Let me start off by saying that I think the Lions missed a marketing opportunity by failing to sign Mike Vick. PETA has guaranteed that it will send around 100 protesters to any stadium in which Vick plays. The Lions could have doubled their attendance if they could have convinced PETA to protest inside Ford Field.

I wanted to see the preseaon game between the Lions and the Falcons because I had not seen the Lions since Thanksgiving Day. They don’t make the nationally televised game often. The one feeling I came away with is that Stafford is the real deal. He is going to put up decent numbers in Fantasy Football.

Stafford can make all the throws and the Lions have sped up his delivery a little. Given the challenges that the team has on the O line, that is a very good thing. Stafford has always been able to read the D and has decent touch. He has an above average arm and the leadership to keep the O focused. He was impressive against a D that made the playoffs last year. I will be amazed if he does not start week 1.

Vet Daunte Culpepper looks healthy for the first time in a while. He is a capable starter and a well above average backup. Culpepper has slimmed down and it has helped him move in the pocket to avoid the rush. Drew Stanton may not make the team.

WR Calvin Johnson can be as good as he wants to be. There is some question about his work ethic. He has all the tools and a couple of QBs that can get the ball to him deep. He has to continue to develop. The new offense stresses timing patterns so he will also have to be more consistent running patterns. The #2 WR is a question mark. Neither Bryant Johnson nor Dennis Northcutt will get the job done well enough to prevent CJ from facing double coverage on every play. One bright spot could be Keary Colbert. Colbert has always been able to get open but he drops too many passes. If he can make the ball his friend, he could become that solid #2. Ronald Curry and Derrick Williams have potential but are far from being good enough now to step into that role. The rest are training camp fodder.

College TEs don’t block much if at all. Rookie Brandon Pettigrew was the best combo TE possessing both some blocking and decent speed and hands. At least he is willing to try to block which even some NFL TEs don’t.

The running game in undergoing a major transition from the Denver zone blocking scheme to a power running game. Last year starter Kevin Smith looked lost in game 1. With the power game you hit the hole that is assigned. Smith was dancing too often waiting for a hole to open. In the NFL those that hesitate are lost. Former Seahawk Maurice Morris may be a better option. The FB is solid with 87 year old Terrelle Smith who still has enough pop to drill a LB in the BOB (back on backer) play.

We know who the Lion Offensive linemen will be. We just not sure how they will play. The starters will be LT Jeff Backus, LG Daniel Loper, C Dominic Raiola, RG Stephen Peterman and RT Gosder Cherilus. Backus is over rated but not too bad. Raiola is solid at C. Cherilus has a lot of potential and is developing nicely. Loper is a first time starter and an unknown quantity. Peterman is a journeyman with limited athleticism but work hard. There is some experience on the bench. Both Ts Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam have started in the league. Jansen was one of the best but has been hurt the last 2 seasons at Washington.

The best thing about the D line is the upside of E Cliff Avril. He is young and athletic. E Dewayne White is solid. Beyond that there are questions all around. In football terms NT Grady Jackson is older than rock and has very little stamina. He does anchor against the run while he has energy but is recovering from a knee problem. T Chuck Darby is nothing special. The Lions were hoping that solid vet E Jared DeVries would be in the rotation but he is on the IR with an Achilles injury and will likely retire. Two reserves with upside are DTs Andre Fluellen and Sammie Hill. Both are nasty and big. They also need to get better conditioned and more instictive.

Vets MLB Larry Foote and SLB Julian Peterson join youngster WLB Ernie Sims in the second line of defense. Peterson must provide pass rush. Foote will be solid in the middle against the run. Jordon Dizon moves outside to better use his speed. DeAndre Levy is the primary inside backup.

The Lions revamped their D backfield again this year. They have a lot of the “P” word—potential. Potential gets more NFL coaches fired than anything else. CB Phillip Buchanon will frustrate you because he has all the tools but doesn’t make many big plays due to bad ball skills. CB Anthony Henry has been around. The Browns determined he was not good enough for their D. Enough said. I really liked FS Louis Delmas in college. The only question is can he adjust to the speed of the NFL game quickly enough? I like SS Daniel Bullocks more than most do. He is solid against the run but must study more tape so that he can overcome some athletic shortcomings with knowledge of the game.

OVERALL: The Lions will be better but when you go 0-16, that’s not saying a lot. They have to solve the problems on the O and D line to be competitive in the NFC North. At the very least the combination of Stafford and Johnson will be fun to watch.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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About half of the 1A college football teams use what can best be categorized as the spread offense as their base set. Florida coach Urban Meyer told reporters that 3 NFL teams came in for a seminar on the theory and practice of the spread. He did not reveal which teams were in attendance.

Meyer’s O has won 2 of the last three titles so he would be the one to ask about the spread. However, we have seen college offenses come and go in the league before. There are several coaches that brought their offensive style to the NFL and for the most part they are now back coaching college teams.

