NOTE: This list is the AFC only. I will have the list of NFC players Tuesday.

Sleepers

QB

Jason Campbell Raiders – The Raiders will be behind a lot and Campbell is going to throw a lot but I don’t like the WRs.

RB

Fred Taylor Pats – Dillon’s gone and Maroney averaged under 4 a carry.

Ben Tate Texans – Right now he is 3rd but Foster is average and Slaton fumbles.

WR

James Hardy Bills – He lost last season with an ACL but is the most likely to start opposite Evans

Brian Hartline Dolphins – He runs great patterns and that is what Henne needs.

Santonio Holmes Jets – He’s on the bench wk 1-4 but late in the draft he can help you win.

Donte’ Stallworth Ravens – This is a long shot but late he should be worth a look. He has a lot to prove and needs the money to pay off the family of the guy he hit.

Mike Wallace Steelers – Holmes is gone and Wallace looked good last year.

Brian Robiskie Browns – He has the best hands/route running combo on the team.

Kevin Walter Texans – Johnson gets doubled and Schaub throws to the open guy.

Legedu Naanee Chargers – There will be a lot of passes and Naanee has speed and decent hands.

TE

Dustin Keller Jets – He is the receiver option at TE with speed and hands. It looks like he got it last year.

Randy McMichael Chargers – The team will have to use 2 TEs a lot and want to reduce the load on Gates.

Handcuffs

QB

Trent Edwards and Brian Brohm Bills Edwards is the acclaimed starter but Brohm has looked good in practice.

RB

Jerome Harrison and Montario Hardesty Browns - These 2 are between handcuff and Avoid. They could be great but one will get hurt and open the spot for the other.

Darren McFadden and Michael Bush Raiders – McFadden is not capable of taking the beating of the starter and staying healthy. Bush is.

WR

Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez Colts – Gonzo was out last year and Garcon looked good. Beware of PG too early.

Avoids

QB

Jake Delhomme Browns – Until we see him throw to his guys and not the DBs, I don’t trust him.

David Garrard Jags – He and the Jags are under pressure and Garrard does not handle it well.

Vince Young Titans – Can we really trust he gets it? Not on my team.

RB

LaDainian Tomlinson Jets – Even though the Jets run a lot, don’t trust LT. I think he is done.

WR

Jags WRs – Garrard to WHO?

TE

Any Bengal TE – Palmer is going to have enough trouble keeping TO and OC happy. TE is a mess in Cincinnati right now.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Note: We will look at all the divisions of the NFL with this same point of view over the next few issues of Fryingpansports.com.

AFC South

Texans

1. Was last year the breakout season for QB Matt Schaub or will he go back to being just another guy under center? He had better be up to last year because there is nothing behind him. If he gets hurt or regresses, HC Gary Kubiak may want to tear up his new extension through 2012. His choices would be to start Dan Orlovsky or John David Booty.

2. How will the D survive the 4 game suspension for LB Brian Cushing? The team has spent top draft choices on the D line but got very little pass pressure from the front 4. Cushing won the D Rookie of the Year in 08 but was hit with the 4 game suspension.

3. Who will start at RB and can they hold onto the ball? Steve Slaton was the starter last year. He is very quick and fast but has fumbleitis. He is also coming off a season ending injury. The team drafted RB Ben Tate and expect him to get the majority of carries this year.

Colts

1. Can S Bob Sanders stay healthy this year? This D is not nearly as good without him. He is the combination of the enforcer on the line and the eraser of coverage mistakes in the backfield. I like both S Melvin Bullitt and Jamie Silva but they can not do what Sanders does for his buddies.

2. Will QB Payton Manning ever get his new deal? Face facts. This team is 8-8 without Manning. The D is suspect and the running game is invisible. Get the deal done in the uncapped year and be done with it.

3. Will the Colts ever be able to run the ball? “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!” It has been a long time since the Colts had a running game that can run out the clock at the end of the game. Even the best QB in the league needs a little balance in the O.

Jaguars

1. Will it be QB David Garrard or HC Jack Del Rio to be the first to lose their jobs? There is no seat hotter than Del Rio’s in the league. He has not been given much in the draft and the team is broke. The y have been forced to allow good players to leave as FA. Garrard got a 60M deal after having a QB rating of 102 in 07. But he has been in the 80s in each of the last 2 seasons.

