Ohio State is B A C K.

The Bucks finally played up to the hype from the beginning of the season. They put heat on Penn State QB Clark and stopped RB Royster cold. The Buckeye O actually looked decent with QB Pryor hitting some nice passes down field against the PS zone. The passing game also opened up the running game.

Now they get Iowa coming off a loss not only on the scoreboard but of their QB. The BIG question is now that the pressure is back on the Bucks, will they wilt again or will they step up and win the next big game to take another step toward the Rose Bowl.

Iowa has been on the bubble all year long and it finally burst.

Iowa was 4^th in the BcS standings which is the highest they have ever been. Unlike the Oklahoma Boise game, the loss of QB Stanzi did cost them the game against Northwestern. The result knocked them out of the race for the BcS big game. The latest word is that Stanzi will be out for at least 2 weeks which would put him back in time for a bowl game. If the game after the injury is any indication, Iowa won’t be able to beat OSU. To win, OSU will have to beat itself. As any Buckeye fan that watched the game against Purdue can attest, the Buckeyes are perfectly capable of doing exactly that.

Alabama looks very strong in a win over LSU.

The Tide rolled slowly but was able to win a key game over #9 LSU. The 24-15 win was impressive and as predicted here last week was enough to push Bama back into 2^nd in the BcS.

#1 Florida and then #2 Texas win against over matched competition.

Neither game was impressive but they each did enough to win and keep themselves in the race.

Headaches at BcSville.

What is the worst case for the BcS? 6 undefeated teams this far into the season. This is the largest number of teams with perfect records ever after 9 weeks of the college season. Even with the game between Alabama and Florida taking one team out, there is a very good likelihood that we will end up with at least 3 and probably 4 or 5 perfect teams. Even so, don’t even think that will lead to any change. The ONLY way we are going to get a change is to have major donors to universities tell the pinhead presidents “no playoff no money.”

Who among the “others” is the most deserving for a BcS bowl?

From least to most deserving:

Boise State is the least deserving because they have just one quality win against Oregon in week 1. That win lost a lot of luster with Oregon getting blown out last weekend. If you want to be considered a major power, you have to schedule major powers. The complaint is “they won’t come to our house and play. Too bad. Go play them in their house and prove your worth by beating them. BS will finish undefeated but will go to a good but less than BcS bowl.

Cincinnati is more worthy than BS. They have nice wins at Oregon St., and then #21 South Florida (after SF lost their senior QB Grothe) and solid wins at home against both Louisville and Fresno St. But in a home game last week against Connecticut, they showed nerves and were just able to win the game 47-45. Cincy has a tough game on the 13^th against #25 West Virginia. Even if Cincy wins they shouldn’t push past our most deserving undefeated outsider.

TCU has impressive road wins against Clemson and then #16 BYU and has this week’s game against #16 Utah. TCU has an oppressive D to go with an outstanding O to challenge any BcS team. Even if they win out, they will not get an invitation to the BcS big game but will get a BcS bowl. Any team that plays TCU had better be ready or it will get blown out.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• What did we learn from the College football weekend for 10/26/09?
• What to look for in College football for week 8.
• What did we learn from the College weekend 7?
• What to look for in New Years Day bowl games.
• What did we learn from college football this week? Who is going where.

1 Florida @ Miss St.

The Gators will face a pretty good O in the Bulldogs. QB Lee has a passer rating of 112.3 and RB Dixon averages 5.2 per run. The Dogs have struggled on D against good teams. In losses to Auburn, 7 LSU and 13 Georgia Tech they gave up a total of 121 points. They will give up quite a few against Florida as well. Florida this year seems to loose concentration in games against lessor teams. That is particularly true when a tough game is next up. The Gators will play Georgia next which is a big rival. Florida will win but it could be closer than it should be.

