#1 Alabama

This is the year that Bama needs to win it all. They have 14 senior player that will be given serious consideration in the 2010 NFL draft 9 of whom should be drafted. They have as always some nice underclass talent but with that many guys leaving, a number of the key juniors will likely declare for the draft as well. They can not replace that many front line guys without taking a step back next season. This is their best chance to win the big prize.

Bama O

Bama can throw the ball but make no mistake about it—They need to run the ball to win. RB Ingram (So.) won the Heisman trophy and is outstanding. He has great vision and a very quick first step. He has decent speed and very seldom goes down at first contact. He is patent and uses blocks as well as any back in college. Those qualities are not developed. You either have them or you don’t. He is a good receiver and gets to the edge on screens often. He has 30 catches this year for an average of 10.2 yards which is a lot higher than most RBs.

QB McElroy has a passer rating of 142 but that is a little misleading. He has taken advantage of Ds that played 46 guys at the line of scrimmage to stop the run. He has thrown 17 TDs and has had just 4 picks. He throws a catchable ball with accuracy. He does not throw well under pressure and that could be a problem against Texas.

The Tide has good but not excellent receivers. Soph WRs Jones and Maze are the stars. Jones (6-4) is the big guy over the middle and has 42 catches and 4 TDs. Maze (5-10) is the speed guy with 30 catches for a 17 yard average and 2 TDs. TE Peek (3^rd round) is a combo end with the ability to catch and block for the run. He has 26 catches and 3 TDs.

The O line is outstanding. It is led by All American Johnson (2^nd) and Davis (6^th). The team run blocks as well as any O line in recent years. They pass block well but were recruited to block the run.

Bama D

The D that stopped Florida is led by 2 All Americans (AA)—Butkus winner LB McClain (Jr.) and S Arenas (2^nd). Arenas and SS Woodall (3^rd) give the Tide the best pair of safeties in college. McClain was suffering from stomach problems but he is fine now. DT Cody (top 20 1^st round) anchors the D line. He is the 4^th rated DT in the draft. He fights through double teams to create havoc in the O backfield.

The D stuffs the run and lets the back line make up for any mistakes covering receivers. Given the quality of the back line, that has worked well. But against Texas, they are going to have to be more concerned about getting pressure on the QB and stopping the pass.

Texas

Texas will go as far as AA QB McCoy (1^st) takes them. The team has depended more on his arm than on the run and the D put together.

Texas O

McCoy came back this year to win a championship. Texas was 18^th in passing but 55^th in rushing on O. McCoy has thrown for 3512 yards with 27 TDs and 12 picks. Because the running game has under produced, this year McCoy has taken more chances throwing the ball into coverage than he did last year. That accounted for more picks this year.

McCoy had more rushing attempts than leading RB Newton. Newton averaged 5 yards per carry on 102 attempts. AA second team WR Shipley (late 1 early 2) is by far the leading receiver with 106 catches and 11 TDs. The next highest is WR Williams (So.) with 38.

The O line is led by AA C Hall (4^th), OT Ulatoski (3^rd) and late round prospect G Tanner. The line pass blocks very well. They have not been as successful run blocking. This year the running game has not been up to usual Texas standards. When they have had a close game, they have struggled to close out the game by running.

Texas D

The Texas D may be the most under rated part of this game. The D held Oklahoma to 13, and T exas Tech to 24. They also saved the year for the Horns by keeping Nebraska to 12 points when the O struggled big time. The key to the team on D is the line. DT Houston (2^nd) is the key along with DEs Jones and Acho who are both juniors. Houston keeps at least 2 OL guys busy and that frees up the LBs to attack the ball. OB Kindle (1^st) is a force rushing the passer or stopping the run. He is also dangerous in pass coverage. His running mates Norton (late or FA) and Muckelroy (2^nd) are returning starters and are under appreciated.

The D backfield is good but not great. CB Beasley (FA) is the bell cow but all 4 starters returned this year.

Prediction

I expect a low scoring game. I don’t see either team exploding offensively. The over/under is 45 and the under is the best bet. The line is Bama by 4. I expect them to win but it may be closer than that.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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INDEPENDENCE BOWL Texas A&M 6-5 Georgia 7-5

This is the battle of the bad defenses. TAM’s D gave up 33 points per game. Georgia has already fired all of their D coaches and is giving up 26 points per game. The key to a win will be which O takes maximum advantage of the faltering D.

