#9 LSU @ #3 Alabama – 7.5

Alabama dropped a spot in the BcS last week on a bye. They get it back this week against a good but over matched LSU team. Bama QB McElroy has to be effective throwing the ball because the LSU run D is outstanding. In the last 4 games he has failed to throw for 150 yards. He must do better than that against LSU to keep the Tigers from loading up the D line. This will be another real test of the Bama O line.

LSU QB Jefferson, also a 1^st year starter, has struggled to get the ball down the field. He is completing almost 64% of his passing but only for 7.36 per attempt. RB Scott is not producing as much as they had hoped at just 4.5 per attempt and has scored only 4 TDs. The LSU O will struggle to keep the ball and let their D rest.

Look for a very low scoring game with Bama winning but struggling to cover the spread.

#17 Ohio State @ #11 Penn St – 3.5

People around Ohio are thinking Rose Bowl—not so fast my friend. That would require that the Bucks win at PS and then beat #4 Iowa next week plus a win at Michigan to end the regular season. That dream ends Saturday. The Bucks have no offense and are not sure where it went. QB Pryor has regressed and now is struggling with mechanics and reading defenses. The result is he may hit a couple of big plays.

PS has gotten solid production out of QB Clark and RB Royster. Clark has a rating of 149 and 18TDs to 7 Ints. Royster is averaging nearly 6 per carry. The D is solid but not special.

The Bucks will be trying FGs with a backup kicker while PS is scoring TDs. PS wins and covers the spread.

#7 Oregon @ Stanford – 7

This is a classic LET DOWN game for the Ducks. They looked unbeatable last week against USC at home. Now they face an up and down Stanford team that can be dangerous at home. They have not lost there. Oregon’s O is the most improved unit in all of college football. The running game is much better with RB James than it was against Boise St. He has the speed and change of direction to make the stretch play work to its maximum. The running game has made QB Masoli extremely effective with play action.

The only hope that Stanford has is that the Duck head are so big they can’t get their helmets on. Oregon should win and cover but stay away from this one due to the chance of a let down.

#24 Oklahoma @ Nebraska + 5.5

How far has this once great rivalry fallen? To the point that no one really outside of those two states cares who wins. Sooner QB Jones has done better than anyone could have hoped taking over from the injured Bradford. He has a passer rating of 142 with 17 TDs and just 6 picks. Their problem is the lack of a running game. RB Brown is averaging just 4.3 per attempt and the team struggles moving the chains. They are just trying to get into a decent bowl after losing 3 games this year.

The Huskers was quietly having a nice season at 4-1 until they lost in each of the last two games including a bad loss against Iowa St last week 9-7. The D has played better than it did last year and the O has good numbers but the latter is misleading. The O has let them down in their 3 losses scoring just 32 points in those games.

The Sooners are the better team and should win and cover but who cares?

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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1 Florida is clearly the best of the top 3 teams. It went to LSU at night and dominated what had been an explosive offense. LSU’s QB Jefferson was 11-17 but only got 96 yards. That was just not enough. The LSU running game was also contained by the Gator D.

Gator QB Tebow looked just OK coming back from the concussion. The Florida O was limited by the LSU defense. LSU showed it deserved to be in the top 10 but was not a contender for the national championship.

As I suggested last week, 2 Texas wasn’t mentally into the game against Colorado in the first half. The team was down 14-10 at the half. But in the second half the O woke up and put another 28 points on the board. However, there are some problems with the Texas team. They can not run the ball. They averaged only 2.2 yards per attempt against a very average Colorado D. That is not going to bode well for them against Oklahoma let alone a Florida or Alabama D.

3 Alabama took the (former #4) #20 Mississippi team apart and reassembled them incorrectly. The Bama D made Ole Miss QB Snead to be a fraud as a top NFL QB prospect. He just doesn’t read coverages well or perform under duress. Snead threw 4 interceptions and there could have been a couple more. It was not his best game. But so far against a mix of decent and not so good teams Snead has 9 TDs and 9 picks. He has lost his shot at a 1^st round pick in the draft.

Mississippi has no more games against ranked teams. The losses against Alabama and South Carolina have proven that the team is not a contender but a pretender.

News flash—5 Virginia Tech is really good. They did what I said they would and crushed BC. The Tech D cause 3 turnovers and did not allow a score by BC until the 4^th quarter when the game was in the bag. They have now beaten 2 ranked teams after a close loss at Alabama. If they can beat Georgia Tech next week on the road, they should be able to run the table and be in the conversation for the National Championship game. But as good as they are, they won’t be able to handle Florida.

There are problems on both sides of the ball for 9 Ohio State. They never should have beaten Wisconsin. The O generated 1 drive at the end of the 1^st half for a touchdown. That was all that the O did on its own. The problem is QB Pryor’s inability to be consistently accurate and the O line’s inability to protect him. The line breaks down regularly on pass protection and fails to push a good D line off the ball in the running game. The report from OSU is that Pryor asked to throw more from the pocket in a pro style O to improve his pro prospects. It isn’t working. A 5 for 13 game for 87 yards is not going to win many games.

