One theory of management is “the level of competence.” That theory says that an organization will promote people based on their ability to do their current job. But at some point they become no longer “promotable” because they are no longer doing an outstanding job. They are in a job one level above their level of competence. Those people should be demoted back to a job that they do well but they almost never are.

I see the Cav’s coach Brown as just such a case. From all reports Brown was a more than competent as associate head coach of the Indiana Pacers and as an assistant coach for the San Antonio Spurs. But he is in my opinion not even close to being competent as head coach.

Science tells us that nature abhors a vacuum. Because Brown is incompetent as head coach there is a power vacuum that out of necessity LeBron James has been forced to fill. As good as James is, it is very difficult to get an overview of the game from the court. He is so focused on doing his job that he is not able to see that the offensive flow of the team is sporadic at best and nonexistent at times.

The lack of competence of Brown has been highlighted by his inability to deal with the changes in the roster from the trades and returning players from injury. In a recent interview he admitted he was struggling to re-integrate Williams into the offense. He seems to have no clue how to integrate Jamison into the offense and what is worse, has not even tried to do it. Brown puts guys on the floor and lets James figure out how to use them.

Mike, here are a few things you might try to see in the tapes of recent games.

1. The offense runs very smoothly when it goes through LeBron and a big man. It doesn’t seem to matter if that is Shaq or Jamison because both are more than capable of scoring or dishing the ball to an open player. That will also save James’ energy and make him more effective later in the game.

2. The Brown O seems to be 4 guys watching LeBron take on the 5 opponents. Both he and Brown need to trust the other guys on the team. This is not the 04-05 team with guys like Drew Gooden, Jeff McInnis, Ira Newble and Robert Traylor around James. We have a team that has veteran starting quality scorers. Both James and Brown need to trust them particularly in the last few minutes of a game. In the 3 game losing streak the Cavs O in the last few minutes was 1 on 5 LeBron against the world.

3. It was nice to see Jamison starting. He has to start with Varejao being the 1st off the bench at PF. Hickson is a great kid but he has to be the 3rd option at that position. It will reduce his minutes but that is the way it needs to be to have this team be competitive against the top teams in the league.

There should be no doubt that this team is the most prepared to compete for a championship that the Cavs have ever had. Mike, get your head out of your hind quarters and start coaching. If you can’t figure out how to get all these stars into the O, find someone that can and let them do it. LeBron has enough on his plate.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Your fantasy football doesn’t have to be over. Run a pro football franchise all year long for free at http://sportsims.net/. Tell them Coach Smith sent you.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He is a regular contributor on Cleveland Sports Radio http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ Monday morningS at 11 EST. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Analysis: NBA Draft Value Score

One thing that I have learned studying the NFL and NBA drafts for the last 50 years is that you can not ever evaluate how a team has done until at least 3 years after the fact. But in 2009 we are in an atmosphere of immediate reporting on the 24 hour sports news outlets. We don’t have 3 years to wait to see how our favorite team did.

There is a guide that I use after a draft to evaluate how much value each team got with each pick. By value I mean did they draft a player way too high or did they get a player that was projected much higher with a later pick. The former is a waste of draft choice value. The later is a high value pick.

This analysis is much more accurate in the NFL draft with 7 rounds plus compensation choices. Each team has more choices and thus a better chance of putting a deal together to get what they want. In the case of the NBA, we evaluate only really great values or really wasted picks (yes Cavs, we are talking about you).

To determine the ranking of the players I used 3 sites with their lists of the top 100 players. I did not use my own 150 ranking because I just have not watched enough BB to be competitive with the most respected sites. The the +/- is determined by subtracting the average of these 3 rankings from the actual draft position. I separate the first and second round because of the disparity of value and importance between the rounds.

So here goes:

First round best value picks

First round worst value picks

Because Eyenga was not on any of the three lists, the Cavs get the dunce cap for the worst reach in the first round.

Second round best values

The worst reaches in the second round.

