NOTE:  We will finish our question mark review for the NFC South and West Thursday.

Best comment of the month:

teeth whitening gets the comment of the month again. Comment on LeBron is LeGone to Miami I wonder if the incentives in the contracts for the beach boys are going to impose problems during their season? What if one of the players decides to pad their stats instead of playing team ball and set off the egos.

TW, I think we have a new name for the guys in South Beach–the Beach Boys. Well done and thanks for reading our site.

Updates on previous columns:

LeBron, Gilbert, Miami and Cleveland The Heat added F Juwan Howard, Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jamaal Magloire and rookies Dexter Pittman and Patrick Beverley. Z is nearly useless and was at the end of the bench during the Cavs run in the playoffs last season. Howard is not what he used to be but will help. Magloire gives the heat some physical play inside at C.

The Cavs have done very little to add talent despite owner Gilbert’s statement. The fact is that if the team could not attract a top UFA with LeBron on the roster, they will have no luck getting one now.

Baseball Heads Down the Back Stretch The rich (Yankees) get richer and traded for Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns, along with reliever Kerry Wood. The Cubs and the Indians continue to be some of the best minor league teams in baseball by giving up talented players for nothing. Even so, the Rays took sole posession of 1st place by beating the Yankees 2 out of 3 last weekend.

The Rangers got the best pitcher on the trading block by getting ex-Indian and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee from Seattle and catcher Bengie Molina from the Giants.

Questions in the NFC East and North training camps The injury to Cowboy 1st round pick WR Dez Bryant is the feared “high ankle sprain.” He may be ready for the opening game but that will give WR Roy Williams a chance to earn his money and establish himself as the starter. He won’t but will start for the first 6 weeks.

Niblets fresh from the cob:

The Raven’s D backfield took another major hit when Domonique Foxworth’s season ended with an injury. They traded QB John Beck to the Redskins for unproven CB Doug Dutch. Beck was at one time the QB of the future for the Dolphins.

The latest rumor is that Bret Favre is not coming back. We have heard that before and we will see. If he is not coming back, the Vikes will struggle to win their division let alone get deep in the playoffs.

The Pats have taken WR Wes Welker off the PUP and he is expected to be close to 100% by the start of the season. That is great news for Tom Brady.

There are only a couple of rookies unsigned as of today. That includes 2nd over all DT Ndamukong Suh. He was reportedly asking 50M guaranteed. But according to his agent, that is not the case.

Raven 2nd round pick LB Sergio Kindle fell and will be out for several weeks with a cracked skull. He has been diagnosed with Narcolepsy.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

LeBron is gone. Gilbert is 100K poorer after being fined by the NBA for his open letter to fans. The Cavs have nothing to show for LeBron leaving except a couple of late 1st and late 2nd round picks. But as always, there is more to the story than has been reported elsewhere.

First we will look at LeBron.

LeBron said that his top priority was winning. The fact is that he realized that he could not do that alone. But he wasn’t alone in the 2009-10 season. He had the best cast he ever enjoyed since turning pro. In addition to the 08-09 team, owner Dan Gilbert brought Shaq and Jamison into town to not only help LeBron but to show him the team would do whatever it could to keep him happy. That was not enough to get past the Celtics in the playoffs.

However, many including owner Gilbert believed that the failure to win against the Celtics was not so much the fault of the supporting cast as it was a failure of LeBron himself. In the three consecutive losses to the Celts, LeBron went 7-22 for 22 points, 3-14 for 15, and 8-21 for 28. That puts his shooting percentage at 34% well below his 09-10 season average of 50.3%. Jamison hit 38% which is a little more than 10% below his season average of 46.5%. Shaq sank 59% of his shots which is well above his average of 49.6 for the 09-10 season.

One of the best indications of the offensive efficiency and effectiveness of a player is points per shot. LeBron got 1.21 points per shot. During the season he averaged 1.41 pps. Jamison got .88 pps vs his season average of 1.19. Shaq came through strong in the playoff against Boston with 1.81 pps vs. his season average of 1.37.

LeBron said the city of Cleveland should forgive him for just 5 bad games in his years on the team. He knew he was not playing up to normal. The fault may have been on his injured elbow or that may have been a good excuse to tank the series.

