 Virginia Tech is really good. They did what I said they would and crushed BC. The Tech D cause 3 turnovers and did not allow a score by BC until the 4^th quarter when the game was in the bag. They have now beaten 2 ranked teams after a close loss at Alabama. If they can beat Georgia Tech next week on the road, they should be able to run the table and be in the conversation for the National Championship game. But as good as they are, they won’t be able to handle Florida.

There are problems on both sides of the ball for 9 Ohio State. They never should have beaten Wisconsin. The O generated 1 drive at the end of the 1^st half for a touchdown. That was all that the O did on its own. The problem is QB Pryor’s inability to be consistently accurate and the O line’s inability to protect him. The line breaks down regularly on pass protection and fails to push a good D line off the ball in the running game. The report from OSU is that Pryor asked to throw more from the pocket in a pro style O to improve his pro prospects. It isn’t working. A 5 for 13 game for 87 yards is not going to win many games.

The new WR corps is below the quality of that last year but the fact is that Pryor has not progressed. In some ways like staring down the receiver he has regressed. If OSU is going to win against Iowa and Penn State, he is going to have to get better in a hurry.

The D can’t stop a solid running game on 3^rd down. The Badgers didn’t run all over the Buckeye D but they converted key 3^rd and 4^th downs to keep drives going. It was only when they threw the ball that the Wisconsin O ran into trouble. The OSU D is going to have to do a better job stopping the run.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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1 Florida @ 4 LSU

QB Tim Tebow is reportedly going to start the game Saturday. In the first couple of series watch to see if he is running the ball and if he is using his head rather than risking it by sliding or going out of bounds before he takes a monster hit. The risk is once you have had a concussion you are more susceptible to them in the future. He has hurt his draft status because of the injury. A broken arm or knee would not have done as much damage as a concussion to his ranking in the draft.

The Florida running game beside Tebow is going to have to pick up the slack better than it did after the injury against Kentucky. Despite Tebow going out in the middle of the 3^rd quarter, he still was the leading rusher in the game. No other back got 100 yards or more than 12 carries. Tebow got 16 in a little over a half of football.

The other aspect of the Florida game will be how effective will Tebow be in passing. He has yet to prove to most scouts that he is an NFL quality QB prospect in part because of questioned arm strength and partly because he has to change from a pure spread to an NFL style offense. That is not an easy transition. QB Brantley is a talented backup but does not offer the leadership that Tebow offers. If Tebow can’t go or has to come out, look for the Gators to run more and depend on Brantley to throw less to try not to lose the game. The game plan will become a lot more conservative.

LSU has its own concerns on offense. They are home and playing at night which is one of the best venues in college football. But the team ranks 80^th in the nation in scoring TDs in the red zone. FGs are not going to beat Florida. They are going to have to score TDs.

QB Jefferson is 19 and the youngest QB starting in the SEC. He needs some help from the play caller if he is going to do better against the veteran Florida D than he has against the likes of Vanderbilt or Louisiana-Lafayette. They need him to do less reading and more rolling out. That should also help reduce the rush from the Gator front 7. He seems more comfortable reading half the field in a roll out than trying to read the entire field from the pocket.

Another problem LSU has in scoring inside the red zone is that they have not proven that they can run the ball into the endzone. That results in the D playing the pass exclusively inside the 20.

If Tebow plays the Gators win. If not, they lose.

Colorado @ 2 Texas

This is a trap game for Texas. They get Oklahoma next week. Traditionally Texas wins the game before the Red River Rivalry but not by much. Colorado is not a good team. It has lost to both Colorado State and Toledo. Look for a closer than expected game with the Horns winning.

3 Alabama @ 20 Mississippi

This game would have carried a lot more hype had not Ole Miss lost to South Carolina. Alabama is an outstanding team with a crushing D. This is QB Snead’s chance to prove he is a top NFL prospect. So far he has show the potential but not the production in big games. In what most people think was his highpoint in the defeat of Florida last year he was 9 for 20 for 185 and 2 TDs with 1 int. Not what he needs to prove his value.

Alabama can not look past Ole Miss because it has #25 SC, a road game at Tennessee and home against LSU in the next 3 weeks. This is put up or shut up time for the Tide. They need a big win here to prove their worthiness for the #3 spot. They will win but not by enough to satisfy the home folks.

Boston College @ 4 Virginia Tech

BC has had Tech’s number the last few years. But this year should be different. VT wins comfortably.

Wisconsin @ 9 Ohio State

The key to this game will be the ability of Wisconsin to run the ball with their outstanding O line against the D line of OSU. The Badgers are still trying to find out exactly who they are. They better find out before 3:30 on Saturday or it will be a long day. OSU wins but struggles as it always does.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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By Bill Smith

MEMO TO THE BROWNS, BENGALS, RAIDERS, LIONS, and several other teams on the day before the NFL DRAFT—TRY NOT TO SCREW IT UP!

One of the great mistakes that some NFL teams seem to commit every year is forcing the draft and not letting it come to them. A QB that tries to force his will on the D will get picked more often than those that see the field and throw to the open receiver. That is a fact of life. It is the same thing with the draft.

TO BE SUCCESSFUL OVER THE LONG TERM, YOU HAVE TO TAKE WHAT THE DRAFT AND THE DEPTH OF EACH POSITION OF PLAYERS GIVES YOU. Rather than reaching for a player that fits your top need, take the best player on the board that fills one of your needs or the player that is in a position that is in short supply. LET THE DRAFT COME TO YOU.

