In business competition is necessary to insure the best performance. Anywhere there is no competition like in education, the results seem to decline with time. But a QB competition for the starting spot on an NFL team nearly always ends in disaster.

Anderson rode into the stadium on a white horse to pick up the pieces of Charlie Frye that were scattered all over the field after the first half of the Steeler game to open the 07 season. We found out later that Frye had been traded away between the 3rd and 4th quarters of that game.

He ended 07 with a slightly above average QB rating but there were signs of trouble for anyone that was watching. In the last 5 games of the 07 regular season he threw 7 TDs but 8 picks. When the pressure was on to make the playoffs with a win over the Bengals, he threw 4 picks and lost the game. He got his pro bowl status only after a gaggle of higher rated QBs backed out of the post season exhibition. The league had figured him out even if the Browns leadership had not.

But compared to the dismal QB play the team had suffered through since home town hero Bernie Kosar was released, Anderson looked like the second coming of Otto Graham. He was given a new deal and the team thought it was set at QB.

What happened to Anderson was simple. He was the victim of a pair of drive bye QB competitions. He developed a stiff neck looking over his shoulder at QB Quinn who the team had traded back into the first round of the 07 draft to take. Coach Crennel told the media he had “flipped a coin” to decide who would start at QB.

In the early games of 08, Anderson’s interception problems continued. When the bye came in week 5 he had thrown 3 TDs but 6 picks. For the rest of that year he and Quinn traded injuries and starts. The season was such a disaster that HC Crennel was fired and 5 minutes later Mangini was named the new football Czar.

The beginning of the 09 season was a disaster. It was a pre-planned 4 alarm fire because no one including the new HC knew who was going to start at QB. Quinn and Anderson split snaps during training camp and starts in the preseason. In game 4 in order to keep the Vikes guessing who would win the horse race for QB, Mangini didn’t play either one. That was a mistake but not as much as just picking one and giving him the best chance to succeed by giving his choice as many reps as possible prior to the first game.

Mangini proved to be a lot more patent than his predecessor. He started his choice–Quinn–for the first 2 games before pulling the plug. Anderson went in and continued to complete a high percentage of his passes. Unfortunately for the Browns he seemed to find defenders as often as he did his team mates. After the bye in week 9, Quinn was back and Anderson was an after thought. He did come back only when Quinn was hurt to play toward the end of the season but everyone in Cleveland knew his time there was over. He is not a has been. He is a “never was.”

Anderson is not the first QB to be ruined by a QB controversy. When there is an open competition, the locker room is automatically divided between the two guys. Some back each one. That is a formula for disaster. One of my favorite players of the “new” Browns, QB Kelly Holcomb, was also ruined by a QB competition. In 02, the Browns made the playoffs but starting QB Couch was hurt. Holcomb came in and threw for 429 yards against the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the wild card game. He ended up in that game with a 107 QB rating and the season with a 92.9 QBR. That was the beginning of the Couch/Holcomb QB competition and the end of both QB’s careers.

New football Czar Holmgren said that he will not allow a QB controversy but both Quinn and newly arrived former Seahawk Seneca Wallace both believe they will be the starter. We will have to see what happens.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday afternoons at 1 Eastern. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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This week is the half way mark in the season. Tuesday we will look at what the playoffs look like as well as the second half. But this week there are a couple of key games to watch.

DV @ BA

The second half of the Bronco schedule is a lot harder than the first half. They play the Steelers next along with the Giants, the Colts and the Eagles. Sunday we will see if the Bronco O is a competitor for the Super Bowl or just a pretender. Their O line has not faced a D like the Ravens even if the Ravs are not playing as well as they have in the past.

The Bronco D has played well against some of the weakest offenses in the history of the NFL. We will see how they look against a balanced Raven O. QB Flacco is playing very well and will challenge a questionable Bronco defensive backfield.

The Ravens have to tighten up the D. The pass coverage has been far below what it was in previous years. This season they replaced both CBs and Foxworth and Washington have not produced like McAlister and Rolle have in recent years. As a result, the D is giving up more passing yards and forced to blitz more.

The Ravens need the win much more than Denver and win the game.

SF @ IN

The 49ers have played well and are 3-3 going into Indy. Smith is going to start at QB which has been the weakness of the team. RB Gore is healthy and the Colts have trouble stopping the run. S Sanders is back for the Colts and that will help against Gore.