Why would he do that? Let’s go back to the Olympics. Not the last one but the one in 2004. Wade and James talked then about playing together. They signed short contracts to allow them to become UFAs in 2010. In the 2008 games, Bosh joined in the collusion. If the Cavs had won the title in 2009-10, how could he move to Miami saying that he wanted to win? He couldn’t.

Another possibility was that after the game 2 loss to the Celts in Cleveland, LeBron realized what some have been saying for awhile. He is not a Jordan but is rather a Pippen. He is not capable of carrying a team on his back but has to be the “other” guy that helps a real star win. He will never admit that publicly but by going to Miami he has told the world he felt like he needed a star or two to win.

Dan Gilbert:

Gilbert may have really hacked off the NBA and Commish Stern but he said what he had to in order to keep the Cavs’ fan base together. We can not forget that the people of Cleveland have been disappointed so often by their sports teams. As I said in the first article on this blog years ago, it seems like God hates the Browns. That applies to the Indians and the Cavs as well. The Browns were stolen by Art Muddle. The Indians are run by an owner with all the spirit and charisma of a pet rock. Gilbert may be a little poorer but the people of Cleveland love him for his desire to win and finally standing up to James.

Leaving was bad enough but the 1 hour “LeGone” TV special was overkill. It seems to every Cavs fan that LeBron just wanted to twist the knife after inserting it into the heart of the team. “Et tu LeBron?”

Miami:

One thing that can not be overlooked is the advantage that any team in Florida has over most states and particularly Ohio. Florida has no individual income tax. Ohio is one of the highest tax states in the country. Given the amount that the “Big 3″ will earn, that fact has not been lost on them.

Finally Cleveland:

All the top drawer free agents are gone because LeBron waited so long to let the team know he was leaving. Even with LeBron, there was little chance that any one of them would come to the Cavs. Reportedly LeBron did try to convince Bosh to come but I doubt that given the background quoted above. Shaq is a UFA as well and may go elsewhere. That will leave the team with little hope for the immediate future. The only thing about which a Cavs fan can be positive is that Gilbert will do absolutely everything in his power to make the team competitive in the long and short run.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003

and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

LeBron announced tonight that he is going to play for the Heat next season. It was a good decision for him but could be fatal to the Cavilers.

In Miami he will play with both Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh and a cast of rejects and no names.

In Cleveland, there is a hole the size of the Pacific Ocean right in the middle of the starting lineup.

Miami now has a total of 6 guys on the roster. PG Mario Chalmers and C Joel Anthony will join the Second 3 (the first big 3 was the Celtics) as starters with utility man Michael Beasley most likely to be traded for multiple vets. James is used to playing 35+ minutes a night and unless the team can find a few cheap vets, he will have to. The starters should be among the best in the league. But very often, championships require a decent if not strong bench. This team will be DEEP into luxury tax land and will have to find a bench willing to play at league minimum. They do have a couple of rookies they can sign.

The Cavs now have enough cap room to sign a top free agent. But they won’t be able to do that. According to multiple reports, LeBron tried to recruit FAs to come to the Cavs including Bosh and G Ray Allen. According to one source he even tried to get the often injured Amar’e Stoudemire to come. He had no success. The result was the same for the Cavs new regime. The question is now that they have a championship quality coach, what will they do to rebuild the team?

The Cavs are rumored to be trying to sign Ryan Gomes, Jonny Flynn and Acie Law. F Gomes was a recent cut of Portland who started 64 of 76 games for the Timberwolves in 09-10. He averaged 10.9 points and 4.6 rebounds last year.

G Flynn also played for the Wolves and started all 81 games he played. He scored 13.5 points and had 4.4 assists per game.

G Law got a lot of airline miles changing teams in 2009-10. He played for Chicago, Charlotte and Golden State but only played in 26 games.

In addition, they have a couple of former draft choices in Europe including Christian Eyenga (1st round 09) and Sasha Kaun (2nd round 08).

The Cavs need some top draft choices. Based on their roster as of now, they will in the lottery for several years to come. New HC Scott should be able to get the most out of whatever talent he is given but I’m not sure that will be enough to make the playoffs next year.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

Trying to grade the NFL draft right after it is an effort in futility. The NBA draft is even worse because we have so much less information about the players. I won’t try to do that. Instead let’s look at 2010 free agency because that is where the rubber of the NBA ball meets the court.

