There is no question that the Saints have one of the most dangerous Os in the league. Their win/loss record will depend most on how well they can stop the other team from doing the same thing.

Drew Brees is the #2 QB in most Fantasy Drafts this year for good reason. In the last 3 seasons he has thrown 26, 28 and 34 TDs. The only comment that some QB gurus make is that he is too short at a little under 6 feet to see over the O linemen. Let’s be honest. When you have 5 guys that are between 6-8 and 6-5 in front of you, you have to be 8 feet tall to see over them. Every QB needs to look in between his linemen to find his target. Brees has it all—leadership, arm, accuracy, ability to read coverage, ability to move in the pocket and rush awareness. His backup is Mark Brunell. Mark has to use Grecian Formula 88 to keep his hair brown because Grecian Formula 44 wasn’t strong enough. He is 39 but is a reasonable backup. Joey Harrington joins Brunell on the bench.

The Saints running game is a little up in the air. If you look at all the preseason books, they show Reggie Bush as the starter. He may but his has never in his college or professional career been “the” guy. Even sharing the position with a number of other Saints, he has not been healthy for an entire season over the last 2 years. He is a talent and has speed and elusiveness. But he is not built to handle 25 carries a game for 16 games plus playoffs.

My Fantasy tip of the year—get Pierre Thomas as your 2^nd or 3^rd RB. He averages 4.8 yards per carry and scored 12 TDs last year (9 rushing). The duo is solid and should make it difficult for defenses trying to defend the pass. The FB is Heath Evans, an excellent blocker and receiver out of the backfield.

The receiver corps is a 3 headed monster. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore are as good as any 3 in the NFC. Colston was out for 5 games but the O never seemed to slow down. There may be another head added to the group because Robert Meachem is getting better and is a solid threat. The TE are Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, and Darnell Dinkins all of whom have been starters. Shockey was a disappoint primarily due to injuries. He still caught 50 balls.

One of the goals on the O line last year was to get bigger and tougher. Ts Jammal Brown and Jon Stinchcomb were the only guys to survive the change. The team added 2 rookie guards Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans and both were OK. Jonathan Goodwin stepped in at C. The entire group is back with Brown as the best of the line. G/C Jamar Nesbit, T Zach Strief and C Nick Leckey provide veteran depth.

If the O is the good and the D is the bad then the D line is the ugly. Both DEs Charles Grant and Will Smith had injuries last season and have been suspended for the first 4 games for substance violations. Bobby McCray, Paul Spicer and E Anthony Hargrove will battle to start in their place. Spicer and Hargrove were UFA additions and have look very good in camp and in the first preseason game. DTs Sedrick Ellis and Kendrick Clancy were OK. Ellis started as a rookie.

The team traded for MLB Jonathan Vilma and he solidified the middle of the D. It’s a good thing because backup MLB Mark Simoneau was put on the IR with a torn tricep. SLB Scott Fujita and WLB Scott Shanle are projected to start but may be challenged. UFA and former all pro Derick Brooks was signed to bolster the LBs. He provides leadership and is particularly good at pass coverage.

The D backfield last year was a major problem. The team brought in vet CB Jabari Greer and drafted rookie Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State. They will challenge expected starters Randall Gay and Tracy Porter. UFA FS Darren Sharper brings leadership and joins SS Roman Harper to solidify the last line of defense. The group should be better with the additions. Vet S Pierson Prioleau was signed as a solid backup and former starter Jason David is expected to be the 5^th DB or be cut due to his salary.

OVERALL: The Saints are great on O but improving on D. They will challenge the Falcons for the NFC South title. The winner will be whichever D plays the best. Bet on the Falcons with the Saints a possible wild card team.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Fryingpan Sports

The analysis of the Cutler trade.

By Bill Smith

The Broncos got lucky—real lucky—in the Cutler trade. It is hard to overestimate the NFL owners’ willingness to jump at getting talent. And make no mistake about it, Cutler is talented. But a lot of that talent is not performance, it is potential. And nothing can get a coach fired faster than the P word—potential.

Part of the reason that Cutler went as high as he did was the lack of starting quality QBs available in free agency and the draft. There are a couple of competent veteran FA QBs with starting experience like Byron Leftwitch, J.P Losman, and Joey Harrington among others. So far no one has indicated a great deal of interest in any of the three.

The deal wasn’t all that one sided. The Bears gave the 09 first and third, a first in 2010 and QB Kyle Orton. They got QB Jay Cutler and the Broncos 5^th pick in 2010. The first and third picks in 09 was the minimum that you would expect for a young franchise QB. Besides, the Bears received a compensatory pick at the end of the 3^rd round for the free agents it lost in 08. Those picks are offset by Cutler. The inclusion of Orton is no big deal for the Bears because with Cutler starting, Orton would have been a backup at best. The only choice in question is the Bears’ 1^st in 2010.

If the Bears wanted to trade up from the 18^th pick to get high enough to get QB Mark Sanchez (USC), they would at least have to get to 9^th pick. That would get them in front of San Francisco who would take Sanchez if he was available.

The 18^th pick is worth 900 points on the NFL Draft choice trade value chart. The 9^th pick is worth 1350. The Bears’ third round pick in 09 is worth 180 points. Even including the third pick, trade value to get to the 9^th pick from the 18^th pick in 09 (900+180) is still 270 points short. The value of the Bears 1 in 2010 is 400 points (equal to the second round in 09).

Given that, the gave a total of 130 extra points (equal to a late 3^rd round in 09) to get a proven QB like Cutler rather than a rookie 1 year starter in Sanchez. Sanchez is a total unknown. Those of you that read this column frequently know I have serious doubts about Sanchez. If he is good enough to be a top 15 draft pick, why wasn’t he able to beat out John David Booty (5^th round pick 137 by the Vikings) for the 3 years that they were both at USC?

Any GM in the world would trade Sanchez and a third pick for a proven QB like Cutler. Cutler has much more arm strength, makes better reads, and has proven himself against an NFL pass rush. Sanchez works hard throwing the 15 yard out from the opposite hash which is a key measure of arm strength. He also has never faced NFL pass rushers or NFL corners.

And even if Chicago make that trade to get to #9, with the luck of the Bears finding a QB, Seattle would take Sanchez at 4 and the Bears would be out of luck.

What do the Broncos do for a QB? I will have that in a future column.

I believe that new head coach of the Broncos, Josh McDaniel, was the totally wrong pick for Denver. The offense for Denver last year was in the top 10 in the league. It was the 29^th ranked defense that killed the Bronco chances for the playoffs. And yet owner Pat Bowlen selected an offensive coach in McDaniel who was the offensive coordinator for New England. In the spitting contest between his HC and franchise QB, Bowlen backed McDaniel.

The Denver media reported that Bowlen said he had not been told that the GM Brian Xanders and HC were trying to deal the starting QB. Don’t believe that for a second. Had McDaniel not told Bowlen he was shopping Cutler, the Coach would be gone (along with the GM) and Cutler would still be a Bronco.

I think McDaniel has set the Broncos back 3 years even with the extra draft choices. I have always liked Orton. But Orton is at best a care-taker QB and not someone that can lead you deep into the AFC playoffs. As a Browns fan, that does not sadden me in the least. We will see which team is helped more by the trade. My bet is that Chicago is now even with the Vikings in talent to win the NFC North.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.