Using this same system, here are the top 30 undrafted players coming to a team near you.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The Cavs took 2 steps up with the trade for C Shaquille O’Neal. Most of the experts are saying that Shaq won’t impact the Cavs that much. That is both true and false. But then they threw away their 1^st round pick by drafting Christian Eyenga of the Congo via Spain. One step WAY back.

False: The thing that Shaq gives the Cavs is an inside scorer. Shaq is also a better passer than almost any other C in the league. When the Cavs get the ball inside and the D begins to collapse on him, he can pass to the perimeter for a 3 point shot. That will work if anyone other than LeBron James is capable of hitting a 3 in the playoffs. Mo Williams was brought in to be the other outside scorer and take some pressure off LeBron. That worked well in the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs. However, in the series against Orlando, Mo became one of the statues standing watching LeBron take on the entire Magic team. Add to that the fact that Mo couldn’t have hit the Mississippi River from the middle of a bridge and the Cavs get blown out of the playoffs.

The older C Zydrunas Ilgauskas gets the farther away from the basket he seems to play. Over the last couple of years, no one doubled Z. And most of his points have come from 10 feet and out. He has not been an inside scoring force that LeBron needs. He has never been physical. Given the ability of Shaq to catch the ball and score inside, he is a major improvement in the middle over Z.

True: The addition of Shaq does nothing to help pick and roll D which was half the reason that the Cavs lost to the Magic. The Cavs needed the addition of one more outside shooting threat that can also play D against the opponent PF or SF with some quickness. Don’t even think that Cleveland can play Z at the PF against teams like the Magic. Forward Richard Jefferson that was traded to San Antonio from Milwaukee is EXACTLY the kind of player that could have made the Cavs much more effective against the Magic. He also would have helped against the Celtics. By getting Jefferson, the Spurs can challenge the Lakers in the west.

That brings us to the draft. ESPN NFL draft guru Mel Kiper said of a team during one draft “They clearly don’t understand what the draft is all about.” He was right then and it applies to the Cavs’ 2009 NBA draft as well. Eyenga is supposed to be very athletic. Ok, that’s nice. But any prospect that has a highlight tape that looks like it was taken by a $9 cell phone is not worth a 1^st round pick—even the 30^th pick. I admit I had never heard of Eyenga. I have a list of 150 players that I have seen and Eyenga is not on that list. He was also not on the lists of any website I have been able to find.

The point that Kiper was making is that having a good draft is a product of getting value with each pick. Do the Cavs really think that Eyenga wasn’t going to be there at 47, their other pick in the draft? He would have been there in September of 09 as an undrafted and unknown FA. With that 30^th pick, the Cavs could have gotten DeJuan Blair (PF Pittsburgh 16^th on my ranking) who is a good defender and rebounder and can score a little. The Spurs will work Blair into the rotation immediately and he will develop into a starter down the line. They could have gotten Sam Young (SF Pittsburgh) or Dante Cunningham (F Villanova). Even Richie Cunningham would have been a better pick. He played for his high school team on Happy Days didn’t he?

I did like the pick of Danny Green (SF North Carolina). He is as ready to contribute as anyone picked around him (47 overall).

So what do the Cavs do now? Get into the Hedo Turkoglu (F FA from Orlando) sweepstakes. Turk could be the guy they need to fill that other F position opposite LeBron. Turk as I predicted has opted out of his Magic contract. The Cavs need to spend the money now to get Turk and pay the luxury tax. If they fail to win it all in 09-10, they will lose LeBron and 90% of the value of the franchise.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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There are 2 drafts happening this week. The NBA draft will be held on Thursday. Both rounds will be shown on ESPN which is available in almost every home that has cable, or satellite TV. The NHL draft will be seen Friday by all 47 lucky viewers that have access to the Vs. Network.

