NOTE: This list is the NFC only. The list of AFC players is below.

Sleepers

QB

Matthew Stafford – The Lions are going to be behind a lot and Stafford will throw a lot. He has Johnson and that should help him produce more than a 18th ranking would project.

Matt Hasselbeck Seahawks – Yes, he is old and the O line is a little shaky but Matt should have a good year. Check out the handcuffs on this one because you will need some insurance.

Matt Moore Panthers – Moore is better than you think and the D may struggle. That means a lot of opportunities to throw to Smith et. al.

RB

Brandon Jacobs Giants – He is a starter for a playoff team but is ranked 29th RB by NFL. At that point he is a great value but handcuff him. The O line is better and so should the passing game.

Clinton Portis Redskins – He is rated 32nd at RB and should have a better season than most if he can stay healthy. The passing game is better and the system suits him.

Pierre Thomas Saints – This team will be ahead a lot and Thomas is the work-horse.

LeSean McCoy Eagles – The Birds will run more this year without McNabb.

WR

Dez Bryant Cowboys – Dez wouldn’t normally be on this list. But since he was hurt, many have taken him off their draft list. Take him late and he will pay off.

Santana Moss Redskins – He is ranked 26th but should be a prime target for McNabb.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh Seahawks – TJ is healthy and should have a good year.

TE

Tony Scheffler Lions – QB Stafford will be pressured more than the checkout girl at a half price sale of designer wedding gowns. He will need a security blanket and Scheffler is the guy that can bail him out.

Handcuffs

QB

Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst Seahawks – Matt is a little fragile so get some insurance.

RB

Marion Barber and Felix Jones Cowboys – The Boys will use RB by committee but both are injury risks.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw Giants – Jacobs runs upright and has a history of injury.

Avoids

QB

Matt Leinart Cards – Cards fans will be saying “I miss Warner. I even miss Josh McCown!”

Josh Freeman Bucs – He has a canon for an arm but has the accuracy of Saddam’s scud missiles. Not a good combination for a team that will behind a lot.

Tarvaris Jackson Vikes – Don’t bother with Jackson. Even if Favre goes down, he won’t help you.

RB

Ryan Grant Packers – He is brittle and he fumbles.

Steven Jackson Rams – He is older, injury prone, and will be playing for a team behind a lot. Not a winning combo for a 1st round rated player.

WR

Percy Harvin Vikes – He is a great player but is having migraines. He may miss large chunks of the season.

Steve Smith Giants – This Steve is hurt. Get an update before drafting him.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Note: We will look at all the divisions of the NFL with this same point of view over the next few issues of Fryingpansports.com.

NFC East

Cowboys

1. Will the new LT be able to protect the blind side of QB Romo? The team cut previous starter Flozell Adams and will try Doug Free and Alex Barron at that critical position. Neither has proven he can be an effective RT let alone face the talented REs around the league.

2. Will the ground game get back to a high level in the running back by committee system? Last year there was too much Jones and not enough Barber. The line was inconsistent and the running game suffered. Beware of taking either of these guys high in your Fantasy Draft.

3. Will former 1st round pick Roy Williams ever be worth what Jerry Jones paid for him in the trade? NO and rookie Dez Bryant will have his spot before week 3 unless the injury takes him our for longer than we think.

Giants

1. Will the D line return to the top of the NFL or repeat a disappointing 2009? Going into last season, the DL was supposed to be a strength. It was not. The Giants replaced DC Bill Sheridan with new DC Perry Fewell. 2008 star DE Osi Umenyiora has been advised to get surgery to fix his hip. How will DE Justin Tuck bounce back from his shoulder injury? The D is going to have to play better and stay healthier than it was in 09.

2. Will the running game return to a high level? In 2009, problems on the O line and at RB caused the running game to disappear during games against Dallas and other top teams. If the Giants are going to become a contender again, the running game is going to have to improve.

3. Can FS Kenny Phillips recover from microfracture knee surgery and will UFA SS Antrel Rolle solidify the last line of defense? The loss of Phillips was a major factor in the D’s decline in 09. Rolle had an off year in 09 for the Cardinals and they were willing to let him go. The D will depend on the S position as much as anything if it is going to become effective again.

Eagles

1. Can QB Kevin Kolb become the QB that the team hopes he can? Probably not this year and it will be a down year for the Birds.

2. Can the running game be resurrected? In a word, no. The Eagles are talking like they have a running game but LeSean McCoy ran out of gas as a part timer last year. With Westbrook gone, he will have to carry the main load.