The Dogs have finished up wining 3 of their last 4 but have had a bad year overall. Their O depends on the ability to run the ball. The Georgia RBs Early and King keyed the upset of Georgia Tech gaining over 300 yards rushing between them. QB Cox has been up and down throwing 22 TDs but also 14 picks. He had only 76 yards passing against GT.

TAM QB Johnson is outstanding. He has thrown for over 3000 yards with 28 TDs and only 6 picks. WR Nwachukwu is the deep threat averaging 18 yards per catch and 6 TDs. The question is can the O line protect Johnson long enough to let Nwachukwu go long.

Georgia has had a slightly better season and should win in a shootout.

EagleBank BOWL UCLA 6-6 Temple 9-3

Temple coach Al Golden has the team in its first bowl game in 30 years. He is now a very hot coaching prospect for “real” football schools. The Owls ripped off 9 straight wins before losing to Ohio U in their last game. They depend on the ground game to move the chains. Freshman RB Pierce is the star. Despite missing a chunk of the year from a shoulder injury he gained 1308 yards and scored 15 TDs.

The Pac10 has struggled in the Bowls so far. UCLA is not a great representative but should win this one. They have been a very inconsistent team this year in part due to injuries. They have talent but too often make critical errors leading to defeats. They went 3-0 to open the year only to drop their next 5.

Their D is led by 3 All Americans S Moore, CB Verner and DT Price. The talent on D should be too much for the Owls and UCLA wins in a close one.

MPS SPORTS BOWL 15 Miami 9-3 25 Wisconsin 9-3

This is one of the more interesting matchups. It will match the Badger running game with RB star John Clay against an improving Hurricane D. The Badgers will have to put pressure on Miami QB Harris who has come a long way since the beginning of the season. He has become a threat but in the last couple of games has been bitten by the turnover bug. Miami is favored but I think Wisconsin grinds out a win by keeping Harris and company off the field.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL Bowling Green 7-5 Idaho 7-5

Idaho has to stop the passing game of Sheehan to Barnes. WR Barnes has been outstanding with 1551 yards in receiving with 16 TDs. Sheenhan has become a potential draft choice in his final year with the help of Barnes.

Idaho has lost 3 of the last 4. The Vandals depend on their O to offset an inconsistent D. QB Enderly has been solid with 2666 yards, 18 TDs and 9 picks. RB Woolridge has scored 16 TDs with an 5.8 yard average.

Look for BG to win the game.

HOLIDAY BOWL 20 Arizona 8-4 22 Nebraska 9-4

The Huskers were a questionable call by a zebra from the biggest upset in the storied history of the school against Texas. The Nebraska D held the Texas O in check most of the game. They won the Big 12 North for the first time since 06. They are second in scoring D allowing just 11.8 points per game.

The Huskers sputter on O depending on the Black Shirt D to keep the score low. The team is 84^th in the country in scoring. All American DT Suh should be a top 3 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Arizona was in the Rose Bowl picture until a last minute loss to Oregon on 11/21. Then the win over Arizona State and USC was a positive end to their regular season. Arizona’s O is 40^th in yards and is scoring nearly 30 a game. Both the passing of QB Foley and running of Antolin will be contained by the Husker D. Nebraska wins by more than the 1 point line.

SUN BOWL Oklahoma 7-5 21 Stanford 8-4

The Sooners have had a disastrous season after losing QB Bradford. Jones has filled in but has been erratic throwing 23 TDs and 13 picks. RBs Brown (4.1) and Murry (4.5) have not been able to replace the passing of Bradford. The Sooners are scoring 30 points per game. The Sooner D will have to try to slow down one of the best running games in the country in Stanford.

The Cardinal is 11^th in rushing. RB Gerhart is averaging 5.6 per attempt and has scored 26 TDs. QB Luck is a better runner (5.8) than passer but takes maximum advantage of the opponent’s focus against the run. He has thrown for 2575 yards and 13 TDs with just 4 picks. The O needs to score a lot because the D gives up points like the Congress passes out money.

Oklahoma should be better in bowl games but have lost 5 of their last 6. But they are 10 point favorites. Look for them to shut down the running game and make Luck throw. The Sooners will win but it could be closer than 10.

INSIGHT BOWL Minnesota 6-6 Iowa State 6-6

This game could be the least interesting of the bowl season. Neither of these teams lived up to what the experts thought they would do this year. The Gophers are 3 point favorites but don’t look for a lot of top level offense. ISU is 102^nd in scoring and the Gophers are 79^th. Take the under at 49. Both QBs throw about as many TDs as picks and neither running game is solid.