The first choice in the NBA draft will be Oklahoma All American PF Blake Griffin. NBA fans have seen him many times on television including the Sooners run in the NCAA Tournament on CBS. Other top choices include Jordan Hill (PF, Arizona), James Harden (SG Arizona St.) DeMar DeRozan (SG USC) and Hasheem Thabeet (C UConn). There are a couple of foreign players the most significant of which is Ricky Rubio (PG DKV Joventut) the 18 years old star of the Spanish Olympic Silver medal team seen all over the world including in the US.

The first pick in the NHL Draft will be Victor Hedman (defenseman Sweden), or centers John Tavares or Matt Duchene of the OHL. No one is sure which one will be picked first by the New York Islanders. The problem that the NHL has is that very few fans have seen them play on television and even fewer will see which one is picked on the Vs. Network.

The NHL starts off light years behind the NBA and NFL in coverage of the draft which is a critical path to developing the stars that fans follow throughout their careers. Being that far behind, they need to do a better job of marketing their stars and their sport. But they don’t.

As a marketing consultant for more than 40 years, I have contacted some of the NHL teams with ideas that would have built attendance and increased the chances of getting more coverage in the papers and on TV and the radio. In all cases I was told that the teams were fine. They didn’t need marketing help.

Despite all the confident talk, the finances of NHL teams have been teetering on the edge of bankruptcy for years. The Phoenix franchise is up for sale right now and may well move back to Canada unless a local buyer steps up soon. This is particularly worrisome because the area is a retirement center where former northern state residents nearly outnumber locals. The area is very wealthy and has a hunger for sports. Even so, the team is nearly bankrupt.

Hockey is a religion for its dedicated fans. It is a great game best seen in person. The playoffs this year were outstanding. But the closed attitude of the NHL leadership is obvious. They need to wake up to the new media and ways to market their sport.

The labor problem that wiped out the 2004-2005 season was the end of the major coverage in the US. The lockout failed to accomplish anything except setting the league back 40 years. It cost the league any chance at a major TV contract. No major network trusted the league.

Most of all, the NHL needs to get a national contract on a major network. Less money now from an ESPN, TBS, Fox or other major network will generate great interest and much greater incomes in future years even if that means bringing the flaming puck back.

The league is struggling as all businesses in the US and around the world are from the economic downturn. If they don’t find a way to get a deal with a real network, we will be back to 8 or 10 teams very soon. That would be a crime.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The Bucks traded their best player, Richard Jefferson, for a trio of decent but not winning players. The Milwaukee Bucks have sent a message to their fans—“We lost with Richard Jefferson. We lost paying the NBA Luxury tax for being over 71.5 million. So this year don’t bother watching us. We are going to save money and dump the 2009-10 season.”

Like all the NBA teams that are dumping payroll this year and next, the excuse is that “we are preparing to make a big splash in the free agent market in 2010.” Don’t believe that for a second. No major free agent is going to go to Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland (if LeBron leaves), Washington, Oklahoma City, or any other of the cold weather and traditionally mediocre teams in the league.

The reason that teams get away with these half-truths is that all sports fans are gullible. As a Cavs and Cubs fan, I include myself in that group. We all believe that all we need is one more really good player to bring a title to our long suffering team.

There are several BIG names in the 2010 free agent pool. But the pool is not nearly as deep as it looks.

CLE – LeBron James

The future of the Cavs begins and ends with James. If he leaves, it ends for sure. No free agent would ever come to Cleveland except to play with LeBron. There is a 33% chance that LeBron will stay in Cleveland. I believe it will depend on what the Cavs do this off season. If not, he is bound for Orlando, LA, NY, or maybe even San Antonio.

Miami – Dwayne Wade (Player option)

Wade is the most valuable PG available in the next 2 years. He will likely move to a contender. The Bucks fans don’t have to worry. No way will Wade or any other big time FA go there.

Bos – Paul Pierce (Early Termination Option ETO)

The BIG 2.5 (Ray Allen is only half) is getting older. We saw this year how important the loss of Kevin Garnett was. If Pierce leaves, the Celts are the 4^th or 5^th best team in the East. The team will do whatever it takes to keep him. Allen will also be unrestricted in 2010 and will likely be allowed to leave.

