Baseball Heads Down the Back Stretch

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all star game 2010

Baseball Heads Down the Back Stretch

Now that the All Star game is over, we need to take a look at the standings and project what might happen from this point to the final weeks of the season.

The trading deadline is coming up and there are a few names floating around that could help a contender. Some deals have already been made. The biggest deal was SP Cliff Lee going to the division leading Rangers. He gives the team the one thing they did not really have–a true #1 starter. Even with the team’s financial problems, they decided to go for it all this year.

The Jays and Braves traded SS with Alex Gonzalez going south in a five-player deal along with 2 minor leaguers for SS Yunel Escobar and LHP Jo-Jo Reyes. The Braves needed a little more O and Gonzalez should help. Escobar has been at best inconsistent.

The Jays are in 4th in the tough AL East and have put out the word that RPs Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are available. They are looking to build for next year. Several teams might be interested in Gregg who has converted 20 of 23 save opportunities.

SP Roy Oswalt is the most attractive guy out there. The White Sox are looking at him but he is 32 and is scheduled to get 16M in 2011 and 12.

AL East

The Yanks are leading and Rays are still close just 2 games behind. Both went 8-2 before the break. The Red Sox have fallen and can’t seem to get up. They went 4-6 in the last 10 and are 5 games behind. With all the Sox injuries, it is less and less likely that they can keep up.

AL Central

The White Sox lead by just a half game over the Tigers. The Sox are depending on pitching and the long ball because they are hitting just .257 as a team. They are 3rd in home runs with 100. The Tigers are hitting .275.

AL West

Texas has a 4.5 game lead over the Angels. The Rangers have the best lead in the AL and Lee will only help them win the division. Beyond that who knows.

NL East

The Braves have profited from the Mets stumble over the last 10. The Braves expended the lead to 4 games by going 7-3 while the Mets went 4-6.

NL Central

The Reds have a been traded places with the Cards all season. That will continue as long as the Reds pitching holds up. It won’t and the Reds will fall out of the race in the middle of August. Nobody else in the division is a factor.

NL West

The Padres are 2 games ahead of the Rockies but need both a pitcher and a bat. They won’t get either before the trading deadline but still should hold on to win the NL Weak.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on  and edits .

Technorati Tags: MLB,MLB Playoffs,Oswald,Lee,Yankees,Rays,Red Sox,Tigers,White Sox,Rangers,Angels,Braves,Mets,Reds,Cardinals,Padres,Rockies

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What to look for Sunday in the Wild Card round.

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nfl

Ravens @ Pats

Ravens

The Ravens turned their season around about 5 weeks ago. Prior to week 12 they were a pass first run second team. The team was putting too much pressure on QB Flacco asking him to win the game rather than be just part of a balanced O. From game 13 on the Ravs were in their heavy set (2TE) 34% of their snaps. That allowed them to run the ball much more effectively. RBs Rice and McGahee were devastating. In the final game McGahee ran for 167 yards. Rice will be key as a receiver as well as a runner. The Pats LBs have real trouble covering a back and Rice is an outstanding receiver.

The running has helped the passing game. In the last 4 games, Flacco has thrown for 7 TDs with just 1 pick. That is key for the Ravs. They need to be able to keep the Pat D from loading up the box. A couple of play action passes will do that.

The Raven D is not what it has been over the last few years in part because of injuries. They have struggled to cover the inside routes. Their pass D has been the key weakness on the team in recent games. The injury situation got a lot better because DT Ngata will start after having a full practice Thursday. He was limited on Wednesday. The pass D will be vastly improved if FS Reed can recover from a groin injury and start after having a full practice Thursday. Those two make a huge difference. Noga takes up 2 and sometimes 3 blockers which frees the LBs to run to the ball. Reed in the backfield insures that all WRs will have their head on a swivel waiting for the big hit from Reed.

Pats

The Pat O was hurt badly by the injury last week to WR Welker. Welker is one of 3 active WRs that has over 100 catches in the last 3 seasons. He is the underneath guy to pull coverage from Moss going deep. The key to the Pats passing game is the short pass to Welker. Welker is the safety valve for QB Brady and the passing game could struggle without him.

There is good news in the running game because according to NFL sources, RB Taylor should be back. Taylor is a great receiver as well as experienced in picking up blitzes. Both will be critical to keep the Pat O rolling.

