LeBron is gone. Gilbert is 100K poorer after being fined by the NBA for his open letter to fans. The Cavs have nothing to show for LeBron leaving except a couple of late 1st and late 2nd round picks. But as always, there is more to the story than has been reported elsewhere.

First we will look at LeBron.

LeBron said that his top priority was winning. The fact is that he realized that he could not do that alone. But he wasn’t alone in the 2009-10 season. He had the best cast he ever enjoyed since turning pro. In addition to the 08-09 team, owner Dan Gilbert brought Shaq and Jamison into town to not only help LeBron but to show him the team would do whatever it could to keep him happy. That was not enough to get past the Celtics in the playoffs.

However, many including owner Gilbert believed that the failure to win against the Celtics was not so much the fault of the supporting cast as it was a failure of LeBron himself. In the three consecutive losses to the Celts, LeBron went 7-22 for 22 points, 3-14 for 15, and 8-21 for 28. That puts his shooting percentage at 34% well below his 09-10 season average of 50.3%. Jamison hit 38% which is a little more than 10% below his season average of 46.5%. Shaq sank 59% of his shots which is well above his average of 49.6 for the 09-10 season.

One of the best indications of the offensive efficiency and effectiveness of a player is points per shot. LeBron got 1.21 points per shot. During the season he averaged 1.41 pps. Jamison got .88 pps vs his season average of 1.19. Shaq came through strong in the playoff against Boston with 1.81 pps vs. his season average of 1.37.

LeBron said the city of Cleveland should forgive him for just 5 bad games in his years on the team. He knew he was not playing up to normal. The fault may have been on his injured elbow or that may have been a good excuse to tank the series.

Why would he do that? Let’s go back to the Olympics. Not the last one but the one in 2004. Wade and James talked then about playing together. They signed short contracts to allow them to become UFAs in 2010. In the 2008 games, Bosh joined in the collusion. If the Cavs had won the title in 2009-10, how could he move to Miami saying that he wanted to win? He couldn’t.

Another possibility was that after the game 2 loss to the Celts in Cleveland, LeBron realized what some have been saying for awhile. He is not a Jordan but is rather a Pippen. He is not capable of carrying a team on his back but has to be the “other” guy that helps a real star win. He will never admit that publicly but by going to Miami he has told the world he felt like he needed a star or two to win.

Dan Gilbert:

Gilbert may have really hacked off the NBA and Commish Stern but he said what he had to in order to keep the Cavs’ fan base together. We can not forget that the people of Cleveland have been disappointed so often by their sports teams. As I said in the first article on this blog years ago, it seems like God hates the Browns. That applies to the Indians and the Cavs as well. The Browns were stolen by Art Muddle. The Indians are run by an owner with all the spirit and charisma of a pet rock. Gilbert may be a little poorer but the people of Cleveland love him for his desire to win and finally standing up to James.

Leaving was bad enough but the 1 hour “LeGone” TV special was overkill. It seems to every Cavs fan that LeBron just wanted to twist the knife after inserting it into the heart of the team. “Et tu LeBron?”

Miami:

One thing that can not be overlooked is the advantage that any team in Florida has over most states and particularly Ohio. Florida has no individual income tax. Ohio is one of the highest tax states in the country. Given the amount that the “Big 3″ will earn, that fact has not been lost on them.

Finally Cleveland:

All the top drawer free agents are gone because LeBron waited so long to let the team know he was leaving. Even with LeBron, there was little chance that any one of them would come to the Cavs. Reportedly LeBron did try to convince Bosh to come but I doubt that given the background quoted above. Shaq is a UFA as well and may go elsewhere. That will leave the team with little hope for the immediate future. The only thing about which a Cavs fan can be positive is that Gilbert will do absolutely everything in his power to make the team competitive in the long and short run.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

LeBron announced tonight that he is going to play for the Heat next season. It was a good decision for him but could be fatal to the Cavilers.

In Miami he will play with both Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh and a cast of rejects and no names.

In Cleveland, there is a hole the size of the Pacific Ocean right in the middle of the starting lineup.

Miami now has a total of 6 guys on the roster. PG Mario Chalmers and C Joel Anthony will join the Second 3 (the first big 3 was the Celtics) as starters with utility man Michael Beasley most likely to be traded for multiple vets. James is used to playing 35+ minutes a night and unless the team can find a few cheap vets, he will have to. The starters should be among the best in the league. But very often, championships require a decent if not strong bench. This team will be DEEP into luxury tax land and will have to find a bench willing to play at league minimum. They do have a couple of rookies they can sign.