2. Will any of the WRs step up to the job? Last year Mike Sims-Walker had 63 catches but that is a minimum for a #1 WR. He has had just 1 good year since being drafted in 2007. Mike Thomas should be #2 but is really a 3 at best. The rest of the roster is filled with guys that never made it elsewhere including Troy Williamson, Nate Hughes, and Kassim Osgood.

3. Can vet UFA all star LDE Aaron Kampman get the kiddie corps that will start with him to produce a pass rush? The rest of the lineup includes LDT Tyson Alualu, RDT Terrance Knighton, and RDE Derrick Harvey. They are green as baby peas but all are athletic. If they don’t step up, Kampman will be quadruple teamed on every play.

Titans

1. Is the transformation of QB Vince Young real or is it Memorex? He looked good replacing Kerry Collins who seemed to get old over a single weekend. I still don’t trust Young’s commitment to the game and willingness to spend the time in the film room to become a top QB. He has the physical ability but does not seem to process information quickly enough to succeed.

2. Will the WRs do the job? None of the Titan WRs scare defenses. They don’t catch the ball consistently and are not yard after the catch guys. RB Charles Johnson is a deep threat as a receiver but the team tends to over use him as a runner.

3. Will the losses of UFAs on D finally bring the D down? The latest losses were DL Kyle Vanden Bosch, LB Keith Bulluck and DB Nick Harper. It is hard to lose that kind of veteran leadership let alone the talent on the D. Can the new guys get the Titans’ opponents off the field on 3rd down? I doubt it.

AFC Weak–West.

Broncos

1. Which all star will HC Josh McDaniels run out of town this season? McDaniels seems to want to try to win with a bunch of guys not stars. Mac, that doesn’t work. He ran pro bowlers QB Jay Cutler out of town in 2009. This year he sent WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler out as well. The only real star they have on the team is OB Elvis Dumervil who Mac irritated by moving him from a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OB.

2. Can the Broncos get QB Tim Tebow the coaching he needs to become a quality NFL QB? As I have said before, I think Tebow can become a very good QB but he needs quality coaching. I don’t see that in Denver.

3. Can the Bronco O survive the loss of their 2 best receivers? No. WR Jabar Gaffney doesn’t run accurate patterns. QB Kyle Orton needs the WRs to be there on time at the right spot. Orton has a below average arm but that is not a problem because the speed WR is gone. Despite losing Marshall’s 100 catches a year, the biggest lost may be TE Scheffler. Sheff was Orton’s safety net. When the blocking broke down Sheff was the guy he went to bail out the O.

Chiefs

1. Will the New England West coaching staff ever get QB Matt Cassel to look as good as he did replacing Brady? No. GM Scott Pioli needed to bring in quality coaches because HC Todd Haley has no idea what he is doing. Pioli hired Charlie Weis on offense and Romeo Crennel on defense. Weis has the challenge of turning Cassel into a NFL QB.

2. Can the WRs get the job done? This seems to be a problem around the league because the drafts for WRs have been spotty at best over the last few years. Chris Chambers and Dwayne Bowe enter camp as the starters but don’t overlook RB/WR/Parking attendant Dexter McCluster. Little Mac has the quicks and elusiveness to become a real factor in the O.

3. Will the high draft choices on the D ever produce? DEs Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson were both high 1st round picks. Neither has produced like expected. Dorsey looked lost last year at DT and DE. Jackson needs to get his motor going. The DBs will have to cover a long time if the front 7 can’t do a better job putting pressure on the opponent’s QB.

Raiders

1. How much will new QB Jason Campbell help the O? Quite a bit. Al Davis blew the pick of JaMarcus Russell and threw away 2 extra seasons waiting for him to learn the O. Campbell want to prove that Washington made a mistake in letting him go.

2. When will the Raiders realize that former 1st round pick (4th overall) RB Darren McFadden is only a 3rd down back? McFadden can not be a 300 carry a year guy. He will break down. Look for RB Michael Bush to become a major factor in the running game. If not Campbell will be throwing a lot.

3. Can anyone on this team catch the ball? 2009 1st round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey is the #1 guy but he caught just 9 passes last year. Chaz Schilens is the other starter going into training camp. Enough said.