Hou – Yao Ming (ETO)

Since a group of Chinese businessmen bought into the Cavs, there have been rumors of Yao going to Cleveland to join LeBron. Don’t bet on it. Yao may well take a hike if the team loses more of his support. Ron Artest is a free agent this year, and Tracy McGrady is a free agent in 2010. If they both stay and the Rockets bring in someone else, he will likely stay. The problem that the team faces is that Yao is the only young C in the pool. He will receive a lot of offers.

ATL – Joe Johnson

There is no way that a team that is young and building is going to let a scorer go. Johnson will be super-glued to the Hawks roster. With the Hawks coming along nicely, he won’t leave.

Milw – Michael Redd

Redd will likely put his house up for sale this year because the housing market is down. That should give him plenty of time to sell the house prior to him leaving the Bucks. He is the one player that might go home to Cleveland but only if LeBron is there. Since Redd is a SG, he is not exactly what the Cavs need the most.

There are a lot of other players including Amare Stoudemire (ETO Suns) who is an oldie but goodie.

Most teams are using the 2010 season of LeBron as an excuse to lose now and save money. But we all get lied to a lot, so why the NBA team owners be any different.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Rumors and Dis-information rule the NBA Draft talk.

NOTE: Niblets will become a once a month feature starting on the first Saturday in July.

How do you know if a politician is lying to you? Are his lips moving? The same thing can be said for NBA general managers and coaches leading up to draft time.

Even so, the rumors are flying and some of them are interesting. As I reported earlier this week, one has the Suns trading PF Amar’e Stoudemire to Minnesota for C/PF Al Jefferson and the 6^th pick in this year’s draft. Humm! Stoudemire is coming off eye surgery and will be a free agent next season. The Suns have been trying to cut payroll for years. They have traded away their first round picks in most of the recent drafts. However, the Timberwolves have denied this rumor. The Suns might be thinking about keeping Shaq at C and making Jefferson the PF. Jefferson is not physical and could be more effective against 4s than 5s.

I wonder if that indicates that C Shaquille O’Neal may be on his way out of Phoenix? On that subject, Suns GM Steve Kerr admitted he has talked to half the teams in the league about Shaq. Cleveland seems to be the favorite so far. Anyone that will take Shaq and can give back anything the Suns can use including players that wish to retire (Ben Wallace).

Memphis is desperate to move the #2 pick. They would love to move down about 5 spots to get a big man.

“Take my shooting guard—please!” Houston is looking to dump SG Tracy McGrady and his one year 23 million dollar contract. McGrady, 29, has a lot left but has lost the confidence of the Rockets coaching staff. The team would take a bag of balls for him but NBA rules require that salaries offset. That makes McGrady hard to move.

“Player X is falling faster than the Dow Jones” Don’t buy anything you hear and only about half of what you see this time of year. Interestingly enough, the reports of players falling are from teams on which the players mentioned would fit the best.

One guy in particular, PG Ricky Rubio, has been mentioned as falling the most. What did he do wrong? Nothing. No one doubts his ability on the court. The only question is the cost of the buyout of his contract in Spain. Given the economy of the US, some teams may shy away from drafting him because of the cash cost of that buyout.

The bottom line: This draft is weak overall in both blue chip can’t miss guys and in depth of quality players. There will be little real quality after pick 16.

As always, someone will hit the jackpot with a second rounder that becomes special. Another team will pick a late first rounder that will be OK or a little better than that.

A couple of the teams at the bottom of the draft will pick a foreign player that can stay in their current league for a year or two to save money.

Little guys at PG or SG will out perform big guys drafted much higher.

Other than that, nothing much is going to be special about the 2009 draft. The draft will be held on June 25.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The latest victim of the NBA one and done policy for NBA rookies is Tim Floyd, the former coach of the USC basketball team. The NCAA is more than a little miffed that former one year wonder O.J. Mayo might have gotten free NBA tickets. They were even more upset about rumors that Mayo may have gotten both cash and cloths that may have amounted to thousands of dollars.