The new WR corps is below the quality of that last year but the fact is that Pryor has not progressed. In some ways like staring down the receiver he has regressed. If OSU is going to win against Iowa and Penn State, he is going to have to get better in a hurry.

The D can’t stop a solid running game on 3^rd down. The Badgers didn’t run all over the Buckeye D but they converted key 3^rd and 4^th downs to keep drives going. It was only when they threw the ball that the Wisconsin O ran into trouble. The OSU D is going to have to do a better job stopping the run.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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1 Florida @ 4 LSU

QB Tim Tebow is reportedly going to start the game Saturday. In the first couple of series watch to see if he is running the ball and if he is using his head rather than risking it by sliding or going out of bounds before he takes a monster hit. The risk is once you have had a concussion you are more susceptible to them in the future. He has hurt his draft status because of the injury. A broken arm or knee would not have done as much damage as a concussion to his ranking in the draft.

The Florida running game beside Tebow is going to have to pick up the slack better than it did after the injury against Kentucky. Despite Tebow going out in the middle of the 3^rd quarter, he still was the leading rusher in the game. No other back got 100 yards or more than 12 carries. Tebow got 16 in a little over a half of football.

The other aspect of the Florida game will be how effective will Tebow be in passing. He has yet to prove to most scouts that he is an NFL quality QB prospect in part because of questioned arm strength and partly because he has to change from a pure spread to an NFL style offense. That is not an easy transition. QB Brantley is a talented backup but does not offer the leadership that Tebow offers. If Tebow can’t go or has to come out, look for the Gators to run more and depend on Brantley to throw less to try not to lose the game. The game plan will become a lot more conservative.

LSU has its own concerns on offense. They are home and playing at night which is one of the best venues in college football. But the team ranks 80^th in the nation in scoring TDs in the red zone. FGs are not going to beat Florida. They are going to have to score TDs.

QB Jefferson is 19 and the youngest QB starting in the SEC. He needs some help from the play caller if he is going to do better against the veteran Florida D than he has against the likes of Vanderbilt or Louisiana-Lafayette. They need him to do less reading and more rolling out. That should also help reduce the rush from the Gator front 7. He seems more comfortable reading half the field in a roll out than trying to read the entire field from the pocket.

Another problem LSU has in scoring inside the red zone is that they have not proven that they can run the ball into the endzone. That results in the D playing the pass exclusively inside the 20.

If Tebow plays the Gators win. If not, they lose.

Colorado @ 2 Texas

This is a trap game for Texas. They get Oklahoma next week. Traditionally Texas wins the game before the Red River Rivalry but not by much. Colorado is not a good team. It has lost to both Colorado State and Toledo. Look for a closer than expected game with the Horns winning.

3 Alabama @ 20 Mississippi

This game would have carried a lot more hype had not Ole Miss lost to South Carolina. Alabama is an outstanding team with a crushing D. This is QB Snead’s chance to prove he is a top NFL prospect. So far he has show the potential but not the production in big games. In what most people think was his highpoint in the defeat of Florida last year he was 9 for 20 for 185 and 2 TDs with 1 int. Not what he needs to prove his value.

Alabama can not look past Ole Miss because it has #25 SC, a road game at Tennessee and home against LSU in the next 3 weeks. This is put up or shut up time for the Tide. They need a big win here to prove their worthiness for the #3 spot. They will win but not by enough to satisfy the home folks.

Boston College @ 4 Virginia Tech

BC has had Tech’s number the last few years. But this year should be different. VT wins comfortably.

Wisconsin @ 9 Ohio State

The key to this game will be the ability of Wisconsin to run the ball with their outstanding O line against the D line of OSU. The Badgers are still trying to find out exactly who they are. They better find out before 3:30 on Saturday or it will be a long day. OSU wins but struggles as it always does.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Tonight Utah St. @ 20 BYU The Cougars should have no problem with Utah St. This game should be over by half time but probably won’t be. BYU has a habit of playing down to the competition even at home.

Tonight Pitt @ Louisville Pitt was stunned by NC State last week. They have looked good until that game but State controlled the ball over 37 minutes. The Pitt D could not get off the field. Louisville was thought by some to be a top 25 team before the season. They are not. Pitt wins easily.

#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia LSU is 4^th by default. They are not that good. Their win over Washington looked a lot better than it was after the upset of USC. The team is struggling on O. They just got by a very weak Mississippi St. team last week 30-26. QB Jefferson has good passing stats against weak DBs and the Tigers can’t run the ball. Georgia is a better team and is getting 3 points at home. LSU plays better at night at home and neither is the case here. Take the Bulldogs and give the 3.