In 1989 both the Lions and the Houston Oilers adopted the run and shoot. The base formation is 1 RB and 4 WRs. Mouse Davis adapted the O from a high school package and installed it for the Oilers. The Lions drafted Houston QB Andre Ware to run their version in Detroit. The attempt failed despite the fact that both teams played in doors at home. The problems were many. The pass rush forced the QB to roll out most of the time. That cut the field in half and allowed the D to roll coverage in the direction of the rollout based on which hand the QB threw with. The running game was not nearly as successful as it had been in college. In an attempt to improve the running game, the Lions widened the splits between the lineman to give the back more room to run. But there just aren’t many 260 pound middle linebackers that can run with the RBs in college. The wider splits allowed the pass rush to get to the QB faster.

In addition, the QBs that ran the R&S in college were not able to read NFL coverages. The success in college depended on quick passes underneath the coverage and run after the catch. The speed of the NFL DBs prevented the long gains that the R&S had generated in college.

In 1992, the Bengals drafted David Klingler QB from U of Houston. Klingler had broken every record in the team and league history but was a flop in the NFL. The Bengals did not have the O line or WRs to make it work.

Former Florida coach Steve Spurrier brought his version of the R&S which was much more like the current spread to Washington in 2002. The Redskins blew out the opposition in the preseason but the NFL figured out the way to defend the scheme and Spurrier went back to college to coach South Carolina after 3 season.

Now with college teams using the spread, some teams are considering a version of it. The QBs coming out are more spread/wild cat style than drop back passers that the traditional NFL offense requires. The spread will not work for the reasons described above plus a few. Offensive system like the one in Florida depend on a QB running threat. QBs are too expensive and fragile to be hit by 340 lb D linemen and 260 lb linebackers.

The other issue is weather. In the cold winds of the north in November and December, if you can’t run you can’t win. Even with a TE replacing one of the WRs, there is not enough blocking at the point of attack to sustain a running game. You need a FB or a second TE to make the running game work consistently. A team in the west or south might make it work at home and early in the season. But when the winds blow up north, you have to be able to run the ball on the road to win enough to keep a coach employed long term.

NFL defenses have figured out the wild cat. It may take a little time, but they will stop the spread as well.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• Saturday Niblets from around the net for 03/07/09

By Bill Smith

Rumors that we might believe:

The Browns are rethinking their draft away from a WR and more toward a D player. Both BJ Raja (Boston Col) and Brian Orakpo (Texas) seem to be the leaders.

However, the Jets have a deal with Jacksonville to move to the 8^th pick if one of the 3 players they want is still on the board. The Jags want desperately to trade out of 8 to get more picks.

The Pats are looking hard at Clay Matthews OLB USC. They love players with a pedigree and smart guys. Matthews may turn out to be the best of the USC linebackers and he was a walk on in college.

I predict:

Don’t expect the Edwards (WR Cleveland) trade to be completed but a QB deal could be. It looks like the Giant deal is dead.

The deal with The Lions signing QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia) increases the chances that some team will want one of the Browns QBs. Reportedly the Vikes are interested among others.

The Lion’s pick also drives up the value of 3^rd QB Josh Freeman (Kansas St). Look for him to be gone by pick 19 Tampa.

While a number of potential suiters might like to trade up to get QB Mark Sanchez (USC) but he will be taken by Seattle with the 4^th pick. The value of the 3^rd pick 2200 points. That is too much for the Jets at 17 or Tampa at 19 to get to.

ILBs will fall. Both James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) and Rey Maualuga (USC) have fallen to the bottom of the first round or maybe into the second. The value of an ILB is lower than OB and neither of them had a particularly great pro day.

Chris Beanie Wells (RB Ohio State) has fallen but has gotten up. Because of his toe problem and his 40 time early in the draft season he fell to the late 1^st or early 2^nd but he has made a comeback. Look for Wells to be gone no later than 21 to the Eagles.

The Bengals are not worried about the off the field problems that OT Andre Smith (Alabama) had by getting suspended for the Bowl game and quiting at the Combine. The Bengals will take Smith with the 6^th pick unless BJ Raji is there. That might cause them to change players.

Despite the hype a couple of players will under produce based on their draft position.

OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia) is soft. While he will become an outstanding pass blockers, he will never be the run blocker you would expect.

3-4 OLB Brian Orakpo (Texas) is not a pass rush specialist and will disappoint the team that drafts him. He will be a good backer but not the pass rush guy they think they got.

Tyson Jackson DE LSU and Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State will be among the candidates for D rookie of the year.

Rumors that are probably not true:

The NFL has told the Bengals that they must use the no huddle offense in 09. That is only because felons violate their probation if they are within 20 feet of each other.