But what forced Floyd out of town was a rumor that Mayo had someone else take his SAT exam. Frankly, USC threw Floyd under the team bus even though the coach led the team to 3 straight NCAA tournaments.

The reason that Floyd ended up with political tire tracks across his chest is that the school’s beloved and very profitable football program is currently being scrutinized for previous allegations involving Reggie Bush. USC loves its basketball but not nearly as much as its football.

USC has some major issues. It reminds me of an interview with former Oklahoma LB Brian Bosworth. When asked how he liked pro ball he responded it was OK but the cut in pay was hard to take. The comment was a joke but there are major problems with college athletics.

The biggest problem is money—there is WAY too much of it floating around. The money has led to an NCAA rule book that makes the IRS rule book look like a pamphlet. But the NFL and NBA are not part of the solution, they are part of the problem.

That brings us to the NBA rule that a player must be one year out of high school before they can be drafted. It causes players that have 0 interest in college to fake it for one quarter. They don’t have to attend class in the second quarter because they will be out of school before the grades come back.

The alternative to a single year at college is a trip to Europe to play. It is both difficult and dangerous. The league has to eliminate the policy. It has the developmental league for players that are not good enough to be drafted. It needs to expand that program to include these players. Right now, there are not enough teams to allow each franchise to have their own. The league has decided that it will no longer allow teams to share developmental rosters.

It is past time for both the NCAA and the NBA to fix what they have broken. Until they do, other coaches will have political tire tracks across their chests just like Floyd.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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The facts:

Fact 1: Given the debacle of 08-09, unless the Cavs do something spectacular, LeBron is LeGone. The Magic were better than the Cavs this year and the Magic will be significantly improved with the return of PG Jameer Nelson next season. The Magic’s key players are getting better.

Fact 2: The Cavs are likely to be worse next season unless they make some spectacular and admittedly desperate moves. Ben Wallace has already mentioned retirement. Despite his efforts, he is no where near the player he used to be. If some team offers Anderson Varejao a deal, he is likely to go. While he is not the answer for the Cavs, his departure will hurt the Cavs more than his arrival will help another team.

Fact 3: Mike Brown is not the kind of coach that is likely to be able to convince LeBron than the Cavs have a future. The Cavs should look for a high energy high profile offensive minded coach immediately.

Fact 4: Cleveland without LeBron could not attract a free agent offering a magic carpet ride through Shangra La. The ONLY hope the Cavs have for any kind of future is to do whatever the team can to try to keep LeBron.

Fact 5: The salary cap for 2008-09 was $58.680 million. The Cavs had one of the highest salary totals in the league last year. It was around 94 million.

Fact 6: Any team that goes above the salary tax level of 71.15 million pays a dollar for every dollar above that level. That meant that the Cavs had to give the league around 23 million in tax penalty payments.

Fact 7: There were only 2 teams, Miami and Portland, under the salary cap. And they were only popcorn money below the cap.

Plan 1 Amar’e Stoudemire (Pheonix 2008-09 Statistics PPG 21.4 RPG 8.10 APG 2.0)

Stoudemire is coming off an injury and there is reason to believe that the Suns are thinking about reworking their team. There are also rumors about the Suns needing to drop payroll to get under the tax level. Stoudemire is only 27 and is a consistent 20+ point 8+ rebound guy. Having another shooter to draw attention is critical. He would make Zydrunas Ilgauskas better by giving the team a 3^rd rebounder. Stoudemire would create a very tough front line match up for opponents and someone that could slow down Dwight Howard.

Plan 2 Hedo Turkoglu (ETO) (Orlando 2008-09 Statistics PPG 16.8 RPG 5.30 APG 4.9)

The Turk has already announced he plans to opt out of the contract with the Magic. If the Cavs could land him, he would not only help Cleveland but hurt their prime opponent. A great thought if they could pull it off. Don’t hold your breath. Turk is looking for BIG money. He may not find it but other teams have a better chance of giving it to him than the Cavs.