The 49er D has been very strong but has not faced an O like Manning and Co. The SF O and the Colt D are a standoff. It will be the Colt O that gives Indy the win.

MN @ GB

The return of Farve is all the media is talking about. But those that have watched Viking games realize that Favre is the icing not the cake itself. RB Peterson is the key player on the O for the Vikes. The Pack D has played well but has gotten most of their numbers against weak teams like the Browns and the Lions.

However, the key will be the Viking D against a very potent O of the Pack. The Packers have suffered injuries on the O line and the Viking pass rush will be the difference. If the Vikes can put enough heat on Pack QB Rodgers, the Vikes will win in a close game.

The Vikes won at home and should win again in Favre’s return.

AT @ NO

The Monday night game should be a very good one. The Falcons come in 2 games behind the Saints at 4-2. They really need to win to get within striking distance of the division leader. The Falcon O has scored 21 points in each of the last 2 games. That won’t be nearly enough against the NFL’s top offense. They will need to play the best game defensively of the season and still score 35 to have a chance to win.

The Saints D has played way above expectation. It has been helped by the pressure that the O puts on the opposition. Very often the D can just worry about rushing the passer because the Saints are so far ahead of the opponent. The D has not faced a team that could match them score for score as the Falcons can on a good day.

But their visit to the Big Easy will be anything but and the Saints win comfortably.

QB changes around the league

The Titans will start Young to see what he can do. At 0-6, its about time. I will have some additional suggestions for them next week.

Despite cries of protest and the most abysmal lack of offense in years, the Browns will continue to start Anderson. He has a passer rating of 40.6. If a QB goes 0-1 without an interception, the rating is 39.6. He is completing just 43.8 % of his throws. Quinn has a pr of 62.9 and a 60.8 completion rate. Give him a chance.

The 49ers have replaced QB Hill with former 1^st overall pick Smith. Hill had a qb rating of 79.6 but Smith in very limited action has a 118.6. I don’t believe that Smith is that much better than Hill and in more extensive action will prove it. We will see how he does against an only fair D backfield of the Colts.

Raider fans have to be wondering what the D could do if Davis had not cut the vet QB Garcia. Russell has a rating of 47.2. The only QB with any experience on the team is Gradkowski who has proven beyond a doubt he isn’t an NFL qb. Like the Browns, the Raiders will have a very long season.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Teams in serious trouble from the bad to the terrible

The Redskins (2-5) have taken the play calling away from coach Zorn. The main problem is not Zorn and it is not the QB. QB Campbell has a passer rating of 85. Given some of the teams on this list, that is not great but not that bad. Injuries have hurt the team badly. RB Portis is not healthy, they lost their all pro LT Samuels for the season and now the team has lost its best receiver TE Cooley for several weeks with a broken bone in his ankle.

But the real problem of the Redskins has been the draft. The Redskins have traded for players because they couldn’t find good ones in the draft. The down side of doing that is they are always old and always injury prone. The lack of middle round picks over the years have robbed them of quality depth. When a starter gets hurt, there is a large drop off in the abilities of the replacement. This year they will have another high pick but many of the rounds have already been traded away. Zorn will be fired but no one could get this team improved without cleaning out the front office as well.

The Raiders (2-5) will never get better until Davis gives up the control of the team. He makes a huge mistake like drafting QB Russell and will not admit it. He refuses to have anyone on his staff that criticizes him or his decisions.

The Lions (1-5) are actually turning the corner toward respectability. When QB Stafford went down it hurt that effort but he should be back soon. There are still a lot of holes to fill but not having GM Millen calling the shots will help. He was a disaster.

The Chiefs (1-6) won the contest for QB Cassell but that was not a great choice. He has struggled to a passer rating of 73. The team has suspended their star RB Johnson to whom they gave millions in a contract extension just to see him run for a staggering 2.7 per carry. He made some politically incorrect remarks and will be AOL for awhile. The D is terrible as well. The only good news is that they are in the AFC Least division in the West. Even with their problems, they may get past the Raiders for 3^rd in the division.

The Cleveland Tans are just a shadow of their former greatness. Mangini was the wrong pick for coach and he gave their top pick away for nothing. QB Anderson has a passer rating just above 40. Mangini has purged the roster of players he did not pick and brought in a lot of former Jets. So far then new guys have been a bust along with his draft picks. I have put a plan for rebuilding the team posted on NFLDraftDog.com.