The Cavs now have enough cap room to sign a top free agent. But they won’t be able to do that. According to multiple reports, LeBron tried to recruit FAs to come to the Cavs including Bosh and G Ray Allen. According to one source he even tried to get the often injured Amar’e Stoudemire to come. He had no success. The result was the same for the Cavs new regime. The question is now that they have a championship quality coach, what will they do to rebuild the team?

The Cavs are rumored to be trying to sign Ryan Gomes, Jonny Flynn and Acie Law. F Gomes was a recent cut of Portland who started 64 of 76 games for the Timberwolves in 09-10. He averaged 10.9 points and 4.6 rebounds last year.

G Flynn also played for the Wolves and started all 81 games he played. He scored 13.5 points and had 4.4 assists per game.

G Law got a lot of airline miles changing teams in 2009-10. He played for Chicago, Charlotte and Golden State but only played in 26 games.

In addition, they have a couple of former draft choices in Europe including Christian Eyenga (1st round 09) and Sasha Kaun (2nd round 08).

The Cavs need some top draft choices. Based on their roster as of now, they will in the lottery for several years to come. New HC Scott should be able to get the most out of whatever talent he is given but I’m not sure that will be enough to make the playoffs next year.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

NFL

UFA Charles Grant (NO) had the involuntary manslaughter charge against him dropped. He agreed to a misdemeanor public fighting charge with a fine of $1,000, a year probation and a $20,000 payment to the victims of that confrontation. The charges stemmed from a brawl outside a nightclub that led to the death of an innocent passer by.

Texans LB Bryan Cushing has been suspended for the first 4 games for violations of the NFL drug policy. He was the D Rookie of the year last season despite having failed a test in September of 09. He appealed the decision but lost that appeal and now will serve the suspension.

RFA OG Daryn Colledge signed his tender with the Packers.

We will see a lot of RFA players signing their tenders between now and June 15th. On that date NFL teams can lower the offer and the period for players to get an offer from another team has already expired.

The political left is insisting that the NFL pull the Super Bowl scheduled for Arizona due to the recent law that enforces federal law in the state. I suspect that the gutless Commissioner Goodell will do that despite the fact that the left including President Obama is lying about the law to the public. He knows that the law exactly mirrors the federal law but continues to mislead the public with the help of the traditional media. Both he and Goodell (if he caves to the left) should be ashamed.

NBA

The Orlando Magic look like they are a sure bet for the Eastern finals. That is not the case with the Cavs. They took back home court advantage with an impressive win at Boston Friday but Sunday looked like they didn’t care who wins the series. The thing that concerns Cavs fans is that the team seems to exhibit no sense of urgency to close out the Celtics. If they play game 5 in Cleveland like they did game 4, the Celts will win back the home court advantage.

Los Suns was worn on the uniforms in an NBA playoff game. The team should have been fined for each uniform in the same amount that a player would have been fined for a violation of league uniform rules. Not only should the NBA stay out of politics, it should learn Spanish and at the very least get it right.

MLB

The game and the world will miss Earnie Harwell. He was a Hall of Fame announcer but even a better human being.

Indian closer Kerry Wood has been cleared to return to the mound. As always with Wood, the only question is how long he will be able to pitch?

A large part of the problems of the Red Sox has been the struggles of SP Josh Beckett. When 98 year old knuckle baller Tim Wakefield takes your place in the rotation you have really been bad.

A’s pitcher Dallas Braden threw a perfect game this week.

NHL

Although they got to the second round, the Red Wings looked very old in losing their playoff series 4 games to 1. Look for the team to be significantly different next season.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Not that long ago most NFL teams gave a rookie QB 2 or 3 years to mature and learn the game. However, that has changed in recent years and it may be changing again.

First round QBs are expected to start quickly and some of them are able to do that. The recent success of Roethlisberger (PT), Sanchez (NJ), and Ryan (AT) make us forget the list of those that have crashed and burned in recent years.

We start with 2007 because it is too soon to evaluate players being a bust from the 08 or 09 drafts.

2007-1st pick JaMarcus Russell Oakland Russell has thrown a total of 18 TDs and 23 picks since joining the league. He has a career passer rating of 65.2. In the 2010 draft the team traded for Campbell to replace him.