Tennessee @ 2 Alabama

Bama has taken over the top spot in some of the rankings and that is well deserved. It has outplayed Florida against better competition. Bama has beaten 3 ranked teams and won the games easily. Their D is playing outstanding ball giving up just 9 points in the last 2 games against ranked teams. The Bama O has played well with QB McElroy having a 137.6 passing rating and 2 RBs averaging over 5 per carry.

Tennessee had a nice win last week over Georgia but faces 2 ranked teams in the next 2 weeks. The D has played well but the O is inconsistent. QB Crompton has been streaky but is completing less than 58% with 13 TDs and 9 picks. He has a set of good receivers as well. He has racked up a lot of the numbers against 2 teams. RB Hardesty averages 5.4 per carry. The O has struggled against good defenses. They will struggle badly against Bama. Bama wins.

3 Texas @ Missouri

The Horns tend to play with less energy after the Oklahoma game. But they have way too much for the Tigers. Missouri lost a lot in graduation or the draft and is not a physical team. They will be pushed all over the field by Texas and the Horns win.

4 Boise State @ Hawaii

Boise is 4^th but has no chance of playing for the national championship. I don’t want to hear any crying from State fans because if they want to play for a title they need to schedule more than 1 tough opponent. The only ranked team they played was Oregon. The rest of their schedule is too weak to get the spot over a 1 loss SEC or Big 12 team. They will win at Hawaii and get a nice tan at the same time.

Louisville @ 5 Cincinnati

Cincy may have lost their QB Pike in the game against South Florida. Pike has led the team to 244 points in 6 games. His replacement is Collaros is an untested sophomore. Pike’s status is unknown. The Cincy D has played well and should have no problem with the Cards or next week against Syracuse. However, they have 4 tough games to end the season and will need Pike if they want to win out.

6 Iowa @ Michigan St.

Iowa has 2 tough road games left on its schedule and this is one of them. Iowa has a shot at the big game if it ends the season undefeated. Either Alabama or Florida will lose at least 1 game when they meet in the SEC Championship game. That leaves only Texas as the other candidate. The Hawk O is inconsistent but seems to show up in big games. If Iowa gets by MSU their only other road game is at Ohio State.

The MSU D is very tough with 12 sacks in the last 3 games. They stopped last year star RB Green on 4^th and 1 to preserve a win over Iowa. The game is at night and it is MSU’s best shot to get to a New Years Day Bowl. The Spartans may be more dangerous than the Buckeyes to Iowa’s hopes. Iowa will win in a close game.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• Tuesday Morning QB for 9/29/09
• What to look for this weekend.
• What did we learn from college football this week? Who is going where.

Tonight Utah St. @ 20 BYU The Cougars should have no problem with Utah St. This game should be over by half time but probably won’t be. BYU has a habit of playing down to the competition even at home.

Tonight Pitt @ Louisville Pitt was stunned by NC State last week. They have looked good until that game but State controlled the ball over 37 minutes. The Pitt D could not get off the field. Louisville was thought by some to be a top 25 team before the season. They are not. Pitt wins easily.

#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia LSU is 4^th by default. They are not that good. Their win over Washington looked a lot better than it was after the upset of USC. The team is struggling on O. They just got by a very weak Mississippi St. team last week 30-26. QB Jefferson has good passing stats against weak DBs and the Tigers can’t run the ball. Georgia is a better team and is getting 3 points at home. LSU plays better at night at home and neither is the case here. Take the Bulldogs and give the 3.

#7 USC @ #24 Cal USC will be without both QB Barkley and RB Johnson this week. The problem with the USC O is the O line. It just has not come around as quickly as everyone thought it would. Cal has problems of its own after a 42-3 loss last week to Oregon. Cal is over rated and it showed last week. USC wins by more than the 5 point spread.

#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami This is a very young Miami team playing a very young Sooner QB. Miami looks like a bunch of freshmen and sophomores playing great against both Florida St. and Georgia Tech then looking outclasses by Virginia Tech on the road. Which Miami will show up is anyone’s guess. But the Oklahoma D will show up. I would not touch this game with a 50 pole but I usually go with the best D. Oklahoma should cover 7.5 point spread despite a couple of interceptions thrown by QB Jones.