The Pat D is another issue. This year they have struggled to stop the run without DL Seymour who they traded to Oakland and LB Vrabel to the Chiefs. The D also lost several players to FA including LB Colvin and Seau as well as S Harrison. The result was a D that tried to hang in rather than dictate to the O. The team has not been able use its complex Ds because the players that were smart enough to make adjustments were gone. Opponents have been able to run and pass against the simpler Ds because the team does not have the skill to compete. To stop the running game they are going to have to stack the line including using Reed at the point of attack. That will weaken the pass coverage and open things up for Ravens passing game.

Packers @ Cardinals

Packers

The Pack has been one of the hottest O’s in the last few weeks of the season. QB Rodgers has been on fire. In 5 of the last 7 games he has had a passing rating over 100. His passing has opened up the running game for RB Grant. Rodgers has as good a set of receivers as any team in the league. WRs Driver and Jennings are outstanding. They both are deserving of double coverage. TE Lee is solid and stretched the D down the middle. The O has avoided key injuries that have hurt the D.

One key to the game is the O line keeping pressure off the QB. They have allowed 51 sacks which is a concern if the Card D comes to play like they did in their playoff run last year.

The Pack D has lost pro bowlers CB Harris and OB/DE Kampman as well as key reserve LB Thompson. Even so, the team is playing well. The young LB crew has put pressure on opposing QBs regularly. Rookie OB Mathews is the key blitzer that has taken Kampman’s place. Pressure is key because the D backfield is vulnerable.

Cards

The Cards were bombed by the Pack last week. They put incredible pressure on QB Warner. The Cards did hold out some of their key players but suffered a major injury when WR Bolden went down. Bolden is a quick healer but is not expected to play Sunday. WR Breaston is going to have to pick up the slack. The other key injury is LT Gandy who is on IR. Bridges has replaced him but is not at all reliable to keep Warner upright. The entire O line has struggled at times to protect the passer. When they give Warner any time at all he will slice up any defense. But he can’t pass when he is on his behind.

The running game is not stable. RB Hightower fumbles way too often and rookie RB Wells struggles to pick up the blitz. The running game is solid in some games and disappears in others. They are going to have to be able to run the ball at least enough to keep the blitzes to a minimum.

The D is great in one game and terrible in the next. They have the talent but don’t seem to have the motivation in every game. Last year during the playoff run they were outstanding. They should be motivated to win in the playoffs.

Admittedly, I am a huge Warner fan. You will know in the first 2 possessions who is going to win. If Warner has time to throw and the Cardinal D shows up, it will be a close game. If not, the Pack will win easily.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: nfl football,NFL Playoffs,Ravens,Patroits,Packers,Cardinals,Warner,Brady,Bolden,Welker,injuries
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  • Published: Dec 31st, 2009
  • Category: NFL Football
  • Comments: Comments Off on What to look for in New Years Day bowl games.

What to look for in New Years Day bowl games.

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football

OUTBACK BOWL Northwestern 8-4 Auburn 7-5

This game pits the Big 10 vs. SEC. NW wins over two ranked teams (Iowa and Wisconsin) in the last two games gave them hope they can break a 6 bowl losing streak. This is the first New Year’s day bowl since 97. QB Kafka has thrown for 2898 yards but only 12 TDs and 7 picks. He has to produce the majority of the O because the running game has struggled. RB Fields has averaged just 3.0 per attempt this year. The NW D is solid and is led by DE Wootton who should be a top 15 pick in the NFL Draft. The NW D will have to find a way to contain the Auburn running game or it will be a long day.

Auburn had its usual fast start 5-0 only to lose 5 of their final 7 games. QB Todd had a nice season with 2377 yards 21 TDs and just 6 picks. He was able to take advantage of opponent defenses focused on stopping the 13th best running game in Division 1. RB Tate is the key. He ran for 1254 yards at a 5.8 per attempt and scored 8 TDs. He should be a 3rd round pick in the draft.

The Tiger D is led by LB Coleman and DT Ricks both of whom are good draft prospects.

Auburn is the better team that played a better schedule and will win.

GATOR BOWL Florida St. 6-6 #16 West Virginia 9-3

This is the last game on the sideline for legendary coach Bowden. He is second in all time Div. 1 wins. Bowden’s problems in the last few years have been on D. He has not gotten the super athletes on D to be competitive at the highest level. This year’s D has 3 draftable players. CB Robinson is a 1st round prospect. OB Watson is a 3rd round prospect. I really like SS Rolle and he would be a steal in the 5th round. QB Ponder is hurt but had a good year. His replacement Manuel has thrown more picks (6) than TDs (2). The running game is capable with RB Thomas averaging 5.2 per attempt.