Chick-fil-A BOWL 11 Virginia Tech 9-3 Tennessee 7-5

The best part of this game might be the Chick-fil-A commercials. The Vols have won 5 of 6 games since giving Alabama all they wanted in their game losing 12-10. The Vol D is coached by long time NFL DC Monte Kiffin. He has gotten a lot more out of the D than anyone expected. The D is led by S Berry, the Thrope winner. The O depends on the passing of QB Crompton who has thrown for 2565 yards and 26 TDs but has 12 picks.

VTk has played well and depends mostly on their rushing attack. They are 15^th in the nation rushing and 32^nd in scoring. RB Williams has averaged 5.7 per attempt and has scored 19 TDs.

VTk is a 6 point favorite but this game will be closer than that. The Kiffin D should hold the score down but Virginia Tech wins.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Both Weis and Bowden are fired.

Weis used the players recruited by Tyrone Willingham for his early success. The experience at ND proved that as head coach, Weis was one step beyond his level of competence. ND will likely never again be a regular contender for a national title. It may wander close from time to time but no matter who is the next coach, the team will not regain the status that both the administration and the fan base assume is their natural right.

Bowden is an entirely different story. Florida State was a joke prior to him becoming head coach. The “what have you done for me lately” group of FSU fans don’t seem to remember that. He had 14 straight top 5 finishes, 2 national championships, 12 conference championships, a bowl record of 21-10-1 and the second most wins in division 1 college football history. He is still loved by both his current and former players and the parents of those players. Now he has decided to retire the way that former USSR heads of state did—by threat of force. That is not the way that a great coach should end his career. FSU will have some problems getting a better coach. That is a hard act to follow.

The BcS is busted.

This season there are 6 undefeated teams going into the last week of the regular season. Either Florida or Alabama will drop from that list next week. Even so, it is clear to anyone that has watched TCU and Cincy are capable of playing with anyone. But until the pinhead college presidents get a kick in the butt from major donors that will suspend their gifts until Mr. Pinhead votes for a playoff, nothing will change. The fans are being cheated by a system that takes all meaning out of the regular season.

The big boys struggle with lessor competitors

#2 Alabama struggles to beat rival Auburn 26-21.

The Tide didn’t roll in the annual Iron Bowl. They looked sluggish and incapable of taking advantage of an Auburn D that was depleted by injury. They did show good fortitude coming back to win with less than 2 minutes left. But some cracks were obvious. The Tide managed only 73 yards rushing. RB Ingram who was considered a top Heisman prospect looked very average with 16 carries for 30 yards. They will have to play better than that to beat Florida.

#3 Texas D allows 39 by Texas A&M.

The strength of the Texas team was supposed to be the D beside QB McCoy. But TAM QB Johnson threw for 342 yards against the Texas D while McCoy could manage only 175. TAM WR Fuller ran through the Texas D so wide open it was like he was contagious with the H1N1. Something that should concern all Horn fans is that TAM lost to Oklahoma 65-10 and Colorado 35-34 in the last couple of weeks. Texas did not look good on either side of the ball.

#6 Boise State almost gets Kaepernicked.

Boise went into the game against Nevada with one thought—stop QB Kaepernick. They jumped out to a 20 point lead in the first quarter. Even so, they were forced to score in the 4^th quarter to win over a team with one threat—Big K. Kaepernick is a great runner and a better passer than most think. As always, he put the team on his back and almost pulled off the upset of decade for his school. The Boise D was so focused on K that they allowed a much less talented team to get back in the game.

#7 Georgia Tech gets lost in the hedges.

As I have said for several weeks, the way to beat GTk is to get in front quickly and then hold on for dear life. Georgia found its running game and used it to keep the GTk O off the field. Tech scored 17 points in the 2^nd half but fell short 30-24.

#9 Pitt gets upset by West Virginia.

Pitt had to score 10 points in the last 8 minutes just to get the game into overtime. They were in a position to challenge for a BcS bowl but not now. WV took revenge for Pitt knocking them out of a potential BcS Championship game a couple of years ago.

#12 Oklahoma State looked inept against an angry Sooner team.

Perhaps the biggest turkey of the weekend was OkS that looked totally outclassed by a wounded and angry Oklahoma team. OkS was shown to be a pretender not a contender.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The Browns begin to clean house.

The GM George Kokinis was frog-walked out of the facility. He should have been preceded by Head Coach Mangenous who is guilty of a lot more of the disaster than GK. There is no way describe the mess that Mangini has created. The team was better under the previous administration. The ex-Jets that were brought in particularly those that came at the cost of the 5^th overall pick have been less productive than they were last year.