The Titans (0-6) are in serious trouble because they are bad and old. They have the oldest starting 22 in the league. But they do have an outstanding coach Fisher. They lost DT Haynesworth in free agency and their D has not been anything close to as good without him.

The Rams (0-7) have some weapons on O but lack the blocking to make them effective. They drafted RT Smith (Baylor) to replace Orlando Pace but he was unable to beat out LT Barron and now is a reserve behind RT Goldberg. They did hit the jackpot with 2^nd round pick IB Laurinaitis who is starting and playing well. The problem for so long has been bad coaching and worse drafting. There is little to suggest that they know where the corner is let alone finding a way to get around it. So far the new staff hasn’t gotten much done.

The Buccaneers (0-7) have a new coach and new front off staff. The problem is they still have the same team. They have made a QB change but that has not helped. They used their 1^st pick on QB Freeman that won’t contribute for 2 or 3 years. They just don’t have a lot of talent on the team. They did get some decent talent later on in the draft including a couple of D linemen that are in the rotation. They have a long way to go to get back up to the middle of the pack.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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QB News:

Miami: QB Chad Pennington is likely out for the season. According to ESPN, he suffered a torn capsule in his shoulder. He is getting a second opinion. I hope he can recover from the injury. He has always had the head of a coach, the heart of a lion and the arm of a chicken. But he is a perfect QB for the Dolphin O. Former 2^nd round pick Chad Henne from Michigan will start for the time being.

St. Louis: QB Mark Bulger has a rotator cuff injury. He will miss significant time.

Tampa Bay: Coach Morris announced that Josh Johnson will be the starter replacing Byron Leftwich who will be the #3 QB behind rookie Josh Freeman.

Cleveland: Brady Quinn was replaced by Derek Anderson to start the second half. As usual, no information has been made public about who will start next week against the Bengals. He will announce his latest victim on Wednesday.

Quinn has shown nothing in 2+ games. Anderson moved the ball much better in the 2^nd half but threw 3 picks. In my opinion, Mangenus will select Anderson but he should stick with Quinn. We all know that Anderson is not going to get this team back to respectability. Let the kid play. The team is not going anywhere this year anyway. I will have a lot more to say about the Browns Wednesday on NFLDraftDog.com

Teams that are in some trouble:

Dolphins – The team was not going to repeat as division champion anyway. But they are 0-3 and Pennington is hurt. They will not make the playoffs.

Browns – They may get the #1 draft choice overall but Mangini will trade it for a bag of balls.

Titans – This team will recover. They are much better than both the Jags and the Texans. But at 0-3 the playoffs are in question.

Chiefs – Who cares?

Redskins – What do you expect when you have a bad QB and a rookie O Coordinator?

Bucs – This is the worst team in the NFC and that is saying a lot.

Cowboys – If the Boys don’t win tonight Jerry Jones is going to have to fire his coach before the end of the season—the sooner the better.

Panthers – The QB problem is going to keep the team from getting better. Matt Moore is their backup! Good planning guys.

Seahawks – Starter Matt Hasselbeck is out and backup Seneca Wallace is in. That is trouble for the team that is already 1-2. The only thing they have in their favor is the fact that the St. Louis Lambs are in their division.

Lambs – The Lambs are going to fight the Browns for the 1^st pick overall. They have less talent but perhaps are better off in the locker room.

We will look at the College game and NFL teams going in the right direction later in the week.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Why hasn’t QB Vince Young developed in Tennessee?

Young’s biggest problem is that he hasn’t developed the vision and anticipation for both his receivers and the coverage. Part of that is because he played in the spread at Texas. There he had wide open receivers running all over the field. He has to spend more time in the film room and understand that the NFL definition of “open” is about 1/8^th the separation of the college version of the the same thing.

On the pick that Browns LB Hall ran in for the TD, Young never saw Hall. That is a perfect example of his lack of vision and recognition of coverage. On the next drive 5 plays 80 yards, the biggest single play was Young’s scramble. He can make plays with his feet. That will win some games in the regular season but not AFC South titles or Super Bowls. And those are the things that the Titans want most of all. The Titans need a passing QB that can run rather than a runner that passes a little.

This explains why Young has double the number of INTs than TDs. As you get closer to the endzone, the coverage is compressed due to less yards to cover. If you struggle reading coverages in the middle of the field, you will really struggle in the red zone just like Young does.