Plan 3 Shaquille O’Neal (trade only) (Pheonix 2008-09 Statistics PPG 17.8 RPG 8.4 APG 1.7)

There has been a lot of talk about the Suns trading Shaq to the Cavs for Aleksandar Pavlovic and Ben Wallace. Shaq MIGHT be willing to take that trade for one reason—to beat Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in a final. Shaq has only 1 or 2 seasons left at best. He would be a short term fix that would not entice LeBron to stay. But it might get LeBron a title as a thank you for what he has done for the Cavs.

The bottom line: No team can afford to lose a key player and stay competitive. Because they are all over the salary cap, they have only a mid level exception to bring in a free agent. That is expected to be around 6 million next season. The teams will do whatever it takes including overpaying marginal stars because they can’t afford to take any big money free agents.

The only chance the Cavs have is to make a trade but they just don’t have much to trade with. The Cavs have to do something but there are very few options. Look for them to try but I can’t see them being able to do much.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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We have a home version of our game for each of the departing Magic players.

The Lakers have the NBA championship in their hip pocket. The Magic was a victim of poor shooting and the lack of home court advantage. It is almost impossible for any team to win 3 straight games at home against a championship quality opponent. The Magic proved that they could not stand the heat.

More important, Dwight Howard proved that he could not stand the heat. This is not the same team that played Cleveland so well. The Magic looked very tight. When Howard missed the free throws at the end of regulation, it was also the end of the Magic’s dream of a title.

The Lakers were in foul trouble, on the road, and tired. Even so, they found a way to steal game 4 from the Magic. Even if the Magic manage to win game 5, they are done. They will not be able to win one game against the Lakers in LA let alone 2. The Magic only won game 3 by shooting a record percentage.

The Lakers have a history of taking a game off. They may well lose game 5. They will not lose 3 in a row. If the Magic couldn’t win 3 in a row in Orlando, how can they expect to win 3 with 2 of those games in LA?

Games 5 and 6 will tell us a lot about how finals ready the Magic are. If they win game 5 and give the Lakers a real tough game 6, they may have the grit to win a title in the future. If not, they could well be remembered along with the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings as teams that could get to multiple championship series but not ever win a championship.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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Again the so called experts have been proven wrong. After the 100-75 win by the Lakers in game 1 of the NBA finals, the majority opinion was that the Lakers would win the series in 4 or 5 games. Then came game 2.

The Magic pushed the Lakers the entire game forcing it to overtime only after just missing a shot with less than a second left that would have tied the series at 1 all. The experts are still confident in the Lakers chances. The Lakers are 38-1 when leading a series 2-0. That statistic is pretty convincing.

What makes me think that the series will go longer than 5 games is how badly the Magic played in game 1. It was unlikely that they would continue to play that poorly throughout the series. The Magic is better than they looked in game 1. But there are some signs that bode well for the Lakers in the long run.

The Magic will not win the series unless they get C Dwight Howard more involved late in the game. He did not have a shot in the OT session. He hardly touched the ball in overtime. The Magic MUST get him involved more at crunch time. He is the secret to getting open 3 point shots late. If the ball comes into him and the D collapses, he can pass it out to an open 3 point shooter.

Another issue for the Magic is the struggles of PG Rafer Alston. The decision to bring Jameer Nelson back for the finals. Alston has struggled to find his shooting touch in the first two game and it may be because he is sharing time with Nelson. Nelson is trying to shake off the rust of missing more than half a season due to injury. He too is struggling.

The new roles for the guards has disrupted what was an extremely productive bench. The rotation that worked so well against the Cavs has been disrupted by the Nelson addition and the bench has become an albatross around the necks of the Magic.

The Magic can win. They proved that by forcing overtime in LA even though they played less than their best game. They MUST win all three games in Orlando. I don’t believe they can do that. I think that LA wins one in Orlando and the series is over in 6.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

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