The total absence of offense is not going to be solved over night. In NFLDraftdog last week I outlined a plan to at least patch the holes in the program and get back some fan interest. The team does not have any idea who it is on O. It really doesn’t matter because they can not run or pass effectively. The QBs are running for their lives.

Owner Randy Lerner said he is going to bring in a “real” football man to oversee the entire operation. Now that would have been a good idea before you jumped to hire Mangenous and gave him all the power.

The Titans show a little life

QB Vince Young was 15-18 in his first start of the year. Even his meager 125 yards was enough to keep the Jags D honest and open up things for the running game. RB Johnson had an amazing game running for over 200 yards and 2 TDs. But lets remember it was against the Jags.

Suddenly the Broncos look very average.

As predicted here last week, the Ravens took the Broncos apart and put them back together wrong. The Denver O could do very little as the Raven D looked like it did during the Super Bowl years. Things don’t get any easier for Denver having the Steelers next on their dance card.

The Giant WRs are costing them games

The loss to the Eagles again pointed out the major weakness in the Giants’ O—WR. The wideouts just can not seem to make plays often enough to win against good defenses. That is what we predicted at the beginning of the season. It will get worse for the Giants before it gets better.

The Vikes are just too much for the Pack.

Again as predicted, the Vikes one weakness was the QB. Now that they have Favre, they are set to challenge for the NFC. They will have to battle the Saints and the Eagles but I like the Vikes chances.

The Rams WIN!

The Lambs finally got a win. It would have made more of an impact had it not been against a wounded Lion team.

The Cards are still inconsistent.

The secret to the Cards winning is the play of QB Warner. The secret to him playing well is the protection he gets or does not get from the line. Until the O line firms up the Cards playoff chances will depend more on the WEAK NFC West than their own play.

The NFL and the NFLPA want to negotiate in private!

That is the first good piece of news we have seen. They are meeting and have agreed to keep the issues out of the press and away from the public. The less we hear from them the better are the chances of reaching an agreement.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Teams in serious trouble from the bad to the terrible

The Redskins (2-5) have taken the play calling away from coach Zorn. The main problem is not Zorn and it is not the QB. QB Campbell has a passer rating of 85. Given some of the teams on this list, that is not great but not that bad. Injuries have hurt the team badly. RB Portis is not healthy, they lost their all pro LT Samuels for the season and now the team has lost its best receiver TE Cooley for several weeks with a broken bone in his ankle.

But the real problem of the Redskins has been the draft. The Redskins have traded for players because they couldn’t find good ones in the draft. The down side of doing that is they are always old and always injury prone. The lack of middle round picks over the years have robbed them of quality depth. When a starter gets hurt, there is a large drop off in the abilities of the replacement. This year they will have another high pick but many of the rounds have already been traded away. Zorn will be fired but no one could get this team improved without cleaning out the front office as well.

The Raiders (2-5) will never get better until Davis gives up the control of the team. He makes a huge mistake like drafting QB Russell and will not admit it. He refuses to have anyone on his staff that criticizes him or his decisions.

The Lions (1-5) are actually turning the corner toward respectability. When QB Stafford went down it hurt that effort but he should be back soon. There are still a lot of holes to fill but not having GM Millen calling the shots will help. He was a disaster.

The Chiefs (1-6) won the contest for QB Cassell but that was not a great choice. He has struggled to a passer rating of 73. The team has suspended their star RB Johnson to whom they gave millions in a contract extension just to see him run for a staggering 2.7 per carry. He made some politically incorrect remarks and will be AOL for awhile. The D is terrible as well. The only good news is that they are in the AFC Least division in the West. Even with their problems, they may get past the Raiders for 3^rd in the division.

The Cleveland Tans are just a shadow of their former greatness. Mangini was the wrong pick for coach and he gave their top pick away for nothing. QB Anderson has a passer rating just above 40. Mangini has purged the roster of players he did not pick and brought in a lot of former Jets. So far then new guys have been a bust along with his draft picks. I have put a plan for rebuilding the team posted on NFLDraftDog.com.

The Titans (0-6) are in serious trouble because they are bad and old. They have the oldest starting 22 in the league. But they do have an outstanding coach Fisher. They lost DT Haynesworth in free agency and their D has not been anything close to as good without him.