2007-22nd pick Brady Quinn Cleveland He didn’t get thrown into the game immediately but that still didn’t help him. In 3 years he had a rating of 66.8. He was traded to Denver this year for a bucket of water. They were so impressed with Quinn that they used a 1st round pick on QB Tim Tebow.

2006-3rd pick Vince Young Tennessee His first 2 years he was the starter and had passer ratings of 66.7 and 71.1. He got benched in 08 and the first part of 09 but came back after learning a little more about the game and had some success.

2006-10 Matt Leinart Arizona He started in game 5 of 06 and threw 11 TDs but 12 picks. He ended that year with a QBR of 74. He was named the starter in 07 but was done after 5 games with a QBR of 61.9. He has started 1 game since. He will have to fight for the job this year because the Cards traded for Anderson after Kurt Warner retired.

2006-11th Jay Cutler Denver Cutler was quite successful in his first 3 years with QBRs of 88.5, 88.1 and 86.0 before wearing out his welcome forcing a trade to Chicago. There he threw 27 TDs but 26 picks and a QBR of a mediocre 76.8.

2005-1st overall Alex Smith San Francisco Smith started the last 5 games of 05 and all of 06. But 7 games into 07 he was pulled for an undrafted FA. Even with a QBR in 09 of 81.5 his career number is 69.2. In his first 3 seasons he threw 19 TDs but 31 picks.

2005-25th Jason Campbell Washington Campbell sat out 05 but started 7 games in 06, 13 games in 07 and every game since. Despite improving his stats each year, he was traded to the Raiders this season for a 4th round pick in 2012. That is the equivalent of a 6th round pick this draft.

So in the 3 seasons we looked at, there were 7 first round QBs picked and only Cutler has been successful enough to be named a replacement pro bowler after a couple of others backed out. Young may be on the upswing after sitting for a year and a half. The rest were pretty much busts. Those busts set their teams back several seasons except the Cards that had future Hall of Fame QB Warner in reserve.

So what is the problem? There are several factors that are making the drafting of a QB in the first round less likely now and perhaps prohibitive in the near future.

The first cause is cost. The price of a QB as the 1st pick in 2010 will be 50 million in cash guarantees. Bradford will get that even if he never plays a down for the Rams. The Rams were willing to take offers to trade down but even in an uncapped year there were no serious bids for the pick.

The more pressing issue is the spread offense of the College game. More and more college teams are using a version of the spread and QBs that play 3 or 4 years in that system are not at all prepared to come to the NFL.

The pass patterns that the spread runs are very limited. The most frequent pattern is the bubble screen. There are very few teams that use the route tree like that of the NFL. The favorite pattern in the NFL is the skinny post. Very few college QBs even know what that is.

WRs are wide open in college but are not open at all in the NFL. As a result, QBs are not forced to make the throw to the back shoulder of a WR. There is accuracy in college but that does not relate to accuracy in the NFL.

The average QB is in the shotgun 90+ percent of the time. They never have to worry about the 3, 5, and 7 step drop back. Footwork is critical to accuracy and almost none of the QBs coming into the league have consistent footwork.

The CBs that an NFL QB faces every week are better than any that a college QB in his career. The college kid has seldom seen a rotating zone or combination man/zone D. Those are used every week in the NFL.

The worst part of the spread is that QBs never have to make more than 2 reads of the defense. Bradford was not even looking at the D prior to the snap. He was always looking for the coach’s call from the sideline. It takes time to learn to do pre-snap reads. An NFL QB has to know where the pressure is likely to originate and has to adjust to it.

The more the rookie 1st round QBs cost the more pressure there is to put them under center Day 1. But given the complexities of the NFL defenses and the lack of NFL offenses in college, the more expensive QB is less prepared to come into the league.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

2009 Lakers Rockets Playoff Matchup

In 2009 the Lakers were thought to be the team to beat. They had won over 60 games and were second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers in total wins in the NBA that year. It was thought little stood in their way between the start of the playoffs and an NBA finals appearance against the winner of the eastern conference. The experts were wrong. The Lakers Rockets playoff match up proved to be a great series and almost sent the Lakers home for the summer.

The 2009 Rockets were not considered favorites in the playoffs, in fact many thought the Lakers would beat them in five games. The Rockets were without the oft injured Tracy Mcgrady for the whole series and lost Yao Ming after game three of the series. After Yao Ming was injured many thought the series was all but over, they were in for a surprise.