What is the key differences between Anderson and Quinn?

The ability to process information quickly and the touch and accuracy on the short pass or screen pass. The Browns are not going to have much of a running game this year. That necessitates the short passing game to replace the yards that the running game should generate. Quinn is much more accurate at circle patterns where the RB goes around the end and across the middle just behind the LBs, the screen pass, and the swing pass where the RB slants to the sideline.

There is no question that Anderson has the much stronger arm. But he tends to trust his arm too much and throws into coverage because he believes he can “squeeze” the ball in between defenders. That leads to some really nice completions. It also leads to a lot of interceptions which is something that Coach Mangini will not abide.

Scouting Report: Bret Favre v Texans

Any game that starts with your RB going up the gut for 75 yards and a TD is going to be a good one. There is nothing wrong with Favre’s eyes. He sees the field fine and processes information as fast as he always has. He moves instinctively and finds receivers down field with guys in his face. He still has the touch to drop the ball over the blitzing LB on a screen pass. He still has the hard count to pull the D offside on a key play.

He is not the rifle armed QB he used to be. He struggles to get the ball out on a line when he is falling back to avoid a sack. And to throw the deep ball he has to wind up and change his delivery. He also has to do that when he has to throw the fast ball in between defenders. He used to be able to throw the ball 50 yards on a line with a flick of his wrist. But next month he will turn 40.

He has a much better running game, O line and defense than he had in New York. Besides, half a Favre is better than any other QB on the Vikings roster.

Why does it take college WRs a couple of years to develop in the NFL?

Most top college WRs depend on physical ability and speed to get open against a lot of average DBs in college. They are so much better athletes than the average DB that they don’t have to work to get open on technique like running crisp pattern and making fakes before their break. In the NFL the DBs are equal in physical talent and speed. The only way an NFL WR gets open is to run precise patterns and make sharp cuts. He also has to always be aware of the line to gain and the sideline. That is a lot to think about for a young WR.

Another factor is the use of the spread offense in college. The spread doesn’t focus on patterns but on flooding zones and quick reads. In college someone is always open. In the NFL, the word open takes on a whole new meaning. Open in the pros is a half step or body position rather than a window a couple of yards wide like in college.

A third factor that is not often discussed is the hits that NFL receivers take. The first NFL hit by a corner or safety is as hard as the best hit a WR got in his entire college career. It takes a while to be able to considerate on the catch and not hear the footsteps of a 210 pound safety with his sites on your chest.

KC rookie head coach Todd Haley fires OC Chan Gailey.

There is no question that the Chiefs offense wouldn’t score against air. Gailey was part of the problem but there are a lot more troubles than him. You have a QB that is unproven. Yes Matt Cassel played well in New England. But the Chiefs don’t have Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the Pats O line. They have Dwayne Bowe (a great physical talent but very inconsistent) and Bobby (I’m always hurt) Engram and a very young O line.

You also have a very over rated RB in Larry Johnson who has missed 12 games in the last 2 years with injuries. Now your QB may be hurt. Gailey wasn’t your problem. Your team is your problem. It’s a good thing you are new because this group is bad enough to get any head coach fired.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Rookie QB Matt Ryan had a storybook season last year. He stepped into a team that desperately needed leadership and provided it. He seems to have all the physical and mental traits that a team needs to be more than effective offensively. The one area of development is the ability to know what the D is doing and anticipate it. That will come with experience. But right now he is good enough to win the NFC South again this year. He had better stay healthy because there is nothing of NFL quality behind him.  He is a fantasy star.

RB Michael Turner has become a force in the running game. He answered any questions about his ability to start last season gaining over 1,700 yards. He has power and speed which is a combination in short supply around the league. Jerious Norwood is a solid starting quality back and young Thomas Brown is green and needs snaps to develop. FB Ovie Mughelli is a force and is not too far from pro bowl performance.

WR Roddy White and Michael Jenkins looked a great deal better with Ryan at QB. Funny how that works. White is already at all pro level and Jenkins is getting there. Brian Finneran is the only vet talent on the bench after the season ending injury to Harry Douglas. Because both Turner and Norwood are adequate receivers out of the backfield, that should be enough given their new TE. The future Hall of Fame Tony Gonzalez will become Ryan’s new safety valve. Gonzalez isn’t as fast as he was once but he is still among the most reliable TEs in the league. The team will use 2 TEs at times and Ben Hartsock is the blocking half of the duo.

