Analysis: NBA Draft Value Score

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Analysis: NBA Draft Value Score

One thing that I have learned studying the NFL and NBA drafts for the last 50 years is that you can not ever evaluate how a team has done until at least 3 years after the fact. But in 2009 we are in an atmosphere of immediate reporting on the 24 hour sports news outlets. We don’t have 3 years to wait to see how our favorite team did.

There is a guide that I use after a draft to evaluate how much value each team got with each pick. By value I mean did they draft a player way too high or did they get a player that was projected much higher with a later pick. The former is a waste of draft choice value. The later is a high value pick.

This analysis is much more accurate in the NFL draft with 7 rounds plus compensation choices. Each team has more choices and thus a better chance of putting a deal together to get what they want. In the case of the NBA, we evaluate only really great values or really wasted picks (yes Cavs, we are talking about you).

To determine the ranking of the players I used 3 sites with their lists of the top 100 players. I did not use my own 150 ranking because I just have not watched enough BB to be competitive with the most respected sites. The the +/- is determined by subtracting the average of these 3 rankings from the actual draft position. I separate the first and second round because of the disparity of value and importance between the rounds.

So here goes:

First round best value picks

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First round worst value picks

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Because Eyenga was not on any of the three lists, the Cavs get the dunce cap for the worst reach in the first round.

Second round best values

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The worst reaches in the second round.

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Using this same system, here are the top 30 undrafted players coming to a team near you.

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That’s what I think. Tell me what you think.

Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on and edits .


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2 Responses to “Analysis: NBA Draft Value Score”


  1. Acai Ignite
    on Jun 29th, 2009
    @ 1:56 pm

    And we all thought you didn’t like Mullens.
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  2. gift ideas for teenage boys
    on Aug 17th, 2009
    @ 7:19 am

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