There are 3 premiere UFAs in the 2010 free agent class. Those are 1. LeBron James SF (26 years old), 2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28) and 3. 3. Chris Bosh, FC (26). That is it.

There are 3 blue chip UFAs including 4. Joe Johnson, SG (29 a late bloomer that has really come on in Atlanta) 5. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28 but injury prone and not much of a defender) 6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (a very old 32).

Then there is the rest who are at best a “Pippen” that requires a Jordan to get you a championship.

There is no question that the first 3 deserve the max contract of about 16.6 mil over what ever length of time you can sign the guy for. In the second group Johnson deserves the max but I would not give the other 2 max deals for more than 3 years. There is a really good chance they won’t be productive after that.

Here is the problem: There are 9 teams that have been working feverishly to create cap room to sign UFAs this year. They have traded away good players and virtually decimated their rosters to take their shot at a FA home run. Here is the list as of draft night:

Miami 43M

New York 35

New Jersey 27

Chicago 21

Washington 20

LA Clippers 18

Sacramento 15

Minnesota 15

Oklahoma City 12

Miami is trying to get into position to sign 2 max plus keep Wade. Who says you can’t buy an NBA title? The list above does not include Cleveland that is trying their best to keep LeBron.

That adds up to a total of 206M. But at best there are only 99.6M worth of max contract UFAs and that includes a couple of marginal max guys. The teams listed have all had trouble filling their arena with their 09-10 rosters. Those teams that don’t get one or more of the top 3 are going to struggle even more in 2010-11 because they will be left with guys that no one else wanted.

Suppose LeBron and Bosh go to one team and the others sign elsewhere. That leaves 4 teams and 105.4 M without a dance partner. What will happen is that some of the “Pippen” guys will get max 7 year contracts that will allow their new team to save a little face. But those guaranteed contracts will hang around the necks of the GMs like a C4 explosive collar. It is just a matter of time before those teams will have to blow the team and the organization up and start over.

The job security of an NBA GM makes Greece Bonds look solid. The Trail Blazers fired GM Kevin Pritchard effective at the end of Thursday’s NBA Draft because he took Ohio State C Greg Oden with the first pick in the 2007 draft. Oden who had injury problems at OSU in his 1 season there has played only 81 games since he was drafted. But there were at least 20 other GMs that would have taken Oden if they won the lottery.

Just to add one more uncertainty to the mix, the current NBA CBA expires after the 2010-2011 season unless the league exercises its option to extend it through the 2011-12 year.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

This preview will deal with the top 20 picks. Anyone that has watched the NBA draft over the last few years realizes that the last 10 picks in the first round are a crap shoot at best. The analysis here is a combination of what I think the teams will do and what they should do based on their needs.

This year’s draft is deeper than any in the last few years but there is a significant drop off after the 20th player. Look for the bottom 10 to take a lot of foreign players. The top teams in the league are often looking to draft a future player that can develop overseas for a couple of years without costing the team a roster spot or big money. That is particularly true this season because of the potential labor issue coming up in the near future.

1. Washington

Without doubt, John Wall PG Kentucky will be the choice. Some are saying he is the best player to come out since Kevin Durant. I don’t think so. Durant is a well rounded player that gets rebounds, assists and points. Wall will help a weak O develop some consistency.

2. Philadelphia

The 76ers will have D on the floor next season with Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young and Jrue Holiday. None of them are NBA scorers. Some think the team will go with Cousins but my pick here is the most refined O player in the draft–Evan Turner SG Ohio State. He can create his own shot and draw doubles to dish off to an open player.

3. New Jersey

Derrick Favors PF Georgia Tech should be the pick here unless the team trades out of the spot. NJ was the worst team in the league last year with a ton of cap space. If they can get 2 or 3 vets in a deal for this spot they will take the trade in a New Jersey second. Favors has the physical style that the team needs on D and will be a consistent scorer.

4. Minnesota

The Timberwolves are trying to move up to get Turner. They won’t be able to. So they will go for another more mature wing scorer–Wesley Johnson SF Syracuse. Johnson is 22 and will be reunited with Jonny Flynn.