#22 Michigan @ Michigan St. Big Blue has a very slow defensive backfield. That will be a problem against a set of very good WRs from MSU. Of course there is always an issue of QB Cousins getting the ball to them. He looked OK last week in a 36-30 loss at Wisconsin but was replaced by Nichol who averaged 16 yards per attempt vs. Cousins 5.6 per throw. Regardless who plays QB, Big Blue wins.

Florida St @ Boston College FSU has looked great one week and horrible the next. They went to BYU and looked like world beaters then were drubbed by a back up QB for South Florida at home last week. BC is struggling on O against Clemson then looked better against Wake Forest last week. But WF is over rated and the athleticism of FSU will carry the day.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Related Posts:

• Tuesday Morning QB for 9/29/09
• What to look for this weekend.
• What to look for in College football for week 8.
• What did we learn about College ball this week?
• What to look for this weekend in College Football.

College football

#1 Florida @ Kentucky The Wildcats have played well winning last week against Louisville. But they are not a threat to the Gators. Florida works on the O but the D is fine. The Gators win easily.

Arkansas @ #3 Alabama The Tide looks to be the class of the SEC West. Arkansas lost a tough game against Georgia last week in an offensive shootout. The Bama D will keep the Hog O under control and Alabama wins.

Iowa @ #5 Penn St. PS is in a position to play for the national title if they can run the table. The one problem for them is the inconsistent running game. If they can run the ball against a solid run D of Iowa, they will win and should be able to win the Big 10 with a win over Ohio State at home. This will be a really good test of their running game. Penn St. wins but it will be closer than most think.

#6 California @ Oregon Any trip to Oregon is difficult and this trip could be particularly hard. Cal had a nice win last week against Minnesota. Oregon lost to #14 Boise St. but beat #18 Utah last week. They are playing very well despite significant losses from last years team. Duck QB Masoli is going to have to prove he can complete more than 45% of his throws or Cal will shut the run down. He won’t and Cal wins.

#9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech Miami is one of the hottest teams in the country. They opened with a big win over Florida St. then beat Georgia Tech. They can win the Coastal division with a win over VT. In addition, a win this week is critical if the game next week at Oklahoma is going to be significant.

VT has redeemed itself in part from a opening loss to Alabama with a lucky 1 point win over underdog Nebraska last week. I think Miami wins on the road.

The NFL

TN @ Jets The Titans come in 0-2. They can not afford to go 0-3. The Jets are 2-0 and will have a letdown after a big win against the hated Pats last week. Tennessee finds a way to win in a tough and close game.

SF @ MN The 49ers are 2-0 but have yet to face a top team. This will be their first loss. Minnesota is too tough on D to allow RB Gore to run wild. This game will be close because SF plays much better than its talent would indicate it could.

MI @ SD The Dolphins are 0-2 and need a win desperately. The wildcat has lost its luster to some degree but the fish face an injured Charger team. The key to the game will be how much pressure the Fish can put on QB Rivers. The Charger line is banged up and LT is in the garage. The pass D of the Fish give up a couple of big plays and the Chargers win.

IN @ AZ The Colts are 2-0 but have struggled on offense. The Cards looked horrible in their first game and unbeatable in game 2. They are somewhere in between those extremes. But the Cards have their WRs back and if they can give QB Warner any time at all, they should be able to win.

AT @ NE This should be the best game of the weekend. The Falcons are really good but the Pats are really mad after the loss last week. I like ATL but the Pats won’t lose 2 in a row. Pats win close.

Tomorrow we will have September Niblets.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Related Posts:

• What did we learn from the College football weekend for 10/26/09?
• What did we learn about College ball this week?
• Tuesday Morning QB for 9/29/09
• What to look for in College football for week 8.
• What did we learn from the College weekend 7?

Monday night football:

Both Oakland and Buffalo came close to winning their opening games but both fell just short.