3. Will the D line produce sacks like they did in the beginning of the season last year? The team traded for DE Darryl Tapp and drafted undersized DE Brandon Graham in the first round. The D line ran out of gas last year. DE Trent Cole is getting older and neither LDT Mike Patterson or RDT Brodrick Bunkley are much of a pass rusher.

Redskins

1. Will Albert Haynesworth settle in at DE? 21M just doesn’t buy as much as it used to. That is what the Redskins paid Haynesworth to play NT but he wasn’t thrilled about being hit by 900+ pounds of OL every play. He lost 25 pounds so that he would be too light to play NT but still couldn’t pass the conditioning drill.

2. How good will the O be with Donovan McNabb at QB? McNabb will be a great improvement over Campbell. But he will really miss the quality receivers he had in Philly.

3. How will the OL protect an aging QB? The bookend pro bowl Ts are gone. The replacements are 4th overall pick LT Trent Williams and ex-Saint RT Jammal Brown. Brown can play LT if needed and is a 2 time pro bowler. Williams is a questionmark.

NFC North

Bears

1. How will QB Jay Cutler preform in OC Mike Martz’s offense? Cutler looked lost in a very simple O last year. Martz’s O depends on timing which has not been a strength of Cutler or the Bear WRs. Look for the Cutler/Martz marriage to end in a quick and ugly divorce.

2. Will the running game recover? 09 starter Matt Forte struggled badly and the lack of blocking up front didn’t help. Ex-Vike Chester Taylor was brought in to compete with Forte but he is not a full time guy at this point in his career either. Beware of these guys in the Fantasy draft as well.

3. Will the DBs finally come around? The coaching staff have been shuffling the lineup in the D backfield more often than they do in Las Vegas. The team has not had good coverage since they finally gave up on the oft-injured S Brown. Getting MLB Brian Urlacher will help a lot because he can cover the deep middle in the 2 deep zone.

Lions

1. How well will 2nd year QB Matthew Stafford play? He was up and down as expected in 09 but should improve with a year of experience. Forget what you hear about better WRs for the Lions. There is Calvin Johnson and a bunch of “never was” guys.

2. Will the team have a running game? 09 starter Kevin Smith is coming back from an ACL. It takes 20 months to fully recover from that injury. Rookie Jahvid Best has talent but there is no indication he can hold up for 16 games. Look for the running game to struggle.

3. How much will the D line be improved by the addition of DT Ndamukong Suh and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch? A lot! Suh is the real deal and has more pass rush than you think. Vanden Bosch is a solid pass rush guy and won’t face as much double teaming as he did last year.

Packers

1. How good will the D be without DT Johnny Jolly the year? That may sound like no big deal but Jolly played more downs than any other D lineman last year. Look for NT Ryan Pickett to move to LE leaving NT B.J. Raji to man the middle. Raji tends to wear down and there isn’t another legitimate NT on the roster if Pickett is not able to play there.

2. Will the O line look as old as it did late last season? LT Chad Clifton got old in a hurry last year. He has to play better. RT Mark Tauscher was OK but beyond that there is nothing special on the line. While there will be some challenges from the bench, there is no real depth there either.

3. Will the conversion to 3-4 continue to go as well as it did last year? The team lost multi-year pro bowl DE turned reluctant LB Aaron Kampman. The left OB looks like a problem with Brad Jones filling in for Kampman. He is solid rushing the passer but does not hold the point of attack against eh run. The rest of the LBs are solid.

Vikings

1. Will the league be able to suspend the Williams boys at DT this year or will the court fightes go on until they retire? Don’t worry Vike fans, they are safe for 2010.

2. Will MLB E.J. Henderson (leg) and CB Cedric Griffin (ACL) be ready for the season? The D suffered when these two went down last year. The biggest value of the great DT play of the Williams boys is that it frees up the LBs to make plays at the line of scrimmage. The loss of Henderson was exposed in the Vikings loss in the playoffs last year.

3. Will QB Brett —? Who cares at this point?

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

NFL

The Browns have announced that Hall of Fame RB Jim Brown and WR Paul Warfield will no longer serve as an advisers to owner Randy Lerner. Given the history of the Browns since the team returned in 1999, the leadership of the team needs all the advice they can get. Both will be missed.

Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger’s biggest test of the suspension is not now going back with the team and participating in the OTAs. The biggest test will be how he completes what the league has asked him to do to reduce the suspension from 6 games to 4. The other half of that test will be how he behaves or misbehaves during the time from the end of the last preseason game until he gets reinstated by the league. Under NFL rules he can have no contact with the team at all during that time except for medical staff as prescribed by the terms of the suspension. If he has another incident like the ones that got him suspended in the past, there could be games added to his “unpaid leave.”

The talk around Dolphin land at their OTA last weekend was all about the passing game. QB Chad Henne has developed nicely after replacing Chad Pennington in 09. The one thing that he needs to improve on in 2010 is his TD to Int ratio. In 09 he threw 12 TDs but 14 picks. He looked even better in the OTAs. However, a lot of “want to be” guys look good in shorts.

Eagle CB Marlin Jackson is out for the season after rupturing an Achilles tendon in the team’s OTA. The team signed Jackson from the Colts to start despite his ending the 09 season on the IR.

Packer CB Al Harris is behind schedule on his recovery from knee surgery that ended his 09 season. He was expected to participate in the OTA last week but is still on the sideline.

Ram S Oshiomogho Atogwe did not sign his tender with the team. On June 1 the Rams could have increased their offer to 7M to keep their exclusive rights for him. They did not. Atogwe is now an unrestricted free agent but the Rams are still hoping they can come to a long term contract with him. He has a history of being a ball hawk. The only question is how much in this economy is he worth. The Packers and Vikings are teams that might be interested.

Lion RB Kevin Smith is not ready to participate in OTAs and will likely start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Players on that list do not count against the roster limits but only qualify if they are hurt away from football or from an injury in the previous season. Players that are on the PUP on the final cutdown day may not be activated until after week 6.

NBA

Game 1 of the Finals goes tonight. The 2-3-2 format puts the stress most on the Celtics. To win the title, in my opinion, they must win one of the first 2 games. The latest on injuries indicates that Celtics PG Rondo will play and is 85-90% while C Perkins is OK. For the Lakers C Bynum is as good as he can be expected to be with his knee problem. He had more than 70 ccs of liquid taken out of the knee on Monday.

MLB

Tampa Bay continues to lead the AL East by 2.5 games over the Yankees. The secret has been a 21-6 record on the road. As long as the pitching holds up, the Rays could be in the race for the duration.

The Twins have built a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central over the Tigers. The Twinkies have been helped by the Tigers going 3-7 over the last 10.

The Rangers lead the AL West but both the As and Angels are coming on. The Rangers were 4-6 over the last 10 while both their pursuers were 6-4.

The two best races in MLB are in the NL. The Central and West divisions are both tight. The Reds and Cards have been trading leads in the Central for a couple of weeks. Last night the Cards beat Cincy 4-1 to climb back into a tie. The Padres have the best mark in the NL with a 32-21 record but only lead the Dodgers by 1 game in the West.

The Tigers traded former All Star P Dontrelle Willis to the Diamondbacks for P Billy Buckner and cash. The Tigers will pay all but the prorated remaining part a minimum veteran contract for Willis in 2010. Despite being a big dollar FA signing in 2008, he has only be able to start 22 games for the Tigers. In 2010 he had a 4.98 ERA and was 1-2 for Detroit.

NHL

The Flyers got back into the finals series with a 4-3 OT win yesterday. The key for Philly will be to win game 4 at home then take game 5 at Chicago. Otherwise, they could be in trouble. The Black Hawks are a lot deeper than the Flyers. As the series goes on, that should give them a real advantage.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Let me start off by saying that I think the Lions missed a marketing opportunity by failing to sign Mike Vick. PETA has guaranteed that it will send around 100 protesters to any stadium in which Vick plays. The Lions could have doubled their attendance if they could have convinced PETA to protest inside Ford Field.

I wanted to see the preseaon game between the Lions and the Falcons because I had not seen the Lions since Thanksgiving Day. They don’t make the nationally televised game often. The one feeling I came away with is that Stafford is the real deal. He is going to put up decent numbers in Fantasy Football.

Stafford can make all the throws and the Lions have sped up his delivery a little. Given the challenges that the team has on the O line, that is a very good thing. Stafford has always been able to read the D and has decent touch. He has an above average arm and the leadership to keep the O focused. He was impressive against a D that made the playoffs last year. I will be amazed if he does not start week 1.

Vet Daunte Culpepper looks healthy for the first time in a while. He is a capable starter and a well above average backup. Culpepper has slimmed down and it has helped him move in the pocket to avoid the rush. Drew Stanton may not make the team.