Detroit seriously considered bringing Mike Vick in as their starting QB and taking an OT with their first pick. That was not because they though Vick was a winner. They knew that PETA would send hundreds of protesters into the stadium and the Lions could use the extra attendance.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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• Is Sam Bradford making a mistake by staying at Oklahoma?

Fryingpan Sports

Don’t get too excited about a 3 team deal involving Jay Cutler and the Browns.

By Bill Smith

There is a lot of talk about the Browns being the point guard in a three way deal for Denver QB Jay Cutler. Not so fast, my friend. There are more than a couple chuck holes between Cleveland and anywhere Cutler is liable to end up.

The trade chatter has Brown’s QB Brady Quinn going to Denver, Cutler going to Detroit, Tampa, Seattle, or the Jets, and a covey of draft choices coming to the Browns. There are a covey of problems with that scenario.

1. There is no way that Denver gives up a semi-proven QB with a pro bowl and 37 starts in the NFL over 3 seasons in exchange for Quinn and his 3 starts and 65.8 passer rating. The Broncos will want Quinn and a high draft pick (late 1 or very early 2) to make that deal.

1. Tampa is out of the contest because they don’t have a second. They traded it to Cleveland for TE Kelvin Winslow. They would give up their 1 for Cutler but that would have to go to Denver to complete the Cutler deal.

1. Even if Tampa’s 1 came to Cleveland, the Browns would have to give at least one of their 2 second round picks to Denver and possibly both. That would net the Browns the equivalent of a third round pick (the difference between a middle first and a middle 2^nd round pick) in exchange for Quinn. That is not a deal that I would make.

1. I hear the QB Derek Anderson fans chanting now—what about DA? In my opinion, Denver would not accept DA plus a draft choice in exchange for Cutler. I can see them only taking Quinn because he was tutored in college by Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. Weis has Patriot roots and new Bronco coach Josh McDaniel will employ a very similar offense to that of Weis.

So despite the chatter, don’t get too excited. I can’t see any way in which a three way deal could net the Browns anything close to value for Quinn because Denver would want more than Quinn in exchange for Cutler.

There is a possibility of a direct deal with Detroit or the Jets. Quinn for the Dallas pick the Lions own (#22) would make some sense as would the Quinn for the Jets 1 at #17. I am not sure either team would make that deal but the Lions might not be too excited about either rookie QB and want to use the first overall pick for an OT.

The Jets would love anybody that even looked like an NFL quality QB. A more likely deal would be made after the draft if the Jets can’t get either top rated rookie QB. They would be willing to trade a 1 in 2010 for Quinn. That would not be a good deal for the Browns because Quinn’s value would then be the equivalent of a second round pick this year.

The Jets might take Anderson with his big arm in exchange for a 2010 first round pick if they don’t get something they like in the 09 draft. Given the winds in New York in December, Anderson would be a better choice for the Jets than Quinn. The Browns and Jets might do a deal for a second this year and conditional 2^nd or 3^rd next year for Anderson depending on how he performs.

In any 3 team deal, if the Browns try to be the middle man, they will end up in the middle of a mess.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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• KC’s trade for QB Cassel resulted in some unforeseen repercussions.

Fryingpan Sports

Saturday Niblets from around the net for 03/07/09

By Bill Smith

Best comment of the week from Jack Lochrie [Long-suffering Lions fan]

on Beware of the Combine Warrior‏

I have some unsolicited advice for the Lions: Ignore all of the underclassmen in the April college draft, regardless of their assumed future potential and press clippings. The seniors have an extra year or two of maturity growth that will serve them well in the teeny, tiny, remote possibility they will need to cope with some setbacks in their early years with the Lions. The Lions’s management needs to be focusing on building a winning team, without the distraction of providing day care for fragile egos.

Note: Martin Mayhew has not yet called me for my objective opinions on the draft. ;~)

Updates on previous articles:

On KC’s trade for QB Cassel resulted in some unforeseen repercussions.

Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels said the team will not trade QB Jay Cutler. “Let me be as clear as I can about this. We are not trading Jay Cutler – period,” McDaniels said. McDaniels will meet with QB Jay Cutler next week.

My Analysis: Josh, you might want to put your foot back in your mouth. Your comment would have a lot more credibility if you had not participated in the home version of “Let’s make a deal.” The Broncos had a huge locker room problem with the firing of Mike Shanahan. Josh if you can’t put out the fire, at least stop throwing gas on it.

On Major League Baseball gets “BALCOed” right between the eyes

Alex Rodriguez now has a torn labrum, is considering surgery that would cause him to miss some time. The furor over the admission that he used steroids had just begun to subside and then this news hit the wire. He may decide to try to play through the injury but that will likely reduce his productivity.

My Analysis: The official Yankee position is that A-Rod would miss 10 weeks if he had the surgery. Fantasy fans that drafted him already should be prepared to see him out until the All Star game. Hopefully he will not use steroids to get back sooner.