5. Sacramento

DeMarcus Cousins PF/C Kentucky is the picture of inconsistent play. He disappears for stretches of a game. But the team needs an athletic big man and he is the best of that category. He is a 1 and done guy that they will have to find a way to light a fire under to get the production that they expect from the 5th pick.

6. Golden State

Greg Monroe PF Georgetown is a perimeter PF that is more finesse than physical. He can’t help the team with rebounding on the wing. But he has great “upside” and that is what will get him picked here.

7. Detroit

Al-Farouq Aminu SF Wake Forest will probably be the pick here but I am wondering why. He can’t shoot beyond 6 ft. He is raw as steak tartar but he is athletic and has potential. That is what gets coaches fired faster than anything else.

8. L.A. Clippers

Ekpe Udoh PF Baylor has shot up the draft charts in recent weeks. He is a shot blocking specialist that will score and rebound. I project he will end up being a better player than Monroe or Aminu.

9. Utah (From New York via Phoenix)

There is a noticeable drop off between the top 8 and 9 through about 15. This is where the projecting gets a lot more difficult. I predict that Utah will take Cole Aldrich C Kansas. They need another big man to go with Paul Millsap because Carlos Boozer is a UFA and will leave. Aldrich is more physical than Millsap and will let the latter move to F.

10. Indiana

The Pacers would love to trade this pick for a proven vet PG. They don’t have a true starting quality PG on the roster and they will likely lose starting G Earl Watson to free agency. They have the 40th pick and might go PG there because there are no PGs rated high enough to be taken here. I’ll project Ed Davis PF North Carolina. He is a “2 and done” guy that looks better than he plays. He has talent but didn’t get it done on the floor for NC. Some are projecting Eric Bledsoe PG/SG Kentucky but he is not a true PG either.

11. New Orleans

NO would probably take Davis if he is on the board. If not they could go for Luke Babbitt SF/PF Nevada. He is a solid scorer and has the size and strength to play the 4 with the quickness to play the 3.

12. Memphis

The Griz could use a PG but like Indy is not likely to take one here. PG Mike Conley has not been bad but has not developed the way the team hoped having taken him with the 4th pick in 07. The big question is what will they do with RFA Rudy Gay? I predict they will resign him to play SF and go with Xavier Henry SG Kansas. That could move O.J. Mayo to PG. Henry is 6-6 and has an NBA body and good shooting range.

13. Toronto

Avery Bradley SG Texas is the choice here. At 6-3 180 he is a SG in the body of a PG but has great athleticism, body control and above average shooting range. He can play the PG on D but will let either Jarrett Jack or Sonny Weems bring the ball up the court.

14. Houston

There are a lot of possibilities here. The team might be interested in a C (in case they lose Yao Ming) or SG but the ones they like are gone. I think they go for Gordon Hayward SF Butler. He had a great tournament but he is athletically limited and can struggle to get his own shot. I think he will be a marginal player at best at the next level.

15. Milwaukee (From Chicago)

Patrick Patterson PF Kentucky could be the pick here but a SF could also be the choice. He doesn’t have the size to be a true 4 but doesn’t have the quickness to play the 3. He can shoot and they will need more scoring if they lose SG Michael Redd and the rest of the UFAs on the team.

16. Minnesota (From Denver via Charlotte)

A guy I like better than Patterson is Stanley Robinson SF UConn. He is a true SF with the quicks to play that on both ends of the floor. He is an above average athlete that worked hard on his 3 point accuracy. Most experts have him going later but I like him quite a bit.

17. Chicago (From Milwaukee)

The only question here is who can they pick that will be the biggest draw to bring LeBron James to the windy city? The problem for the Bulls is that they have a couple of limited big men in the starting lineup. PF Taj Gibson is not as athletic as you would like and C Joakim Noah is a head case of the first order. They should be looking for someone like Larry Sanders PF/C VCU. He is a physical blue collar guy that brings it every game. Instead they will probably go for James Anderson SG Oklahoma State. Anderson is a sharp shooting wing man that will protect them if they can’t get LJ and will open up the lane for Derrick Rose.