WR Calvin Johnson can be as good as he wants to be. There is some question about his work ethic. He has all the tools and a couple of QBs that can get the ball to him deep. He has to continue to develop. The new offense stresses timing patterns so he will also have to be more consistent running patterns. The #2 WR is a question mark. Neither Bryant Johnson nor Dennis Northcutt will get the job done well enough to prevent CJ from facing double coverage on every play. One bright spot could be Keary Colbert. Colbert has always been able to get open but he drops too many passes. If he can make the ball his friend, he could become that solid #2. Ronald Curry and Derrick Williams have potential but are far from being good enough now to step into that role. The rest are training camp fodder.

College TEs don’t block much if at all. Rookie Brandon Pettigrew was the best combo TE possessing both some blocking and decent speed and hands. At least he is willing to try to block which even some NFL TEs don’t.

The running game in undergoing a major transition from the Denver zone blocking scheme to a power running game. Last year starter Kevin Smith looked lost in game 1. With the power game you hit the hole that is assigned. Smith was dancing too often waiting for a hole to open. In the NFL those that hesitate are lost. Former Seahawk Maurice Morris may be a better option. The FB is solid with 87 year old Terrelle Smith who still has enough pop to drill a LB in the BOB (back on backer) play.

We know who the Lion Offensive linemen will be. We just not sure how they will play. The starters will be LT Jeff Backus, LG Daniel Loper, C Dominic Raiola, RG Stephen Peterman and RT Gosder Cherilus. Backus is over rated but not too bad. Raiola is solid at C. Cherilus has a lot of potential and is developing nicely. Loper is a first time starter and an unknown quantity. Peterman is a journeyman with limited athleticism but work hard. There is some experience on the bench. Both Ts Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam have started in the league. Jansen was one of the best but has been hurt the last 2 seasons at Washington.

The best thing about the D line is the upside of E Cliff Avril. He is young and athletic. E Dewayne White is solid. Beyond that there are questions all around. In football terms NT Grady Jackson is older than rock and has very little stamina. He does anchor against the run while he has energy but is recovering from a knee problem. T Chuck Darby is nothing special. The Lions were hoping that solid vet E Jared DeVries would be in the rotation but he is on the IR with an Achilles injury and will likely retire. Two reserves with upside are DTs Andre Fluellen and Sammie Hill. Both are nasty and big. They also need to get better conditioned and more instictive.

Vets MLB Larry Foote and SLB Julian Peterson join youngster WLB Ernie Sims in the second line of defense. Peterson must provide pass rush. Foote will be solid in the middle against the run. Jordon Dizon moves outside to better use his speed. DeAndre Levy is the primary inside backup.

The Lions revamped their D backfield again this year. They have a lot of the “P” word—potential. Potential gets more NFL coaches fired than anything else. CB Phillip Buchanon will frustrate you because he has all the tools but doesn’t make many big plays due to bad ball skills. CB Anthony Henry has been around. The Browns determined he was not good enough for their D. Enough said. I really liked FS Louis Delmas in college. The only question is can he adjust to the speed of the NFL game quickly enough? I like SS Daniel Bullocks more than most do. He is solid against the run but must study more tape so that he can overcome some athletic shortcomings with knowledge of the game.

OVERALL: The Lions will be better but when you go 0-16, that’s not saying a lot. They have to solve the problems on the O and D line to be competitive in the NFC North. At the very least the combination of Stafford and Johnson will be fun to watch.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

About half of the 1A college football teams use what can best be categorized as the spread offense as their base set. Florida coach Urban Meyer told reporters that 3 NFL teams came in for a seminar on the theory and practice of the spread. He did not reveal which teams were in attendance.

Meyer’s O has won 2 of the last three titles so he would be the one to ask about the spread. However, we have seen college offenses come and go in the league before. There are several coaches that brought their offensive style to the NFL and for the most part they are now back coaching college teams.

In 1989 both the Lions and the Houston Oilers adopted the run and shoot. The base formation is 1 RB and 4 WRs. Mouse Davis adapted the O from a high school package and installed it for the Oilers. The Lions drafted Houston QB Andre Ware to run their version in Detroit. The attempt failed despite the fact that both teams played in doors at home. The problems were many. The pass rush forced the QB to roll out most of the time. That cut the field in half and allowed the D to roll coverage in the direction of the rollout based on which hand the QB threw with. The running game was not nearly as successful as it had been in college. In an attempt to improve the running game, the Lions widened the splits between the lineman to give the back more room to run. But there just aren’t many 260 pound middle linebackers that can run with the RBs in college. The wider splits allowed the pass rush to get to the QB faster.