Barry “Balco” Bonds who will be 45 this year wants to make a comeback. His agent is trying to find a team that will sign him. The only reason he is available is that his purgery trial has been postponed so he won’t be wearing prison stripes this season.

My Analysis: Barry, don’t make things worse. Stay out of the game. Haven’t you done enough to hurt the game that did so much for you?

On My impressions of the first 2 days of the NFL Combine.

WR Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech has decided to have surgery on his foot now. This is a good move and the lack of an official 40 time should not hurt his draft stock too much.

On Will Vince Young ever be an NFL quality QB?

Major Adams, agent for Young, says that Vince wants to regain the starting position for the Titans again. “He is preparing like he is going to start.”

My Analysis: Well DAH! Vince, you can prepare all you want but until you learn to read coverages and the playbook, you will be a VERY expensive backup.

Beckham is coming back—Yeah?

David Beckham is reportedly coming back to the LA Galaxy after the AC Milan season is over. He has missed over half the season and has violated the “lending” agreement between the two teams in which he was supposed to be back to LA on Monday.

My Advice: DON’T BOTHER. Nobody cares, David. Stay in Europe and keep your over hyped wife there too.

Florida State will be penalized by the NCAA

FSU will be penalized for student athletes cheating on an on-line test. The penalty will affect all FSU sports and will cost the football team scholarships, a 4 year probation, and some wins off their record. According to a release by the NCAA Bobby Bowden who was not personally implicated in the scandal could lose as many as 14 wins in his race the Joe Paterno for the all time record for college wins. 67 players in 10 sports were involved. Virtually all the FSU sports are involved including the womens programs. According to the NCAA, the violations go back to 2006. FSU says it will oppose any loss of wins or championships.

Why the Cardinals REALLY needed to get Warner resigned:

Bill Kipouras, of The Salem News reported on a conversation with QB Brian St. Pierre about his position with the team. “I got a raise and (Whisenhunt) said he’d let me compete with Matt Leinart for the No. 2 job,” St. Pierre said. “I trust the coach. I’ve enjoyed him, and my wife Joceyln and I both love Arizona. It’s he best decision we could have made.”

My Advice: If Coach Whisenhunt thinks St. Pierre is competitive with Leinart, the team needs to start looking soon for a QB of the future. St. Pierre has no future in the league what so ever. If Leinart is in the same class, he doesn’t either.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

KC’s trade for QB Cassel resulted in some unforeseen repercussions.

By Bill Smith

No one was surprised that ex-Patriot personnel guy Scott Pioli traded to get a couple of his former players to add some leadership to the Chiefs. Based on how the team played last year, it can use all the leadership Pioli can gather. When he landed QB Matt Cassel, Pioli caused ripples through the NFL.

The Lions now have some options at 1^st choice:

While there are several teams that would like a QB, the Jets at 17 now look like the only one willing to spend a 1^st round pick on one of the 2 top QB (Matt Stafford, Georgia and Mark Sanchez, USC).

While the majority of mock drafts have the Lions taking Stafford or Sanchez with the first pick, I am not at all sure that is a lock. I would not be surprised if the Lions took a chance and drafted an OT with the first pick then used the 22^nd pick from the Cowboys to take whichever QB is left.

That would give the Lions a chance to keep their QB upright whoever that might be. It would also reduce the risk of taking a junior QB with the first pick. The history of that has not been positive. The risk and the cost of a QB at 22 would be significantly lower.

The NFL may look into the Cassel deal for insider trading:

Ex-Pat Pioli got a heck of a deal—in fact he may have gotten the steal of the century so far. The Chiefs reportedly got Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel for a second round choice. There were several teams that have reported that they would have given the Pats more than that for Cassel alone. The current rumor is that the NFL may look into the deal for the football equivalent of insider trading given the close relationship between Pioli and the Pats.

Ripples shake the Broncos:

New Denver head coach Josh McDaniels who was the OC for the Pats last year also wanted Matt Cassel. He was busy trying to pull off a three team deal that would have sent last year starter for the Broncos Jay Cutler to Tampa or another team in order to bring Cassel to Denver. When that was leaked, the Bronco fans were shocked but Cutler seemed to handle it as well as could be expected.

He was reported to have told the press that he was not shocked but very disappointed that his new coach would trade him away.

My Analysis: It was not a secret that he was very upset at the firing of former HC Mike Shanahan. The fact that McDaniels wanted to trade him has not made Cutler more comfortable in Denver. The relationship between coach and QB was already strained. Now McDaniels has to do something to fix it before the season. This was a stupid move by a rookie coach. You just don’t do something like that to a franchise quarterback and expect it not to get leaked. McDaniels has to engage brain before activating mouth.