Chargers

1. Can QB Philip Rivers survive without LT Marcus McNeill and WR Vincent Jackson? McNeill protected his blind side. Tre Thomas takes over but how much does Thomas have left?

2. Without Jackson, who will catch the ball for Rivers? TE Gates is solid but the WR corps consists of Malcom Floyd, Legedu Naanee, Buster Davis, and Josh Reed. Floyd is no #1 and Naanee is unproven at best. Davis, a former 1st round pick, has been a total bust up to now. This is his last chance in SD. FA Reed is a possession receiver at best.

3. Can OLB Shawne Merriman regain his speed pass rush? Merriman is 2 years removed from his injury and this should be the year he regains his pro bowl status. If not, he won’t be back.

4. Can this team ever get over the hump and get to the Super Bowl? No and the coaching staff will be gone in 2011 with or without a new CBA.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

NFL

The Browns have announced that Hall of Fame RB Jim Brown and WR Paul Warfield will no longer serve as an advisers to owner Randy Lerner. Given the history of the Browns since the team returned in 1999, the leadership of the team needs all the advice they can get. Both will be missed.

Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger’s biggest test of the suspension is not now going back with the team and participating in the OTAs. The biggest test will be how he completes what the league has asked him to do to reduce the suspension from 6 games to 4. The other half of that test will be how he behaves or misbehaves during the time from the end of the last preseason game until he gets reinstated by the league. Under NFL rules he can have no contact with the team at all during that time except for medical staff as prescribed by the terms of the suspension. If he has another incident like the ones that got him suspended in the past, there could be games added to his “unpaid leave.”

The talk around Dolphin land at their OTA last weekend was all about the passing game. QB Chad Henne has developed nicely after replacing Chad Pennington in 09. The one thing that he needs to improve on in 2010 is his TD to Int ratio. In 09 he threw 12 TDs but 14 picks. He looked even better in the OTAs. However, a lot of “want to be” guys look good in shorts.

Eagle CB Marlin Jackson is out for the season after rupturing an Achilles tendon in the team’s OTA. The team signed Jackson from the Colts to start despite his ending the 09 season on the IR.

Packer CB Al Harris is behind schedule on his recovery from knee surgery that ended his 09 season. He was expected to participate in the OTA last week but is still on the sideline.

Ram S Oshiomogho Atogwe did not sign his tender with the team. On June 1 the Rams could have increased their offer to 7M to keep their exclusive rights for him. They did not. Atogwe is now an unrestricted free agent but the Rams are still hoping they can come to a long term contract with him. He has a history of being a ball hawk. The only question is how much in this economy is he worth. The Packers and Vikings are teams that might be interested.

Lion RB Kevin Smith is not ready to participate in OTAs and will likely start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Players on that list do not count against the roster limits but only qualify if they are hurt away from football or from an injury in the previous season. Players that are on the PUP on the final cutdown day may not be activated until after week 6.

NBA

Game 1 of the Finals goes tonight. The 2-3-2 format puts the stress most on the Celtics. To win the title, in my opinion, they must win one of the first 2 games. The latest on injuries indicates that Celtics PG Rondo will play and is 85-90% while C Perkins is OK. For the Lakers C Bynum is as good as he can be expected to be with his knee problem. He had more than 70 ccs of liquid taken out of the knee on Monday.

MLB

Tampa Bay continues to lead the AL East by 2.5 games over the Yankees. The secret has been a 21-6 record on the road. As long as the pitching holds up, the Rays could be in the race for the duration.

The Twins have built a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central over the Tigers. The Twinkies have been helped by the Tigers going 3-7 over the last 10.

The Rangers lead the AL West but both the As and Angels are coming on. The Rangers were 4-6 over the last 10 while both their pursuers were 6-4.

The two best races in MLB are in the NL. The Central and West divisions are both tight. The Reds and Cards have been trading leads in the Central for a couple of weeks. Last night the Cards beat Cincy 4-1 to climb back into a tie. The Padres have the best mark in the NL with a 32-21 record but only lead the Dodgers by 1 game in the West.

The Tigers traded former All Star P Dontrelle Willis to the Diamondbacks for P Billy Buckner and cash. The Tigers will pay all but the prorated remaining part a minimum veteran contract for Willis in 2010. Despite being a big dollar FA signing in 2008, he has only be able to start 22 games for the Tigers. In 2010 he had a 4.98 ERA and was 1-2 for Detroit.