WV has won 4 straight bowl games. They took advantage of a below average Big East to get to 9-3. QB Brown is supposed to be 4th round prospect but don’t expect that. He has struggled this year an the team has averaged 211 per game passing which ranks a dismal 84th. On O also watch OT Capers who may be a 2nd round pick.

On D the team has been good but has no senior super stars. The FSU team will play their hearts out for Bowden and despite being the underdog, I expect a close game and maybe an FSU win.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL #12 LSU 9-3 #13 Penn St. 10-2

LSU should have at least on player taken in each of the 7 rounds of the draft. Potential 1st round pick WR LaFell is 6-3 and is the prime target in the endzone for LSU. Look for OT Black and RB Scott to be picked in 2nd and 4th round respectively. Scott is a slasher who averaged 4.7 per attempt but injuries held him to just 116 carries. He is questionable for the game. The Tiger O ranks 108th which is not good looking at a solid Penn State D. The LSU D is led by SS Coleman (3rd or 4th round) and DE Alem (4th or 5th). While the D started out well, it has struggled to get off the field in the last 4 games giving up over 380 yards a game.

PS QB Clark was the leading passer in the Big 10 but tended to throw picks at the worst times against the toughest competition. His 2009 performance has dropped him from a possible 4th round pick to undrafted Free Agent status. Junior RB Royster has yet to decide if he will enter the draft. He averaged 5.9 per attempt and would be a 2nd round pick most likely.

The strength of PS is the D which is led by DT Odrick (1st round), ILBs Lee (2nd) and Hull (5th) .

The line is PS by 3 and that looks about right. If Scott doesn’t play it could be a lot worst than that.

ROSE BOWL #7 Oregon 10-2 #8 Ohio State 10-2

OSU Coach Tressel has suspended 3 players for the game including WR Small. That won’t help an O that has struggled this year. They have only 1 draftable Senior on O—C Cordle. The O line has been bad and QB Pryor has run for his life rather than running for first downs. The Bucks have the 106th ranked passing O. Pryor has not improved in his 2nd year as starter. In fact, he has become less accurate with worse mechanics than last year. The running game ranks 19th with a gagle of backs contributing including Pryor.

The OSU D ranks 5th in rushing D. That D will be tested often by the Ducks who rank 6th in rushing. S Coleman and DT Worthington are both prospects in the last half of the 2010 Draft.

Oregon’s RB James hides in the back pocket of the Duck O line then bursts out to rip off big gains. USC never could find him let alone tackling him close to the line. James replaced RB Blount who was suspended for hitting a player after the Boise State game. QB Masoli has a passer rating of 130 and has a great target in TE Dickson (2nd or 3rd round). The Ducks are 7th in scoring and will give the Buckeye D all they want.

Big 10 teams usually lose the Rose Bowl but that has been against USC most often. But the line is Oregon by 5. It shouldn’t be that close. However the best bet here is the under at 51.

SUGAR BOWL #3 Cincinnati 12-0 #5 Florida 12-1

The big question in this game is which Bearcat team will show up? Their coach is on his way to South Bend. This is big game not only for Cincy but for the Big East. This is their chance to show the football world that they are just as good as the big boys. Cincy is ranked 6th in total O and scoring but that was not against the kind of D speed that Florida has. They will depend on QB Pike (2nd or 3rd) to WR Gilyard (top 20). The Cincy O ranked 7th in passing despite the loss of Pike for a good deal of the season. RB Pead has average 6.6 per attempt. They won’t have that success against the Gators.

On D, Cincy has been solid led by DE Daniels and SS Webster both late round prospects. The team has been good against the run but a little soft vs the pass.

Florida has coaching questions of its own. Coach Meyer announced he was leaving the sideline but a day later that it was only a leave of absence. QB Tebow has been the bell cow of the team and is the spiritual leader. No other player in the draft has as many different views of his pro potential than Tebow. Experts rank his anywhere from top 3 to the middle of the 4th round. I will have a detailed scouting report later. He has 2413 yards passing with 18 TDs and 5 picks. He added another 859 yards rushing with 13 TDs. WR Cooper (3rd or 4th) is solid. The O line has been a little shaky but has blocked enough to allow RB Demps to average 7.7 per carry.

The Florida D is led by LB Spikes (1st) DE Cunningham (3rd) and OB Stamper and Doe. Look for them to keep the pressure on Pike all day.

Florida is a 13 point favorite and it shouldn’t be that close. But Cincy has fooled teams before.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: New Year’s Day Bowls,NFL,NFL Draft,Outback,Northwestern,Auburn,Gator Bowl,Florida State,West Virginia,Capitol One Bowl,LSU,Penn State,Rose Bowl,Ohio State,Oregon,Sugar Bowl,Cincinnatim Florida
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What to look for in football this weekend in College football.