BF @ NE

The Bills played unbelievably well. The Bills Defense provided a second way to defeat the Pats—Tampa 2 with pressure. The Pats did not look good. QB Brady was not nearly as accurate as he was in the preseason. That will come with time. But two things that will not improve much with time are the Pat D and the O line. The running game of the Bills is half of what it will be when the star RB Marshawn Lynch returns from NFL suspension. Even so, the Bills running game gashed the Pats D for 4.7 yards per attempt. The Pats D will miss Seymour who was traded to Oakland for a 2011 1^st round draft choice that might never be made due to a work stoppage. During the game Pat MLB Mayo was hurt the extent of which is under the protection of Belichick Security Inc. The D backfield has never been good and will suffer this year because of less pressure on the QB that Seymour produced in previous seasons.

The Bills O looked much better than it did in the preseason. New O Coordinator Van Pelt put a great game plan together. The D held the Pats running game to 3.2 yards per attempt. The only reason the Bills lost at NE was the fumble of the kick return with just over 2 minutes left that gave the Pats the ball at the Bills 30.

SD @ Oak

Oakland looked outstanding on D. But they have had the best D under the radar in the league for a couple of years. The D is clearly better with Seymour moving all over the line causing havoc.

The O was a different matter. The one guy that cost Oakland this game and many others to come is QB(?) Russell. He gives inconsistency a bad name. He went 12 for 30 attempts for 208 yards most of which was on run after the catch. He threw 2 interceptions and 1 TD. The Raider running game was working well but they will face 47 guys in the box unless Russell can become more of a threat passing the ball.

The frustrating thing about the QB is that on one play he will make a great read and perfect throw and on the next toss a pick that will make you wonder what he was thinking—or if he was thinking at all.

The Raiders are also starting the wrong RB. Bush is the guy that should be the prime back. He is not as fast as he was in Louisville because of his leg being full of steel. But he does not fumble and can move the pile. Nothing encourages an O lineman to drive his guy out of the hole better than a 240 RB bashing into his backside. The Raiders ran the ball very well. The O line has gotten better under Coach Cable. The team also makes fewer mistakes. They committed only 6 penalties to the 9 that were called on the Chargers.

The Charger running game works better with Sproles than it does with Tomlinson. LT doesn’t look 100 percent. He has lost a step now that he is 30. It may be rust but don’t bet on it. I predict that he will not have the kind of season that Fantasy players want to see.

LB Merriman also looks more than a step slow. He is coming back from a tough injury. It takes a full 15 months to come back from that. He will get better as time goes on. Even with 1.5 legs, he is better than any of the bench guys.

Around the league

Bear all pro MLB Bryan Urlacker is out for the year. He had his broken wrist operated on yesterday. This will hurt the team badly and they will not make the playoffs.

Eagle QB McNabb has a broken rib. Two things must be said about this injury. First, the team says that we will be back in a week or two. I have had 12 broken ribs after being hit by a car. I can guarantee you that he will be out more than a week or two. If the rib is still broken and a 300+ DT falls on him, it could drive the rib into his lung which is life threatening.

Second, the rules have to be changed about tackling a player in the endzone. The second a player has possession of the ball and breaks the plain of the goaline, the ball is dead and it is a TD. McNabb was hit 6 yards into the endzone by 2 Giants. That has to be a penalty.

Ex-Raider QB Jeff Garcia was signed by the Eagles. He played with the Eagles in 2006 and started 6 games.

The Williams boys DTs for the Vikes won their case against the NFL to prevent the league from suspending them for being detected having taken a banned substance. This decision has huge implications and I will discuss them here tomorrow.

Comm. Goodell said this week he would make a decision on the Jets and Coach Mangini’s failure to put QB Favre on the injury list soon. This is worth watching just for the comedy value.

The Browns looked much better than I expected. Check out my article on http://www.nfldraftdog.com/nfl-team-columns/cleveland-browns.html which will be up on Thursday.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• Unexpected consequences of the uncapped 2010.
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