The Rams (0-7) have some weapons on O but lack the blocking to make them effective. They drafted RT Smith (Baylor) to replace Orlando Pace but he was unable to beat out LT Barron and now is a reserve behind RT Goldberg. They did hit the jackpot with 2^nd round pick IB Laurinaitis who is starting and playing well. The problem for so long has been bad coaching and worse drafting. There is little to suggest that they know where the corner is let alone finding a way to get around it. So far the new staff hasn’t gotten much done.

The Buccaneers (0-7) have a new coach and new front off staff. The problem is they still have the same team. They have made a QB change but that has not helped. They used their 1^st pick on QB Freeman that won’t contribute for 2 or 3 years. They just don’t have a lot of talent on the team. They did get some decent talent later on in the draft including a couple of D linemen that are in the rotation. They have a long way to go to get back up to the middle of the pack.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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TN @ JK The Titans are in serious trouble. Just like the rest of those that watch and are fool enough to try to prognosticate NFL games, I thought the Titans would come around. They have had a ton of injuries on D and on the O line but that is no excuse. They are bad and there are no answers on the bench (see my column on Will Vince Young ever become an NFL QB?). The Titans are out of the playoffs for the first time in a while.

Jacksonville had their game blacked out. They are really struggling to get their attendance up. The only hope to keep the team in place beside a winning streak which won’t happen is to play some games in Orlando. They won’t do that and will end up moving. The 7 of you that have the NFL Network can see Jacksonville games after midnight on that channel.

BA @ NE The Pats took the one path to beat the Ravens that I have seen—Jump ahead and make them a pass first team. The 14 point 2^nd quarter by the Pats put the Ravens behind and they gave up on the run. That was not wise because Rice averaged 9.4 yards per attempt but got only 11 carries. The loss pulled the Ravs even with the Bengals who they play next week. The Pats were able to pull even with the Jets in the loss column with their fall to the Saints. I still believe that the Pats are the class of the AFC East.

NJ @ NO The Saints untold story is their D. They stopped the Jet O cold and held them to 10 points. The O has carried the Saints for years but now under former HC Williams they are playing very well on D. Look for them to make the NFC South their personal playground. The Jets will be fine and should make the playoffs as a wild card behind the Pats. They are a good team but Sanchez has to have some time to become a NFL QB.

DA @ DV The luck continued but so did an above average effort by the D. The Bronco D has played above their heads and has contributed the most to their 4-0 start. Dallas is in trouble. Romo has yet to prove he can make it happen in tough spots. The playoffs are going to be tough for the Boys that are now in effect 2.5 games behind the Giants because they are 2 games back in the loss column and lose the tiebreaker. The running game is struggling because the passing game is not as effective as it should be. The O line is a problem but so are the backs. Neither Barber nor Choice got 4 yards a carry. That is the standard for an average running game.

SD @ PT The Steelers got another win by showing their grit. They held off the Chargers on a 2^nd half rally that netted 28 points. The Steelers scored 10 in the 4^th to win the game. Mendenhall got out of the dog house just in time to run for 165 yards and 2 TDs. He was the difference between this win and last weeks lost to the Bengals. The Steelers are now 2-2 but 1.5 games behind the Bengals. They should still get to the playoffs but will it be as the Division champ or a wild card. The wild card route is a tough road to get to the Super Bowl.

GB @ MN The Pack was able to keep Peterson under control and allowed him only 2.2 ypa. But by focusing on the running game, Favre went to work. He threw for 3 TDs and 271 yards. The Pack gave up on the running game too soon. Grant was averaging 4.6 per carry but got only 11 attempts. The Vikes are on their way to the 1^st seed in the playoffs and that should carry them to the NFC Championship game.

TB @ WA The Redskins saved Coach Zorn from getting fired or worse. They stumbled to a 16-13 win over the totally inept Bucs. This was the stinker game of the week and lived up to that title. Between Johnson (TB) and Campbell (WA) there was only 276 yards of passing! If you were thinking that the Ds played really well, you would be wrong. Neither guy could hit the water from a sinking boat in the middle of the Atlantic.

CN @ CL Check out my full report on NFLDraftDog.com tomorrow.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Tonight Utah St. @ 20 BYU The Cougars should have no problem with Utah St. This game should be over by half time but probably won’t be. BYU has a habit of playing down to the competition even at home.

Tonight Pitt @ Louisville Pitt was stunned by NC State last week. They have looked good until that game but State controlled the ball over 37 minutes. The Pitt D could not get off the field. Louisville was thought by some to be a top 25 team before the season. They are not. Pitt wins easily.