NHL

The Flyers got back into the finals series with a 4-3 OT win yesterday. The key for Philly will be to win game 4 at home then take game 5 at Chicago. Otherwise, they could be in trouble. The Black Hawks are a lot deeper than the Flyers. As the series goes on, that should give them a real advantage.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

The Saint D

The early success that the Colts had throwing to TE Clark was the Saints failure to cover the TE. They were trying to cover Clark with a LB and S Harper over the top. When QB Manning looked Harper off, the S couldn’t get back to help out on Clark fast enough. That success passing to the TE

By the 2nd quarter, the Saint D Coordinator Williams made a change. He gave Clark man to man to Harper and let the linebacker give a little help underneath. The looks of Manning had no effect on Harper and the Saints shut Clark down the rest of the game.

The Saints D played tight coverage and changed up their D calls frequently. The combination of varied Ds and bad field position the Colts had in the second quarter kept Manning to just 6 snaps until the last series of the half.

The Saint D also made the big play of the game with the interception that resulted in a TD and took the Saint lead to 14. There were 2 keys to the play. First, CB Porter read the play and knew the ball was coming to his guy–WR Wayne. Porter played the ball perfectly. But there was another factor in the play as well. Wayne was not able to get out of his break fast enough to make the play or at least prevent the pick. As the game wore on, Wayne has lost speed I believe in part due to his injury. On the critical play his timing was off. He was only partially turned out of his break when the ball arrived.

The Saint Special teams and coaching calls.

Another major cause of the win was the aggressive calls of the coaching staff. They were taking risks to win the game. The call for the 4th down run at the goal line was gutsy. I would have tried another pass on one of the 3 attempts but Coach Payton gave the a chance to win by scoring. The onside kick showed guts as well. The bottom line was that the Saints made calls to win while the Colts tried not to lose.

The Colts

When the Colts got up by 10 points early, they changed to a zone D. The Saints QB Brees picked the zone apart like a Thanksgiving leftovers. The Colts D could not get off the field. The Saints kept Manning and Co. off the field. They never made the adjustments to tighten up the coverage or pick up the pace of the D. The entire Colt team played without urgency. That is the best way to lose there is. The team never got the fire in their belly that it takes to win the big game. They played well but just not well enough to win.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday morning at 11. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Overall:

The Colts have had to outscore their opponents all year long. When the opponent is one dimensional, the Colt D has been able to slow them down. The Jets and the Ravens were both primarily a running team and the Colts slowed the run. Against the Jets the Colts D was hit hard by the passing of Sanchez. The Colts D made him look like anything but a rookie.

Offense:

The O is the strength of the team. The line is the smartest in the league. Manning is the best QB in the game now and one of the top 5 in the history of the league. Despite having lost 2 key receivers, the team can score in a handful of seconds from anywhere on the field. They rank 2nd in passing. But, the team can’t run a lick. They were dead last in rushing.

The Colts top 2 RBs Addai and Brown averaged 3.8 and 3.6 yards per carry respectively. In the playoffs it has been even worse. Addai is still averaging 3.8 but Brown has fallen to 2.3 per attempt. The Saints are one of the best red zone Ds in the league. Because the Colts can’t run the ball well, it makes the red zone even more dangerous. Because both teams have outstanding Os, there is a lot of pressure on both to score TDs rather than FGs when they get into the scoring zone. The Saints can run a little but the Colts will have to throw the ball to score.

Injuries have taken a toll on the passing game. The latest problem is lone vet WR Wayne has strained a knee in practice. Wayne had 100 catches and is the only vet not on IR. The next 2 WRs on the depth chart are 4th round pick in the 09 draft Collie and second year WR Garcon who had a total of 4 catches in his rookie year. With both being in their first SB, there are bound to be glitters. The TE is now the strength of the passing game. TE Clark also had 100 catches and is a match-up nightmare for any team. He is too fast and mobile for a LB and too big and strong for a S. Covering him will be easier if Wayne is not 100 percent. The Saints will probably single both Collie and Garcon and double Clark if Wayne is not on the field. I think that Wayne will be at least 80% and give the Saint D problems. Clark is the key to the passing game and the O of the Colts for the Super Bowl.