New coach, new GM, same old Bucs:

The Bucs are still collecting QBs the way that some people collect stamps. According to reports from several sources, new Tampa Bucs GM Mark Dominik and new HC Raheem Morris made it clear they wanted Cutler. They were one of the trade partners for Denver to help the Broncos get Cassel.

My Analysis: If you have a covey of QBs, you don’t have any. The Bucs had a serviceable QB in Jeff Garcia but he was not what the new staff wanted. Do you really think Brian Griese or Josh Johnson can lead you anywhere but to a high draft choice next year? Probably not.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

Related Posts:

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• AFC Draft winners and losers
• Should the Lions draft QB Matt Stafford with the first pick?
• Is Sam Bradford making a mistake by staying at Oklahoma?

Fryingpan Sports

Saturday’s nibblets around the net.

By Bill Smith

BEST COMMENT OF THE WEEK–

Ted Payne posted this:

Well let’s be honest – guys like him are SCARED. They are legitimately scared of bloggers.

I mean each team can have a hometown blogger, bloggers that are dedicated to one team even. How can traditional journalists compete with that? Bloggers might not have the access of these top ESPN guys, but they can watch one team day in and day out, Albom can NOT do that.

Sports reporters are scared that one day, they won’t have a job, because people will turn to their local bloggers.

Ted, you are exactly right. The new media including the Internet bloggers scare them to death. Thanks for the support and I hope you become a regular reader. We will try to post the best comment each week.

Political Correctness run a muck.

Our old pinhead friends at the NCAA rules committee are thinking about making the touchdown celebration a “live ball” penalty rather than a “dead ball” foul. The difference is that a live ball foul is stepped off from the previous spot and takes the score off the board! I don’t have a problem with a penalty if a player throws the ball at an opponent. But we are talking about 19-22 year old kids that love the game they play.

The first thing that the official will say is that the player is calling attention to himself when he celebrates alone. But then when he celebrates with his team mates, the pinhead zebras say that the celebration was premeditated and organized. That isn’t allowed either.

My Advice: Let the kids have fun and forget the live ball foul. While you’re at it, forget the the dead ball penalty as well.

Mike Martz can’t find a job.

Martz complained to Tom E. Curran, of NBCSports.com that he is being kept from getting a new job as O Coordinator by people saying negative things about him. “”People are determined to keep me out of the league. It’s been going on for three years and at this point, I can’t fight it. I just can’t fight it. Three years of people putting it out there that I’m a high-maintenance lunatic.”

My Advice: Mikey, let it go. Maybe it is the quarterbacks that you almost got killed with your 5 receivers in the pattern style offense that are keeping you down. No one trusts you with their franchise QB. Change your offense and maybe you’ll get work.

Bret Favre retired—again.

This time I think we have seen the last of Favre. He was a great player and we respect that. He struggled in the last half of the season with the Jets and is physically done.

My Advice: Bret go back on your plantation and we will see you again in 5 years and hand you the yellow jacket and your bust in the Hall of Fame. But we don’t want to hear about you or see you until then. Frankly, you exhausted us with your “will he stay or will he retire” dance routine over the last few years. Enjoy your retirement because you deserve it. Just leave us alone.

Kurt Warner says he will keep an open mind about where to play next year.

Warner had decided that if he gets a contract he likes he will play next year. He also has told many outlets that he and his family like Arizona. However, he said that he will keep an open mind if the Cardinals don’t come up with a reasonable offer.

My Advice: Kurt, I am not a Viking fan but there you would have a D that is ready to win now and an O line that will give you a lot better protection than you get now. Plus they play 9 games a year inside.

QB JaMarcus Russell has minor surgery on his ankle.

Russell has hinted that his accuracy problems were partially due to his bad ankle that prevented him from pushing off properly. Dah!

My Advice: JR, while you’re sitting down waiting for the ankle to heal, watch some tape. You need to make better decisions. Then go throw a couple of hundred passes a day until you can throw the ball into a coffee can from 25 yards. Your problem is not your ankle, it is your head and your footwork.

Percy Harvin, Florida is not a first round pick in my book.

Harvin is small and fast. But he doesn’t really have a position on the team other than spot 3^rd down receiver and special teams player. He can maybe play the slot for a 3 wide team but that is about it. It is hard for a team to be successful drafting a player in the first round that is on the field less than full time. Just ask the Saints with Reggie Bush, or the Cowboys with Felix Jones.

My Advice: Harvin is compared incorrectly to last year sensation tiny DeSean Jackson. The difference is that Jackson was a polished receiver running disciplined routes and had very soft hands. Harvin is an athlete. He has not had enough experience at routes and will take a lot of coaching to even determine if he can be a slot receiver. He is a late 2^nd or 3^rd round value.

The Falcons want to trade Michael Vick.