#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia LSU is 4^th by default. They are not that good. Their win over Washington looked a lot better than it was after the upset of USC. The team is struggling on O. They just got by a very weak Mississippi St. team last week 30-26. QB Jefferson has good passing stats against weak DBs and the Tigers can’t run the ball. Georgia is a better team and is getting 3 points at home. LSU plays better at night at home and neither is the case here. Take the Bulldogs and give the 3.

#7 USC @ #24 Cal USC will be without both QB Barkley and RB Johnson this week. The problem with the USC O is the O line. It just has not come around as quickly as everyone thought it would. Cal has problems of its own after a 42-3 loss last week to Oregon. Cal is over rated and it showed last week. USC wins by more than the 5 point spread.

#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami This is a very young Miami team playing a very young Sooner QB. Miami looks like a bunch of freshmen and sophomores playing great against both Florida St. and Georgia Tech then looking outclasses by Virginia Tech on the road. Which Miami will show up is anyone’s guess. But the Oklahoma D will show up. I would not touch this game with a 50 pole but I usually go with the best D. Oklahoma should cover 7.5 point spread despite a couple of interceptions thrown by QB Jones.

#22 Michigan @ Michigan St. Big Blue has a very slow defensive backfield. That will be a problem against a set of very good WRs from MSU. Of course there is always an issue of QB Cousins getting the ball to them. He looked OK last week in a 36-30 loss at Wisconsin but was replaced by Nichol who averaged 16 yards per attempt vs. Cousins 5.6 per throw. Regardless who plays QB, Big Blue wins.

Florida St @ Boston College FSU has looked great one week and horrible the next. They went to BYU and looked like world beaters then were drubbed by a back up QB for South Florida at home last week. BC is struggling on O against Clemson then looked better against Wake Forest last week. But WF is over rated and the athleticism of FSU will carry the day.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The 08 Vikings had an outstanding D, solid O line, the best RB in the league but no quality WRs and not much at QB. The result was an good season including winning the NFC North title ended without success in the playoffs. Now Favre steps into the huddle. But having Favre at QB doesn’t answer all the questions, it just creates others. The QB question is will Favre last the whole season? Probably. Is he an upgrade over what they had? Definitely.

Favre can do what the Vikes want to—pass just enough to keep the D honest. Will he? Probably not. Favre wants to put the ball down the field. But he will do what he is asked to do most of the time because even more than long TDs, he wants to stick it to the Packers.

Another question is does Coach Brad Childress lose credibility with the locker room? That depends on what he told the team vs. what he said publicly. If he was honest with the team, he will be fine. If he wasn’t honest with his team there will be a problem.

Favre has some nice weapons in his quiver. WRs Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice will start despite what you have read about Bobby Wade. Favre loves the occasional deep ball and both can go deep. Rookie Percy Harvin will challenge Wade for the slot receiver. But if Wade doesn’t win a job to start or be the 3^rd WR, he my not make the team. The TE is Visanthe Shiancoe. After a year and half struggle, he finally came on at the end of 08 and has the potential to be outstanding.

There is no doubt about the running game. Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league and will get even better if Favre can complete enough passes to keep 47 guys out of the box. AP should be the first draft in most Fantasy drafts this season. RB Chester Taylor is starting quality and gives AP a blow. You won’t hear his name much because the announcers can’t pronounce it but Naufahu Tahi is solid at FB.

The line of LT Bryant McKinnie, LG Steve Hutchinson, C John Sullivan, RG Anthony Herrera and RT Phil Loadholt is outstanding. Rookie Loadholt and C Sullivan are the new comers. Loadholt has potential and looked good in the first preseason game. Sullivan replaced the aged Matt Birk who went on to Baltimore. Hutch is all pro and plays like it. McKinnie seems to have gotten the message after being suspended last season for substance abuse and played well. Last year T Ryan Cook started most of the season and is the backup plan if Loadhold faulters. G/T Artis Hicks provides versatility as a backup as well.

The league tried to suspend DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams but they went to a state court and got the suspension put on hold. The issue is still not fully decided. The Williams boys are the best pair of DTs in the league. They join DEs Ray Edwards and Jared Allen, although Allen was injured recently and his status is undetermined. The line when healthy provides an excellent pass rush and stuff the run with authority. DE’s Brian Robison and Kenechi Udeze (assuming he is healthy) provide depth and Robinson will challenge Edwards to start.