The O line is mostly non-brand name guys but are adequate and got some additional depth in 09. The line is transitioning from lighter quicker linemen to big run blocking guys that move the pile. LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo figure to be the starters with Brett Romberg, Jeremy Newberry and Will Svitek providing starting experience in the past. The young but injury prone C/G Ben Wilkerson has talent but has not been able to stay healthy enough to win a starting job.

The D line is a weak point of the team. RDE John Abraham is the leader and provides the most pass rush but has had injury problems over the last few years. The other 3 starting spots are question marks. Pressure is on both rookie DT Peria Jerry and 07 first round pick E Jamaal Anderson. They must be effective if the team is to get very far in the playoffs. Up to now Anderson has been a disappointment. T Jonathan Babineaux shows flashes of being a quality starter but is inconsistent. There is not much quality depth behind them.

The linebacker group has been totally reworked. MB Curtis Lofton is the only holdover. WB Michael Peterson was signed from Jacksonville and should be an improvement. SB Stephen Nicholas has the inside track to the starting spot. Coy Wire provides about the only experience on the bench.

FS Erik Coleman is the only sure thing in the D backfield. He is solid but not special. S Thomas DeCoud and one of my sleeper picks rookie William Moore from Missouri will battle for the SS spot. Brent Grimes and Chris Owens will battle for the CB spot opposite Chris Houston. Houston improved last year but needs to keep developing.

OVERALL: The team will need to play keep away by continuing to run the ball to win. The D as a whole is the weaker side of the team. The Falcons will have to fend off the Saints to win the division but will not advance in the playoffs unless the D comes around. The D won’t and the Falcons will be one and done again.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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I live at a lake. I see people fall off their jet skies all the time. The craft just goes around in a circle. That is what has happened to the Cowboys. They have not won a playoff game since Romo was in high school. Without a coach in control of a pro team, the franchise will not advance.

The reason that Wade Phillips is still the coach must be that Jerry Jones wants to surround himself with lackeys. We know that Jones knows a coach when he sees one because he has had a couple of the best in the history of the game. So why Phillips? Because Jones wants to be “the” star of stars in Dallas. Phillips couldn’t be a star in a basketball league of 5 year olds.

QB Tony Romo is more of a pop culture star than an NFL star. He seems to lack the discipline to move from good to great. Can you imagine him lacking discipline in a Bill Cowher or Bill Belichick locker room? Romo has “weak-itis.” He rolls up big numbers against the weak teams but folds in the big games in the 4^th quarter when it counts the most. That in part has prevented the Cowboys from getting to the Super Bowl. Experienced QB John Kitna is now the backup and have drafted the QB of the future in Rudy Carpenter. The future may be sooner rather than later if Romo doesn’t play better this year.

The Boys took the “excuse” of Terrell Ownes away. But in doing that, they also took the best WR on the team away as well. What the Boys are left with are two “maybe’s.” The starters are Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. Williams has yet to prove he can be the #1 guy. Crayton will make an unbelievable catch then drop two easy ones. He also has difficulty getting open. The bench consists of Miles Austin, Sam Hurd and a group of rejects and newbies.

The one guy that Romo can count on is all pro TE Jason Witten. He is consistent, tough, and seems to always be open. 6-7 Martellus Bennett is his backup.

The Boys might be better off being a run first team. They are loaded at RB. Marion Barber is a top back and Felix Jones isn’t far behind. Add to that Tashard Choice and Keon Lattimore and you have a stable of very good RBs.

Three starters on the O line are fine. G Leonard Davis and C Andre Gurode should be probowl players again. RT Marc Colombo is OK and can be good if he applies himself. The left side of the line is the potential problem. G Kyle Kosier is coming off of an injury in his foot. LT Flozell Adams is no where close to what he was and seemed to get old in a hurry. He needs to be replaced this year but there is no replacement on hand. He will be gone next season for sure.

On the D line, the questions are at end. LE Marcus Spears has shown flashes of great ability but is consistently inconsistent. He is in the final year of his deal and will produce or move on. Ex-Charger Igor Olshansky replaces UFA Chris Canty. Igor is average at best but there is no quality depth. The NT is pro bowler Jay Ratliff. He collapses the pocket and had 7.5 sacks last year. He needs help at E. His backup will be Junior Siavii orTim Anderson.