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football

#2 Alabama 26 Auburn 21 Every run for an undefeated season has some close calls. But the Auburn D exposed a flaw in the Tide. They can’t protect QB McElroy from a speed rusher on the edge. That will be noticed by both Florida and whatever team they play in a bowl. If the game was not for bragging rights in the state, you could say that Bama got caught in a perfect sandwich game. That was not the problem. Bama played a very average game against a very average Auburn team.

#3 Texas 49 Texas A&M 39 The Horns won but their pass defense looked terrible. IF they have a healthy QB Lee, Nebraska can exploit the Texas zone by running crossing routes and flooding a zone. TAM gave the Horn D fits all game long. Had a couple of bounces gone the other way, the 6-5 Aggies would have won.

#5 Cincinnati 49 Illinois 36 Cincy QB Pike looks like a pro prospect. He has a nice delivery and is accurate on all the passes you ask for. The only question is arm strength which I think is over rated. I will be doing a complete analysis for NFLDraftDog.com soon. The Cincy D stunk the place up against a below average Illini O. They are going to have to get a lot better on pass coverage to win against Pitt next week. Pitt QB Stull is 4th in QB efficiency in the FBS coming into the WV game.

Saturday

Florida St. @ #1 Florida This is another rivalry game but Florida should win. While the Gators are playing for a shot at another title, FSU is playing to keep the heat off of their coach. QB Tebow has a QB rating of 155 and the FSU pass D has been burned regularly this season. FSU will play tough but Florida is just too good.

Georgia @ #7 Georgia Tech This is a chance for Tech to uphold the honor of the ACC against a middle of the road SEC team. As always, GT must be able to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down to be competitive. If the Dogs can get out in front, GT will struggle because they can not be successful passing when they have to. GT should win but don’t be surprised if the Dogs upset the Yellow Jackets.

#12 Oklahoma St. @ Oklahoma This game is critical for the BcS hopes of the non-BcS conference teams. A 2 loss OkState team would get the BcS invitation over an undefeated TCU if for no other reason than their fans travel more. That is a slimy way to pick which team should get into the best bowls. But the Sooners have more depth than State and will win.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NCAA Football,BCS,BCS Championship,Alabama,Auburn,Texas,Texas A&M,Cincinnati,Illinois,Florida,Florida State,Georgia Tech,Georgia,Oklahoma,Oklahoma State,Pitt,West Virginia,TCU,Nebraska
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What to look for in College football Week 11

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football

#25 West Virginia @ #5 Cincinnati tonight

Cincy faces a very good challenge tonight. But they also have to play at #12 Pitt in the last game of the season. They have QB Pike fairly healthy but his replacement Collaros has a passer rating of 210. This is a great strength. They will start Collaros tonight. The 2 headed running game of Pead and Ramsey has been outstanding. The real key to the team though is the D. It has stifled some really good offenses around the league.

WV has lost 2 games. They have played well but struggle on D against really good Os. The key will be if WV can stop the run and make Cincy pass when they have to rather than when they would like.

Cincy wins in a closer than expected game.

#1 Florida @ South Carolina

SC has been in and out of the top 25 all year. But losing 3 of their last 4 put them out for good. The team was badly beaten up in the loss to Alabama. They face a Florida team that is playing about as well as it has all year.

Florida has had some struggles but against Georgia seemed to find the O that led it to 2 titles in 3 years. This game will be a closer game than expected because former Gator coach Spurrier always gets his guys up to play his old team.

#2 Alabama @ Mississippi State

3 of MS’s losses have been to ranked teams and each time they played close games against better teams. Their D has fought hard but the O has been the problem. QB Lee has just 4 TDs and 11 picks. Those mistakes have put the D in a lot of bad spots. The running game is OK but will struggle against Bama. MS is tougher at home than on the road.

Bama has the ticket to the SEC Title game in their pocket but need to keep winning to have a shot at the Big game. They will easily and get some of their reserves game experience.

#16 Utah @ #4 TCU

TCU needs to keep winning and this is the biggest game still on their schedule. A big win here will give them a shot at the Big game IF two of the three teams in front of them lose. That is the only way they get into the game and that is a shame. TCU has one of the best D’s in the league. It also has a hard to defend offense that puts incredible pressure on the opponent. QB Dalton has 16 TDs and 3 picks with a yards per attempt of over 9. The running game is an after thought but RB Turner is OK with an average of 5.1.