SLB Chad Greenway and MLB E.J. Henderson are athletic and fast. They are a perfect complement to the D line. The team missed Henderson who lost the last 12 games of the regular season to injury. WLB Ben Leber is solid against the run and above average vs. the pass. Heath Farwell is back from injury to provide depth and rookie Jasper Brinkley has speed and potential.

The D backfield has some issues. CB Antoine Winfield was all pro last year and wanted a new deal but at 32, the team was slow to offer it. They got it done and Windfield is happy and richer. CB Cedric Griffin came on nicely last year. S Tyrell Johnson is a first time starter and is unproven but has potential. S Madieu Williams is coming off an injury. The nickel back is undetermined. CBs Marcus McCauley, Asher Allen, Karl Paymah, and Benny Sapp will battle for the spot and the bench positions.

OVERALL: The Vikings are now a real threat to win the NFC and the Super Bowl. They have all the parts and less holes than most of the other teams. The big question is Favre and the DBs. Favre should be at least better than the rest of the QBs. The DBs will have to hold up under a lot of passing attacks. The Vikes will score a lot of points and teams will have to pass to try and catch up.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Giant head coach Tom Coughlin is infamous for running a tight ship and a physical training camp. This year seems to be a little tougher than most. No fewer than 16 players are nursing early camp injuries of various severity. CB Corey Webster (hip), CB Aaron Ross (leg), WR Steven Smith (knee), WR Hakeem Nicks (hamstring), DT Chris Canty (hamstring), OL Guy Whimper (toe), OT Cliff Louis (ankle), OT Kevin Boothe (pectoral) and DE Maurice Evans (hip) DT Fred Robbins (knee) and DE Justin Tuck (foot) OG Chris Snee (leg) C Shaun O’Hara (triceps) OG Rich Seubert (shoulder) WR David Tyree (knee) and DT Anthony Bryant (undisclosed) all have missed time at the camp. There are more people lined up at the trainer’s room than customers waiting to dump their rides in on Cash for Clunkers program. Even so, don’t look for the pace or intensity of the camp to change. That would not be consistent with Coughlin’s personality.

QB Eli Manning has his new deal. Now all he needs is a couple of dependable receivers. Manning is the offensive leader of the team but has struggled in the playoffs. His production fell off a cliff last year without Plaxico Burris. His second WR Amani Toomer was allowed to leave in free agency. Manning has to get a new best friend target he can depend on. That won’t be easy given the group of candidates. I would not pick Manning for my Fantasy Football team.

The Giants plan to have Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon as starters. Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss and David Tyree provide the only experienced backups available. The starters have not impressed during OTAs and so far in camp. Tyree has a knee problem and may well not survive the final cut. Manningham and Moss show promise but Manningham had consistency problems at Michigan. The best hope for the team may be rookies Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden. The problem is that generally a WR doesn’t blossom in the NFL until his second or third year. Manning still has TE Kevin Boss who is a dependable pair of hands.

The running game is solid but lost a key component when backup Derrick Ward (1.025 yards in 08) was allowed to leave in free agency. RB Brandon Jacobs (4^th round 05) was one of the all time great steals in the draft. He is a beast and even DTs don’t want to tackle him when he has a full head of steam. Anything that big that moves that fast should have the words “US Air Force” on the side. His only problem is that he runs upright and is subject to injury. His primary backup now is the speedy Ahmad Bradshaw. The question is can Bradshaw run inside like Ward did? Andre Ware and rookie RB Andre Brown provide further depth.

The O line has been one of the great strengths of the team. The lineup has been the same for 2 years and the combination of LT David Diehl, LG Rich Seubert, C Shaun O’Hara, RG Chris Snee and RT Kareem McKenzie provide protection for Manning and the push the runners need. Rookie LT Will Beatty has real potential but needs to get stronger. He may move into LT in 2010 and allow Diehl to move back to G. The bench is solid with T Guy Whimper, T Andrew Carnahan, and G Tutan Reyes being the prime candidates.

New defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan has a toy box full of goodies with which to play. The D line has LE Justin Tuck, LT Barry Cofield, RT Fred Robbins and RE Osi Umenyiora coming off of knee surgery that cost him all of 08. Assuming Osi is healthy, there isn’t a better group in the league. They also have great depth of DE Mathias Kiwanuka, DE/DT Chris Canty, DT Rocky Bernard and DT Jay Alford. Canty and Kiwanuka would start for a lot of NFL teams.