The backers include sack master DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer who replaces Greg Ellis and is questionable. ILB Keith Brookings is fine and fellow ILB Bradie James is adequate but a little old. The depth is very suspect.

The only solid player in the secondary is CB Terence Newman. His running mate will be either Mike Jenkins or Orlando Scandrick neither of whom has proven himself. The safeties are Ken Hamlin and Gerald Sensabaugh. Hamlin fell off last year and needs to rebound. Sensabaugh replaces Roy Williams who was a nightmare in coverage. There is little behind the starters but potential.

OVERLL: Teams that put a lot of their salary cap in a few players will always lack quality depth. That has hurt the Cowboys in the past. The biggest reason that they will not make it to the Super Bowl in 09 is lack of both preparation and discipline. The team commits penalties at crunch time then makes key mistakes that keeps them from challenging for a title. Sooner or later even Jerry Jones has to realize that Wade Phillips is not up to the job.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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For the front office and the coaching staff, another 8 win season could well be their last. The pressure is on to get over the average hump and get not only a winning season but a spot in the playoffs. But the team has a lot of questions to answer before that happens.

Offense:

This is the third year of the “Matt Schaub” experiment. So far, Schaub has yet to complete a season. He is one of the talented but fragile QBs in the league. He is going to have to say healthy and improve in 09 to get this team into a playoff position. They are in the AFC South with two of the NFL’s best teams the Colts and the Titans. He must limit the turnovers and increase the TDs for the team to be competitive. His backups are Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky. Neither of those two are going to get the team to 9 or 10 wins.

The running game has had resurgence in 08 with rookie RB Steve Slaton. The team knew that Slaton had speed but were amazed with his ability to run inside through microscopic holes. There is quality and experience behind him in Ryan Moats, Cecil Sapp, and Chris Brown.

The receiver is outstanding—Andre Johnson. AJ has been a one man show making very average receivers Kevin Walter and 3WRs Andre’ Davis and David Anderson look good. AJ always has double or triple coverage. Walter had his best year in 08 and Davis can still go deep. Owen Daniels was drafted as a receiving TE but by hard work has developed into a good run blocker.

The line is coming around but isn’t there yet. All 5 started all 16 games. That is critical because of the zone blocking scheme the team uses. LT Duane Brown was a surprise 1^st round pick in 08 but I featured him in the sleepers column. He has developed into an above average LT with the chance to become outstanding. Gs Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel, C Chris Myers, and RT Eric Winston are all meshing well and should continue to improve as a group.

The only name behind this group is G Kasey Studdard but he may not make the final roster. Antoine Caldwell is pressing for a starting spot and C/G Chris White along with T Rashad Butler provide reserve strength.

The team has spent 3 first round picks on the D line but have not yet seen that level of results. RE Mario Williams was the first overall pick in 06 and DT Amobi Okoye was the 10^th pick in 07. NT Travis Johnson and LE Antonio Smith join the starters and all must generate much more pressure on the QB to produce turnovers. Rookie DE Connor Barwin will become a pass rush specialist to help accomplish that goal.

Injuries reduced the effectiveness of this group in 08. MB DeMeco Ryans was the only one that stayed healthy all year. SLB Zac Diles and WLB Xavier Adibi played well but went down with season ending injuries. Rookie Brian Cushing was handed the SLB before OTAs and Diles will have to fight to get a starting spot back at the weak side again Adibi. Kevin Bentley, Chaun Thompson and Cato June all have experience and improve the bench considerably. They too will challenge for playing time.

The best DB Dunta Robinson threatens a holdout. That is not good news for a group that suffered from injury and lack of pass rush. The other starters are projected to be FS Eugene Wilson, SS Dominique Barber, LCB Jacques Reeves. Look for both Fred Bennett and Antwaun Molden to challenge for CB spots.

OVERALL: Given the two games each against the Colts and the Titans, anything over 8 wins would be a bit of a surprise. The Texans will be third again and fail to make the playoffs again.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Eric Mangini takes over a team that has sniffed a winning record seldom since the team returned in 1999. He has problems all over the field in all three areas of the team. We will discuss the D and ST tomorrow.