The Falcons Owner and CEO Arthur Blank told a news conference that he wanted to trade the rights to QB Michael Vick if and when Vick is reinstated by the NFL. There are a couple of problems with that. First, he will be 29 this year when he is released from prison to a half way house. There is a good chance that he will have to spend a couple of years suspension after he gets out of jail. So he will be 31 or 32 and will not have played for 5 years.

There is also the issue of his contract. It is huge. No team is going to take the PR hit of Vick on their team, pay the price of the current contract and give the Falcons a draft choice for the pleasure of having demonstrations outside the stadium by PETA every game day.

My Advice: Art, call the Lions and offer Vick and a draft choice for a couple of used footballs. They will take the deal because they could use a few PETA people paying admission so they can carry signs inside the stadium. That will insure some paying customers anyway.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

Related Posts:

• Is Sam Bradford making a mistake by staying at Oklahoma?
• Saturday Niblets from around the net for 03/07/09
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• A Few Good NFL Stories of 2008 season.
• ANALYSIS: What do you do with a young benched starting QB?

Fryingpan Sports

Should the Lions draft QB Matt Stafford with the first pick?

By Bill Smith

The Lions need a QB badly. The starter on their depth chart is Dan Orlovsky. In 4 seasons he has a QB rating of 71.8 with 8 TDs and 8 picks. Not good. Behind him is second year QB Drew Stanton but he was very inconsistent at Michigan State and has thrown only 17 passes in the NFL. Then there is the 3^rd QB Drew Henson. Henson was a better baseball player than QB and was cut by a couple of baseball organizations. His football career included one start for the Pre-Romo Cowboys in 04 but he QB rating of 64.2 doesn’t impress anyone.

So according to reports the team is going to take a QB with the first pick. Maybe that sounded like a good idea when there were 4 good prospects in the race for the top QB in the draft. But Sam Bradford went back to Oklahoma and Colt McCoy went back to Texas. That left only Stafford and one year starter Mark Sanchez from USC as the candidates for the top QB.

When you go 0-16, one guy is not going to turn your team around. So don’t be surprised if they try to trade the pick. Trading first round picks doesn’t happen too often. Trading 1^st overall picks almost never happens. There are several problems. First, the amount of assets necessary to give anything close to equal value for a 1^st overall pick is overwhelming. According to the draft chart first used by the Cowboys but now accepted as a good guide the 1^st pick is worth 3000 points. Even if you have the 10^th pick this year, it would cost you your #1, 2, 3, 4, 5 picks this year your 1, 2, and 3 next year and a young veteran starter. The Lions would love to take that but no GM could keep his job and make that deal.

Even if you could get by that problem with a number of quality young starters to replace the draft choices, there is the financial investment in the top overall pick. Jake Long, the OT from Michigan taken 1^st overall by the Dolphins in the 08 draft got a contract worth 57 million dollars. A quarterback would be 10 to 15 percent higher. In addition, the 1^st pick in 09 will probably get a 12% increase over 08 due to the expected increase in salary cap. That would mean that a QB as #1 should get a 5 year contract worth between 70 and 74.5 million dollars. He had better be another Payton Manning for that kind of coin.

So don’t expect the Lions to trade. Now the question is who do you pick. Miami went O line because you have a much smaller chance of a total bust with that position than QB or D line. Then there is the issue of which QB is the best choice.

Stafford is currently the flavor of the month as the top pick. As a three year starter, Stafford has a lot of college game experience. He played in the Southeast Conference which is a top league. He has great arm strength. He improved his completion percentage each season from 52.7% in 06 to 61.4% in 08. But then you watch film, you come away with some serious doubts.

He makes one throw that is incredible, followed by forcing the ball into tight coverage and an interception. Part of the problem is mechanical. He struggles with footwork and his throwing mechanics are inconsistent. He also does not seem to have the feet to move away from the pass rush and keep the play alive. He will have to learn that or be in serious trouble. The Lions line is not among the best in the NFL to say the least.

There is a question of mental toughness. Several times in the games I saw, he took the sack rather than standing up against the rush. You would like your big strong QB to keep his eyes down field and make the play as he was getting hit. That raises the question does he have the vision to an NFL franchise QB? That question will be answered only as he plays in the regular season.

Mechanics can be corrected with practice. A much more disturbing facet of his game is decision making. He has so much confidence in his arm he tires to make throws in college that are doomed to incompletion or interception before he releases the ball. In the NFL, the windows are much much smaller and the risk of interception is a lot higher. The Bulldogs were much better than all but 2 of the teams they played every year. Even so, he had a very uneven performance against some better teams.

The best corners he faced in the SEC were almost as good as the weakest ones he will face every week in the NFL. As you can tell, I am not convinced he can be a franchise QB at the NFL level and to give him 74 million over 5 years would be a mistake.