Utah has only one loss to Oregon and can end the dream of TCU which has knocked them out of the undefeated status in previous years. They still can win the league and get a very good bowl game with a win here and another against #22 BYU. Utah is a good team but it won’t get either win. TCU will drill Utah.

#10 Iowa @ #11 Ohio State

The Buckeyes are wearing rose colored glasses since the win at Penn St. They only need to beat the Hawkeyes to go to the Rose Bowl. They have revised their offense but will not be able to run the ball very well against Iowa early in the game using the backs. They will have to depend on the arm and legs of QB Pryor to move the ball. The real key to the game will be the Buckeye D which totally crushed the PS O.

Iowa had problems moving the ball prior to the injury to QB Stanzi. But Stanzi was not having that good a year. He had 15 TDs with 14 picks. His replacement looked like road kill against Northwestern after the injury last week.

Offense will be in short supply in this game but the Buckeye D should generate enough points to win but maybe not to cover the 17 point spread.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: NCAA Football,point spreads,BcS Rankings,BcS championship,Cincinnati,West Virginia,Florida,South Carolina,Alabama,Mississippi State,Utah St.,TCU,BYU,Iowa,Ohio State,Rose Bowl,Penn State,Northwestern,bowl game
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What to look for in College football for week 8.

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football

1 Florida @ Miss St.

The Gators will face a pretty good O in the Bulldogs. QB Lee has a passer rating of 112.3 and RB Dixon averages 5.2 per run. The Dogs have struggled on D against good teams. In losses to Auburn, 7 LSU and 13 Georgia Tech they gave up a total of 121 points. They will give up quite a few against Florida as well. Florida this year seems to loose concentration in games against lessor teams. That is particularly true when a tough game is next up. The Gators will play Georgia next which is a big rival. Florida will win but it could be closer than it should be.

Tennessee @ 2 Alabama

Bama has taken over the top spot in some of the rankings and that is well deserved. It has outplayed Florida against better competition. Bama has beaten 3 ranked teams and won the games easily. Their D is playing outstanding ball giving up just 9 points in the last 2 games against ranked teams. The Bama O has played well with QB McElroy having a 137.6 passing rating and 2 RBs averaging over 5 per carry.

Tennessee had a nice win last week over Georgia but faces 2 ranked teams in the next 2 weeks. The D has played well but the O is inconsistent. QB Crompton has been streaky but is completing less than 58% with 13 TDs and 9 picks. He has a set of good receivers as well. He has racked up a lot of the numbers against 2 teams. RB Hardesty averages 5.4 per carry. The O has struggled against good defenses. They will struggle badly against Bama. Bama wins.

3 Texas @ Missouri

The Horns tend to play with less energy after the Oklahoma game. But they have way too much for the Tigers. Missouri lost a lot in graduation or the draft and is not a physical team. They will be pushed all over the field by Texas and the Horns win.

4 Boise State @ Hawaii

Boise is 4th but has no chance of playing for the national championship. I don’t want to hear any crying from State fans because if they want to play for a title they need to schedule more than 1 tough opponent. The only ranked team they played was Oregon. The rest of their schedule is too weak to get the spot over a 1 loss SEC or Big 12 team. They will win at Hawaii and get a nice tan at the same time.

Louisville @ 5 Cincinnati

Cincy may have lost their QB Pike in the game against South Florida. Pike has led the team to 244 points in 6 games. His replacement is Collaros is an untested sophomore. Pike’s status is unknown. The Cincy D has played well and should have no problem with the Cards or next week against Syracuse. However, they have 4 tough games to end the season and will need Pike if they want to win out.

6 Iowa @ Michigan St.

Iowa has 2 tough road games left on its schedule and this is one of them. Iowa has a shot at the big game if it ends the season undefeated. Either Alabama or Florida will lose at least 1 game when they meet in the SEC Championship game. That leaves only Texas as the other candidate. The Hawk O is inconsistent but seems to show up in big games. If Iowa gets by MSU their only other road game is at Ohio State.

The MSU D is very tough with 12 sacks in the last 3 games. They stopped last year star RB Green on 4th and 1 to preserve a win over Iowa. The game is at night and it is MSU’s best shot to get to a New Years Day Bowl. The Spartans may be more dangerous than the Buckeyes to Iowa’s hopes. Iowa will win in a close game.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .

Technorati Tags: ncaa football,NFL Draft,College football,Florida,Mississippi St.,Tennessee,Alabama,McElroy,Crompton,Hardesty,Texas,Missouri,Boise State,Hawaii,Oregon,Louisviiie,Cincinnati,Pike,Collaros,Iowa,Michigan State,Ohio State
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