Offense:

Line:

The line was a problem last year. LT Joe Thomas had a down year after being a rock in 07. Mangini and whoever plays QB will hold their collective breaths that Thomas says healthy because his backup, Rams et. al. castoff John St. Clair, is a turnstile and practitioner of the “look out” block. After making a look out block, the OL turns around to the QB and yells “look out!” LG Eric Steinbach is solid and RG prospect Floyd Womack has potential. The C position will be contested between last year starter Hank Fraley and new comer Alex Mack. If Mack and Womack can help the rest can protect the passer, the O may move the ball.

Backfield:

The QB position took the punishment for the lack of pass protection last year. The Browns were down to their 3 starter due to injury. This year the hope is that either Derek Anderson comes back to his probowl level of play or Brady Quinn turns potential into production. The second is more likely than the first. Anderson has the stronger arm and the better long ball but Quinn seems to have the inside track on the position.

The team signed Jamal Lewis to carry the ball again this year. The team has no full time starter insurance if he goes down. Fortunately for the fans of the Browns, Lewis seems durable. Backup Jerome Harrison is at best a 3^rd down and change of pace back. Lawrence Vickers is versatile out of the backfield and is a capable lead blocker.

Receivers:

More than any other part of the O, this will determine how many points the O scores. All pro in 07 and top pass dropper in 08 Braylon Edwards is back. The team wanted to trade him but could not get the 1^st and 3^rd they were looking for. That is good because behind him there is not much experience. Rookie Bryan Robiskie and veteran FA Mike Furry will battle for the flanker position to work inside patterns. Unless last year 4^th round pick Martin Rucker develops at TE, don’t expect much yardage from the position. The most likely starter at TE is vet Steve Heiden a fair blocker with good hands but no speed. Rucker or Robert Royal will be the backup.

Coaching:

One key question is will the Browns have an offensive personality. Mangenius said he wants to be “game plan specific” meaning he will run against teams weak in the line and pass on teams weak in the backfield. That is coach-speak for “I’m not sure if we can do either effectively.”

Winning in the AFC North is simple. Run the ball and stop the run. Last year, the Browns struggled at both and had a disastrous season. We will see if things change this year.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Fryingpan Sports By Bill Smith

Best Email this week:

from TheonlyJustice on Mangini seems to be eliminating the leaders on the Browns.

I would feel a little better if Mangini was at least talking to the media a little .I can understand a new coach wanting to keep quiet a little bit about the off season and pre-draft goings-on, but all we have heard here in the Cleveland area is very little and less.

He has already turned off our best defensive player from last year Shaun Rogers. And he isn’t sure if he should use the 3-4 or 4-3 defense , has he looked at the films from last season? We DO NOT have the right linebackers or speed at D-End to keep the same D as Romeo used. And he is saying Derek and Brady will have to compete for the #1 QB, we in C Town are fed up with QB completions after one has had a chance to prove himself and for most of the time didn’t pass the test, Derek fooled the other teams for the first half of the 2007 season, and looked terrible last season. Anderson has a strong arm, but he CAN NOT throw the touch pass, so unless the Browns are trying to trade Derek they are going down the wrong path if they are seriously thinking about keeping Derek over Brady. After all the last regime went through to get Brady it would be terrible to trade Quinn before he gets the real chance to prove himself here.

You are exactly correct about the total lack of touch by Anderson. Given the number of teams that are starting stiffs, the “QB contest” is an attempt to build up the perceived value of Anderson. GM’s may be dumb but they are not stupid. It won’t work and if the Browns find a candidate for a trade, Anderson’s value will be a late 2 or 3 with a 2010 conditional choice based on performance.

Updates on previous columns:

The NFL and NBA should be brought before the Supreme Court.

There have been a couple of comments about the Bill of Rights applying only to government actions. That was true until the 1930’s and that was exactly what the founding fathers had intended. With the progressives taking over the court, the actual text and original intent of the Constitution has not mattered. They consider the Constitution a “living” document that must be expanded and contracted to address the political ends of these judges. Recent court decisions have added rights to the Constitution. For example, the right of privacy is nowhere in the text of the Constitution.

Because the individuals that have been denied entrance to the NFL and NBA are minority, the issue of racial discrimination is one area that should be explored. Frankly the education that public schools give to inner city kids is a violation of their civil rights. No amount of money spent on bad teachers and worse schools will make up for that. Until the inner city parents are given vouchers to allow them to pick a private school for their children, forcing athletes to go to college even for a year is unfair. The educational disadvantage forced on the players by government is a legitimate argument for striking down the rules.