Injuries and changes make the LB group a little less solid. MLB Antonio Pierce is the leader. SLB Danny Clark is smart but not a great playmaker. He is a journeyman. WLB Michael Boley was signed to play that position but was injured. Last year 4^th round pick Bryan Kehl stepped in and hasn’t given the spot back yet. 2^nd round pick in 09 SLB Clint Sintim will challenge Clark and Boley and Gerris Wilkinson will try to unseat Kehl.

The starting group of LCB Aaron Ross, RCB Corey Webster, FS Michael Johnson and SS Kenny Phillips is as good as any in the league. Ross and Webster are playing at a pro bowl level. 08 first round pick Phillips stepped in to the SS spot and solidified it. CB Kevin Dockery, CB Bruce Johnson and CB Travonti Johnson provide strength at CB but there is not much at safety.

OVERALL: The Giants will be a force again in the playoffs if they survive Camp Coughlin. The NFC is wide open and the Giants will go just as far as Manning and the receiving corps takes them. My expectation is that they will make the NFC Championship game but home field and the success of Manning et. al. will determine if they make it to the Super Bowl.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Kansas City GM Scott Pioli has bet a lot on QB Matt Cassel but didn’t give up an arm and a leg to acquire him. Even though Cassel never started at USC and had one good year behind a group of pro bowl players, Pioli had very little to lose. The Chiefs needed a QB and Cassel’s question marks are far fewer than any rookie he could have gotten in the second round.

Cassel is a slightly above average QB in the Pat style O that KC will implement. However, he needs to be more accurate in the red zone to help the pathetic O of the 08 Chiefs claw its way to the middle of the pack. He will need an improved running game and a lot more protection from the line to make the Chiefs competitive.

The success of the running game depends on RB Larry Johnson staying healthy and focused all year. He is still capable of pro bowl level play but injuries and demands for a new contract or a trade have prevented him from showing it over the last two seasons. There is nothing behind him comes close to quality depth.

Cassel will miss the speed of Randy Moss—he’ll even miss the speed of Wes Weilker. What he has is a group of inconsistent less than average speed WRs that tend to drop as many balls as they catch. Both projected starters Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley fall into that category. The one hope for the team is vet Bobby Engram is he is healthy. He hasn’t been for the last several years.

Don’t expect any help from the TE. Pioli traded all pro Tony Gonzalez. Now Cassel will have one of the following candidates at the position: Brad Cottam, Sean Ryan, Tony Curtis, or maybe Jake O’Connell. The reason you haven’t heard of most of these guys is they have yet to do anything to get noticed.

In what can only be described as the Bill Belichick way, Pioli and the new head coach Haley managed to piss off one of their best players G Brian Waters over his off season conditioning. Haley wants to have a lighter more mobile line. Waters doesn’t fit that mold. The rest of the line is good and bad. UFA G Mike Goff is solid and is a natural leader. The Chiefs can use all the leadership it can find. LT Branden Albert has a lot of talent and is starting to show it. C Rudy Niswanger and RT Damion McIntosh are very average hole fillers with a little up side. They will get better or get replaced next year. There is not much on the bench to help should someone go down.

On the D line the ends could be very good to outstanding. The problem is finding a NT. The switch to the 3-4 moves DT Glenn Dorsey to DE. He is outstanding when healthy and motivated. Having one of his running mates at LSU on the line may help. I really like rookie DE Tyson Jackson. Jackson did not have as good a year in 08 as he did in 07 because he was double teamed every play. He needs to be more effective at splitting doubles and getting into the backfield. Either Ron Edwards or Tank Tyler will be NT. Neither is capable of being effective at the spot. The depth is inconsistent and lacks athleticism.

OB Mike Vrabel came to KC in the Cassel trade and will be the director of Defense for the team. He knows the D and provides leadership on that side of the ball. UFA MLB Zach Thomas provides leadership as well. IB Derrick Johnson has spectacular ability. The team just wishes it showed a little more often. Projected starting OB B Tamba Hali and reserves Turk McBride and Andy Studebaker are former DEs trying to figure out how to play their new spot. Reserve Monty Beisel is a capable fill in.

At least the DBs know each other and what they are supposed to do. CBs Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr have upside and were decent last year. Flowers needs to tackle a little better. SS Bernard Pollard and FS Jarrad Page start their 4 year together and should be getting better. 08’s performance didn’t show much improvement. Mike Brown and Jon McGraw are vets that can play and 4^th round pick Donald Washington has potential.

OVERALL: The only thing that will keep the Chiefs out of the AFC West basement is the Raiders. They have the potential to get better but it won’t happen this year.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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