In addition, the QBs that ran the R&S in college were not able to read NFL coverages. The success in college depended on quick passes underneath the coverage and run after the catch. The speed of the NFL DBs prevented the long gains that the R&S had generated in college.

In 1992, the Bengals drafted David Klingler QB from U of Houston. Klingler had broken every record in the team and league history but was a flop in the NFL. The Bengals did not have the O line or WRs to make it work.

Former Florida coach Steve Spurrier brought his version of the R&S which was much more like the current spread to Washington in 2002. The Redskins blew out the opposition in the preseason but the NFL figured out the way to defend the scheme and Spurrier went back to college to coach South Carolina after 3 season.

Now with college teams using the spread, some teams are considering a version of it. The QBs coming out are more spread/wild cat style than drop back passers that the traditional NFL offense requires. The spread will not work for the reasons described above plus a few. Offensive system like the one in Florida depend on a QB running threat. QBs are too expensive and fragile to be hit by 340 lb D linemen and 260 lb linebackers.

The other issue is weather. In the cold winds of the north in November and December, if you can’t run you can’t win. Even with a TE replacing one of the WRs, there is not enough blocking at the point of attack to sustain a running game. You need a FB or a second TE to make the running game work consistently. A team in the west or south might make it work at home and early in the season. But when the winds blow up north, you have to be able to run the ball on the road to win enough to keep a coach employed long term.

NFL defenses have figured out the wild cat. It may take a little time, but they will stop the spread as well.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

By Bill Smith

Rumors that we might believe:

The Browns are rethinking their draft away from a WR and more toward a D player. Both BJ Raja (Boston Col) and Brian Orakpo (Texas) seem to be the leaders.

However, the Jets have a deal with Jacksonville to move to the 8^th pick if one of the 3 players they want is still on the board. The Jags want desperately to trade out of 8 to get more picks.

The Pats are looking hard at Clay Matthews OLB USC. They love players with a pedigree and smart guys. Matthews may turn out to be the best of the USC linebackers and he was a walk on in college.

I predict:

Don’t expect the Edwards (WR Cleveland) trade to be completed but a QB deal could be. It looks like the Giant deal is dead.

The deal with The Lions signing QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia) increases the chances that some team will want one of the Browns QBs. Reportedly the Vikes are interested among others.

The Lion’s pick also drives up the value of 3^rd QB Josh Freeman (Kansas St). Look for him to be gone by pick 19 Tampa.

While a number of potential suiters might like to trade up to get QB Mark Sanchez (USC) but he will be taken by Seattle with the 4^th pick. The value of the 3^rd pick 2200 points. That is too much for the Jets at 17 or Tampa at 19 to get to.

ILBs will fall. Both James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) and Rey Maualuga (USC) have fallen to the bottom of the first round or maybe into the second. The value of an ILB is lower than OB and neither of them had a particularly great pro day.

Chris Beanie Wells (RB Ohio State) has fallen but has gotten up. Because of his toe problem and his 40 time early in the draft season he fell to the late 1^st or early 2^nd but he has made a comeback. Look for Wells to be gone no later than 21 to the Eagles.

The Bengals are not worried about the off the field problems that OT Andre Smith (Alabama) had by getting suspended for the Bowl game and quiting at the Combine. The Bengals will take Smith with the 6^th pick unless BJ Raji is there. That might cause them to change players.

Despite the hype a couple of players will under produce based on their draft position.

OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia) is soft. While he will become an outstanding pass blockers, he will never be the run blocker you would expect.

3-4 OLB Brian Orakpo (Texas) is not a pass rush specialist and will disappoint the team that drafts him. He will be a good backer but not the pass rush guy they think they got.

Tyson Jackson DE LSU and Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State will be among the candidates for D rookie of the year.

Rumors that are probably not true:

The NFL has told the Bengals that they must use the no huddle offense in 09. That is only because felons violate their probation if they are within 20 feet of each other.

Detroit seriously considered bringing Mike Vick in as their starting QB and taking an OT with their first pick. That was not because they though Vick was a winner. They knew that PETA would send hundreds of protesters into the stadium and the Lions could use the extra attendance.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.