#7 USC @ #24 Cal USC will be without both QB Barkley and RB Johnson this week. The problem with the USC O is the O line. It just has not come around as quickly as everyone thought it would. Cal has problems of its own after a 42-3 loss last week to Oregon. Cal is over rated and it showed last week. USC wins by more than the 5 point spread.

#8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami This is a very young Miami team playing a very young Sooner QB. Miami looks like a bunch of freshmen and sophomores playing great against both Florida St. and Georgia Tech then looking outclasses by Virginia Tech on the road. Which Miami will show up is anyone’s guess. But the Oklahoma D will show up. I would not touch this game with a 50 pole but I usually go with the best D. Oklahoma should cover 7.5 point spread despite a couple of interceptions thrown by QB Jones.

#22 Michigan @ Michigan St. Big Blue has a very slow defensive backfield. That will be a problem against a set of very good WRs from MSU. Of course there is always an issue of QB Cousins getting the ball to them. He looked OK last week in a 36-30 loss at Wisconsin but was replaced by Nichol who averaged 16 yards per attempt vs. Cousins 5.6 per throw. Regardless who plays QB, Big Blue wins.

Florida St @ Boston College FSU has looked great one week and horrible the next. They went to BYU and looked like world beaters then were drubbed by a back up QB for South Florida at home last week. BC is struggling on O against Clemson then looked better against Wake Forest last week. But WF is over rated and the athleticism of FSU will carry the day.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The Cavs took 2 steps up with the trade for C Shaquille O’Neal. Most of the experts are saying that Shaq won’t impact the Cavs that much. That is both true and false. But then they threw away their 1^st round pick by drafting Christian Eyenga of the Congo via Spain. One step WAY back.

False: The thing that Shaq gives the Cavs is an inside scorer. Shaq is also a better passer than almost any other C in the league. When the Cavs get the ball inside and the D begins to collapse on him, he can pass to the perimeter for a 3 point shot. That will work if anyone other than LeBron James is capable of hitting a 3 in the playoffs. Mo Williams was brought in to be the other outside scorer and take some pressure off LeBron. That worked well in the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs. However, in the series against Orlando, Mo became one of the statues standing watching LeBron take on the entire Magic team. Add to that the fact that Mo couldn’t have hit the Mississippi River from the middle of a bridge and the Cavs get blown out of the playoffs.

The older C Zydrunas Ilgauskas gets the farther away from the basket he seems to play. Over the last couple of years, no one doubled Z. And most of his points have come from 10 feet and out. He has not been an inside scoring force that LeBron needs. He has never been physical. Given the ability of Shaq to catch the ball and score inside, he is a major improvement in the middle over Z.

True: The addition of Shaq does nothing to help pick and roll D which was half the reason that the Cavs lost to the Magic. The Cavs needed the addition of one more outside shooting threat that can also play D against the opponent PF or SF with some quickness. Don’t even think that Cleveland can play Z at the PF against teams like the Magic. Forward Richard Jefferson that was traded to San Antonio from Milwaukee is EXACTLY the kind of player that could have made the Cavs much more effective against the Magic. He also would have helped against the Celtics. By getting Jefferson, the Spurs can challenge the Lakers in the west.

That brings us to the draft. ESPN NFL draft guru Mel Kiper said of a team during one draft “They clearly don’t understand what the draft is all about.” He was right then and it applies to the Cavs’ 2009 NBA draft as well. Eyenga is supposed to be very athletic. Ok, that’s nice. But any prospect that has a highlight tape that looks like it was taken by a $9 cell phone is not worth a 1^st round pick—even the 30^th pick. I admit I had never heard of Eyenga. I have a list of 150 players that I have seen and Eyenga is not on that list. He was also not on the lists of any website I have been able to find.

The point that Kiper was making is that having a good draft is a product of getting value with each pick. Do the Cavs really think that Eyenga wasn’t going to be there at 47, their other pick in the draft? He would have been there in September of 09 as an undrafted and unknown FA. With that 30^th pick, the Cavs could have gotten DeJuan Blair (PF Pittsburgh 16^th on my ranking) who is a good defender and rebounder and can score a little. The Spurs will work Blair into the rotation immediately and he will develop into a starter down the line. They could have gotten Sam Young (SF Pittsburgh) or Dante Cunningham (F Villanova). Even Richie Cunningham would have been a better pick. He played for his high school team on Happy Days didn’t he?

I did like the pick of Danny Green (SF North Carolina). He is as ready to contribute as anyone picked around him (47 overall).

So what do the Cavs do now? Get into the Hedo Turkoglu (F FA from Orlando) sweepstakes. Turk could be the guy they need to fill that other F position opposite LeBron. Turk as I predicted has opted out of his Magic contract. The Cavs need to spend the money now to get Turk and pay the luxury tax. If they fail to win it all in 09-10, they will lose LeBron and 90% of the value of the franchise.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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