Even though they were down 2-1 when they lost their superstar center, the Rockets were able to extend the series to seven games. Ron Artest was key to helping the Houston Rockets stay in this series. He played defense against anybody he was asked to cover and scored when he had to. Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest seemed to have a rivalry going on with each other during the series. The Lakers Rockets series kept NBA fans nationwide glued to their television sets waiting to see who would prevail. Many fans couldn’t believe the fight that the Rockets put up without two of their superstars.

While the series ended in game seven with a 19 point Lakers victory, many people gained a great deal of respect for the game Houston Rockets and for their superstar Ron Artest who had a never say die attitude and played hard until the very end. It seems that Ron Artest grew fond of the Lakers and Kobe Bryant during their series, as he went on to sign with the Lakers during the free agency period in the summer of 2010.

The first round of the Draft is Thursday so it is time for my “fearless” predictions of what the Browns won’t do in the draft.

Round 1: No. 7 overall There has been some talk about the Browns trading with the 49ers for their 13th & 17th picks. The value of this pick is 1500. The 13+17 equal 2100. To do the deal the Browns would have to give their 2nd pick (#38 520) and their last pick in the 3rd (#92 132). They would likely get an early 5th round back as part of the deal. In short, I doubt this deal gets made.

Another rumor is that they would trade up to 5 and give the Chiefs 7 and #72 in the third round. I don’t like this deal because I don’t see that much difference between Berry and Thomas. I would take Thomas and save the 3rd round choice.

S Earl Thomas Texas The Browns need a FS badly. It is looking like KC will take Berry or Thomas at 5 and if they pass on him the Seahawks might grab one or the other at 6. If Berry is there, they would take him. However on many draft boards, Thomas has moved over Berry. I prefer Berry as a player by the thinnest of margins due to his greater experience. But Thomas at FS is a better fit for the Browns and has a higher up side. He has better cover skills, is a more consistent tackler and can be as good a center fielder. They will not pick him but they should.

Round 2: No. 38 overall DT/3-4 DE Brian Price UCLA There is a better than average chance that Rogers will be the guest of the Federal Government in 2010. The team needs another NT badly. Price is 4th on my DT list but is not quite big enough yet to be a NT but he will grow into it. He is young and athletic enough to play DE in the 3-4 as well. He is a trouble maker for the O with a great motor and quickness to get into the backfield. He forces fumbles and interceptions. Watch him vs USC.

Backup plan: Cam Thomas DT North Carolina Thomas has the size and the athleticism. I question his motor but that is not unusual for big men. He can rush the passer and is a rock in the middle of the line against the run.

Backup plan: DT Lamarr Houston Texas He is rising as more people watch tape. He can be disruptive but is not as consistent as Price. If you can get into his head he has everything to become a very good pro.

Backup plan: NT Terrence Cody Alabama Cody is the last resort because he looks disinterested despite his physical abilities. I am concerned about Cody’s dedication to football but if anyone can handle him it is DC Ryan. There is a real risk of him eating his way out of the league.

Round 3: No. 71 overall QB Dan LeFevour Central Michigan The team needs a QB that can throw the ball through the winds of Cleveland in December and hopefully someday in January. Almost every mock has them taking McCoy in the 2nd round. I believe NT is a much more pressing need than QB. Lefevour has above average arm strength and size. They might be able to wait to pick 85 to take him but to be sure they need to take him here.

Backup plan: QB Tony Pike Cincinnati I like Pike almost as much as LeFevour but Pike is a little less constant.

Backup plan: ILB Navorro Bowman Penn State Bowman is rising fast. He is a solid run stopper in the mold of Dan Connor from PS now with the Panthers.

Round 3: No. 85 overall CHANGE: WR Carlton Mitchell South Florida This is a tough pick because it is just below the end of the second level of players. If they could trade this pick for a 2nd next year that would be a good move. However, if not Mitchell has deep speed and can stretch the field. He has great instincts and has fallen a little in 09 because he lost his Senior QB at USF to injury.  He needs work on running patterns but which WR doesn’t.

Backup plan: TE Anthony McCoy USC McCoy is the best available here that also fits a need. McCoy is a good receiver and willing blocker. He is one of the top combo TEs in the draft.

Round 3: No. 92 overall LB Jason Worilds Virginia Tech Worilds is a DE that will transition to OB in the 3-4. He has the speed to attack the QB and enough quicks to cover when needed. He is solid against the run and has the instincts to attack it. He could play IB or OB.