So, maybe the Lions should consider taking the other QB rated high in the draft—Mark Sanchez from USC. The NFL is very cautious about drafting a QB that only started 1 season. For Sanchez, my greatest concern is that he sat 2 seasons behind John David Booty who was taken in the 5^th round by the Vikings with the 147^th pick. If he couldn’t beat out Booty, is he really worthy of a first round pick let alone the first overall pick? I don’t think so. I will detail the scouting report on Sanchez in the future. For now, every time I hear someone talk about Sanchez, I hear the name Akili Smith the third pick in the 1999 draft. He had one great year with Oregon in the Pac10 as well. Look how nicely that turned out.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Fryingpan Sports

Are teams better off with first time coaches

By Bill Smith

Up until a couple of years ago, NFL owners that were in need of a coach overwhelmingly chose older guys with previous head coaching experience. Then in 2007 things seemed to change. First time HCs seemed to be in vogue.

Mike Smith was the defensive coordinator of the Jaguars from 2003-07. He was not exactly a young first time HC but a first time HC none the less. He was 47 when he was selected as head coach for the Atlanta Falcons. In his first year he led the team which had been 4-12 to the playoffs in 08 and a 11-5 record. He and rookie QB Matt Ryan also helped erase the stain that Mike Vick had caused to the franchise.

In January of 2008, the 1-15 Miami Dolphins hired Tony Sparano as head coach. He had coached the O line for the Cowboys and had 3 years as assistant head coach. He led one of the most inept teams in NFL history to 11-5 and the AFC East championship. Sparano had help. Bill Parcells joined the team as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations for the Miami Dolphins and helped transform the roster.

Also in January 2008, John Harbaugh, another first time coach was hired in Baltimore. His background was 9 years as special teams coach and one season as secondary coach for the Eagles. He inherited a winning team that fallen to 5-11 in 07 from a 13-3 record in 06. When the starting and back up went down QB, Harbaugh turned to a rookie 1^st round choice Joe Flacco. The two led the Ravens to 11-5 record and a wild card spot in the playoffs.

On Jan. 14, 2007 Ken Whisenhunt was hired as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. In 2006 the team had been 5-11 and last in the weak NFC West. In 08 he got the team to 8-8 and second place behind the Seahawks. In 2008 he led the team to 9-7, a NFC West championship and 2 playoff wins. He had been the offensive coordinator of the Steelers for 3 years.

These 4 have had significant success in most cases with a less than quality team. However, two things must be mentioned. First, the record of this group of first time head coaches is not the norm. In total, first year HCs have had a pretty lack luster history. Second, while quick success is nice, will it last? All NFL coaches will be fired at some point. Even those in the Hall of Fame like Paul Brown have been sent packing at some point.

The newest round of hirings of head coaches include both first time HCs and retreads. The Browns hired Eric Mangini who had been fired by the Jets a few days before. My crystal ball tells me that Mangini will do OK and OK will be a great improvement over Romeo Crennel who had no head coaching experience before taking the Browns even further down the tubes. But there are a number of retread coaches with HC experience that are looking for work. Those names include Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan, and Brian Billick all of whom have won Super Bowls. But these 4 teams decided to go the rookie HC route.

Tampa Bay picked Raheem Morris yesterday one day after firing Jon Gruden. Morris who is 32 was discussed yesterday morning on this site. My guess is that Tampa will struggle. Morris had just been selected to be D coordinator and went to get a hair cut for his news conference. When he arrived back at 1 Buccaneer Place, he was the head coach. The Glazer’s said in a press conference that one of the primary reason they selected Morris was that he could relate to the players. That is not the question. The real issue is does he have enough experience to get the respect of the players. Players can tell in the first 10 minutes of the first practice if a coach knows his stuff or not. If Morris isn’t up to the job, the veteran team will eat him alive whether they like him or not. I think Tampa fans are in for a disappointment.

The St. Louis Rams hired Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo as their first time HC. Reportedly, Rex Ryan DC of the Ravens was the teams first choice but owner Chip Rosenbloom decided not to wait for Baltimore to be eliminated from the playoffs. Rosenbloom was also worried that Ryan might opt for the Jets job over that of the Lambs. Spags deserved a lot of credit for the victory of the Giants over the Pats in the Super Bowl. But Spags has only one year of DC experience. Prior to that he had spent 8 years as a defensive position coach with the Eagles. Again I am not convinced he can turn the 2-14 St. Louis Lambs around. While Spags was the top candidate for several jobs, he just doesn’t have the depth of experience to get the most out of a team in desperate need of rebuilding.