The NFL shot itself in the foot when it allowed 19 year old DT Amobi Okoye into the league a couple of years ago. Okoye has proved that a 19 year old can not only compete but succeed in the NFL. He was a 1^st round draft choice. Based on the Okoye case, age discrimination is another area that could be challenged. While it is normally the older people that use this aspect of civil rights law, this is another possibility.

The market for Owens will tell the Browns a lot about the trade value of Edwards.

It looks like Cleveland will trade WR Braylan Edwards to the Giants. After the Giants cut Plaxico “shoot me now!” Burress, the team really needs at least one and probably 2 WRs. Typically it takes a WR rookie two to three years to become productive. That is why they want Edwards. The Browns are asking for a 1^st (29^th overall) and a 3^rd (91^st overall). The reason that the deal has not been done is that the Giants are trying to get in on the action for Cardinal WR Anquan Boldin. Despite the fact that he has 2 years remaining on his contract, he wants the same 10 mil a year deal that his running mate Larry Fitzgerald who signed a 10 mil a year deal earlier. Both Fitzgerald and QB Kurt Warner have offered to give up 1 mil each to help get Boldin a new deal with Arizona.

My analysis: Boldin would likely cost more draft choices and money than Edwards but is much less of a head case. Chad Johnson (Cincinnati) is also available. One of them will be a Giant before the draft day 1 ends. The Titans and Ravens are also interested in a veteran wr.

The analysis of the Cutler trade.

Several draft prognosticators have Seattle taking QB Marc Sanchez (USC) with the 4^th pick. It is looking more and more like the Seahawks will take Sanchez to replace an aging QB Matt Hasselbeck. There are several reports indicating that including one from respected NFL analyst Todd McShay, of ESPN. Now the Broncos have announced they will bring Sanchez in for a workout. They have 2 1^st round picks 12 (1200 value) and 18 (900 value). They may be interested in trading up to get Sanchez. While many mock drafts show Sanchez falling to the Broncos at 12, that is not likely to happen.

My analysis: It would have been impossible for the Bears to trade up to get to #3 to get him. As I said in my column, the price for Cutler was not at all excessive. If you are going to be sure to get Sanchez, you have to trade into the 3^rd pick worth 2200 points. Denver can do that with both 1s and a 3^rd because they have an extra 3. No other team is in a position to trade up that high. I predict that no trade will happen and Sanchez will be taken in the 4^th spot by Seattle or 8^th by Jacksonville.

You draft out of fear of failure and you will fail.

You never have enough good big men.

It happens ever year around this time. The big guys are moving up the draft board. The reason this happens so frequently is fear. O line are the “safest” picks in the draft normally. If you draft a guy as a LT and he doesn’t have the feet to play there, try RT or G. That can protect a 20-30 million dollar guarantee. D line is somewhat more risky but both groups are far safer than QB or WR.

Fresh niblets:

The Bills trade LT Jason Peters to the Eagles.

The deal will send Peters, a multiple year pro bowl player, to the Eagles for their 2^nd 1^st round pick (28^th), a 4^th this year and a 4^th to a 6^th next year according to John Clayton. ESPN.com reported that the 2010 choice is a 6^th. Peters will get a new extension of 4 years for 60 million added to his current 2 year deal. That deal includes 53 mil in new money.

My analysis: Peters played much better in 07 than he did in 08. Like several O linemen, he earned his pro bowl in 08 on rep. When he is interested, he is an outstanding tackle. A former TE, he has very good feet but went undrafted. He was signed by the Bills and converted to LT.

Derek Anderson (QB Cleveland) refused to have surgery on his injured knee.

Last year Anderson hurt his left MCL after the being hit more than a baseball in an Indians game. Eric “the silent” Mangini has refused to answer questions about Anderson’s condition (or anything else for that matter). EM has said that Anderson and Quinn will battle for the starting spot. GM George Kokinis said “Derek’s 100 percent.”

My analysis: The Browns will need both of them and 3 or 4 more unless the O line plays better in 09.

The Bills sign RB Rhodes.

The Bills signed former RB of the Colts Dominic Rhodes to a contract. He will have to fill in for suspended RB Marshawn Lynch who may be out 3 games due to a plea bargain on a gun charge.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

My email is wesmith2001@hotmail.com.

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