Backup plan: Javier Arenas CB Alabama Arenas is rising again. Originally he was the guy and Jackson was the “other” corner for the Tide. But his speed in the 40 drove his draft potential down. He got a lot of action because Bama was ahead so often and has good instincts. His 4.6 40 has pushed him into the 3rd round.

Round 5: No. 134 overall SS Larry Asante Nebraska Asante is a solid player against both the run and the pass. If the Browns pick FS Thomas, Asante could be the perfect compliment at SS. He is a great special teams player with the kind of up side that suggests that he could step in to start in 2011. The team has only 1 S on the roster with any experience.

Backup plan: Riley Cooper WR Florida Coop is not fast but gets open and catches everything.

Backup plan: Greg Hardy DE Mississippi He led the SEC in sacks in 08 and is big enough and quick enough to play DE in the 3-4. He needs to work on lower body strength and use his hands better. He has a history of injury which is why he may be available in the 5th.

Round 5: No. 146 overall OT Ed Wang Virginia Tech Wang his a value here but should still be on the board. He is a RT that can drive block with the best of them but is needs to improve his technique on pass protection. He has good awareness and the ability to get to the second level blocking. He can play G as well as RT. He is a natural knee bender with real pop at the point of attack.

Backup plan: Eric Olsen C/G Notre Dame Olsen is a perfect backup interior lineman. He is technically sound with the feet to pull from either G or C and block on the edge. He is also a knee bender and uses leverage effectively.

Round 5: No. 160 overall WR Armanti Edwards Appalachian State The former AS quarterback is the guy that let the upset Michigan in 07 as a Soph. He understands routes and runs a 4.41 40. He is an outstanding smart athlete and the team can use all of those they can get.

Backup plan: Andrew Quarless TE Penn State He has decent speed and great upside. If the team hasn’t gotten a TE he would be a great value here.

Backup plan: ILB Phillip Dillard Nebraska Phillips is one of the top IB prospects but is lower ranked due to a history of injury. He is a downhill player with good instincts and had 11 tackles for loss in a tough Nebraska D.

Round 6: No. 177 overall LB O’Brien Schofield Wisconsin Schofield probably won’t be able to play in 2010 due to a knee injury in the Senior Bowl practices but he has outstanding instincts and a non-stop motor. He is quick enough to blitz and is a knee bender. He could become an all pro in the future. At the EW Shrine game he was outstanding at OB after just a couple of practices at the position. If he was healthy he would have been a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick.

Backup plan: OB Arthur Moats James Madison Moats is another transition with a great motor but very green. At this point, teams are looking for a player with one above average skill. Moats’ skill is the ability to rush the passer but he is a year or 2 away.

Backup plan: A.J. Edds OB Iowa or OB Kavell Conner Clemson Both of these guys are run stuffers with enough speed to rush the QB.

Round 6: No. 186 overall OB Keenan Clayton Oklahoma Clayton is listed by almost every expert as undraftable. But when you watch him play he is outstanding. He can cover the TE down the field with quick hands to knock the ball away but then stuff the run after taking out the blockers. He has great instincts. Take a look at the OU Texas game and you will see what I do.

Priority Undrafted Rookies:

Jacob Hickman C Nebraska He is not a great athlete but at C he doesn’t have to be. He is a very hard worker with above average technique and a mean streak. He gets to the LB and runs hard to get blocks down field on runs.

Brandon Minor RB Michigan He is a tough guy that can move the pile up the gut. He has outstanding vision and balance even when hit.

Cordarrow Thompson DT Virginia Tech He is athletic with a good motor. He is not as instinctive but gets through double teams to put pressure on the QB and collapse the pocket.

Jevan Snead QB Mississippi I am not sure he will be undrafted but if he is he deserves a look. He had a very bad 09 but coming into that year he was considered one of the top 3 QBs. He had an outstanding 08 and is much better than he showed in 09.

Doug Worthington DT Ohio State He is a rotational player that can make some plays in both the pass and the run. He can play DE in the 3-4 as well. I believe in football or basketball, you never have enough good big guys. If the coaching staff can keep him focused and his motor going, he can help a team.

Donovan Waren CB Michigan He is able to cover man to man effectively. He has decent speed and fluid hips. He handles multiple moves effectively without losing contact with the receiver. He has quick hands and is effective at knocking the ball away. He plays his best in big games.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.