Defense

All the media coverage of the D has been on DE Freeney’s ankle. The latest news is that he will try to go but is not expected to be able to contribute much. I doubt he will be able to go. DE Brock will be an adequate replacement for Freeney. He can rush the QB but is not nearly as fast as Freeney.

The key to the Colt D is speed. They are on the whole undersized. Despite this, they were able to contain if not control the running games of both the Ravens and the Jets. The key is for the D line to keep the O line off the LBs. That allows the backers to get to the ball and keep the run to under 4 yards. That is the key to the Colts stopping the run and making the Saints one dimensional.

The other key is the Colts D backfield. Rookie DB Powers has started 12 games and has played well. The question is can he overcome rookie butterflies and perform like it is any regular season game? The Colts’ DBs will struggle with the Saints WRs. WRs Colston and Henderson are both wily vets that eat things tougher than rookie CBs for breakfast. Whichever receiver Powers is on will be Brees’ favorite target. TE Shockey has not been as much of a factor as the team had hoped for but could be in this game. OB Wheeler will be the one most likely to cover Shockey. OB Session will be needed to blitz Brees unless the front 4 can generate enough pressure. Look for 3rd WR Meachem to have a big game as well. He is hard for a starting CB to cover let alone a nickel back.

The Bottom Line:

The game plan for the Colts will be to control the clock with short and medium passes so that Brees and Co. are off the field. The one factor that gives the Colts the edge is Manning. I look for a close game to be won at the end by a drive by Manning for the winning score.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday morning at 11. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Tomorrow: The NFC Conference championship game.

Jets @ Colts

Jets

The Jets are the only surprise in the playoffs. They were not even supposed to make the post season but here they are after upsets of the Bengals and Chargers. The O depends on the run WAY too much and that could be the downfall of the Jets. RB Thomas did not practice on Thursday but the absence was not injury related. They can not hope to win without a huge game from him.

The game plan of the Jets will be run the ball and hope to keep the Colts O off the field. The Colts are vulnerable to the run. But the Jets will face 46 guys in the box if they cannot pass for more than 100 yards against the Colts.

QB Sanchez has not been asked to do much passing the ball. In both games the Jets have been ahead. They will get behind against the Colts and it will be up to Sanchez to pass them to catch up. There is a great deal of doubt he can do that. The media has made a lot about rookie Sanchez winning his first 2 playoff games. He has not won them. Rather, he has not lost them for the Jets.

The Jets O line did a very solid job protecting the QB giving up just 1 sack in 2 games. More significant, C Mangold was able to handle the NT of the Chargers letting the Gs get to the second level to block for the run. He should be able to do the same against the 4-3 of the Colts.

The D of the Jets has been outstanding. It continued to stifle the opponents offense ability to pass and run. They have gotten 5 sacks in the two playoff games but have consistently put pressure on the opponent QBs. There is “but” coming however. The team has played 2 offenses that have been down in the last few games. The Bengals couldn’t score more than 24 points in any of their final 5 regular season games. Palmer looked old and was inaccurate and RB Benson was hurt and not nearly at 100%. The Chargers had only 1 good offensive effort against the wounded Titans in their last 5.

The key to the Jets D will be putting heat on QB Manning. They can disregard the run because the Colts are last in that category in the league. They also need to find a way to cover the receivers for an extended period of time. Otherwise Manning will pick the pass D apart.

Colts

For the Colts, its Manning, Manning and Manning. They have not been able to run the ball all year and will not be able to run against the Jets. The passing game should be helped by the return of WR Wayne. He had a full practice Thursday. They will need all their weapons in the passing game to compete. If they could find a way to run just a little, it could make a huge difference in the amount of pass rush the Jets can generate.

The D is hobbled by injury. They are looking for any help they can get particularly in the D backfield. They have signed S Darrick Brown (Saints) and have looked at FA CB Deltha O’Neal (Texans) due to injuries. S Sanders is on IR and S Bethea was limited in practice due to injuries. Reserve CB Powers will likely not play due to a foot injury. Bethea is critical because with the loss of Sanders, he is a key run defender.

The bottom line: I don’t think that Sanchez can take advantage of the injuries in the pas D of the Colts. The Colts can score a lot faster than the Jets. I will take the Colts to win but probably under the total points projected by Los Vegas.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday morning at 11. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.