18. Miami

The rumor is that SG Dwayne Wade will go where ever LJ goes. If LJ goes to Chicago, Wade may not be able to follow. Either way, despite the fact that he has a player option to stay, he will go somewhere. That leaves a BIG hole at SG and the Heat will likely take Eric Bledsoe PG/SG Kentucky. The only problem is that he is too small to play SG on the D end of the floor. He does have a great stroke and will help replace the scoring if Wade goes.

19. Boston

During the finals, the old legs of the Celtics bigs showed. They need to get some young bigs that can stay with quicker opponents. For that reason, I think that Solomon Alabi C Florida St. will be the pick. Alabi has a couple of years under his belt at FSU and is a shot blocker. He needs a lot of coaching on the O end of the floor.

20. San Antonio

The Spurs need a wing man because Richard Jefferson has not worked out. They really like experienced players and will pick Damion James SF Texas. He is a 4 year guy with grit and toughness. He will fit nicely in the Spurs O and help on D.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.

The NBA Finals are going on. The NHL finals are on. And what is everyone talking about? Where will LeBron James be playing next season?

Everybody is talking to cab drivers that may or may not have given LeBron a ride to the airport to find out where he will sign. Don’t trust the rumors from cab drivers. If Cavs fans are going to go out on a limb all the way to the leaf stems, let’s do it at least with some logic.

My daughter is a great sports fan and always has some unique insights into the events of sports. In a conversation today, she came up with one very small thin silver lining on the dark cloud of LeBron’s free agency for Cavs fans.

In his one statement since the team’s season ended so abruptly, LeBron said that he would make a decision that would be the best for him and his family. So what might influence that decision?

The question that Kristina posed to me was what parent wouldn’t want to make the lives of their children better than their own childhood? The answer is clearly every parent wants the best for their children.

LeBron’s childhood was marked by moving around a lot. That was one thing that made his childhood very difficult. Now if he stays his wife and kids will avoid being uprooted. That would not only allow him to avoid for his kids the issues he faced as a child but would give Cav fans something about which to cheer. Frankly, that makes more sense than anything I have heard up to now as a basis upon which LeBron will make his decision.

Besides, where else could LeBron be the star player, head coach and general manager all at the same time? There is no question that owner Gilbert is all in over LeBron. Gilbert knows that the value of his team will fall from 400M to 280M without LeBron. Finally we have a financial crash that Washington D.C. had nothing to do with!!! Gilbert has cleared the decks of anyone that even though about giving LeBron a dirty look. Coach Brown? History! GM Ferry? Gone! The latest rumor is that Gilbert has offered Michigan State coach Izzo. Some media types are saying that Izzo is Gilbert’s choice not LeBron’s. Make no mistake–No coach will get an offer or an interview without the official LeBron Seal of Approval.

Don’t hold your breath about Izzo leaving a very comfortable job he can have for life to come to Cleveland. It is not likely to happen. In fact, it is very unlikely that any name brand coach will agree to come to Cleveland until LeBron is signed by the Cavs. However, LeBron will be unlikely to sign until he knows who the coach will be.

But even if he stays, the 2009-10 roster is not capable of winning a title. The Cavs need an athletic big man that can defend the pick and roll. They also need a reliable second scorer. Even the GREAT Michael Jordan needed Pipen to begin to win titles. LeBron needs a #2 guy.

There are a few things that Gilbert can do to get some help for LeBron. Cleveland is not going to ever be a mecca for top free agents even with LeBron under contract. The only choice that Gilbert has is to trade for either a veteran player under contract or a high draft choice. In both cases the player would have to come to Cleveland. In either case, Gilbert is going to have to give up more than just Mo Williams, Delonte West and his 1st pick. He is likely going to have to give away some of the young talent like J.J. Hickson or Anderson Varejao. The team is also likely to get stuck with a VERY bad contract in order to get a deal done.

Most of all, they need a coach to implement an O–any old O will do. Brown was a D coach but way too often, there was little D to show for it.

The O of the Cavs worked great when it went though Shaq. It worked great when it went through Jamison. When it was LeBron with the ball and the other 4 guys standing around watching him, the O died. Hopefully any new coach will realize that and not let it happen again on a regular basis.

That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on

http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/Author.cfm?AuthorID=1003 and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com.