Perhaps the best bet to keep his job for more than 4 years is the new head coach of the Lions, Jim Schwartz the Titans defensive coordinator. Schwartz can only hope that the Ford family will give him as many chances as they did for Matt “watch me mess up a franchise” Millen the former GM. Schwartz takes over a team that was historically horrible. It was the only team in NFL history to go 0-16 in a regular season. The biggest problem Schwartz has is the lack of talent both on the field and in the upper management positions of the team. The new executive leadership of the Lions is now in the hands of Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew. Mayhew was the former assistant GM and Lewand was promoted to executive vice president and chief operating officer February 1, 2003. His duties included football administration and player development. In the last 5 season, there has been very little of either. Both of these guys were there while Millen was allowed to run a muck with the roster. That is not a good sign for all 26 Lions fans. Neither of these guys seemed to have enough guts or power to convince the Fords to dump Millen years ago. Millen’s Lions produced the worst 8 year record in NFL history. Those long term problems are not going to be solved by those that were accessories to the carnage. Schwartz has an excellent reputation around the NFL. He was DC with Tennessee for 6 years leading the team to a top 10 finish statistically in almost all those seasons. The Titan defense ended up second in scoring D this season. Defense will be an entirely new concept in Detroit. They haven’t had one in years.

The Broncos replaced Mike Shanahan with Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels had been the Pats OC for only 2 seasons. McDaniels helped fine tune the Pats 07 offense into the highest scoring teams in NFL history. I am sure that having Tom Brady as your QB and Randy Moss and Wes Welker at WR really helped. However, he did have a direct effect on Matt Cassel’s success this season. Of the newbies, I think McDaniels might have the best chance. Unlike when Mangini was hired by the Jets, Bill Belichick gave McDaniels a glowing public reference and wished him the best. However, I am sure that does not include games against the Pats. I expect McDaniels to be fairly successful. However, the Broncos are going to have to get a lot better on defense and more consistent play from their offense to get back to the playoffs.

There are a lot of factors in turning a bad team around. One of the most important is getting the maximum performance out of the talent a coach has. Only time will tell whether the teams that hired first time HC made the right decision. If I am wrong, I will let you know. If they are wrong, it will set their franchises back years.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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• Before you fire your head coach…
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Fryingpan Sports

Is Sam Bradford making a mistake by staying at Oklahoma?

By Bill Smith

In a previous article I wrote that Tim Tebow made a great decision by staying at Florida. He was going to be a 2^nd or 3^rd round choice this year but could work his way into the first round with a strong senior year. However, I believe that Oklahoma QB Bradford is making a mistake by staying.

I am reminded of QB Matt Leinart of USC. He would have been the first overall pick had he come out as a junior. But he stayed in school for his senior year and fell to the 10^th pick overall in the 2006 draft. Alex Smith from Utah was the first pick of the 49ers. That decision cost Leinart 3.5 million dollars over the first 3 years of his contract.

There is only one first round QB in the 2009 draft—Matt Stafford of Georgia. While USC’s QB Mark Sanchez will probably be drafted in the first round, at this point I don’t see him as a 1^st round talent. QB Akili Smith from Oregon started only one year in the Pac-10 and look how well that turned out for the Bengals.

With no less than 14 teams needing either starting or backup QBs, the need will never be greater and the supply seldom lower. [You can see the list on NFLDraftDog.com in my column about the Browns.] In my opinion, Bradford would have been either the first pick by Detroit or the third pick by Kansas City. Bradford would have taken over the top QB ranking at the combine.

Bradford has better accuracy than Stafford but slightly less arm strength. I’m not big on arm strength. Both Vince Young of Tennessee and JaMarcus Russell of Oakland have great arm strength but couldn’t hit snow if they were passing from the North Pole. The NFL has seen dozens of strong armed QBs crash and burn over the last few years. Joe Montana had average arm strength but it got stronger from lifting so many championship trophies.

Bradford is more of a pocket passer than Stafford and has a little more experience throwing after taking snaps from under center than Stafford. That should translate into less trouble mastering the 3, 5, and 7 step drops so critical to developing accuracy in the NFL. Bradford processes information quickly and is accurate. He completed 68% of his passes with 50 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Stafford is very inconsistent. Even though he has the better team in all but a hand full of games Georgia played, he still often throws interceptions in critical points in the game. He is not nearly as accurate as Bradford completing 61% of his throws but having only 25 TDs and 10 interceptions.

The risk is that Bradford’s stock will drop in his senior year. He loses WRs Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson, and probably Jr. TE Jermaine Gresham. While he will still have some good targets, chances are they will not as good or as consistent as those three. They should all be drafted in the first 3 rounds. He will also be missing at least two of his interior linemen Duke Robinson and Brandon Walker as well as his best tackle Phil Loadholt.

Given all the talent the Sooners will lose, it would make more sense to come out now. He will be running for his life whichever bad NFL team he goes to in 2010 and may have to run from less than optimum pass protection next year at Oklahoma. He might as well get paid to do it.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for NFLDraftDog.com and edits fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Related Posts:

• Saturday’s nibblets around the net for 02/15/09.
• A Few Good NFL Stories of 2008 season.
• Saturday Niblets from around the net for 03/07/09
• Saturday Niblets for 6/6/09
• ANALYSIS: What do you do with a young benched starting QB?