Let’s use the Browns as an example because they have a combination of a high draft position and a wide variety of needs.

Needs in rough order of urgency:

A pass rusher at DE or OB.

A pair of WRs to replace Braylon Edwards (if he is traded) and Donte’ Stallworth (guest of the state of Florida for the next 10 to 20 years)

An IB to replace Andra Davis (UFA Colts)

A NT to replace/spell the pro bowl Shaun Rogers that HC Eric Mangini has already ticked off

A real right tackle to try to keep the QBs healthy

A safety to replace Sean Jones (UFA signed by Eagles)

A TE to replace the traded Kellen Winslow (TB Bucs) IF they don’t trust last year’s 4^th round pick Martin Rucker (pick 111)

A RB to spell Jamal Lewis

A CB to replace Brandon McDonald who would move to nickel back.

Supply by position:

This year more than any in the last 4 there is a plethora of NFL quality WRs

A couple of handfuls of IBs

Zero experienced OB that can rush the QB in an NFL 3-4

Dozens of 250 lb college DEs that are candidates to convert to OB

An above average number of RBs Ss and OTs

3 or 4 potential starting TEs

As always, there are only 2 or 3 legitimate NT candidates

There are also just a couple pass rush candidates that can play DE in the 3-4

This year there are 0 shut down corners

Given the supply and demand this year, what should the Browns do?

They should NOT trade Edwards for a 2^nd and 5^th choice! He is worth more to them than what they could get in those choices. Since Mangineous reads my site and always considers what I suggest, Edwards is as good as gone.

Round 1, Pick 5 (5) Take the player in the most demand with the smallest supply—NT or pass rush DE. With the 5^th pick, they should take NT B.J. Raji (Boston College) or trade down (if they can) 4 or 5 spots and take DE Tyson Jackson (LSU). DO NOT TAKE A WR with the 5^th pick unless you have pulled a Burress and traded Edwards.

Round 2, Pick 4 (36) Take an IB. Rey Maualuga (USC) or James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) might well be there and would greatly help stop the run. If both are gone and one of the second level OTs is on the board take that. If all that fails, NOW you can risk converting a college DE to OB.

Round 2, Pick 18 (50) (From Buccaneers) Take whatever you didn’t get in your first 2^nd round pick or get your WR here.

Round 4, Pick 4 (104) This is the area where you can get a real value at RB. Remember, the Giants got all pro RB Brandon Jacobs with the 110^th pick in 2005. S is another possibility in the 4^th.

Round 6, Pick 4 (177) Best available player. After all, it isn’t like the Browns couldn’t use almost anything they drafted to improve what they have.

That is a plan that can help bring the Browns back toward being a competitive team. And that is the same plan that can help you limit the number of heavy objects you throw at your TV in frustration this season.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

If you draft out of fear of failure you will fail.

By Bill Smith

Given all the failures of QBs early in the NFL draft over the recent years, this year there is more talk than ever of drafting not to fail. The new administration of the Lions is going to have to byte the bullet about their first overall pick.

There was the first overall pick in 1999 with the Browns taking QB Tim “I’m on the” Couch (Kentucky). The team never has recovered.

That same year the Bengals drafted Akili Smith (Oregon) with the 3^rd pick overall. The Bengals ended up drafting QB Carson Palmer (USC).

There was the first overall pick in 2002 with the Texans taking QB David Carr (BYU). The Texans languished for 5 years before putting their QB on the used Carr lot.

In 2006, Arizona took Matt Leinart (USC) with the 10^th pick. He now holds the clip board for 38 year old Kurt Warner.

There was the first overall pick in 2007 with the Raiders taking JaMarcus Russell (LSU). A herd of coaches have yet to make him a NFL quality QB.

Although Vince Young (Texas) was the 3^rd pick overall, it has stunted the playoff success of the Titans.

No wonder the Lions are a little squeamish about drafting a QB with the first overall pick. But here is the deal—IF (and only if) you feel that Matt Stafford (Georgia) is a franchise QB, you have to draft him. Failing to take a franchise QB out of fear of failure is a recipe for years to come. And most of those years will be managed by your replacements in the front office.

As you know, I have reservations about Stafford. His decision making leaves a lot to be desired. Some of that may be that he depends on his strong arm too much. But throws you shouldn’t make in college will result in touchdowns for the opponent in the NFL. But Stafford is very bright and with tape study and work on the field, he can improve his decision making. His footwork and mechanics are also in need of work. But those too can be fixed.

Last year the Dolphins had the first pick and took an O lineman Jake Long (LT Michigan) with that pick and QB Chad Henne (Michigan) with a 2^nd round pick. The Lions are not going to be able to do that this year. If they pass on Stafford, chances are the other two supposedly 1^st round picks Mark Sanchez (USC) and Josh Freeman (Kansas St.) will be gone by the 20^th pick. I don’t have any other QB rated in the second or third round.

Like it or not, the Lions have very few choices other than Stafford. One possibility would be to trade for QB Derek Anderson (Browns). He is a young but somewhat proven QB with a strong arm that would make the Lions offense better. Then they could draft an LT with the first pick and either later this year or next pick up a QB of the future. That is the safe choice. But if they feel that Stafford is franchise QB, they have to go for it.

Such are the decisions that make a GM famous or if it doesn’t work out, unemployed. That is how so many ex-GMs end up on ESPN.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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